Pro Pundits - Andy

Vardy vs Kane, latest on Chelsea defenders and what to do with Fernandes

Even with five Gameweeks left of the season there are so many big talking points in the Fantasy Premier League community.

I have taken a closer look at the three most important ones ahead of Gameweek 34…

Vardy to Kane

There was a lot of disappointment from FPL managers who swapped Harry Kane (£11.8m) to Jamie Vardy (£10.3m) after the latter blanked. The key question is should that transfer be reversed.

Both players have pretty good fixtures in Gameweek 34 and 35:

  • Kane = Sheffield United (home), Leeds (away)
  • Vardy = Southampton (away), Newcastle (home)

As we know from Neale’s article earlier this month, there is a chance that Leicester get a Double Gameweek in Gameweek 35 which would add Manchester United into the mix. It’s not the perfect double but it does mean that Vardy has three fixtures in the next two.

We do need to take into account that if that happens it would mean Vardy and Leicester blank in Gameweek 36. So from Gameweek 34 to 36 both Kane and Vardy have the same amount of fixtures but if you delay the switch back until Gameweek 36 you can get an extra fixture.

Both players have penalties in their locker so that doesn’t differentiate them. Looking over their last six matches the stats look like this:

  • Kane = 16 shots in the box, 5 chances created, 5.64 non-pen xGI
  • Vardy = 11 shots in the box, 8 chances created, 4.05 non-pen xGI

Kane comes out on top as you might expect, but Vardy is still chipping away. Over the season their xGI per 90 is Kane (0.69) and Vardy (0.70).

The other thing to consider if Kane’s fitness. We didn’t get a proper look in the EFL Cup final as he didn’t get a huge amount of touches of the ball, so we will need to see what Ryan Mason says about his fitness.

For me I think I’d ride out the Vardy move. You have the potential of an extra fixture and can still look to make the switch in Gameweek 36. I might recommend not watching the Spurs game though…

Is it time to sell Chelsea defenders?

At this point we’re all aware of just how good Chelsea’s defence is. They’ve conceded 25.79xG so far this season, just behind Man City at 24.92, making them an elite defence.

One of the issues we have to contend with is rotation, at this point every defender including César Azpilicueta (£5.9m) has been rested, even the goalkeeper! The only thing in my mind that might reduce the amount of rotation is Chelsea are still in with a serious shot of top four in the Premier League, and Tuchel will want to put his best team out as often as possible.

Looking at the fixtures though, it may be time to jump off anyway.

Fulham (home) in Gameweek 34 and Aston Villa (away) in Gameweek 38 are their easiest fixtures left. Outside of that they have to play Manchester City, Leicester and Arsenal, as well as another Champions League semi final, and the FA Cup final.

I wouldn’t necessarily back against their defence in general, we know how good it is and they won’t concede many goals in that period, but with tougher fixtures and some fear of rotation we can probably start planning to get rid after Fulham.

Stuart Dallas (£5.3m) ends the season with Burnley, Southampton and West Brom. Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.6m) has West Brom, Burnley and Crystal Palace, while Vladimir Coufal (£4.7m) has Brighton, West Brom and Southampton.

They are all different prices so it depends on your budget, but there may be other ways to get clean sheets during the run in, depending on when you want to sell your Chelsea defender(s).

Selling Bruno Fernandes

I touched on this in my previous article and thought Bruno Fernandes (£11.5m) was probably worth keeping for Burnley and Leeds, but with another two blanks people are getting fed up.

Over the last six matches he has just one goal (a penalty vs Man City) and one assist (vs Brighton).

It’s not all doom and gloom however. Over the last six matches no other midfielder has a higher expected goal involvement than Fernandes with 4.40. Even if you remove the penalty it’s still 3.61 which would put him only behind Mohammed Salah (£12.7m).

Liverpool is a tough match and if you have your Free Hit left I think you can make a case to sell. For any potential Double Gameweeks you could still bring him back in, and as I’ve mentioned in previous articles I don’t see him as the best captaincy option at any point between now and the end of the season.

If you don’t have your Free Hit, you have a much tougher decision to make. A bit like Kane vs Vardy, Fernandes might get a Double, but he would then blank as well. So if you were thinking of selling to Son Heung-min (£9.5m) for example, they’d both have the same number of fixtures, and arguably with Sheffield United up next, Son is better in the short term.

However, you could just keep for Liverpool, hope for a Double and then look to sell in Gameweek 36, given that a double as shown in this article would be Aston Villa and Leicester.

One thing to consider though is a lot of fans think that Fernandes needs a rest, and the ideal time looking at the schedule could be against Aston Villa in Gameweek 35. He’s only not started one game this season, but with Europa League, Liverpool and Europa League to come we could see his second league benching. Top four is all but secured, and the current schedule has the second Europa League leg being played on the Thursday and then Aston Villa on the Sunday, before Leicester in midweek.

If I had him I’d be tempted to stick and hope that he’s not rested. While the points haven’t been coming in the underlying stats still look good and with a double to come it wouldn’t be a fun watch without him.

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1,302 Comments Post a Comment
  1. House Frey Wedding Planner
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Martinez
    Dias Shaw Castagne
    Salah Lingard Mount Son
    Kane Vardy Nacho

    Jota, Rudiger*, Phillips*

    Should I do:

    A - Rudiger to Dallas
    B - Rudiger to Keane
    C - Holding

    Shaw would drop to bench if A or B.

    Cheers!

    1. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      C was meant to say save transfer

    2. Lav
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Save and assess next week.

    3. TheDragon
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Save FT surely???

    4. Manani
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      save FT

      1. House Frey Wedding Planner
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 22 days ago

        Cheers guys. Worried about going into the week with just 3 defenders

  2. Lav
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    1. Coady (away vs WBA)
    2. Ayling (away vs BHA)

    1. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      2

  3. Yeezy FC
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Need to bench a midfielder...HELP!

    Foden / Pereira / Lingard / Son / Salah

    The United fan in me thinks Salah will blank lol

    1. Lav
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Foden may be rested, never know. Would probably bench Pereira if you are uncomfortable with benching Foden.

  4. Manani
    • 9 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Digne or Dallas for rest of season?

    1. Stoichkov#8
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Dallas

    2. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Dallas

    3. Lav
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Dallas, but would want some Everton defender for rest of season too.

      1. Manani
        • 9 Years
        4 months, 22 days ago

        if I get Dallas, already got my 3 'premieum' slot sorted out: TAA Dallas Reguilion

    4. KAPTAIN KANE
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Dallas

  5. KAPTAIN KANE
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Start 1:

    A) Pereira
    B) ASM
    C) Lowton

    Just bought B as part of a hit to get Kane back lol

    Thanks

    1. Big Hands Barry
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      A

      1. KAPTAIN KANE
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 22 days ago

        Cheers bro

    2. Lav
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      B

      1. KAPTAIN KANE
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 22 days ago

        Thanks, I do feel it is between A or B ultimately

    3. Bad Kompany
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      A

      1. KAPTAIN KANE
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 22 days ago

        Thanks

  6. Lacikasz01
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Keep Bruno and Vardy for the double or swap them now for Son and Kane?

    1. GOTHAM City F.C.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Wouldn't get rid Vardy with a double coming next. Maybe Bruno to Son if you must

  7. TeddiPonza
    • 11 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Pull the trigger on Jota to Siggy? have 2 FT

    1. Phlajo
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Yep

  8. Totti
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    When is the DGW? 35 or 36

    And who will play?

  9. Champions League Varane
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    So does United Leicester etc double or not? Haha

    1. Totti
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      I don’t know 😀
      I’m asking above

  10. choppers13
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Based on the announcement, I think it is logical that only the deadline for 37 moves. They keep the gw36 deadline and this gw becomes Tues-Tues.

    This means only dgws for villa, everton, saints and palace

    1. TeddiPonza
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      in gw 36 then?

      1. choppers13
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 months, 22 days ago

        yes

    2. Vjm6891
      • 1 Year
      4 months, 22 days ago

      I agree. That seems the most logical. then ther eisn't a blank GW

  11. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    DCL or Bamford for the run in?

    1. Bad Kompany
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Probably DCL because of the extra game

  12. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Can't believe I'm selling Jota with those fixtures man

    1. Bad Kompany
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Who are you selling for?

      1. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 months, 22 days ago

        I'm selling to enable DCL or Bamford

  13. TeddiPonza
    • 11 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    This announcement makes things difficult. Was thinking Jota to Siggy, but if Everton have the dgw in 36 instead of 35, that move makes no sense now.

  14. carlota
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Who would you sell: Bamford or Watkins?

  15. Champions League Varane
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Should I still roll here? Thanks.
    .1 ITB

    Martinez
    Trent Dias Azpi
    Bruno Salah Lingard Siggy
    Kelechi Kane Bamford

    Areola Burn Raphinha Rudiger.

  16. Vjm6891
    • 1 Year
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Anyone else think they won't change the gameweek "deadlines" and so you will just get those 4 games as a DGW36 instead of a big DGW35 and then a BGW36.

    I think i'm going to hold onto my wildcard (unless something else is annouced soon) as I don't have a too bad team for this week and hope it is the former.

  17. Disturbed
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Not sure on the dgw news. Is it confirmed for gw35? Activate wc?

    1. Vjm6891
      • 1 Year
      4 months, 22 days ago

      I personally think it will be GW36 with the 4 teams, but nothing confirmed

  18. Vjm6891
    • 1 Year
    4 months, 22 days ago

    want to do Stones to Alonso. I'm guessing hes likely to play to rest Chilwell for CL and hes apparently played 5 of the last 6 home games?

  19. LABILLETHEGOAT
    • 8 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    chasing leader by 40+ pts, 2FT, would you do vyrda + Jota > Wood + Pereira?

  20. Dirty_Harry
    • 12 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    I have 2FT and no clue where to use one of them.

    Any suggestions? 0.2ITB

    Mendy (Forster)
    TAA R.James Castagne
    Salah Bruno Son Lingard Jota
    Kane Nacho

    Subs: Shaw Holding Vydra

  21. MOZIL
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Start Trent or Dallas??

    1. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Oh come on, you don't bench trent man 😉

  22. bruuuno
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Ayling or Alioski rest of season?

    1. BaltimoreCity
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Ayling. More locked

  23. storr84
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Bruno & Vardy out - Kane & Son in?

    Any responses appreciated.

  24. BaltimoreCity
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Midfielder for this week only. Less than 9.0. No Man City or Spurs. Already have Lingard

    A. Siggy
    B. James Rod
    C. ASM
    D. Pereira
    E. Jota
    Other

  25. Mr Ozil
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Which is better?

    A- Coady > Coleman/Holgate for FT and bench Holding
    B- Play Holding and save FT

    1. BaltimoreCity
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      4 months, 22 days ago

      B

  26. tomong
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Should I start Vydra (WHU) over trossard (LEE) and Jota (MUN)?

  27. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 21 days ago

    Captain one:
    A) Vardy
    B) Iheanacho
    C) Son