Spot the Differential

Differential Lowton can exploit Fulham and Palace’s weak left flanks in Double Gameweek 24

Gameweek 24 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Burnley, Chelsea and Fulham, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Matthew Lowton

  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: cry + FUL | WBA | tot | ARS | eve

Following the inclusion of Ben Mee (£5.0m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Matthew Lowton (£4.5m).

Owned by just over 2% of FPL managers, the full-back has impressed this year and took up his most advanced position of the season against Brighton and Hove Albion last time out. That was in part due to Graham Potter’s 3-4-1-2 shape, but the fact Lowton registered three shots and had more final-third touches than any other player on the pitch is encouraging. 

They were a little unfortunate to concede too, restricting their opponents to just two shots on target and 0.52 expected goals (xG).

It’s also worth pointing out that both of Burnley’s opponents in the forthcoming double, Crystal Palace and Fulham, have often looked vulnerable when defending the left-side of the pitch in recent matches. That is something Lowton and Johann Berg Gudmundsson (£5.4m), the Clarets only natural right-sided midfielder who is now available again after injury, will surely look to take advantage of.

Meanwhile, Burnley’s clean sheet prospects look promising, as the Eagles are set to be without talisman Wilfried Zaha (£7.1m) and have failed to score without him in the starting XI this season. Fulham aren’t exactly known for their goalscoring either, and though that could change if they can up their conversation rate, I think owners can go into this double optimistic that Sean Dyche’s side can return at least one clean sheet.

Lowton has upped his performance levels in recent weeks, and now adding more consistency to his game, could be a solid differential.

César Azpilicueta

  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £5.7m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: NEW | sou | MUN | EVE | lee

Prior to the departure of Frank Lampard, César Azpilicueta (£5.7m) was facing an uncertain future at Chelsea.

The Spaniard had fallen below Reece James (£5.0m) in the right-back pecking order, which limited him to just eight Premier League starts up until Gameweek 20. However, Azpilicueta was restored to the starting XI in Thomas Tuchel’s first match in charge against Wolverhampton Wanderers and has stayed there since.

In fact, the captain has played every top-flight minute under the German coach, and is clearly benefitting from his manager’s decision to play a 3-4-3 formation. Now stationed on the right of a back-three, a position he thrived in under Antonio Conte in the 2016/17 title winning campaign, Azpilicueta is averaging 7.25 points per game and posting some encouraging numbers. 

Over the last four Gameweeks, amongst all defenders, the 31-year-old ranks joint-fourth for created chances, sixth for penalty area touches and tenth for final-third touches. He even provided a goal in the 2-0 win over Burnley. 

During that run, Chelsea have given up just five shots on target and 1.98 expected goals conceded (xGC), the lowest total in the league, which has helped them deliver clean sheets against Wolves, Burnley and Tottenham Hotspur. The quality of their opponents should of course be considered, but regardless, it’s a positive sign so early in Tuchel’s reign.  

Azpilicueta is a real leader, and alongside Thiago Silva (£5.6m) and Antonio Rudiger (£4.6m), offers plenty of clean sheet potential in the coming weeks.

Antonee Robinson

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: eve + bur | SHU | cry | liv | MCI

23-year-old Antonee Robinson (£4.4m) joined Fulham from Wigan Athletic back in August, and has been one of their best performers since.

Though he is still waiting for his first attacking return of the season, his numbers are encouraging, and if Scott Parker’s side can step up and start converting their chances he could offer value at just £4.4m.

Since making his debut back in Gameweek 4, Robinson has shown himself to be effective in the final-third. 

Amongst all top-flight defenders, he ranks joint-seventh for created chances and final-third touches, eighth for crosses and second for successful take-ons. In fact, only Luke Ayling (£4.4m), João Cancelo (£6.0m), Ben White (£4.4m) and Azpilicuetahave a higher expected assist (xA) delta, which suggests he has been really unfortunate not to register a single assist.

The Cottagers goalless draw against West Ham United last time out leaves them 18th in the standings with 15 points, eight less than Burnley who are 17th. And though their Double Gameweek fixtures aren’t the easiest, their appeal is boosted by games to follow against Sheffield United and Crystal Palace. It’s also worth noting that they have a guaranteed fixture in Blank Gameweek 29, which could be useful for those who have already used the Free Hit chip.

Robinson has looked good since arriving in South London, and given the schedule, could be an effective budget differential.

avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/818/history”

1,526 Comments Post a Comment
  1. davewg59
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Just cant decide?
    Lowton 2 games
    or
    Son v City?

    1. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Lowton

    2. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Son

    3. Don Kloppeone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Probably Lowton

    4. Hiddenpaw
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Lowton

    5. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Lowton

    6. Pep Roulette
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Lowton

  2. Eh, just one more thing ...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Bednarek or Vestergaard?

    Looking to make my transfer this week to replace long term injured Justin ... other injury doubts too, so I want a playing defender this week, with the Soton double next week in mind.

    Just wonder who you think scores more in next three matches .., as neither will be there long term as I will probably wildcard in GW26 ...will have three Leeds for next week too.

    1. That Was Easy!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Names in hat. Both always look like scoring from a corner.

    2. Hiddenpaw
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Would KWP be a better pick?

      1. Eh, just one more thing ...
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        A good shout also ...

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      I'd go Vestergaard. Threat from set pieces.

      But I'd only do it if you have 2 FTs and have to use one.

      1. Eh, just one more thing ...
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Yes, was swaying his way as he seems to be back fit now, was a bigger threat Prior to his injury and is 200k cheaper ... thanks.

    4. BigBillyBass
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Dumb & dumber

    5. Eh, just one more thing ...
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Have Justin out ... Dias and Digne flagged (but expect them to play) ... Antonio flagged and DCL out of certainly the Fulham game ... so I need another fit player in for cover ... so thought might as well be someone for the double next week.

  3. That Was Easy!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    This lineup and bench looks a bit crazy for a second, but I think I have it right?

    Areola
    Cancelo Stones Shaw James Coufal
    Sterling (C) Bruno Grealish
    Bamford Antonio

    Martinez; Barnes, Son, DCL

    1. Hiddenpaw
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Yep, I think it's right. Im going 5 at the back too this week. Frist timer club!

    2. jia you (The No BS League -…
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      DCL and Son over Bamford and Coufal/James for me every time this GW

      1. That Was Easy!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        I just can’t see myself playing anyone against City at this point. Chelsea and WHU much more likely to keep a cleanie than either of them are to score.

      2. Avery
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        8 months, 16 days ago

        No way. DCL and Son both 1 game against M.City. DCL half busted. Coufal got better odds of a clean sheet points that either the benchers scoring.

      3. Hiddenpaw
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Disagree with DCL over Bamford, one game against city when not fit is not for me. Son is a toss up, he can haul in any game.

        1. jia you (The No BS League -…
          • 5 Years
          8 months, 16 days ago

          fair enough

  4. NateDog
    • 1 Year
    8 months, 16 days ago

    So is Aguero actually finally fit? I know Pep is pretty bad with injury info normally but he said he's trained twice now, and then went on to list the players that are definitively out.

    "I think except Fernandinho, Nathan (Ake), Kevin, the rest of the first team squad are available."

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Doesn't sound match fit to me.

  5. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Which chip strategy do you recommend for the upcoming DGWs with this team?

    No WC, but have FH, BB and TC.

  6. sirmorbach
    • 5 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Friends, please: am I GTG, i.e. safe saving my ft?

    Pope
    Dias*, Stones, Digne*, Cresswell
    Salah, Bruno, Grealish, Gündogan
    Watkins, Antonio*

    Martinez, Soucek, Dallas, DCL

    1. Neves say Neves
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      I think I would start Soucek or Dallas over Watkins. Can't see villa scoring vs Brighton

      1. sirmorbach
        • 5 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Cheers!

    2. Don Kloppeone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      G2G

      1. sirmorbach
        • 5 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Cheers, sir!

    3. Avery
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      8 months, 16 days ago

      GTG Keep as is. Watkins is on form. Right bench order IMO.

      1. sirmorbach
        • 5 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Appreciate it!

  7. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Pope all right, would you bring him in or Richarlison? WC next week most likely so ...

    1. Rolls-Royce
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Looks like Richa is back in form

  8. Neves say Neves
    • 3 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Need to buy a defender (any price)

    A) Shaw
    B) Mee (already have Pope)
    C) Rudiger (boring?)
    D) Targett (probably loads of doubles coming up)
    E) Dunk?
    F) Other

    Any thoughts?

    1. Bobby_Baggio
      • 10 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      B

  9. Don Kloppeone
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Two questions for you fine gents:

    1. Robbo >
    A) Shaw (wba, NEW, che)
    B) Lowton (cry, FUL, WBA, tot)

    2. Which 2 to bench?!
    A) DCL
    B) Son
    C) Soucek
    D) Antonio
    E) Bamford
    F) Coufal

    2FT 1.2itb
    Pope
    Dias, Stones, Coufal
    Salah, Bruno, Gundo (C), Son
    DCL*, Bamford, Antonio
    (Martinez) (Soucek, Robbo*, Dallas)

    Cheers and GL all!

    1. Bobby_Baggio
      • 10 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      B
      A & B

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Thanks mate!

    2. Neves say Neves
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      A
      A B

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Cheers!

        Shaw is who I'm leaning towards also

    3. MOTHRA
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      I had same dilemma. I went with volume vs. Fixture and picked Lowton.

  10. Bobby_Baggio
    • 10 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Morning all. 2FT and 3.3m ITB. Unsure which transfer. Justin is obvious one to Burnley and double up? Any ideas?

    Pope
    Dias - Coufal - Stones
    Salah - Gundo - Bruno - Son - Soucek
    Bam - Antonio

    (McCarthy) - DCL - Alioski - Justin

    1. Neves say Neves
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      I'm in need of a defender too. What are your thoughts on Shaw?

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 10 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        He is in good shape but I prefer Burnley over Shaw. Next two for Shaw are great though

    2. Don Kloppeone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Justin to Lowton or Shaw and you're good

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 10 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Cheers

  11. Rolls-Royce
    • 7 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    If you still have FH left, does BGW29 look like the ideal time to use it?

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      If many fixtures, yes, but maby you can get more points out of it in dgw 26 or other dgws?

      1. Rolls-Royce
        • 7 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Interesting. Cheers.

    2. AC/DC AFC
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      The fewer the fixtures the more powerful it is.

      Looking at which clubs and fixtures are out it will be tricky for most teams to bridge gw29 without.

  12. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
    • 5 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Would Bamford to Watkins be something that you would consider in GW26? Thing is I would want Bamford back for 29...

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 2 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      I’m benching Bamford

  13. Pep Roulette
    • 4 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    A. Save FT & save BB for later

    B. DCL & Mitchell to Ings & Mee for -4 & BB this week

    AREOLA
    CANCELO Maguire Coufal
    STERLING(C) GUNDOGAN Bruno Son Raphinha
    Bamford Antonio

    Martinez Targett DCL* Mitchell

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      No FH or WC remaining

    2. Neves say Neves
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Save

    3. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Save

    4. The journey out of the 1mil
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      That team is beautiful

    5. Pep Roulette
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Cheers everyone

  14. Jet5605
    • 7 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Chances Cancelo plays both games?

    1. Tinkermania
      • 2 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      I reckon 60%

  15. The journey out of the 1mil
    • 4 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Salah and Cancelo out for Sterling C and lowton for a -4?. So tempting

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Does it have to be Cancelo out?

      1. The journey out of the 1mil
        • 4 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Dias instead? I had him since he was 5.6

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 2 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      No. Keep your city defenders ffs

      1. The journey out of the 1mil
        • 4 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        I guess that's sensible. Will assess later

  16. Weilong7
    • 5 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    1) McCarthy to Pope?
    2) Targett to Mee or any Burnley defender?

    Player not transferred might play.

    McCarthy 4.0
    Targett Dias Cancelo Coufual 3.8
    Bruno Salah Grealish Soucek Gundogan
    Antonio Bamford DCL

    4-4-2 with targett or 3-5-2 with DCL benched? Thanks

  17. Jet5605
    • 7 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Have decided not to WC yet as I think my squad is decent. Best Justin replacement?

    A - Dias
    B - Cancelo
    C - Mee
    D - Shaw
    E - Digne

    Pope
    Stones - Justin - Coufal
    Salah - Bruno - Soucek - Gundo - Raphinha
    Antonio - Bamford

    Martinez - Robbo - Dallas - DCL

  18. Whazza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Richarlison looked great vs Spurs in the cup, worth moving DCL out for him and C?

    1. estheblessed
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      He has looked good.

    2. Hiddenpaw
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Bring him in, yes, captain, I dont think so.

      1. Whazza
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Worry with City guys is they might only start one...

  19. estheblessed
    • 6 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    All good here? Or should I be taking a hit? I was actually think may be a Burnley defender OR Rashford for Barnes.

    Pope
    Stones, Cancello, Shaw
    Gundo(c), Grealish, Bruno, Salah
    DCL, Bamford, Antonio

    Martinez, Barnes, Alioski, Dier

  20. sk24
    • 3 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Start Son or Rüdiger?

    1. sk24
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      I'm on Son

    2. CR7 is Home
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Rudiger if Dias is playing

  21. Peter Ouch
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Is mourinho having a press conference?

  22. Stimps
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    What are people doing who have no FH, but WC and BB available?

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Asking this question a lot.

    2. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      My team for reference:

      Pope
      Cancelo / Stones/ Digne / Coufal
      Salah / Fernandes / Gundogan / Soucek
      Bamford / Antonio

      Martinez // DCL* / Raphinha / Mitchell

      1 FT. I'm looking at Mitchell > BUR defender. I'd have played DCL this week an maybe BB'd. Him being out is an annoyance, so I'm looking at a FWD I can bring in (-4) to take advantage and still BB.

      Might bring in Cavani, because he satisfies the next two.

      Then I would WC in 26, keeping some Leeds benched etc to prepare for GW29.

      Maybe I'll play the TC in 25. I'm not sure how I feel about not playing TC in 26 yet.

  23. Tsparkes10
    • 3 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Thoughts on Salah, DCL to Sterling, Cavani?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Like it

    2. The 12th Man
      • 8 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Decent

  24. moz_1983
    • 9 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Anyone else still struggling on who to start: Soucek or Bamford?

    1. CR7 is Home
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Bamford for me

      1. moz_1983
        • 9 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Currently on that as well, but Soucek against SU tho... :/

  25. CR7 is Home
    • 4 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    FPL has updated the injury status for DCL and Justin based on the pressers but still has the same 75% for Dias and Digne. Any reason for this?

    1. Threat Level Midnight
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Because flags are useless

    2. Tinkermania
      • 2 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Because they still have a 75% chance.

  26. Gudjohnsen
    • 4 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Why is Richarlisom suddenly a good option?

    Just looked at his returns and they are awful.

    1. Scholes Out Forever
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      had a great game against Tottenham, will play striker, short term punt

  27. Atimis
    • 5 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Should I sell both DCL and Justin?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Depends on your team, the number of FTs and your plan for future GWs.

  28. The Wogmeister
    • 1 Year
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Antonio and Dias passed to play. Chances both start (and Dias starting both games)?

  29. fish&chips
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Pope*,
    Mee*, Dias*, cancelo*, digne*
    Bruno, rashford, gundo*
    DCL*, Bamford, antonio

    Martinez (BHA), coufal (SHU), bowen (SHU), ESR (LEE)

    1 FT, 7M ITB

    Want to bench boost to get it out the way. Will WC in 26.

    A) DCL -> Rich / Ings / Cavani
    B) DCL & ESR -> Rich / Ings / Cavani & Lookman (-4)
    C) something else

    1. northernmuppet
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      A) for me.. Ings. You are well covered with Bruno and Rashy

      1. fish&chips
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Thanks mate

  30. northernmuppet
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    A)Stones/Chilwell/Soucek -> Lawton/Dallas/Sterling for -4?

    B)Stones/Grealish -> Lawton/Sterling

    A) is preferred and Leaves me:

    Martinez (McCarthy)
    Mee/Lawton/Cancelo (Targett) (Dallas)
    Grealish/Sterling/Gungo/Bruno/Salah
    Bamford/Antonio (DCL)

    I need to make the -4 to get Sterling in. My thinking is Grealish and DCL are holds with double gameweeks coming up and Grealish possible haul vs Arsenal and getting Dallas in works ahead of DGW next week.

    Of course you may tell me Soucek vs SHU is better than Grealish and saves the -4..

    What do you think guys?

    1. fish&chips
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      I think it depends if you're planning to WC soon or not. If no, A is the best long term move for me