Spot the Differential

Differential Lowton can exploit Fulham and Palace’s weak left flanks in Double Gameweek 24

Gameweek 24 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Burnley, Chelsea and Fulham, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Matthew Lowton

  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: cry + FUL | WBA | tot | ARS | eve

Following the inclusion of Ben Mee (£5.0m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Matthew Lowton (£4.5m).

Owned by just over 2% of FPL managers, the full-back has impressed this year and took up his most advanced position of the season against Brighton and Hove Albion last time out. That was in part due to Graham Potter’s 3-4-1-2 shape, but the fact Lowton registered three shots and had more final-third touches than any other player on the pitch is encouraging. 

They were a little unfortunate to concede too, restricting their opponents to just two shots on target and 0.52 expected goals (xG).

It’s also worth pointing out that both of Burnley’s opponents in the forthcoming double, Crystal Palace and Fulham, have often looked vulnerable when defending the left-side of the pitch in recent matches. That is something Lowton and Johann Berg Gudmundsson (£5.4m), the Clarets only natural right-sided midfielder who is now available again after injury, will surely look to take advantage of.

Meanwhile, Burnley’s clean sheet prospects look promising, as the Eagles are set to be without talisman Wilfried Zaha (£7.1m) and have failed to score without him in the starting XI this season. Fulham aren’t exactly known for their goalscoring either, and though that could change if they can up their conversation rate, I think owners can go into this double optimistic that Sean Dyche’s side can return at least one clean sheet.

Lowton has upped his performance levels in recent weeks, and now adding more consistency to his game, could be a solid differential.

César Azpilicueta

  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £5.7m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: NEW | sou | MUN | EVE | lee

Prior to the departure of Frank Lampard, César Azpilicueta (£5.7m) was facing an uncertain future at Chelsea.

The Spaniard had fallen below Reece James (£5.0m) in the right-back pecking order, which limited him to just eight Premier League starts up until Gameweek 20. However, Azpilicueta was restored to the starting XI in Thomas Tuchel’s first match in charge against Wolverhampton Wanderers and has stayed there since.

In fact, the captain has played every top-flight minute under the German coach, and is clearly benefitting from his manager’s decision to play a 3-4-3 formation. Now stationed on the right of a back-three, a position he thrived in under Antonio Conte in the 2016/17 title winning campaign, Azpilicueta is averaging 7.25 points per game and posting some encouraging numbers. 

Over the last four Gameweeks, amongst all defenders, the 31-year-old ranks joint-fourth for created chances, sixth for penalty area touches and tenth for final-third touches. He even provided a goal in the 2-0 win over Burnley. 

During that run, Chelsea have given up just five shots on target and 1.98 expected goals conceded (xGC), the lowest total in the league, which has helped them deliver clean sheets against Wolves, Burnley and Tottenham Hotspur. The quality of their opponents should of course be considered, but regardless, it’s a positive sign so early in Tuchel’s reign.  

Azpilicueta is a real leader, and alongside Thiago Silva (£5.6m) and Antonio Rudiger (£4.6m), offers plenty of clean sheet potential in the coming weeks.

Antonee Robinson

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: eve + bur | SHU | cry | liv | MCI

23-year-old Antonee Robinson (£4.4m) joined Fulham from Wigan Athletic back in August, and has been one of their best performers since.

Though he is still waiting for his first attacking return of the season, his numbers are encouraging, and if Scott Parker’s side can step up and start converting their chances he could offer value at just £4.4m.

Since making his debut back in Gameweek 4, Robinson has shown himself to be effective in the final-third. 

Amongst all top-flight defenders, he ranks joint-seventh for created chances and final-third touches, eighth for crosses and second for successful take-ons. In fact, only Luke Ayling (£4.4m), João Cancelo (£6.0m), Ben White (£4.4m) and Azpilicuetahave a higher expected assist (xA) delta, which suggests he has been really unfortunate not to register a single assist.

The Cottagers goalless draw against West Ham United last time out leaves them 18th in the standings with 15 points, eight less than Burnley who are 17th. And though their Double Gameweek fixtures aren’t the easiest, their appeal is boosted by games to follow against Sheffield United and Crystal Palace. It’s also worth noting that they have a guaranteed fixture in Blank Gameweek 29, which could be useful for those who have already used the Free Hit chip.

Robinson has looked good since arriving in South London, and given the schedule, could be an effective budget differential.

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1,526 Comments Post a Comment
  1. davewg59
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 10 days ago

    Just cant decide?
    Lowton 2 games
    or
    Son v City?

    1. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Lowton

    2. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Son

    3. Don Kloppeone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Probably Lowton

    4. Hiddenpaw
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Lowton

    5. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Lowton

    6. Pep Roulette
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Lowton

  2. Eh, just one more thing ...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 months, 10 days ago

    Bednarek or Vestergaard?

    Looking to make my transfer this week to replace long term injured Justin ... other injury doubts too, so I want a playing defender this week, with the Soton double next week in mind.

    Just wonder who you think scores more in next three matches .., as neither will be there long term as I will probably wildcard in GW26 ...will have three Leeds for next week too.

    1. That Was Easy!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Names in hat. Both always look like scoring from a corner.

    2. Hiddenpaw
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Would KWP be a better pick?

      1. Eh, just one more thing ...
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        A good shout also ...

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      I'd go Vestergaard. Threat from set pieces.

      But I'd only do it if you have 2 FTs and have to use one.

      1. Eh, just one more thing ...
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Yes, was swaying his way as he seems to be back fit now, was a bigger threat Prior to his injury and is 200k cheaper ... thanks.

    4. BigBillyBass
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Dumb & dumber

    5. Eh, just one more thing ...
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Have Justin out ... Dias and Digne flagged (but expect them to play) ... Antonio flagged and DCL out of certainly the Fulham game ... so I need another fit player in for cover ... so thought might as well be someone for the double next week.

  3. That Was Easy!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 10 days ago

    This lineup and bench looks a bit crazy for a second, but I think I have it right?

    Areola
    Cancelo Stones Shaw James Coufal
    Sterling (C) Bruno Grealish
    Bamford Antonio

    Martinez; Barnes, Son, DCL

    1. Hiddenpaw
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Yep, I think it's right. Im going 5 at the back too this week. Frist timer club!

    2. jia you jia you
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      DCL and Son over Bamford and Coufal/James for me every time this GW

      1. That Was Easy!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        I just can’t see myself playing anyone against City at this point. Chelsea and WHU much more likely to keep a cleanie than either of them are to score.

      2. Avery
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 10 days ago

        No way. DCL and Son both 1 game against M.City. DCL half busted. Coufal got better odds of a clean sheet points that either the benchers scoring.

      3. Hiddenpaw
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Disagree with DCL over Bamford, one game against city when not fit is not for me. Son is a toss up, he can haul in any game.

        1. jia you jia you
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          4 months, 10 days ago

          fair enough

  4. NateDogsCats
      4 months, 10 days ago

      So is Aguero actually finally fit? I know Pep is pretty bad with injury info normally but he said he's trained twice now, and then went on to list the players that are definitively out.

      "I think except Fernandinho, Nathan (Ake), Kevin, the rest of the first team squad are available."

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Doesn't sound match fit to me.

    • RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Which chip strategy do you recommend for the upcoming DGWs with this team?

      No WC, but have FH, BB and TC.

    • sirmorbach
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Friends, please: am I GTG, i.e. safe saving my ft?

      Pope
      Dias*, Stones, Digne*, Cresswell
      Salah, Bruno, Grealish, Gündogan
      Watkins, Antonio*

      Martinez, Soucek, Dallas, DCL

      1. Neves say Neves
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        I think I would start Soucek or Dallas over Watkins. Can't see villa scoring vs Brighton

        1. sirmorbach
          • 5 Years
          4 months, 10 days ago

          Cheers!

      2. Don Kloppeone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        G2G

        1. sirmorbach
          • 5 Years
          4 months, 10 days ago

          Cheers, sir!

      3. Avery
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 10 days ago

        GTG Keep as is. Watkins is on form. Right bench order IMO.

        1. sirmorbach
          • 5 Years
          4 months, 10 days ago

          Appreciate it!

    • Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Pope all right, would you bring him in or Richarlison? WC next week most likely so ...

      1. Rolls-Royce
        • 7 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Looks like Richa is back in form

    • Neves say Neves
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Need to buy a defender (any price)

      A) Shaw
      B) Mee (already have Pope)
      C) Rudiger (boring?)
      D) Targett (probably loads of doubles coming up)
      E) Dunk?
      F) Other

      Any thoughts?

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 10 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        B

    • Don Kloppeone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Two questions for you fine gents:

      1. Robbo >
      A) Shaw (wba, NEW, che)
      B) Lowton (cry, FUL, WBA, tot)

      2. Which 2 to bench?!
      A) DCL
      B) Son
      C) Soucek
      D) Antonio
      E) Bamford
      F) Coufal

      2FT 1.2itb
      Pope
      Dias, Stones, Coufal
      Salah, Bruno, Gundo (C), Son
      DCL*, Bamford, Antonio
      (Martinez) (Soucek, Robbo*, Dallas)

      Cheers and GL all!

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 10 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        B
        A & B

        1. Don Kloppeone
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          4 months, 10 days ago

          Thanks mate!

      2. Neves say Neves
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        A
        A B

        1. Don Kloppeone
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          4 months, 10 days ago

          Cheers!

          Shaw is who I'm leaning towards also

      3. MOTHRA
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        I had same dilemma. I went with volume vs. Fixture and picked Lowton.

    • Bobby_Baggio
      • 10 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Morning all. 2FT and 3.3m ITB. Unsure which transfer. Justin is obvious one to Burnley and double up? Any ideas?

      Pope
      Dias - Coufal - Stones
      Salah - Gundo - Bruno - Son - Soucek
      Bam - Antonio

      (McCarthy) - DCL - Alioski - Justin

      1. Neves say Neves
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        I'm in need of a defender too. What are your thoughts on Shaw?

        1. Bobby_Baggio
          • 10 Years
          4 months, 10 days ago

          He is in good shape but I prefer Burnley over Shaw. Next two for Shaw are great though

      2. Don Kloppeone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Justin to Lowton or Shaw and you're good

        1. Bobby_Baggio
          • 10 Years
          4 months, 10 days ago

          Cheers

    • Rolls-Royce
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      If you still have FH left, does BGW29 look like the ideal time to use it?

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        If many fixtures, yes, but maby you can get more points out of it in dgw 26 or other dgws?

        1. Rolls-Royce
          • 7 Years
          4 months, 10 days ago

          Interesting. Cheers.

      2. AC/DC AFC
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        The fewer the fixtures the more powerful it is.

        Looking at which clubs and fixtures are out it will be tricky for most teams to bridge gw29 without.

    • ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Would Bamford to Watkins be something that you would consider in GW26? Thing is I would want Bamford back for 29...

      1. Pukki Blinders
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 10 days ago

        I’m benching Bamford

    • Pep Roulette
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      A. Save FT & save BB for later

      B. DCL & Mitchell to Ings & Mee for -4 & BB this week

      AREOLA
      CANCELO Maguire Coufal
      STERLING(C) GUNDOGAN Bruno Son Raphinha
      Bamford Antonio

      Martinez Targett DCL* Mitchell

      1. Pep Roulette
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        No FH or WC remaining

      2. Neves say Neves
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Save

      3. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Save

      4. The journey out of the 1mil
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        That team is beautiful

      5. Pep Roulette
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Cheers everyone

    • Jet5605
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Chances Cancelo plays both games?

      1. Tinkermania
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 10 days ago

        I reckon 60%

    • The journey out of the 1mil
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Salah and Cancelo out for Sterling C and lowton for a -4?. So tempting

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Does it have to be Cancelo out?

        1. The journey out of the 1mil
          • 4 Years
          4 months, 10 days ago

          Dias instead? I had him since he was 5.6

      2. Pukki Blinders
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 10 days ago

        No. Keep your city defenders ffs

        1. The journey out of the 1mil
          • 4 Years
          4 months, 10 days ago

          I guess that's sensible. Will assess later

    • Weilong7
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      1) McCarthy to Pope?
      2) Targett to Mee or any Burnley defender?

      Player not transferred might play.

      McCarthy 4.0
      Targett Dias Cancelo Coufual 3.8
      Bruno Salah Grealish Soucek Gundogan
      Antonio Bamford DCL

      4-4-2 with targett or 3-5-2 with DCL benched? Thanks

    • Jet5605
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Have decided not to WC yet as I think my squad is decent. Best Justin replacement?

      A - Dias
      B - Cancelo
      C - Mee
      D - Shaw
      E - Digne

      Pope
      Stones - Justin - Coufal
      Salah - Bruno - Soucek - Gundo - Raphinha
      Antonio - Bamford

      Martinez - Robbo - Dallas - DCL

    • Whazza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Richarlison looked great vs Spurs in the cup, worth moving DCL out for him and C?

      1. estheblessed
        • 6 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        He has looked good.

      2. Hiddenpaw
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Bring him in, yes, captain, I dont think so.

        1. Whazza
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          4 months, 10 days ago

          Worry with City guys is they might only start one...

    • estheblessed
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      All good here? Or should I be taking a hit? I was actually think may be a Burnley defender OR Rashford for Barnes.

      Pope
      Stones, Cancello, Shaw
      Gundo(c), Grealish, Bruno, Salah
      DCL, Bamford, Antonio

      Martinez, Barnes, Alioski, Dier

    • sk24
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Start Son or Rüdiger?

      1. sk24
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        I'm on Son

      2. PogBruno
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Rudiger if Dias is playing

    • Peter Ouch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Is mourinho having a press conference?

    • Stimps
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      What are people doing who have no FH, but WC and BB available?

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Asking this question a lot.

      2. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        My team for reference:

        Pope
        Cancelo / Stones/ Digne / Coufal
        Salah / Fernandes / Gundogan / Soucek
        Bamford / Antonio

        Martinez // DCL* / Raphinha / Mitchell

        1 FT. I'm looking at Mitchell > BUR defender. I'd have played DCL this week an maybe BB'd. Him being out is an annoyance, so I'm looking at a FWD I can bring in (-4) to take advantage and still BB.

        Might bring in Cavani, because he satisfies the next two.

        Then I would WC in 26, keeping some Leeds benched etc to prepare for GW29.

        Maybe I'll play the TC in 25. I'm not sure how I feel about not playing TC in 26 yet.

    • Tsparkes10
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Thoughts on Salah, DCL to Sterling, Cavani?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Like it

      2. The 12th Man
        • 7 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Decent

    • moz_1983
      • 8 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Anyone else still struggling on who to start: Soucek or Bamford?

      1. PogBruno
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Bamford for me

        1. moz_1983
          • 8 Years
          4 months, 10 days ago

          Currently on that as well, but Soucek against SU tho... :/

    • PogBruno
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      FPL has updated the injury status for DCL and Justin based on the pressers but still has the same 75% for Dias and Digne. Any reason for this?

      1. Threat Level Midnight
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Because flags are useless

      2. Tinkermania
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Because they still have a 75% chance.

    • Gudjohnsen
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Why is Richarlisom suddenly a good option?

      Just looked at his returns and they are awful.

      1. Scholes Out Forever
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        had a great game against Tottenham, will play striker, short term punt

    • Atimis
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 10 days ago

      Should I sell both DCL and Justin?

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Depends on your team, the number of FTs and your plan for future GWs.

    • The Wogmeister
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Antonio and Dias passed to play. Chances both start (and Dias starting both games)?

      • fish&chips
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Pope*,
        Mee*, Dias*, cancelo*, digne*
        Bruno, rashford, gundo*
        DCL*, Bamford, antonio

        Martinez (BHA), coufal (SHU), bowen (SHU), ESR (LEE)

        1 FT, 7M ITB

        Want to bench boost to get it out the way. Will WC in 26.

        A) DCL -> Rich / Ings / Cavani
        B) DCL & ESR -> Rich / Ings / Cavani & Lookman (-4)
        C) something else

        1. northernmuppet
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          4 months, 10 days ago

          A) for me.. Ings. You are well covered with Bruno and Rashy

          1. fish&chips
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            4 months, 10 days ago

            Thanks mate

      • northernmuppet
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 months, 10 days ago

        A)Stones/Chilwell/Soucek -> Lawton/Dallas/Sterling for -4?

        B)Stones/Grealish -> Lawton/Sterling

        A) is preferred and Leaves me:

        Martinez (McCarthy)
        Mee/Lawton/Cancelo (Targett) (Dallas)
        Grealish/Sterling/Gungo/Bruno/Salah
        Bamford/Antonio (DCL)

        I need to make the -4 to get Sterling in. My thinking is Grealish and DCL are holds with double gameweeks coming up and Grealish possible haul vs Arsenal and getting Dallas in works ahead of DGW next week.

        Of course you may tell me Soucek vs SHU is better than Grealish and saves the -4..

        What do you think guys?

        1. fish&chips
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          4 months, 10 days ago

          I think it depends if you're planning to WC soon or not. If no, A is the best long term move for me