Spot the Differential

Odegaard’s creativity can help provide FPL value in BGW29 and beyond

Blank Gameweek 29 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Arsenal, Fulham and Brighton and Hove Albion, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Martin Ødegaard

Can Martin Ødegaard live up to his potential and become a top FPL asset?
  • FPL ownership: 2.1%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: whu | LIV | shu | FUL | EVE

Martin Ødegaard (£6.0m) has made a real impact at Arsenal since joining from Real Madrid on loan in January.

The Norwegian international has now started seven of the Gunners’ last nine matches in all competitions, predominantly as a number 10, and has repaid his manager’s faith with important goals against Olympiacos and Tottenham Hotspur.

His displays have seen him become the focal point of the side, which is reflected in his numbers.

Since making his first league start last month, Ødegaard ranks first amongst team-mates for successful passes in the final-third and joint-top for chances created, while his total of four shots over the last two matches highlights his increasing goal threat. His ability to make himself free on the edge of the box is a really nice part of his game, and having taken a few corners too, there is lots to like.

Sunday’s 2-1 victory over Spurs in the north London derby leaves Mikel Arteta’s side 10 points adrift of the top four. However, a win against West Ham United this weekend would allow them to close the gap, and they have momentum. In fact, since Boxing Day, they sit fourth in the Premier League form table, having collected 27 points from their last 14 matches.

In a relatively short space of time, Ødegaard has become an integral part of this Arsenal side, and could be a useful budget differential for the run-in.

Tosin Adarabioyo

  • FPL ownership: 0.9%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: LEE | avl | WOL | ars | –

Fulham defender Tosin Adarabioyo (£4.5m) has been a crucial part of Fulham’s defensive improvement this season.

Before his arrival in October, the Cottagers had shipped 11 goals in their opening four matches of the campaign. However, they have gradually improved since, and have now conceded just five in their last eight outings. 

During that time, the 23-year-olds partnership with Dane Joachim Andersen (£4.5m) has helped Scott Parker’s side register five clean sheets, and with Alphonse Areola (£4.6m) excelling in goal, bringing in a Fulham defender this week could be a shrewd move.

Their opponents in Gameweek 29, Leeds United, have failed to score in four of their last five matches, while Adarabioyo’s threat from set-pieces could be another route to points, too. The centre-back has produced 15 headed attempts from set-plays this term, a team-leading total, which is particularly relevant given that defending dead-ball situations has been an achilles heel throughout Marcelo Bielsa’s time at Elland Road. 

It’s another huge game for Fulham, who currently sit in the relegation zone but can move up to 17th with a win. Beyond that, there are winnable matches against Aston Villa, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Burnley, Southampton and Newcastle United before the end of the season, so there is potential to hold their assets long-term.

Adarabioyo has established himself as a key player for Fulham this season, and with an FPL ownership of just 0.9%, could be a useful differential.

Danny Welbeck

Welbeck ready to profit from Brighton's appealing run of fixtures
  • FPL ownership: 0.4%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: NEW | mun | EVE | che | shu

Following the inclusion of Joël Veltman (£4.4m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Danny Welbeck (£5.5m).

After several substitute appearances, the 30-year-old returned to Brighton and Hove Albion’s starting XI last weekend and was central to their win, providing the assist for Leandro Trossard’s (£5.8m) second-half strike.

The former Manchester United and Arsenal forward has now been directly involved in five goals this term, despite being limited to just 15 appearances and eight starts. That suggests he can make a notable impact when on the pitch, and with Newcastle United up next, he could be worth a look.

The Magpies have been poor on the road this season, and have won just three of their 14 Premier League away games. During that time, only Leeds United have a worse expected goals conceded (xGC) total, while they also rank in the bottom three for attempts in the box and shots on target conceded.

While Brighton have often flattered to deceive under Graham Potter, the return of Adam Lallana (£6.2m) can help them kick on. Against Southampton, he was pulling the strings in a slightly deeper role, and if he can stay fit for the remainder of the season, then Albion’s survival chances will receive a massive boost.

Welbeck has a big role to play too, and could be a nice under the radar option in Blank Gameweek 29.

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avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/818/history”

942 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Catastrophe
    • 10 Years
    4 months, 15 days ago

    DCL ->

    A) Lacazette
    B) Antonio
    C) Bamford

    Rest of Team:

    Sanchez
    Dunk, Konsa, Cresswell, Dallas
    Raphinha
    Kane, Watkins

    (Martinez, Shaw, Gundogan, KDB, Fernandes, Son*)

    Cheers

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 15 days ago

      B

      1. Catastrophe
        • 10 Years
        4 months, 15 days ago

        Cheers

  2. JVALDEZ
    • 9 Years
    4 months, 15 days ago

    Sitting at 300k I've decided to captain Lewis Dunk, need to start taking punts. All the stats back a Brighton clean sheet and a decent chance of an attacking return. Happy to go with that given how horrendous Spurs looked plus the travel/120 minute factor.

    Who's with me?

    1. jimmyharte
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 15 days ago

      Yeah after last night I wont be going Son to Bale and I am now captaining Lingard over Kane.

      The Spurs mental & physical hangover will be putrid. Last time after Bayern 7-2 game they lost 3-0 to Brighton.

    2. DBossman_2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 15 days ago

      Joining you there! Newcastle also one of the worst at conceding headed shots and attempts from set plays so why not? I highly doubt Kane will punish given Spurs' away form so its worth a punt!

  3. jimmyharte
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 15 days ago

    I've only got 6 players due to play now with Son all but out, that could even drop to 5 if Grealish doesn't play.

    Is it worth -4 to replace Ben Mee to Dunk/Veltman or someone else? My differentials are Antonio, Lingard (c) & Grealish for this week.

    Rival has Bamford & Raphinha so I'm not sure that this will end well me playing with just 6.

    Thoughts?

    Cheers!

  4. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    4 months, 15 days ago

    any news from smith on Grealish ?

    1. Mr. O'Connell
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 15 days ago

      hasn't trained. Source: Villa Official Twitter.

      1. Steve The Spud
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 15 days ago

        Smith: “I’m hopeful for Jack (Grealish). I’ll leave it until Sunday morning. He’s not trained with us at the moment, but he’s pain-free and he’s running. Ultimately, it will be his decision. But if he doesn’t play I can pretty much guarantee he’ll be ready for Fulham. " #AVFC

        1. Mr. O'Connell
          • 9 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          kept him for 6 weeks for nothing

          1. Would Ed Woodward
            • 2 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            I remember a report on BBC saying they understood he was gonna be out for a month but Smith kept saying he was close, seems to have been BSing throughout.

            1. 3 A
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              4 months, 15 days ago

              I remember that too. Smith loves to keep secret about his team.

              Smith and Maurinho cant be trusted. Any other manager/ coach like them?

        2. Finding Timo
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Thanks , it’s hard to work out if he will play ?! Maybe he might be a sub although I guess if he is going to play he needs to train today with the team?

            1. Mr. O'Connell
              • 9 Years
              4 months, 15 days ago

              I'm not a detective, but I'd say there is almost a 0% chance he'll play. Why risk him when he's essentially got another 3 weeks of rehab due to no England call up and no cup matches.

              1. Mr. O'Connell
                • 9 Years
                4 months, 15 days ago

                also Dean Smith is a World Class liar

                1. Finding Timo
                    4 months, 15 days ago

                    Yep true.. does that make EL gazhi potential good option ?

        3. el polako
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          Why would they risk him if he's got 2 weeks rest during IB ?

      2. Rhodes your boat
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 15 days ago

        2 ft planned, foden to raphina, holgate to cresswell, what other moves to make? 0.1itb after moves

        Martinez
        Targett cresswell
        Son raphina
        Kane bamford watkins

        Areola stones shaw rudiger Salah Bruno gundo

      3. 1team1dream
        • 7 Years
        4 months, 15 days ago

        Could anyone give me a list of matches still to be confirmed that have been postponed thanks in advance.

        1. Pipermaru
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          TOT-SOU and AVL-EVE

          1. 1team1dream
            • 7 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Thanks

      4. Karan14
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 15 days ago

        Martinez*
        Cancelo Burn* Digne Struijk*
        Salah Son* Gündo Raphinha*
        Kane* DCL

        (Fabri Dias Bruno Brewster)
        1.4m & 2 FTs

        Thinking of downgrading Cancelo/Digne ➡️ Dawson and upgrading Brewster ➡️ Antonio.

        Got no WC or FH so only considering longer term transfers.

        Thoughts?

      5. Hryszko
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 15 days ago

        Guys I have 2FT, 5.8m in the bank so plenty to play with... At the moment, with Son out I'm only fielding 7 (if Dier plays)... Planning on WC'ing in 30/31 so any help much appreciated.

        Martinez
        Dier - Coufal - Dias
        Son - Soucek - Raph - Gundo
        DCL - Kane - Bamford

        Bench: Areola - Salah - Shaw - Stones

      6. The Train Driver
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 months, 15 days ago

        These presser times are rarely correct...

      7. Jon Walter's Hatty
        • 7 Years
        4 months, 15 days ago

        Many managers have one eye on the break. Dont flog the injured give them the extra time so they dont have to travel or play for country

      8. Gabbiadini
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 15 days ago

        Does anyone have the FH template for this week?

        1. Jambot
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          Sanchez
          Dunk/Veltman Dallas Cresswell
          JLings Bale Auba Raphina Trossard/Gross
          Kane Bam/Antonio

          1. Gabbiadini
            • 4 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Cheers.
            Neither Son or Grealish going to get up?

            1. Jambot
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              4 months, 15 days ago

              Your guess is as good as mine

              1. Gabbiadini
                • 4 Years
                4 months, 15 days ago

                May as well have them, if they don't play there's easy cover on a FH.

      9. Openboxman
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 15 days ago

        FH DONE

        Sanchez
        Tierney - Dunk - Regulon
        Auba (c) - Bale - Pogba (inside joke) - J Lingz
        Maja - Bamford - Kane

        Areola - Raphina - Dallas - Lascells

        Let's have some fun!

      10. FPL_BUCCANEER
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 15 days ago

        No WC left..

        A) Free Hit

        B) Martinez
        Konsa Struijk Veltman Cresswell/Lingard
        Raphinha Son*
        Kane Bamford
        (-4)

      11. PP6
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 15 days ago

        Mitchell -> Dunk or Tierney?

        And is Salah to Auba worth -4? * not my team just helping someone out! 🙂

        1. wulfrunian
          • 4 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          Dunk.Yes.

          1. PP6
            • 2 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Thanks mate

      12. Steve The Spud
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 15 days ago

        Grealish pain free, running and expected to be back sometime in 2023

        1. Mr. O'Connell
          • 9 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          steady on, that was the anti gravity running machine Smith was referring to. Not expected to be back on grass until mid 2025.

        2. jimmyharte
          • 3 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          I know wtf poxy joke. I've kept him for a month just for this GW.

      13. Konstaapeli
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 15 days ago

        Got these + 1 FT for this week.

        Areola
        Elmo* - Dallas
        Bale - Son*
        Bamford* - Kane

        I think Son is out. Cash is back so Elmo likely to be benched. Bamford should play.

        Any point saving FH for later?

        1. The Knights Template
          • 7 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          Not really

          1. Konstaapeli
            • 4 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Thought so.

      14. The Knights Template
        • 7 Years
        4 months, 15 days ago

        Tom Freeman looks a bit like the Sheriff of Nottingham.

        1. el polako
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          The question is who looks like Lady Marion ?

      15. Ruinenlust
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 15 days ago

        Bale, Trossard, Odegaard or Auba?

        1. The Knights Template
          • 7 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          Auba

          1. Ruinenlust
            • 3 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Will he stert?

        2. OptimusBlack
          • 8 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          Go with difference Odegaard

        3. Sarri-ball
          • 11 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          Same 4 im looking at currently tempted by trossard

          1. Ruinenlust
            • 3 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Same

        4. nurav11
          • 1 Year
          4 months, 15 days ago

          Back Odegaard, he's as much of a differential as you'll get this week. Would go Odegaard, tross, auba, bale in that order

          1. Finding Timo
              4 months, 15 days ago

              Is Odegaard worth -4 hit?

          2. Jambot
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Auba, Bale, Trossard Odegaard

        5. Karan14
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          Luke Shaw or Chelsea defender which one is the better option long term?

          1. Steve The Spud
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            4 months, 15 days ago

            shaw more nailed in the league I think

          2. The Knights Template
            • 7 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Shaw bap monster

          3. Holmes
            • 7 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Probably Shaw

          4. balint84
            • 5 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Chealsea Rudiger price+cs

          5. Jamb0
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Gotta have both IMO

        6. Shark Team
          • 3 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          Why none seems to favour Son to Bale for a hit?
          Son has 1 goal in the last 11gws.
          Bale has scored 4 goals in the last 3 gws.
          Now that Spurs are out of UEL. Bale will be pretty nailed without mins managed. He has 3x more shoots than Son per game.

          1. The Knights Template
            • 7 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Son is 20 years younger than Bale.

            1. Shark Team
              • 3 Years
              4 months, 15 days ago

              But he's injured...

          2. how now brown cow
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Anyone who watched the last 2 games, including bale giving up on tracking back Orsic for the 3rd goal, would probably not agree.

          3. jimmyharte
            • 3 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Yeah forget about Bale. Spurs lost 3 0 to Brighton after the battering by Bayern. Expect the same on Sunday.

          4. 3 A
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            We already have Bale.

        7. Dybala10
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          Such an uninspiring GW.

          Normally I would be desperate to take a -4 to try and field 11 but looking at the fixtures and personal, I'm reluctant to use my two FTs on mugs like Bale, Dunk, Bamford or Auba.

          1. The Knights Template
            • 7 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Just use one. Agree entirely.

        8. Blue Moon Rising
          • 9 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          1. Son to

          A) Lingard
          B) Bale
          C) another

          2. DCL to
          A) Antonio
          B) Laca
          C) another

          3. Stones to
          A) creswell
          B) Tierney
          C) Sanchez
          D) another

          1. The Knights Template
            • 7 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            AAA

        9. wonkeydonkey
          • 2 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          Percentage chance of start in GW30 for?
          A) Canelo
          B) Stones

          1. The Knights Template
            • 7 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Insert random guess here.

        10. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          Play Martinez or Areola???

          1. The Knights Template
            • 7 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Areola

        11. jimmyharte
          • 3 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          Son to Trossard-4? Looks like I might have only 5 play with Son and maybe Grealish missing.

          Cheers

          1. Mr. O'Connell
            • 9 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Son more likely to play than Grealish

            1. jimmyharte
              • 3 Years
              4 months, 15 days ago

              no chance lol. Son 100% wont be playing, I guarantee it.

          2. popey
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            At this stage surely keep grealish and Son just incase, I wouldn't be surprised if one of them started (both desperately needed) is there no-one else you can sacrifice?

        12. Steve The Spud
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          4 months, 15 days ago

          Bale (c) let’s goooooooooo

          1. jimmyharte
            • 3 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            wise up lol

            1. Steve The Spud
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 1 Year
              4 months, 15 days ago

              All aboard Jimmy!

          2. Qaiss
            • 5 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            I like it. Probably will play near 90 as he’s fresher too.

            Do you think Doherty or Aurier will play? I own Aurier but unsure if he starts. Can’t imagine if Grealish is fit that Doherty plays though.

            1. jimmyharte
              • 3 Years
              4 months, 15 days ago

              Bale played 60 mins yday he will not be fresh. He also just been knocked out of Europa and was taken off after 60 in NLD. He aint doing sweet FA this gw.

              1. Qaiss
                • 5 Years
                4 months, 15 days ago

                Who is doing anything this GW? I suppose you’re putting it on Kane cause of FOMO, who plays for that same team as Bale?

                1. jimmyharte
                  • 3 Years
                  4 months, 15 days ago

                  Na my captain is Lingard now. removed from Kane after last night.

            2. how now brown cow
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              4 months, 15 days ago

              Aurier was poor last night, but I have little faith in Doherty personally.

              I'd lean Doherty if I had to second guess.

        13. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
          • 7 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          What to do here lads, 1FT, 4.6 ITB:

          Martinez,Button
          Cancelo,Dias,Walker,Coufal,Mitchell
          Bruno,Son,Bale,Gundo,Raphinha
          Antonio,Bamford,DCL

          That's 7 players with Son and Bam flagged

          1. Konstaapeli
            • 4 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            I think Bam will play but Son wont. So that's 6 + ft.

            I'd do Mitchell + Walker to Veltman + Tierney/Creswell for -4 and field 8 players.

            How do you own 4 city?

            1. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
              • 7 Years
              4 months, 15 days ago

              Walker Pieters sorry. What about Kane?

              1. Konstaapeli
                • 4 Years
                4 months, 15 days ago

                Didn't actually realise he was missing. But he also just played 120 mins so you might survive next week without him.

          2. nurav11
            • 1 Year
            4 months, 15 days ago

            4 City?? Which Walker is this?! However since money is no worry you could just upgrade Mitchell to Tierney or Cresswell. Or just go DCL to Kane (who will have a scary EO).

            1. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
              • 7 Years
              4 months, 15 days ago

              KWP worry my bad. Hm thinking about Kane yea.

        14. Weeb Kakashi
          • 5 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          UCL draw stream link anyone?

          1. Rotation's Alter Ego
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 10 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Think it's on UEFAs website and BTSportFootball's twitter

        15. balint84
          • 5 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          Cresswell or Bale?

          1. Miguel Sanchez
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Cresswell this week

        16. Hryszko
          • 4 Years
          4 months, 15 days ago

          Any help much appreciated?

          2FT, 5.8m in the bank so plenty to play with... At the moment, with Son out I'm only fielding 7 (if Dier plays)... Planning on WC'ing in 30/31 so any help much appreciated.

          Martinez
          Dier - Coufal - Dias
          Son - Soucek - Raph - Gundo
          DCL - Kane - Bamford

          Bench: Areola - Salah - Shaw - Stones

          1. nurav11
            • 1 Year
            4 months, 15 days ago

            Dier won't play after he played 120 mins (and hasn't been playing in the prem side for last 5 weeks), I'd take him and Salah or Gundo out for Tierney/Dunk (if you're WCing) and possibly Auba/Odegaard/Lingard. That'd get you to 8 and if you wanted to hit you could maybe bin DCL for Laca (but would advise against given CRY in GW30 and that pesky double.