Why chaos is an opportunity for FPL managers

It’s hard to even talk about Fantasy Premier League (FPL) right now without using words like ‘chaos’ to describe it. If chaos is ‘complete disorder and confusion’ then the shoe definitely fits. But while it might not be obvious, especially for those currently on the wrong end of it, this chaos can be a huge opportunity for those ready to take advantage of its after-effects in the coming Gameweeks.

“Chaos isn’t a pit. Chaos is a ladder.” – Petyr Baelish (aka ‘Littlefinger’), Game of Thrones

It’s easy to look at the recent spate of unanticipated fixture cancellations and feel hard done by. Without turning this into my own personal FPL therapy session, I’m pretty confident that I’ve had at least my fair share of frustrations in recent weeks and equally confident that others have fared even worse.

There is no question that the events of the past weeks have afforded some managers an advantage over others. FPL has always been a game of both luck and skill but this particular moment feels like a big tick in the column of the former rather than the latter. 

Sure, we still pick players but if matches are called off, what are we but a leaf on the breeze, blown back and forth at the whims of a callous and merciless master, toying with us for their sport. In this moment, are we not like Sisyphus, pushing a boulder up a hill only for it to roll down the other side, so that we might repeat this torment for eternity? Are we not like Tantalus, thirsty, standing in a pool of water which recedes before we may drink of it? Are we not taking this very well? Okay, yes, you could say that.

All great changes are preceded by chaos – Deepak Chopra

It might feel like the current situation is chaos but it is likely just the beginning. While we can hope that the cancellations and, of course, their causes may soon pass, from an FPL perspective, the cancellations are merely the tremors that precede the far greater tsunami, it will get a lot more chaotic in the coming weeks as double Gameweek after double Gameweek is scheduled. Throw into the equation the prospect of Chelsea missing matches in Gameweeks 24 and 25 for the Club World Cup and popular players such as Mohamed Salah (£13.1m), Emmanuel Dennis (£6.0m), Edouard Mendy (£6.2m) and Sadio Mane (£11.9m) all potentially leaving for AFCON in January, and it is clear that things are going to get interesting in the weeks ahead.

But why should this matter? We are ‘all in the same boat’ after all. The reason is that chaos is more detrimental to the elite than the masses. If you are currently ranked high up in the overall league and winning your mini leagues your logical ideal would be that player selection is dominated by a solid template and that everyone perma-captains Salah. In such a scenario, there would be little opportunity for the kind of dramatic change which might depose you.

But chaos is the tool of the revolutionary. That plucky FPL manager whose rank begins with a ‘2’ or a ‘3’ but not in a good way. This is because chaos creates confusion, chaos creates change, chaos creates opportunity and, as history tells us, it is the guy who has less to lose who is more likely to take advantage of it. Let them grow fat and content with their sub-six-figure FPL ranks and their high team values, a storm is coming.

Converting Chaos into Points

The key to converting chaos into points is to seek out the opportunities it offers but to not lean too hard into it so that you forget how to play the game. Obviously we still need to keep up to date with the double Gameweeks as they are announced and which players might be unavailable for which fixtures. Equally we should not roll so much with the punches that we forget to throw our own. A flexible plan that spans the next few weeks is still a beneficial thing to have, even if it ends up taking some unexpected directions along the way.

Existing conventions such as saving free transfers wherever possible still apply. But in times of chaos, their potential benefit is amplified. For example, if you can go into a double or triple Gameweek with two free transfers, you will probably be 4-8 points up on a lot of managers before the first ball is even kicked and far better positioned to profit from the extra matches.

On that point, it is equally important to keep your head when it comes to taking hits. By all means take a hit to take advantage of an opportunity, but remain judicious about which opportunities you pursue. Hits tend to pay off most when they offer both short and long-term benefits. Taking a hit to get a player in who you won’t want next Gameweek (particularly at the expense of a player who you will) just because they have two fixtures is almost never a good move.

Finally, these are the times where a well-thought-out, informed risk can pay off in multiples. Maybe it is time to shift the captaincy around where the fixtures suggest it, or take a punt on a lesser-owned player at the expense of a well-owned one. However free a thinker you are normally, it becomes exponentially more difficult to take these risks the more you feel you have to lose, meaning those currently ahead of you are less likely to do it.

Finally, if you see yourself among those trying to turn the current order on its head (i.e. somebody doing pretty badly in FPL), be bold in writing-off the value you’ve accrued in a player if a better opportunity presents itself. It’s amazing how paralytic an effect having money tied up in a player can be, particularly if you are ranked highly and particularly if it concerns the player(s) who got you there. Revolutionaries tend to be more ruthless with these things and that is the spirit you need in these times.

Conclusion

German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche once said; “One must have chaos to be able to give birth to a dancing star”. Personally I would forgo the dancing star for some FPL points but I get where he’s coming from. As I have been helpfully informed by everyone from randos on Twitter to my very own mother, FPL is still a game and games are supposed to be fun. It might not feel like it’s been a particularly fair game recently but it will definitely be an interesting one going forwards and, if nothing else, we may emerge as better and more complete FPL managers for it.

In my eyes, the current chaos will eventually favour those who have been on the wrong end of it the most thus far, provided they are willing to take advantage of the opportunities it presents. The key, however, is to target it, not submit to it. It is easy right now to think that decisions don’t matter and that it’s just a game of chance, but as little as realising that you do still have a say in what happens next is a bigger advantage than most people probably realise.

Be Bold. Make Mistakes. Have fun, and have a Merry Christmas.