Spot the Differential

Odegaard’s creativity can help provide FPL value in BGW29 and beyond

Blank Gameweek 29 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Arsenal, Fulham and Brighton and Hove Albion, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Martin Ødegaard

Can Martin Ødegaard live up to his potential and become a top FPL asset?
  • FPL ownership: 2.1%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: whu | LIV | shu | FUL | EVE

Martin Ødegaard (£6.0m) has made a real impact at Arsenal since joining from Real Madrid on loan in January.

The Norwegian international has now started seven of the Gunners’ last nine matches in all competitions, predominantly as a number 10, and has repaid his manager’s faith with important goals against Olympiacos and Tottenham Hotspur.

His displays have seen him become the focal point of the side, which is reflected in his numbers.

Since making his first league start last month, Ødegaard ranks first amongst team-mates for successful passes in the final-third and joint-top for chances created, while his total of four shots over the last two matches highlights his increasing goal threat. His ability to make himself free on the edge of the box is a really nice part of his game, and having taken a few corners too, there is lots to like.

Sunday’s 2-1 victory over Spurs in the north London derby leaves Mikel Arteta’s side 10 points adrift of the top four. However, a win against West Ham United this weekend would allow them to close the gap, and they have momentum. In fact, since Boxing Day, they sit fourth in the Premier League form table, having collected 27 points from their last 14 matches.

In a relatively short space of time, Ødegaard has become an integral part of this Arsenal side, and could be a useful budget differential for the run-in.

Tosin Adarabioyo

  • FPL ownership: 0.9%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: LEE | avl | WOL | ars | –

Fulham defender Tosin Adarabioyo (£4.5m) has been a crucial part of Fulham’s defensive improvement this season.

Before his arrival in October, the Cottagers had shipped 11 goals in their opening four matches of the campaign. However, they have gradually improved since, and have now conceded just five in their last eight outings. 

During that time, the 23-year-olds partnership with Dane Joachim Andersen (£4.5m) has helped Scott Parker’s side register five clean sheets, and with Alphonse Areola (£4.6m) excelling in goal, bringing in a Fulham defender this week could be a shrewd move.

Their opponents in Gameweek 29, Leeds United, have failed to score in four of their last five matches, while Adarabioyo’s threat from set-pieces could be another route to points, too. The centre-back has produced 15 headed attempts from set-plays this term, a team-leading total, which is particularly relevant given that defending dead-ball situations has been an achilles heel throughout Marcelo Bielsa’s time at Elland Road. 

It’s another huge game for Fulham, who currently sit in the relegation zone but can move up to 17th with a win. Beyond that, there are winnable matches against Aston Villa, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Burnley, Southampton and Newcastle United before the end of the season, so there is potential to hold their assets long-term.

Adarabioyo has established himself as a key player for Fulham this season, and with an FPL ownership of just 0.9%, could be a useful differential.

Danny Welbeck

Welbeck ready to profit from Brighton's appealing run of fixtures
  • FPL ownership: 0.4%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: NEW | mun | EVE | che | shu

Following the inclusion of Joël Veltman (£4.4m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Danny Welbeck (£5.5m).

After several substitute appearances, the 30-year-old returned to Brighton and Hove Albion’s starting XI last weekend and was central to their win, providing the assist for Leandro Trossard’s (£5.8m) second-half strike.

The former Manchester United and Arsenal forward has now been directly involved in five goals this term, despite being limited to just 15 appearances and eight starts. That suggests he can make a notable impact when on the pitch, and with Newcastle United up next, he could be worth a look.

The Magpies have been poor on the road this season, and have won just three of their 14 Premier League away games. During that time, only Leeds United have a worse expected goals conceded (xGC) total, while they also rank in the bottom three for attempts in the box and shots on target conceded.

While Brighton have often flattered to deceive under Graham Potter, the return of Adam Lallana (£6.2m) can help them kick on. Against Southampton, he was pulling the strings in a slightly deeper role, and if he can stay fit for the remainder of the season, then Albion’s survival chances will receive a massive boost.

Welbeck has a big role to play too, and could be a nice under the radar option in Blank Gameweek 29.

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942 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Herman Toothrot
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 26 days ago

    Currently on 10 starters without hits.

    Would you do Son to Auba for a hit, wildcarding in 31 with freehit in 33.

    1. linkafu
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Not for Auba

    2. Tonyawesome69 FH36
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      No. 10 is more than enough

    3. antis0cial
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      I'd hold

  2. linkafu
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 26 days ago

    Help I can choose just 1:

    Lingard or Antonio

    1. #Swish41
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Lingard on form

      1. linkafu
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Lingard over Bale?

        1. Tigers Time
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Yes that's the move I'm making.

        2. #Swish41
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Not for me, Bale can be more explosive and has a good fix in 30

    2. Keep Calm and Play On
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Lingard

    3. g40steve
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Jesse

    4. Tonyawesome69 FH36
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      I have the same options and decided Lingard over Antonio. I have Bamford, Kane and DCL and want to keep DCL for GW30 Palace

    5. antis0cial
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Lingard

  3. HMC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 26 days ago

    2ft and wc planned for 31

    would you take -4 for this lot?
    if not, which transfers to prioritise

    Salah to Auba
    Gundo to Lingard
    Stones to Dallas

    any other suggestions
    team linked

    1. HMC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      what are the moves here boys + girls....it's almost bed time here

  4. tissae
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 26 days ago

    Son -> Bale yay or nay?

    1. Keep Calm and Play On
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      I’d get rid of someone else for bale. If Son doesn’t play he should be back for Newcastle

      1. #Swish41
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        This

    2. Rog.
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      For free I’d say yeah

    3. linkafu
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Yep

    4. Tonyawesome69 FH36
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Nope

  5. Rog.
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 26 days ago

    Just for this week:

    A) Keep Son
    B) Son -> Auba (have saka) (-4)
    C) Son -> Bale (Have Kane and reg) (-4)
    D) Son -> Trossard (have veltman) (-4)

    1. Keep Calm and Play On
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      No one else without a game you can transfer for Bale?

      1. Rog.
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        On ten players + son at the moment for this week. Could do Bruno but got a lot of value tied up + already on 3 Spurs.

    2. linkafu
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 26 days ago

      C

  6. linkafu
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 26 days ago

    Who scores more points?

    A Lingard
    B Bale

    1. Keep Calm and Play On
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Gunna be close I think but I’d back Lingard

  7. Manani
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 26 days ago

    WC in 31, which 2 would you ditch this week?

    A. Holding
    B. Salah
    C. Cancelo
    D. DCL
    E. Gundogan

    replacement will be Dallas/Auba/Bale/Antonio

    1. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      A and E I think

    2. linkafu
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 26 days ago

      BC

      1. linkafu
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Or AB if Holding doesn't play anymore

    3. Toblerone52 - Hung like a H…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Sell Holding, he is not first choice, maybe salah to auba or son as well.

    4. Tonyawesome69 FH36
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      I'm selling A&B. Holding lost his place and don't want Salah anymore

    5. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Holding and Salah out for Dallas and Auba/Bale

  8. Hryszko
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 26 days ago

    Thoughts on these moves for this week? Looking to WC soon.

    Gundo > Trossard
    Dias > Dunk
    Son > Odegaard/Auba

    Would be for a -4 as I have 2FT.

    1. Hart-ake
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      I would do the Trossard move with a wc coming up.

    2. Tonyawesome69 FH36
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      I would lose Dias if you have Stones or Cancelo. I would want to keep Gundo and Son for GW30

      1. Hryszko
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Okay, I have Stones and I could get rid of Salah instead of Son, but do we know how serious Son injury is?

        1. Tonyawesome69 FH36
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          I'm losing Salah and keeping Son. Son's injury isn't as bad as initially thought. He could get patched up for a must win game against Villa or he should be fit for GW30 against Newcastle

  9. cescpistols111
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 26 days ago

    Which combo will get more points GW30 & onwards?

    Pope & Ayling
    Leno & Dallas

    1. Pukki Party
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      B

    2. Toblerone52 - Hung like a H…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      the second one

    3. linkafu
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 26 days ago

      A

    4. Tonyawesome69 FH36
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      B

    5. Hart-ake
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      B

  10. Zlatan F.C
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Can't decide between Auba, Bale or Lingard. Thoughts?

      1. Help Me!
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Bale for sure, better in long run as well. Especially with Son out

        1. Zlatan F.C
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Without Son, Spurs don't look so hot

        2. rubberdignerapids
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Lingard, Auba and Bale in that order

        3. ryacoo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Lingard

      2. Help Me!
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Plan was to play BB in GW30 and WC in GW31.
        Is it worth a hit to switch Gundogun to Lookman/Trossard/Groß?

      3. Lignja
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Martinez
        Strujik, Konsa (Cancelo, Stones, Mithcell)
        Saka, Son ( Salah, Bruno, Gundogan)
        Kane, Antonio (Dcl)

        Dcl, Mithcell to Bamford, Veltman, yes or no?

      4. rubberdignerapids
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Good to go?

        Martinez
        Reguillon, Creswell, Struijk, Burn (Shaw)
        Auba, Lingard, Bale, Raphinha (Salah)
        Kane(c), Watkins (DCL)

        0 ITB, 0 FT

        1. Tonyawesome69 FH36
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Yup

      5. The Mandalorian
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Champions league draw sets up a poor final.

        The 3 favourites are stuck in the first group and whoever wins has an easy final.

        Madrid get an easy route to the final and collect some much needed runners up money to buy players for next season.

        1. Dynamic Duos
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Liverpool will beat Madrid

      6. ASOUSA12
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Who scores highest:

        1) Kane (C) + JLingz
        2) Auba (C) + Antonio

        1. Tonyawesome69 FH36
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          1

        2. rubberdignerapids
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 26 days ago

          1

      7. damiang2233
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Free Hit this week. Thoughts on the below?

        Sanchez (Aerola)
        Creswell, Dunk, Aina, (Targett, Tierney)
        Bale, Auba, Lookman, Lingard, (Raphinha)
        Kane, Lacazette, Antonio

        Unsure on Auba playing time? Hard to choose first 11 too

        1. rubberdignerapids
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 26 days ago

          I would play Raph ahead of Lookman, you have safety on the bench in case of an Auba benching

        2. Tonyawesome69 FH36
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Prefer Adarabioyo over Aina. I would start Raphinha over Lookman

          1. damiang2233
            • 11 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Not sure about Raphinha, hasnt been firing lately and neither have leeds. With bamford injury also and fulham keeping a lot of clean sheets thats why aiming towards lookman could be wrong.

            1. Tonyawesome69 FH36
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              Just look at his stats, very unlucky not to get any FPL points in recent games. He is pretty much on all set pieces and involved in most attacks.

      8. Rhodes your boat
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        2 ft planned, foden to raphina, holgate to cresswell, what other moves to make? 0.1itb after moves

        Martinez
        Targett cresswell
        Son raphina
        Kane bamford watkins

        Areola stones shaw rudiger Salah Bruno gundo.

        1. Tonyawesome69 FH36
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          I would rather lose Salah instead of Foden. Toss-up between OOP Dallas or Cresswell who is on most set pieces

        2. HMC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          stones to dallas if you have wc left

      9. Holmes
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Wonder how much gametime Kun will get in PL games...

      10. Nightcrawler
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 26 days ago

        On FH how many of these 3 would u go for?

        A) Bale

        B) Auba

        C) Bamford

        1. Planet Jo
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          All

        2. linkafu
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Bale and Bamford. Auba could be bench

      11. Planet Jo
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Sorry going to repost from last night. Some good responses but I'm still not sure...

        I've not really been on top of this game the past few weeks. Still have WC, BB and FH.

        Should I play FH this week? I have 4x players plus Son and Bamford and 1FT. I don't mind taking a hit or two. Or save FH for later blanks/DGWs with better teams playing/blanking?

        And is there any word yet on other DGWs this season?

        Thanks for any heads-up.

      12. finnish92
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        A) Make 2 FT and have 8 players this GW
        B) Make 1 FT (7 players) and have 2 FT next GW

        My current players: Martinez, Dunk, Dallas, Raphinha, Kane (c), Watkins

      13. linkafu
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 26 days ago

        A Antonio + Lingard
        B Maupay + Lingard

        1. antis0cial
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          A

        2. linkafu
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 26 days ago

          C Antonio +Bale

        3. BERGKOP
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          So, Antonio or Maupay?

          A

      14. Deulofail
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Does the mold on a strawberry grow on the:

        A) outside only
        B) outside to the inside
        C) inside to the outside

        1. Konstaapeli
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          I'm no expert but would say B.

          1. Konstaapeli
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            The worst damage is on the outside. But it's usually bad underneath the rotten spot. Cant say if it's mold on the inside tho.

            1. Deulofail
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              Happy with that. I chopped off the bad bits, but still tastes suspiciously earthy.

      15. Pep Roulette
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Hey fam! Sell one for Cresswell. No WC or FH remaining.

        A. Maguire
        B. Stones
        C. Cancelo

        1. JBG
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          C

        2. linkafu
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 26 days ago

          C cause he will play both game with Portugal and could be bench against Leceister

          1. Tonyawesome69 FH36
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            I can't see him being benched against LEI. Pep will want to play the same team against LEI and in the UCL midweek game

        3. Holmes
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          C

        4. Tonyawesome69 FH36
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          C

        5. BERGKOP
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          C

        6. Pep Roulette
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Cheers everyone

      16. JBG
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Oh ffs... The player I have to choose from this GW are soooo uninspiring.

        It's a combo between Bale, Dunk(have Burn), Raphinha, Auba, Ødegaard and Antonio.

        And I don't really want any off them.

      17. Original - Wolves Ay We
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Would taking a hit for a Brighton defender seem a good move considering quite a few Free Hitters are doubling and even tripling up on Brighton defenders.

        1. ryacoo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          I'm wondering this too - only a +2 if they keep a standard CS though, so you're needing bonus/attacking returns really

          1. Original - Wolves Ay We
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            You have to be innit to winnit

      18. Shark Team
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Do you think Son is gonna play? If not then Bale for a hit is coming

        1. antis0cial
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          I don't think so, but it does carry a risk selling him

      19. antis0cial
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Sterling replacement...
        A) Lingard
        B) Bale
        C) Auba
        D) Ødegaard

        1. ryacoo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          A

        2. chelseabrad
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          B

        3. linkafu
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 26 days ago

          A or B... It 's so close.

      20. ryacoo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Currently got 8 plays (FT used): Martinez - Targett, Dallas - Lookman, Lingard, Raphinha - Bamford, Kane (C)

        Any else worth a -4 here?

        1. antis0cial
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Should be fine without taking a hit

      21. chelseabrad
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Gundogan > Raphinha/Lingard for a -4? Currently only 9 starters including Bamford