Spot the Differential

Differential Lowton can exploit Fulham and Palace’s weak left flanks in Double Gameweek 24

Gameweek 24 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Burnley, Chelsea and Fulham, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Matthew Lowton

  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: cry + FUL | WBA | tot | ARS | eve

Following the inclusion of Ben Mee (£5.0m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Matthew Lowton (£4.5m).

Owned by just over 2% of FPL managers, the full-back has impressed this year and took up his most advanced position of the season against Brighton and Hove Albion last time out. That was in part due to Graham Potter’s 3-4-1-2 shape, but the fact Lowton registered three shots and had more final-third touches than any other player on the pitch is encouraging. 

They were a little unfortunate to concede too, restricting their opponents to just two shots on target and 0.52 expected goals (xG).

It’s also worth pointing out that both of Burnley’s opponents in the forthcoming double, Crystal Palace and Fulham, have often looked vulnerable when defending the left-side of the pitch in recent matches. That is something Lowton and Johann Berg Gudmundsson (£5.4m), the Clarets only natural right-sided midfielder who is now available again after injury, will surely look to take advantage of.

Meanwhile, Burnley’s clean sheet prospects look promising, as the Eagles are set to be without talisman Wilfried Zaha (£7.1m) and have failed to score without him in the starting XI this season. Fulham aren’t exactly known for their goalscoring either, and though that could change if they can up their conversation rate, I think owners can go into this double optimistic that Sean Dyche’s side can return at least one clean sheet.

Lowton has upped his performance levels in recent weeks, and now adding more consistency to his game, could be a solid differential.

César Azpilicueta

  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £5.7m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: NEW | sou | MUN | EVE | lee

Prior to the departure of Frank Lampard, César Azpilicueta (£5.7m) was facing an uncertain future at Chelsea.

The Spaniard had fallen below Reece James (£5.0m) in the right-back pecking order, which limited him to just eight Premier League starts up until Gameweek 20. However, Azpilicueta was restored to the starting XI in Thomas Tuchel’s first match in charge against Wolverhampton Wanderers and has stayed there since.

In fact, the captain has played every top-flight minute under the German coach, and is clearly benefitting from his manager’s decision to play a 3-4-3 formation. Now stationed on the right of a back-three, a position he thrived in under Antonio Conte in the 2016/17 title winning campaign, Azpilicueta is averaging 7.25 points per game and posting some encouraging numbers. 

Over the last four Gameweeks, amongst all defenders, the 31-year-old ranks joint-fourth for created chances, sixth for penalty area touches and tenth for final-third touches. He even provided a goal in the 2-0 win over Burnley. 

During that run, Chelsea have given up just five shots on target and 1.98 expected goals conceded (xGC), the lowest total in the league, which has helped them deliver clean sheets against Wolves, Burnley and Tottenham Hotspur. The quality of their opponents should of course be considered, but regardless, it’s a positive sign so early in Tuchel’s reign.  

Azpilicueta is a real leader, and alongside Thiago Silva (£5.6m) and Antonio Rudiger (£4.6m), offers plenty of clean sheet potential in the coming weeks.

Antonee Robinson

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: eve + bur | SHU | cry | liv | MCI

23-year-old Antonee Robinson (£4.4m) joined Fulham from Wigan Athletic back in August, and has been one of their best performers since.

Though he is still waiting for his first attacking return of the season, his numbers are encouraging, and if Scott Parker’s side can step up and start converting their chances he could offer value at just £4.4m.

Since making his debut back in Gameweek 4, Robinson has shown himself to be effective in the final-third. 

Amongst all top-flight defenders, he ranks joint-seventh for created chances and final-third touches, eighth for crosses and second for successful take-ons. In fact, only Luke Ayling (£4.4m), João Cancelo (£6.0m), Ben White (£4.4m) and Azpilicuetahave a higher expected assist (xA) delta, which suggests he has been really unfortunate not to register a single assist.

The Cottagers goalless draw against West Ham United last time out leaves them 18th in the standings with 15 points, eight less than Burnley who are 17th. And though their Double Gameweek fixtures aren’t the easiest, their appeal is boosted by games to follow against Sheffield United and Crystal Palace. It’s also worth noting that they have a guaranteed fixture in Blank Gameweek 29, which could be useful for those who have already used the Free Hit chip.

Robinson has looked good since arriving in South London, and given the schedule, could be an effective budget differential.

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1,526 Comments Post a Comment
  1. doher.ty
    • 1 Year
    7 months, 15 days ago

    Should I do:

    A) Dias to Cancelo
    B) Soucek and Dias to Gundo and Mee -4

    Will be WC next week so can bring back Dias if needed.

    1. doher.ty
      • 1 Year
      7 months, 15 days ago

      Have Sterling and Stones (as my other two City)

    2. Abra Dubravka
      • 2 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      I’d just keep Dias Stones and Sterling. Nothing more pressing?

      1. doher.ty
        • 1 Year
        7 months, 15 days ago

        Not really! I'm going to WC next week so want to be aggressive with some one week moves!

        This is assuming that one of Digne and Antonio will play

        1. Abra Dubravka
          • 2 Years
          7 months, 15 days ago

          I have Digne and Antonio so hopefully they do!

    3. Elly88 > KTR (Kevin The …
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      What is the reason for wanting to sell Dias?

      1. doher.ty
        • 1 Year
        7 months, 15 days ago

        He's flagged and I would need to move a City defender out to get Gundo as I have 3 City.

      2. Scholes Out Forever
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 months, 15 days ago

        double city mids instead of double city def

        1. doher.ty
          • 1 Year
          7 months, 15 days ago

          Thoughts? Would you rather have the mids or the defenders?

  2. Vovhund
    • 3 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    Please rate this multiple hits plan:

    Planning for DGWs and BGW29 while saving WC and BB for later with this bunch and 2 FT:

    McCarthy-Johnstone
    Stones-Cancelo-Justin-Coufal-Dallas
    Salah-Son-Gundogan-Bruno-Soucek
    Antonio-Bamford-DCL

    Plan:
    GW24: Johnstone/Justin/DCL to Areola/Mee/Ings (-4)
    GW25: Coufal/Soucek to Shaw/Raphinha (-4)
    GW26: Ings/Antonio to Kane/Watkins (-4)

    1. doher.ty
      • 1 Year
      7 months, 15 days ago

      This plan won't come off and I wouldn't be keen on lining up hits every week for the next 3

    2. In Bale We Trust
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      You’re getting Ings in for a hit and then out for a hit... no likey

      1. Vovhund
        • 3 Years
        7 months, 15 days ago

        Good points. Could also go DCL straight to Kane this week, play him away to City and go without Ings in DWG25. Better?

  3. Abra Dubravka
    • 2 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    Good enough to roll FT?
    £5m itb for Kane next week.

    Pope (Martinez)
    Dias, Stones, Digne (Coufal, Dallas)
    Gundo, Bruno, Grealish, Salah, Soucek
    Bamford, Antonio (DCL)?

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      Yep

  4. Mattymo23
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    Pick one please

    A) DCL to Rich, bench Bamford
    B) Play Bamford, DCL to Ings next GW
    C) DCL to Rich, Rich to Ings next GW

    1. Abra Dubravka
      • 2 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      B

    2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      B

    3. Utopsis
      • 1 Year
      7 months, 15 days ago

      B

  5. Salan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    I have 2 FT, and a crazy thought of considering the moves below:

    Cancelo, Gundo, Dias, Son > Cancelo, Gundo, Dallas, Sterling (C or TC)

    I like to captain Sterling this dgw, but stucked by 3 existing Man City players owned. Already have Salah and Bruno.

    Is this too risky? Now ranking 120kth. Thank you.

    1. hullcityfan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      Gundo to Gundo for a hit?

    2. thewakka
      • 1 Year
      7 months, 15 days ago

      If you rank 120k then this shouldnt be a question

    3. doher.ty
      • 1 Year
      7 months, 15 days ago

      WHAT?

    4. Salan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      I supposed it has more details than just simply quoting Dias & Son > Dallas & Sterling.

      It's fine.

    5. DARE TO BISCAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      Cancelo, Gundo > Cancelo, Gundo seems a sideways move

    6. Salan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      I am surprised.

  6. Dele
    • 4 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    1FT... AWB > Ben Mee?

    1. Abra Dubravka
      • 2 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      No

  7. Netters2018
    • 2 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    Is a -4 justified for 1 week when wildcarding nxt week to bring in a dbl gameweeker?

    1. In Bale We Trust
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      You know the answer to that q yourself

      1. Netters2018
        • 2 Years
        7 months, 15 days ago

        I honestly dont thats why im asking for advice!

        1. Fuddled FC
          • 9 Years
          7 months, 15 days ago

          Depends who it is and who it is for I guess..

        2. The Ilfordian
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          7 months, 15 days ago

          I’m contemplating the same but outside City (I already have 3) it’s difficult guaranteeing getting your points back in one game.

    2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      Depends which move you are making

  8. damiang2233
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    Which of the below for -4 makes most sense.

    1. Gundagean & Pope for Barnes & McCarthy
    2. Watkins & Pope for Wilson & McCarthy

    Thoughts please?

    1. El Presidente
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      Wtf.. transfering Pope out ahead of a DGW?

      1. damiang2233
        • 11 Years
        7 months, 15 days ago

        Transferring in

      2. DARE TO BISCAN
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        7 months, 15 days ago

        Erm. That's one way to read that, I suppose.

  9. estheblessed
    • 6 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    When do we find out GW26 fixtures?

  10. gomez123
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    Salah to Sterling (c)

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      Sounds good, but removing Salah is a big no for me personally. I just hate it when I don't own him.

    2. FFS Ultras are for Kinnear
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      This is doing me head in

      1. gomez123
        • 8 Years
        7 months, 15 days ago

        Ive got 2 FT so could do Son & Digne > Sterling (c) & Shaw?? instead??

    3. Salan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      I also consider to captain Sterling, but try the best to keep Salah.

  11. Pukki Party
    • 4 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    If you had double ManCity defenders would you go:

    A) Keep double defence
    B) Shuffle around and get Sterling+Gundo for a -4

    1. upforgrabs
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      A

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      B

    3. Boly Would
      • 5 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      A

  12. FF Dirtbag
    • 10 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    Which pair scores more points this GW?

    A) Cavani and Martinez
    B) Pope and Soucek

    1. Pukki Party
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      B

    2. upforgrabs
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      B

    3. Rains of Castamere
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      A) 8 and 7
      B) 12 and 2

      A by a point

      1. FF Dirtbag
        • 10 Years
        7 months, 15 days ago

        Ooshh

  13. Merlinho
    • 12 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    I need to start 3 of Son, Bamford, Rudiger, DCL, Antonio

    What do you think lads? I'm currently starting Rudiger vs NEW, Antonio vs SHU and Bamford, but benching Son feels a bit odd...

  14. RedJive79
    • 2 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    DCL to Richarlison or Cavani??

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      Cav

    2. Pukki Party
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      Rich

    3. The Ilfordian
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      Think Cav is better long term so depends if you’re WCing soon. I’m going Rich for one week

    4. DAZZ
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      Cavani! United will smash WBA

  15. Fuddled FC
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    My plan was to do Forster > Areola and then BB

    Martinez
    Mee Stones Cancelo
    Grealish Gundog Salah Fernandes Son
    Antonio Bamford

    Forster Digne Coufal DCL

    I could do...which one?
    a) DCL > Rich (&BB)
    b) DCL & Forster > Rich & Areola (-4) (&BB)
    c) Save FT for next week

    I'm slightly worried that Antonio & Digne are also flagged

    1. Pukki Party
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      B

    2. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      Save.

      Mccarthy benched in the cup and in woeful form. If Forster starts over Mccarthy in gw 24 then he could also play in Southampton's double gameweeks

  16. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    Which one would you rather own this week and going forward?

    A. Digne
    B. Tarko
    C. Rashford
    D. JRod
    E. Cavani

    Or any two for a hit!

    1. In Bale We Trust
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      Maybe A or C. If no popey then tarky a good option. Don’t think any are must haves.

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        7 months, 15 days ago

        This is my team. Looking to ditch Robbo, Soucek or DCL

        Pope
        Coufal, Dias*, Cancelo
        Son, Bruno, Soucek, Gündo
        Bamford, Antonio*, DCL*
        (McCarthy, Raphina, Dallas, Robbo)

    2. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      C

  17. Vardy boys
    • 2 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    I already have Mee.

    What to do with Justin?

    A) Tarkowski
    B) Shaw/AWB

    ?

    1. Zladan
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      Shaw or Dallas

      1. Vardy boys
        • 2 Years
        7 months, 15 days ago

        Already have Dallas on bench

    2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      A

  18. Al-Chemy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    Got 1 FT left, what do you think is the best move?

    A) DCL -> Cavani (play Cavani)
    B) bench DCL, play one of Son, Bamford or Dallas? If so which one?

    1. Elly88 > KTR (Kevin The …
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      B. Bamford

      1. Al-Chemy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        7 months, 15 days ago

        Cheers mate!

  19. Don Kloppeone
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    This is how I'm lined up currently with 1FT being rolled:

    Pope
    Dias, Stones, Coufal, Shaw
    Gundo (C), Salah, Bruno, Soucek
    Bamford, Antonio
    (Martinez) (DCL, Son, Dallas)

    That bench looks all kinds of wrong!!
    Play Son over Coufal?

    Cheers!

  20. Lexi2014
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    FA Cup threw major spanner in the works!

    DCL and Justin -> Lowton and £7.9 or less. Richarlison short of form. Could go for Watkins?

    Martinez
    Dias / Cresswell / Justin (C.Taylor / Konsa)
    Salah / Sterling / Fernandes / Lookman (Soucek)
    Antonion / Bamford / DCL

    Thoughts people?? Million thanks!

    1. Zladan
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      DCL & Justin to Richardson & Lowton for me.

  21. Scots Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    Pope
    Lowton / Cancelo / Digne / Coufal
    Bruno / Grealish / (c) Sterling / Gundogan / Salah
    Antonio

    Martinez / Bamford / Dallas / DCL

    Correct bench/bench order?

    1. Scholes Out Forever
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      Bambam over Coufal

  22. andres
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    What would you do with this team? Open to a hot to get dcl out or maybe sterling?

    McCarthy (Forster)
    Cancelo Stones Digne Mee Coufal
    Bruno Gundo Grealish Salah (soucek)
    Antonio (watkins, DCL)
    5.5itb, 1FT

  23. Corona is not good 4 U
    • 1 Year
    7 months, 15 days ago

    Foden -> Gündogan for free?

    In week 19 I thought for a long time which player to take. Unfortunately, I went for the wrong one and it cost me 84 points. I could cry. It was the worst decision of the season.

  24. Pedersen
    • 2 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    As i understand, both Justin and DCL is out. Justin for long. What to get instead? Cavani and Mee ? Already have Pope though

  25. Winston.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    Best one?

    A. DCL+Antonio+Robertson—> Kane+Watkins+Pieters, -4
    B. DCL+Antonio —> Watkins+Cavani, FT
    C. DCL —> Watkins, save one FT
    D. DCL —> Richarlison, save one FT

    1. andres
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      Play coufal, soucek or watkins?

      1. andres
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 months, 15 days ago

        Sorry!

        B or D. Dependa if you plan to WC after this gw

  26. JJeyy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    Start Soucek or Antonio?

    1. FFS Ultras are for Kinnear
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      S

  27. FFS Ultras are for Kinnear
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    A) Salah and Gundogan
    B) Sterling and Che Adams

  28. Johnny too hotty
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    Is there any fellow managers with only the WC, TC and BB left? If so what are your plans?

    1. DAZZ
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      Me! Im Triple Captaining Sterling this week, WC25 and pull in 1/2 Leeds players and load up on 26 for the bench boost. Make sure to have a couple Villa and Spurs.

      1. Johnny too hotty
        • 9 Years
        7 months, 15 days ago

        Nice plan! TC this week is a statement.... you think city will spank everton too?

        Everyone has a double in GW26 but why are raising villa spurs?

    2. The Ilfordian
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      I haven’t worked out WC29 yet but suggestion on here is that FH isn’t much use. So carrying on with WC25, BB26, TC later and handle the blank(s)

  29. mattyb09
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    Who to start this week?

    a) Smith-Rowe v Leeds
    b) Watkins @ Brighton
    c) DCL v Man City
    d) Robertson @ Leicester

    1. Rains of Castamere
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 15 days ago

      B

  30. Jellyfish
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 15 days ago

    So Ancelotti's update on DCL more or less rules him, out of the Fulham game right?