Pro Pundits - Simon

How holding on to your chips and transfers can lead to long-term FPL success

There is a lot of talk in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) community about the importance of patience and knowing when to act and when to wait is widely accepted as a crucial element of success.

But even a casual perusal of the desperate lamentations that echo across fantasy forums on a Saturday evening will illustrate that, while we fantasy managers often fail to act when we should, we very often act when we shouldn’t.

In fact, it’s very hard not to act, it feels good to act, especially after a bad Gameweek.

So why is patience such a virtue when it comes to fantasy football? What does science have to say about this? The answer might involve marshmallows.

The Marshmallow Experiment

Aside from perhaps the Stanford Prison and Milgram experiments (1971 & 1963 respectively), few psychological experiments have gained the notoriety of the Stanford Marshmallow Experiment (1972).

In this study, young children were sat in a room with a marshmallow placed in front of them and were told that they could eat the marshmallow now or, if they waited 15 minutes, they would be given a second marshmallow.

Inevitably, some of the children ate the first marshmallow while some avoided temptation long enough to receive the second marshmallow. And some of them just cried.

Salah benched as Matip returns for Liverpool's Palace visit

What was most interesting about the Marshmallow Experiment is that they followed up with the children 10 years later and found that those who had resisted eating the first marshmallow had largely scored better in their SATs, performed better in school generally and even had healthier BMIs.

While there is some debate as to why this correlation between the ability to delay gratification and these various measures of success should exist, it exists nonetheless.

Much like tomato ketchup and a certain Irish stout, good things come to those who wait.

While the results of the Marshmallow Experiment are still debated, the idea that there is a link between ability to delay gratification and improved prospects of success in humans has, for years, been supported by high profile and influential figures ranging from psychologist Jordan Peterson to motivational speaker Tony Robbins, both of whom, in fact, consider this ability to be among the most important indicators of success in both children and adults.

Applying the Theory to FPL

So can we as FPL managers learn anything from this?

Well, one very obvious parallel exists if you replace marshmallows with free transfers.

You can have two, but you have to avoid using the first one.

I’m a huge believer in saving the second transfer whenever possible and, while I’m not aware of any studies on the subject, I know that there is a fairly strong correlation between the success of my transfers, how well I’m doing in FPL generally and how often I’ve been able to carry a transfer.

The most obvious reason for why this might be is that, whereas with one transfer your options are limited to players within the same price bracket as the one you’re getting rid of, with two transfers you have far, far more options.

A second reason might be that waiting a gameweek to make two transfers instead of one per gameweek gives you more time to think and reduces the likelihood that you will make some sort of knee-jerk mistake that you end up regretting.

A similar principle could be applied to when you make your transfers. This season, perhaps more than any others, has shown the benefit of waiting as late as possible to make your changes.

It’s generally accepted that access to more, and more current information will typically improve decision quality and FPL is likely no exception.

Of course, being patient is easier said than done, especially off the back of a bad Gameweek where the temptation to make a change, any change, is huge.

Here, we might take a leaf out of the children of the Marshmallow Experiment’s book in that some, in an attempt to avoid temptation, simply put their hands over their eyes.

In an FPL context, this might mean avoiding looking at player prices or even spending too much time thinking about your next transfer until a day or two before the next Gameweek begins.

The principle of delaying gratification could equally apply to when you use your chips.

Serious FPL managers have long been distinguished by their tendency to keep their wildcards and chips until later in the season and, while it doesn’t always work out as intended, this approach confers all sorts of benefits including the opportunity to take advantage of Double Gameweeks, a typically higher team value to invest in players and more knowledge of who the best teams and players are.

Of course, there are also disadvantages to being patient.

Just as cautious cavemen in the Paleolithic Era were less likely to be eaten by sabre-tooth tigers, they were also less likely to find food themselves, particularly if they were too cautious.

The benefits of delaying action in FPL must always be weighed against the benefits of taking it and distinguishing which is the correct course and when, is and always has been a big part of the skill to this game.

However, knowing that a bias towards patience generally (be it natural or forced through will) is likely to produce better results overall, should be a positive step in the direction of making better and more deliberate FPL decisions.

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1,918 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Jon Snow
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 18 days ago

    Solid article. Normally my wait and see strategy (AKA forget about FPL till the last minute and panic transfer on the deadline) leaves me with terrible team value and a very mediocre mid season. This year it's paid dividends, currently at 40k my best ever OR. Maybe it's all the fraudulent injury claims from certain managers and cancelled games...?

    If I somehow make the top 10k at the end of the season I'll buy everyone a bag of marshmellows.

    1. Black Knights
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      Is that one bag of marshmallows to share between us? Or each?

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        I promise you a whole bag if you come to get it, don't worry 🙂

      2. Lord.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        I’ll take two bags next season.

    2. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      I guess every season is a bit different. Early in the season being aggressive helps to earn tv and those who aren't so hit averse can still benefit for making two transfers.

      This season, I don't know. Maybe I should have delayed my every transfer early in the season. And not only days, gameweeks more likely.

    3. PastaConcerto
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      I would rather have taken fewer hits...taken 6 so far but immediate points gains from transfers 137 so it has paid off mostly and my team value is quite a bit higher than my ML rivals. For me this year the captain blanks have hurt me the most from KDB and Salah. Usually I like to have 25% of my total points from captain but down to about 20% this season.

  2. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 18 days ago

    Benching Wilson reluctantly, GTG?

    Martinez
    Cancelo Stones Coufal
    KDB (TC) Bruno Rashford Son Soucek
    Martial Antonio

    Areola Wilson Holding Mitchell

    1. Benteke Fried Chicken
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      Not worried about KDB minutes?!. You’re actually 1 transfer away from a good bench boost!

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        Have already used BB. KDB starts both games for me but maybe managed minutes if one is comfortable.

    2. BeWater
        1 month, 18 days ago

        Very strong team so GTG. I think a lot of people will have bench points this gameweek. I'll have Raphinha, Dallas, McCarthy and Lowton!

      • Marcin the Pole
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        Martial may be injured. Keep tabs. No Liverpool not a worry?

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Can't have them all

          1. Marcin the Pole
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Agreed, but triple United and no Liverpool still seems a risky strategy.

      • PogBruno
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        Good to see the TC on KDB

        1. Benteke Fried Chicken
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          I’d join in but worried after him apparently being tired after the brighton match.

      • JONALDINHO
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        Why are people so reluctant to bench boost. Your bench can easily get 20+ pts. Just use it and get it out of the way. It’s not a good chip anyway

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Used it in GW1 for 20 points extra

      • Brehmeren
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        BB instead of TC

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Cheers but no BB left

    3. dsefton
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      DDG Areola
      Cancelo Stones Coufal Lowton (Tierney --> Cresswell?)
      KdB Bruno Rashford Soucek (Son --> Salah?)
      Wilson (Laca --> Watkins?) Bamford

      Assuming Tierney is out:
      A) Son + Laca + Tierney --> Salah + Watkins + Cresswell (-8) - can't do Antonio as would have 3 west ham already...
      B) Laca + Tierney --> Vardy + 4.6m def (-4)
      C) Tierney --> Cresswell (FT)
      D) Son + Laca + Tierney --> Salah + Antonio + 5.4m def (Justin?)
      E) Something else?

      1. jayzico
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        C

        1. dsefton
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          even with a BB not worth the -8?

      2. jayzico
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        No, actually B. But you can't afford a west ham def unfortunately unless MIB

        1. dsefton
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          any good DGW options at 4.6m or less?

          1. dsefton
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            i already have coufal, so one west ham def

    4. Sho-kun
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      What should I do? 1ft

      McCarthy
      Cancelo/Justin/Coufal
      Saka/Bowen/KDB(C)/Bruno
      Kane/Bamford/Laca

      Ryan/Neto/Coady/Mitchell

      for example:
      Coady/Bruno --> Salah/Def. for 4.8

    5. jayzico
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      Saka > Barnes, Mount or other DGWer. Got 7.4m

      1. Pep Roulette
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        Foden?

        1. jayzico
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Got 3 citeh

    6. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      Last Man Standing GW18 (1397 teams)

      Safety score = 34
      Top score = 71
      LMS average = 48.95 (-0.97) = 47.98

      126 teams removed, 1271 through to GW19

      9% or minimum 115 out next GW

      4557 teams entered this season.

      1. Daniel - WC Active
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        Still on for a win on this one 🙂 We are gonna celebrate a lot 🙂 hi 5

      2. Brehmeren
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        Wuhuu. Survived a -8 and no FH used.

    7. Marcin the Pole
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      Best budget mid for the next few weeks? (Own Soucek)

      A) Gundogan
      B) Lookman
      C) Cavaleiro
      D) McGinn?

      1. WG010692
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        A - Risk on 90 mins, but fixtures are great

      2. Silent Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        Lookman

      3. V-2 Schneiderlin
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        A - i've had Lookman for weeks now and he's done nothing

    8. rnrd
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      the chances Reece starts both DGW19 are small right?

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        If he's fit enough, I'd say the chance is higher than 50%. With Arsenal the exception (James & Chillwell weren't even fully fit) we've done poorly without our first choice back 4.

    9. Pep Roulette
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      Surely play Dallas over Targett? Covid uncertainty plus 4 YCs!

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        Will Newcastle score if he plays?

        1. Pep Roulette
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          What if he gets YC against City. 0 point in DGW likely then!

          1. TorresMagic™
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 11 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Might as well sell Bruno 😛

            1. Pep Roulette
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Haha good point

    10. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      Right, I think I'm saving my BB for another time.

      McCarthy
      Robertson / Cancelo / Coufal
      Salah / Fernandes / Son / Soucek / Raphinha
      Vardy / Bamford

      Forster // Alioski / Taylor* / DCL*

      A) McCarthy/DCL > Martinez/Antonio
      B) McCarthy/DCL > Martinez/Cavani
      C) McCarthy/Taylor > Martinez/Stones
      D) Forster/DCL > Martinez/Antonio

      All include benching Raphinha. C keeps DCL, who could then be back for NEW.

      D is more so for if I want to keep SOU coverage handy, but honestly SOU fixtures aren't all that across the next few weeks. This is why I feel McCarthy > Martinez is worthwhile (given fixtures & future doubles too.)

      Advice appreciated!

      1. BeWater
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Other than Martinez and TAA you have the exact same starting 11 as me! So I like A.

          1. Hazz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Ahh, the good ol' template. Thanks for the response.

            1. BeWater
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Nice to see someone else going with Robbo/TAA, Vardy and Son with no KDB.

                I brought Coufal and Antonio in a couple of days ago. Going to have to bench Raphinha unfortunately.

                1. Hazz
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  Silly ol' me sold KDB/Brewster for Soucek/Vardy (right before KDB did well again & a surprise MCI DGW appeared.)

                  Not unhappy with my selections here, but it is a risky one. Essentially Vardy/Soucek vs. KDB/[FWD].

                  Accept Son could blank again, but he's been very dangerous this season & highly owned so can hurt you.

                  Raphinha is someone I wouldn't have got if not for the original DGW. Got a goal from him and he may well be bench points this weekend... but hey-ho.

                  1. BeWater
                      1 month, 18 days ago

                      I was the same. Played my WC in 16 and took KDB out after owning him most of the season. Then City get a DGW. That's this season for you.

          2. Rash
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Who have west ham got to play upfront bar Antonio? Surely he can't play 180 mins!

            1. mynameisq
              • 7 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Plays could do 60, 70

            2. KAPTAIN KANE
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              70-75 in both, 90 if they’re struggling for the win/goals I think

            3. Sean
              • 11 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Presume Yarmolenko comes off the bench for him around 70 mins?

              1. Daniel - WC Active
                • 11 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                That hyped young dude

          3. sirmorbach
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Lads, what do you suggest here, please?

            McCarthy / Steer
            Robertson / Dias / Cresswell / Saïss /  Dallas
            Salah / Bruno / Son / Grealish / Soucek
            DCL / Watkins / Bamford

            1. sirmorbach
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Thinking of Steer and DCL to Martinez and Antonio, and then bench boost. Sounds reasonable?

            2. Jon Snow
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Similar position to my team, depends how much you want that City coverage and if you want to BB. I personally would go ahead with the BB

              DCL + Son >> playing fodder + KdB?

              Or if you're willing to take the hit do the above + downgrade Dallas.

              Alternatively I've been considering downgrading Robertson for a City Defender, depends how much value you have tied up.

              1. sirmorbach
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Thanks, Jon Snow!

          4. 03farmboy
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 18 days ago

            I have Salah, Bruno and De Bruyne

            But who’s best one to Triple captain this week??

            1. Daniel - WC Active
              • 11 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              KDB for me or avoid TC

              1. 03farmboy
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Why avoid triple captain??

          5. Daniel - WC Active
            • 11 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            I plan keeping both Kane and Son and forget Salah for now.

            Get him back in 22nd.

            Too risky? What you thinknabout the strategy?

            1. Mr. O'Connell
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              pretty risky, yeah.

            2. Traction Engine Foot
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Could work well, Liverpool don't look great atm.

            3. The Red Devil
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              I'm gonna have the trip + spurs duo, but with a few hits, hope it turns out ok

              1. Daniel - WC Active
                • 11 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                The only way I can get him is by 4pt hit

                Son / Rashford out for Salah Antonio

                1. The Red Devil
                  • 5 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  Yeah, wouldn't sell son/Rashford
                  My moves are
                  Grealish+ Taylor+ Bednarek -> Salah+ Mitchell+ coufal (-8)

          6. The Red Devil
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            A-Grealish+ Taylor+ Bednarek -> Salah+ Mitchell+ coufal (-8)
            Yay or nay
            B- Kdb TC- yay or nay

            1. The Road to Turfdom
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Yes, no

          7. umerlfc
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            You expect A to outscore B?

            A) Antonio + Foden
            B) Son + Raphinha + 4 points

            1. mynameisq
              • 7 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              If they start both games yes

          8. Mr. O'Connell
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Reasons for not using triple captain:

            I still can't decide who to captain between KDB and Salah. When selecting TC I want to have 'the feeling'. I'm pretty certain both players start both games (if they go ahead).
            Any game can be postponed at any time
            There will be more doubles (hopefully the Covid situation relents somewhat)

            1. KAPTAIN KANE
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Agree, also think the implications of COVID have a worse effect on BB.
              But it does feel a good opportunity to use one of the chips, so it’s TC by default for me

              1. Mr. O'Connell
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                luckily I never considered bench boost so deciding whether or not to BB Forster, Holding, Brewster and Mitchell is a no brainer for me!

                It's an opportunity for sure, my gut feeling is it could tank/I pick Salah who blanks twice and KDB scores 40 points. I'm not ready for that kind of punishment.

            2. Traction Engine Foot
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Yeah, I think I will save it, none of the candidates really stand out

          9. JONALDINHO
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Mane, DCL and Dallas to KDB, Antonio and Cancelo(-8)?

          10. LC1
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            I am soooo torn between Dias and Cancelo.

            Feel that Dias is definitely more nailed but Canceloismore explosive. Also have a feeling Cancelo is likely to be benched in 1 of his 2 games!

          11. Bubz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Whats Moyeseh saying?

            1. Mr. O'Connell
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              told the reporter to watch herself, or she might get a slap.

            2. Miguel Sanchez
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Fabianski wait and see, Balbuena still isolating

              1. Miguel Sanchez
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Moyes: "We've only had two players missing: Balbuena is isolating - he came in contact with somebody - but basically we're just about okay. We're waiting on Fabianski to see how he is, we're not sure yet, and Masuaku is probably a couple of months away from being involved again."

          12. the vanisher
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Would appreciate opinions on the below:

            Soucek and Foden IN for Smith Rowe - Son OUT (-4)

            Surely will benefit from DGW19 and long term as well?

            1. OneArseneWenger32
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              1 month, 18 days ago

              just keep son long term..unless u jumping off the train

          13. wulfranian
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            I used my FH now in gw18 and i am thinking to keep BB chip but i see that i can't combine " wc gw25/BB dgw26/good team for blank gw29".That's why i am leaning to use it now even for a -12 but with 15 dgw players.

            1. OneArseneWenger32
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              1 month, 18 days ago

              i'm not using it but if u do make sure you have all dgw players (or son, kane)

          14. Drogo
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Got a full 11-man squad for DGW.

            Because the footballs gods decided to punish me throughout this season I now got 3 leeds players on the bench, since they only have one fixture.

            Question: Do I still play BB-chip with Raphinha, Dallas Bamford and McCarthy on bench?

            1. mynameisq
              • 7 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Why wouldn't you, you don't need 15 doublers to bench boost

              1. Drogo
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                True, maybe shouldnt be too greedy.

          15. WG010692
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Gundogan mins over 2 games...?

            1. Hooky
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              153

          16. Bene_the_horse
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Hi all,

            Is the below worth a -8 hit? Want to get some Man City participation in my team ideally

            OUT - Bamford, Son and Chilwell

            IN - Brewster ( Benched ), KDB and Dias

            1. WG010692
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Not with Pep Roulette - Bamford could easily get double points at home to Brighton

          17. Gun gun
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Anybody on-8?

          18. Lost in fantasy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Any update on Fabianski?

          19. FPL Kaka
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            When is the absolute earliest we could get Spurs DGW?

            Considering selling Kane this week to fund some more doubles but don't want to if Spurs have a DGW imminently

          20. Firminoooo
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Please help me out. Thinking Balbuena, DCL and Mane to KdB, Cancelo and Antonio for -8 and BB. Is Mane to KdB for a hit worth it?

            Martinez x2 Johnstone x2
            Robertson x2 Chilwell x2 Cancelo x2 Dias x2 Coufal x2
            KdB x2 Salah x2 Bruno x2 Grealish x2 Soucek x2
            Antonio x2 Bamford Brewster

            BB: Johnstone x2, Coufal x2, Bamford, Brewster

          21. Sturridge Wars
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Which option?

            A) Son & Davis > Grealish & Wilson
            B) Son, Davis & Struijk > El Ghazi, Wilson & Chilwell ( -4)

            Johnstone
            Coufal / Dier / Dias
            Rashford / Son / KDB / Bruno / Soucek
            Kane / Bamford

            Bench: McCarthy, Holding, Struijk, Davis

            1. Firminoooo
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              B if BB