Spot the Differential

Differential Lowton can exploit Fulham and Palace’s weak left flanks in Double Gameweek 24

Gameweek 24 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Burnley, Chelsea and Fulham, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Matthew Lowton

  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: cry + FUL | WBA | tot | ARS | eve

Following the inclusion of Ben Mee (£5.0m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Matthew Lowton (£4.5m).

Owned by just over 2% of FPL managers, the full-back has impressed this year and took up his most advanced position of the season against Brighton and Hove Albion last time out. That was in part due to Graham Potter’s 3-4-1-2 shape, but the fact Lowton registered three shots and had more final-third touches than any other player on the pitch is encouraging. 

They were a little unfortunate to concede too, restricting their opponents to just two shots on target and 0.52 expected goals (xG).

It’s also worth pointing out that both of Burnley’s opponents in the forthcoming double, Crystal Palace and Fulham, have often looked vulnerable when defending the left-side of the pitch in recent matches. That is something Lowton and Johann Berg Gudmundsson (£5.4m), the Clarets only natural right-sided midfielder who is now available again after injury, will surely look to take advantage of.

Meanwhile, Burnley’s clean sheet prospects look promising, as the Eagles are set to be without talisman Wilfried Zaha (£7.1m) and have failed to score without him in the starting XI this season. Fulham aren’t exactly known for their goalscoring either, and though that could change if they can up their conversation rate, I think owners can go into this double optimistic that Sean Dyche’s side can return at least one clean sheet.

Lowton has upped his performance levels in recent weeks, and now adding more consistency to his game, could be a solid differential.

César Azpilicueta

  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £5.7m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: NEW | sou | MUN | EVE | lee

Prior to the departure of Frank Lampard, César Azpilicueta (£5.7m) was facing an uncertain future at Chelsea.

The Spaniard had fallen below Reece James (£5.0m) in the right-back pecking order, which limited him to just eight Premier League starts up until Gameweek 20. However, Azpilicueta was restored to the starting XI in Thomas Tuchel’s first match in charge against Wolverhampton Wanderers and has stayed there since.

In fact, the captain has played every top-flight minute under the German coach, and is clearly benefitting from his manager’s decision to play a 3-4-3 formation. Now stationed on the right of a back-three, a position he thrived in under Antonio Conte in the 2016/17 title winning campaign, Azpilicueta is averaging 7.25 points per game and posting some encouraging numbers. 

Over the last four Gameweeks, amongst all defenders, the 31-year-old ranks joint-fourth for created chances, sixth for penalty area touches and tenth for final-third touches. He even provided a goal in the 2-0 win over Burnley. 

During that run, Chelsea have given up just five shots on target and 1.98 expected goals conceded (xGC), the lowest total in the league, which has helped them deliver clean sheets against Wolves, Burnley and Tottenham Hotspur. The quality of their opponents should of course be considered, but regardless, it’s a positive sign so early in Tuchel’s reign.  

Azpilicueta is a real leader, and alongside Thiago Silva (£5.6m) and Antonio Rudiger (£4.6m), offers plenty of clean sheet potential in the coming weeks.

Antonee Robinson

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: eve + bur | SHU | cry | liv | MCI

23-year-old Antonee Robinson (£4.4m) joined Fulham from Wigan Athletic back in August, and has been one of their best performers since.

Though he is still waiting for his first attacking return of the season, his numbers are encouraging, and if Scott Parker’s side can step up and start converting their chances he could offer value at just £4.4m.

Since making his debut back in Gameweek 4, Robinson has shown himself to be effective in the final-third. 

Amongst all top-flight defenders, he ranks joint-seventh for created chances and final-third touches, eighth for crosses and second for successful take-ons. In fact, only Luke Ayling (£4.4m), João Cancelo (£6.0m), Ben White (£4.4m) and Azpilicuetahave a higher expected assist (xA) delta, which suggests he has been really unfortunate not to register a single assist.

The Cottagers goalless draw against West Ham United last time out leaves them 18th in the standings with 15 points, eight less than Burnley who are 17th. And though their Double Gameweek fixtures aren’t the easiest, their appeal is boosted by games to follow against Sheffield United and Crystal Palace. It’s also worth noting that they have a guaranteed fixture in Blank Gameweek 29, which could be useful for those who have already used the Free Hit chip.

Robinson has looked good since arriving in South London, and given the schedule, could be an effective budget differential.

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1,526 Comments Post a Comment
  1. spanishdon
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Martial or Cavani to start?

    1. Dthinger
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Cavani is in really good form, but who knows

    2. _Ninja_
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Cavani

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        He played 34 mins in the Cup.

        His pattern looks like a full game then half a match.

    3. Bushwhacker
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Toss a coin. But Cavani was rested midweek so would be likely. Also likely more effective against a deep bus, they can just lob it into him.

  2. zon
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    DCL + McCarthy -> Cavani + Pope woth a hit?

    1. Bushwhacker
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      If you're willing to risk Cavani will start.

      1. BENOIT
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        He will

  3. Little Red Lacazette
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    You think Son+Kane are likely to get some good points against City?

    1. Bushwhacker
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      No

    2. Indalo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      No, maybe a goal and assist between them but I wouldn't be expecting Spurs to score more than one tbh

  4. Tambling5
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Martinez Forster
    Stones, Cancelo Justin, Digne (Mitch)
    Salah, Sterling, Bruno (Grealish, ESR)
    DCL, Bamford, Antonio
    How about Justin/DCL to Lowton/ Richarlison?

    1. max99
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Thinking of the same changes

  5. Oldie99
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Play Son or Targett this week?

    1. Tambling5
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Son has biggest upside

    2. Dthinger
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      has to be Son

  6. debrXne
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Don't have any chip left except BB which I plan to use for DGW26. How do I navigate GW29 ?

      1. Hadebayor Mum
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Possibility Spurs Villa could move to GW29 so I'm still undecided. I will hold a couple of Leeds and get in a Brighton defender.

    • Pigeon
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Would you bench boost this;
      Martinez, Coufal, DCL & Dallas?

      1. Threat Level Midnight
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        If DCL was fit, yes. But unfortunately no. Wait till GW26

        1. Pigeon
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Using TC that week. I could do DCL to Cavani (-4) and do it?

          1. Scots Gooner
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            I'd definitely consider it in those circumstances

    • Corona is not good 4 U
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Play two:

        A) Coufal,
        B) Soucek,
        C) Raphinha,
        D) Antonio.

        Thank you!

        1. Threat Level Midnight
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Soucek and Antonio

        2. Indalo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          B and D

      • Hadebayor Mum
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Am I GTG? 1FT and 9.4 ITB.

        Pope

        Mee Digne Cresswell Dias Cancelo
        Bruno Gundo (C) Grealish
        Watkins Antonio

        Martinez Soucek Raphinha DCL

      • Elly88 > KTR (Kevin The …
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Sell one for Gundog

        A. Dias
        B. Cancelo

        1. Indalo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Dias

      • Vovhund
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Best starter this week:

        A) Watkins
        B) Kane

        1. Gemma817
            1 month, 29 days ago

            B

        2. Gemma817
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Sorry for repost.
            Who do you think scores more?
            i) Soucek + 4
            ii) JRod

            1. Indalo
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Soucek

          • Elly88 > KTR (Kevin The …
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Which other team does DCL play on GW 26 other than SOU?

            1. Indalo
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Either Villa or West Brom I believe

              1. Elly88 > KTR (Kevin The …
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                If its Westbrom then that will be massive for DCL.

          • Indalo
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Really struggling to decide on a transfer this week. Have 2 FT and 0.9 itb. Don't want to roll again and essentially lose a FT. Any suggestions?

            Martinez
            Cancelo Dias Lowton
            Salah Son Fernandes Sterling(C)
            Bamford Antonio Watkins

            Fabri Coufal Dallas Elneny

            1. BenAsh85
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Its not a very exciting suggestion, but how about Fabianski to Pope. Dgw followed by a home match vs wba.

          • Gudjohnsen
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Start 2

            A. Antonio
            B. Saka
            C. Coufal
            D. Soucek

            1. ballsy_b
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              1 month, 29 days ago

              C and D
              Not sure they will risk Antonio

          • ballsy_b
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Hi,

            Does anyone know if Everton and West Ham will have a double gameweek 26? I have DCL and Antonio and looking to transfer one out this gameweek.

            1. Scots Gooner
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Don't think there's any possibility of a West Ham double, but Everton are likely

              1. ballsy_b
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Thanks

          • ballsy_b
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Is Lowton a good shout for Burnely defence cover. Already have Pope. Can't afford any one of the two centre backs.

            1. St Pauli Walnuts
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              It's what I've done, I could afford Mee but wanted to leave a bit more in the bank to manoeuvre for planned BB in 26.

          • Blanka
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            On bench boost, is DCL out for - 4 worth it? Considering he'll probably play against City.

            1. Fuddled FC
              • 9 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              debating that myself.
              Thinking either DCL > Rich or just leaving it

              1. Blanka
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                I looked at Rich, surprised at his lack of goals and assists tho. Considered Ings, Cavani, but might just ride it out with DCL. He'll be a bit of a differential and however good City are I wouldn't write off Everton scoring, and DCL would likely be involved.

          • Fuddled FC
            • 9 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            I don't know whether to bench boost or not..

            I have Antonio, DCL, Digne flagged...

            a) Yes (DCL > Rich) -4
            b) Yes (play DCL)
            b) No

            1. Blanka
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Digne is g2g apparently, if that helps.

            2. Blanka
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Also widely anticipated Antonio plays + West Ham don't play till Monday.

              1. Fuddled FC
                • 9 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Thanks Blanka

          • Weeb Kakashi
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Cresswell Stephens Wilson Forster> Pope Vydra Stones Lookman (-8) worth it to Bench Boost?

            Areola Dallas Bamford Antonio

            1. Holmes
              • 7 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Cresswell to Stones is probably a waste. Wilson to Vydra probably won't work either.

              1. Weeb Kakashi
                • 5 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Yes. Wasnt very sure of it. Thanks

          • Little Red Lacazette
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Play 1:
            A. Bednarek
            B. Dallas

            1. Holmes
              • 7 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Bednarek

          • svasei - Up (?) the Rovers
            • 11 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            DCL to

            A) Cavani
            B) Barnes

          • thom830g
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            2 FT 3,5 ITB

            Should I just do Bissouma -> Foden and play:

            Pope
            Robertson - Coufal - Dias - Shaw
            Salah - Bruno - Foden - Gundogan - Grealish
            Antonio

            (4m - Bamford - DCL - Justin)

            1. REDNBLU
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Robertson out, Bamford in

          • Nyni99
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            1 month, 28 days ago

            Richarlison or bamford for -4, have dcl right now

          • hb
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 28 days ago

            Pope
            Mee Cancelo Dias
            Salah Grealish Saka Gundo (C) Bruno
            Bamford Werner

            Bench:
            Antonio / Cresswell / Rudiger (Emi)

            Am I making a mistake with sitting any of these guys? I feel like arsenal and Leeds will have goals.

          • King Red Hook
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            1 month, 28 days ago

            Start Bamford, Antonio, or Targett this week?