Spot the Differential

Differential Lowton can exploit Fulham and Palace’s weak left flanks in Double Gameweek 24

Gameweek 24 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Burnley, Chelsea and Fulham, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Matthew Lowton

  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: cry + FUL | WBA | tot | ARS | eve

Following the inclusion of Ben Mee (£5.0m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Matthew Lowton (£4.5m).

Owned by just over 2% of FPL managers, the full-back has impressed this year and took up his most advanced position of the season against Brighton and Hove Albion last time out. That was in part due to Graham Potter’s 3-4-1-2 shape, but the fact Lowton registered three shots and had more final-third touches than any other player on the pitch is encouraging. 

They were a little unfortunate to concede too, restricting their opponents to just two shots on target and 0.52 expected goals (xG).

It’s also worth pointing out that both of Burnley’s opponents in the forthcoming double, Crystal Palace and Fulham, have often looked vulnerable when defending the left-side of the pitch in recent matches. That is something Lowton and Johann Berg Gudmundsson (£5.4m), the Clarets only natural right-sided midfielder who is now available again after injury, will surely look to take advantage of.

Meanwhile, Burnley’s clean sheet prospects look promising, as the Eagles are set to be without talisman Wilfried Zaha (£7.1m) and have failed to score without him in the starting XI this season. Fulham aren’t exactly known for their goalscoring either, and though that could change if they can up their conversation rate, I think owners can go into this double optimistic that Sean Dyche’s side can return at least one clean sheet.

Lowton has upped his performance levels in recent weeks, and now adding more consistency to his game, could be a solid differential.

César Azpilicueta

  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £5.7m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: NEW | sou | MUN | EVE | lee

Prior to the departure of Frank Lampard, César Azpilicueta (£5.7m) was facing an uncertain future at Chelsea.

The Spaniard had fallen below Reece James (£5.0m) in the right-back pecking order, which limited him to just eight Premier League starts up until Gameweek 20. However, Azpilicueta was restored to the starting XI in Thomas Tuchel’s first match in charge against Wolverhampton Wanderers and has stayed there since.

In fact, the captain has played every top-flight minute under the German coach, and is clearly benefitting from his manager’s decision to play a 3-4-3 formation. Now stationed on the right of a back-three, a position he thrived in under Antonio Conte in the 2016/17 title winning campaign, Azpilicueta is averaging 7.25 points per game and posting some encouraging numbers. 

Over the last four Gameweeks, amongst all defenders, the 31-year-old ranks joint-fourth for created chances, sixth for penalty area touches and tenth for final-third touches. He even provided a goal in the 2-0 win over Burnley. 

During that run, Chelsea have given up just five shots on target and 1.98 expected goals conceded (xGC), the lowest total in the league, which has helped them deliver clean sheets against Wolves, Burnley and Tottenham Hotspur. The quality of their opponents should of course be considered, but regardless, it’s a positive sign so early in Tuchel’s reign.  

Azpilicueta is a real leader, and alongside Thiago Silva (£5.6m) and Antonio Rudiger (£4.6m), offers plenty of clean sheet potential in the coming weeks.

Antonee Robinson

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: eve + bur | SHU | cry | liv | MCI

23-year-old Antonee Robinson (£4.4m) joined Fulham from Wigan Athletic back in August, and has been one of their best performers since.

Though he is still waiting for his first attacking return of the season, his numbers are encouraging, and if Scott Parker’s side can step up and start converting their chances he could offer value at just £4.4m.

Since making his debut back in Gameweek 4, Robinson has shown himself to be effective in the final-third. 

Amongst all top-flight defenders, he ranks joint-seventh for created chances and final-third touches, eighth for crosses and second for successful take-ons. In fact, only Luke Ayling (£4.4m), João Cancelo (£6.0m), Ben White (£4.4m) and Azpilicuetahave a higher expected assist (xA) delta, which suggests he has been really unfortunate not to register a single assist.

The Cottagers goalless draw against West Ham United last time out leaves them 18th in the standings with 15 points, eight less than Burnley who are 17th. And though their Double Gameweek fixtures aren’t the easiest, their appeal is boosted by games to follow against Sheffield United and Crystal Palace. It’s also worth noting that they have a guaranteed fixture in Blank Gameweek 29, which could be useful for those who have already used the Free Hit chip.

Robinson has looked good since arriving in South London, and given the schedule, could be an effective budget differential.

avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/818/history”

1,526 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Hryszko
    • 4 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    All Good? Any changes? Decided to roll my FT..

    Martinez
    Stones - Dias - Shaw
    Salah - Gundo - Bruno - Raphina - Soucek
    Antonio - Bamford

    Bench order: Meslier - Coufal - Dier - DCL

    1. Scholes Out Forever
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      No Pope?

  2. thepuntmaster
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Grealish > Gundo worth a -4?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Yes

    2. toerag
      • 11 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      think so

    3. Theo Walcat
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      I would want both, lots of doubles coming up for villa and city. If you are wildcarding soon could do Gundo this week and get grealish back

  3. MissouriMarten
    • 6 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    A) Soucek v SHU
    or
    B) Shaw v Wba
    I have Antonio and Bruno.
    Thanks.

    1. thepuntmaster
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      B

    2. Holmes
      • 8 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      B

    3. toerag
      • 11 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      hmmm

      1. toerag
        • 11 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        b safer

  4. damiang2233
    • 11 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Which of the below for -4 makes most sense.

    1. Gundagean & Pope for Barnes & McCarthy
    2. Watkins & Pope for Wilson & McCarthy

    Thoughts?

    1. toerag
      • 11 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      2

      1. damiang2233
        • 11 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Reasoning?

  5. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Going for it now, Salah and Stones to Sterling and Tark (-4). GTG?

    Pope
    Cancelo Digne Tarkowski
    Sterling(c) Bruno Son Gundogan Soucek
    Ings Antonio

    Martinez Coufal DCL Mitchell

    1. Holmes
      • 8 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Yes

    2. toerag
      • 11 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      not sure - go with yer gut

    3. DannyDrinkVodka
      • 2 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      I like it, it's got panache

  6. estheblessed
    • 6 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    All good here? Or should I be taking a hit? £3m ITB

    Pope
    Stones, Cancello, Shaw
    Gundo(c), Grealish, Bruno, Salah
    DCL, Bamford, Antonio

    Martinez, Barnes, Alioski, Dier

    1. Holmes
      • 8 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Maybe start Barnes over Dom?

      1. estheblessed
        • 6 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Or transfer Barnes to Rashford for a hit?

  7. Jimjam
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Martinez, Steer
    Stones, Shaw, Coufal, Dier, KWP
    Salah, Bruno, Son, Gundogan, Stephens
    DCL, Bamford, Antonio

    2FT

    DCL & Dier --> Ings & Lowton?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Yes

    2. Shipstontrev
      • 12 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Yes

    3. toerag
      • 11 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      yis

  8. Flynny
    • 6 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Hi...Who is best dcl replacement please?

    A....Bamford

    B....cavani

    C....ings

    B and C means a hit next week as I'll need bamford

    Thanks

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      C

    2. Holmes
      • 8 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      A

    3. AC/DC AFC
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      A then...

      1. Flynny
        • 6 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Cheers.....think A is sensible but a bit boring

    4. toerag
      • 11 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      a

  9. Rhodes your boat
    • 5 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Have Antonio, plan was to do soucek to gundo and wc next week... do I stick to the plan? Rudiger would go to 1st sub

    1. Top Lad Dakes.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Yes

  10. DIMITRIS
    • 3 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Play one for this GW:
    A) Creswell
    B) Raphihna

    1. Abra Dubravka
      • 2 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      A

      1. DIMITRIS
        • 3 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Cheers

  11. DAZZ
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    If WC25 and BB26 best use of the TC will be this gameweek, might go Sterling (TC). Trying to talk myself into it

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      If TC gw26 Spurs have 2 decent fixtures.

      Are they both home?

      Man City in form.

      I'm tempted too.

      1. Holmes
        • 8 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        One is at home. 2nd will be SOU/ful

      2. DAZZ
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Thing is without FH it makes sense for me to WC25 then BB26, so cant really use TC in 26.

        1. Utopsis
          • 1 Year
          8 months, 16 days ago

          There will be future DGWs no? The likely Villa one with NEW and SHU looks tasty for example

  12. Apollo Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    A. Son & Justin > Sterling & Mee
    B. Soucek & Justin > Sterling & Lowton

    1. Stimps
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      B

    2. Apollo Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      B means having to bench a striker

  13. Pep's Money Laundry
    • 6 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    I need to bench one:

    A. Coufal (SHU)
    B. Antonio
    C. Soucek
    D. Bamford (ars)
    E. Maguire (wba)

    1. Apollo Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Soucek, if Antonio doesn't play you probably get him on anyway

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      C and pray haha

    3. Abra Dubravka
      • 2 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      A

    4. Rains of Castamere
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      I learned after Palace away... bench Coufal before Soucek.

      West Ham missing Ogbonna, SHU fighting for their lives, I have a feeling West Ham will concede

  14. Slurpy
    • 6 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Areola
    Lowton Mee Stones
    Sterling Gundogan Rashford Fernandes
    Ings Watkins

    Play Shaw or Bamford?

    1. estheblessed
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Did you WC? I would play Shaw.

  15. Rainer
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Che Adams going under the radar? Probably for good reason...

    5 games in 3 GWs at 5.8m...

    1. jia you (The No BS League -…
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      ... and be saying 'why didn't I just get Ings' for the foreseeable 😉

    2. doher.ty
      • 1 Year
      8 months, 16 days ago

      But it's Che Adams! I've never rated him tbh so take what I say with a grain of Salt but I think it's Ings or nothing.

    3. Sanchit
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Could easily be 10 points in 3 gameweeks.

  16. Jon Snow
    • 6 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Makes me sad taking James Justin out, only person left from my GW1 squad. Hope he recovers well!

  17. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
    • 5 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    The consensus is that it is alright to start Bamford vs Aston Villa in 26 right?

    1. Sanchit
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      If you don't have a WC left, yes!

  18. FF Dirtbag
    • 10 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Who scores more:

    A) Cavani and Martinez
    Or
    B) Pope and Soucek?

    1. FF Dirtbag
      • 10 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      This GW

    2. Theo Walcat
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      ohh thats close, A is more exciting though

  19. Babelcopter
    • 2 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    People with WC, BB & FH what’s the plan?

    1. Sturridge Wars
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      WC GW25 , BB DGW26. Either free hit on another double game week or on BGW29

    2. Sanchit
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      WC 25 with 2 Leeds and no Soton.
      15 DGW players and BB in 26.
      Slowly transfer out the bench guys to cheapos.
      FH 29.

  20. Von Lipwig
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    A) Mee B) Digne

    1. Theo Walcat
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      A

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Tarkowski

      1. Von Lipwig
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Why him over Mee?

  21. Top Lad Dakes.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Would you lose Salah and Stones for Sterling and Shaw/AWB?

    Got Cancelo Gundo from City too

    1. DAZZ
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Think double defence and one of Gundo/Raheem is the way forward

  22. Sanchit
    • 6 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Definitely play Cresswell over DCL?

    1. Theo Walcat
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      thats what I would probably do

    2. Boly Would
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      I would

    3. Mcgugan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      100%

  23. Corona is not good 4 U
    • 1 Year
    8 months, 16 days ago

    What to do with this horror show?

    Pope, Mc.Carthy
    Dias, Stones, Robertson, Digne, Coufal
    Fernandes, Salah, Foden, Raphinha, Soucek
    Calvert-Lewin, Antonio, Bamford

    2 ft, 2.2 in the bank.

    1. FF Dirtbag
      • 10 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Antonio to cavani.

      1. FF Dirtbag
        • 10 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Or dcl. You choose

  24. Theo Walcat
    • 3 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    DCL + Soucek to Gundo + Watkins for -4?

  25. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    People with FH, BB & TC, what’s the plan?

    1. Boly Would
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      No idea. Maybe TC26, FH29 and BB any time they have decent enough fixtures

    2. Sanchit
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 16 days ago

      Not that many in the boat I suppose.
      But I'd build for BB26
      FH 29
      TC whenever spurs have the extra DGW

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 months, 16 days ago

        Cheers!

  26. Mcgugan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Any news on Antonio or Digne?

  27. waltzingmatildas
    • 11 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    A) Salah and stones to sterling and shaw
    B) dcl and johnstone to cavani and pope
    Wcing next week, I think

  28. Sturridge Wars
    • 6 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Best DCL replacement ?

  29. ElliotJHP
    • 9 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    Bit torn, which three would you start?

    A) Coufal (SHU)
    B) Wood* (cry,FUL)
    C) Bamford (ars)
    D) DCL* (FUL, MCI)
    E) Grealish (bha)

  30. AJ24
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    8 months, 16 days ago

    G2G?

    Martinez
    Lowton, Cancelo, Rudiger
    Gundog (C), Salah, Bruno (VC), Son
    Kane, Bamford, Antonio

    Ryan, Soucek, Shaw, Dallas - 1 FT and 0.6m ITB