The case for a FPL Gameweek 34 Free Hit

Since the second Free Hit chip was announced at the end of 2021, there has been almost constant discussion about which are the best Gameweeks to play them. With the near-constant stream of Double Gameweeks over the past few months and with more to come, particularly in Gameweeks 36 and 37, there has been no shortage of opinions on this question.

Gameweek 34, however, has remained largely absent from these discussions but this article will consider why a Free Hit in 34 might actually be your best option, particularly if, like me, you happen to have both Free Hit chips left.

WHAT MAKES A GOOD FREE HIT?

A good Free Hit isn’t just about racking up a great score but it must also factor in how that score compares to what your original team would have scored and, of course, the scores of other Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers. While there are no certainties in FPL, the best environment for maximising these factors would be at a point in the season where a template has formed, but that template serves the Gameweek in question quite poorly and, ideally, a Gameweek where lesser-owned options have strong fixtures.

Of the remaining Gameweeks, Gameweek 34 looks, to me, to be the most conducive to maximising the elements of a good Free Hit. Not only does it feature double fixtures for Chelsea and Manchester United, it offers attractive home fixtures for Manchester City (versus Watford), Liverpool (versus Everton) and Crystal Palace (versus Leeds). While some of these teams will be served by our existing squads, many won’t or not to the extent we would perhaps like. 

Therefore, a Gameweek 34 Free Hit offers the opportunity to really attack these good fixtures while, at the same time, avoiding trickier fixtures for the likes of Arsenal, Southampton, Aston Villa and (arguably) Tottenham Hotspur.

For managers with a second Free Hit, I would be looking at Gameweek 37 to play it and, indeed, there’s at least a decent argument for 37 being the standout Gameweek for any Free Hit. This quandary can only be answered by the individual manager given the variety in squad selection but the fact that 37 is filled with doubles and, in particular, doubles for less template-fashionable teams such as Aston Villa, Everton and Crystal Palace, means it offers a particularly high-variance opportunity for managers looking to make up ground late on.

WHY NOT GAMEWEEK 36?

Many might ask why not Gameweek 36 for the Free Hit given that it is shaping up to be the biggest remaining Double Gameweek of the season. The reason for me is twofold. Firstly, playing the Free Hit in Gameweek 36 rules out the option of playing a second one in Gameweek 37 (or indeed Gameweek 35) as Free Hits cannot be played in consecutive Gameweeks. Thus, there is this specific opportunity cost to factor in.

More broadly, however, Gameweek 36 features Double Gameweeks for teams such as Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal, Chelsea and Leicester City, all teams that are probably well-represented in our existing squads. Taking my own squad as an example, I can currently put out ten Double Gameweek players before making any transfers. They may not be the absolute ideal players, but can I really justify using a Free Hit to switch out a squad of Double Gameweek players for other Double Gameweek players? Especially given the opportunity cost of not using that Free Hit in another Gameweek where, as discussed, I believe there is potential for a bigger relative payoff. 

In my eyes, the combination of these factors, allied with the fact that there is still an opportunity to go into Gameweek 36 with two free transfers anyway means that, despite its appearance on paper, this Gameweek is not an ideal one for getting the maximum payoff from of a Free Hit.

Last but not least, and perhaps most obvious of all, Gameweek 34 is the very next Gameweek, making it, by definition, the hardest Gameweek to plan for and thus the most benefitting of a Free Hit in that respect.

If you happen to have two free transfers in hand (or indeed a Wildcard) to use right now, maybe this mitigates the advantage a little, but the added advantage you gain from being able to organise yourself specifically and immediately for Gameweek 34 shouldn’t be overlooked.

CONCLUSION

While it’s very difficult to generalise at this stage of the season, I think there is a good argument that, due to the way the fixtures fall for the rest of the season, its immediacy, the presence of a short-notice Double Gameweek for teams like Manchester United and Chelsea with top players who are, to some extent, still underrepresented in the current template and good fixtures for the likes of City and Liverpool, Gameweek 34 offers the biggest remaining upside for a Free Hit this season.

There is certainly also a strong argument that Gameweek 37 represents a good Free Hit prospect too and, if a decision must be made between the two, which one offers the most upside will have come down to the individual manager based on their own particular circumstances.

However, in my view, both Gameweeks 34 and 37 offer better Free Hit prospects than Gameweek 36, despite it being arguably a ‘bigger’ double-Gameweek. This is largely because the fixtures in Gameweek 36 reflect either the current template and/or the teams with the best fixtures for the rest of the season. In other words, if you use your free transfers to build for Gameweek 36, you are building for the whole run-in, thus if you use your Free Hit(s) in 34 and/or 37, you are likely to find the biggest opportunities for differentials and thus a greater opportunity for achieving higher upsides.