FPL Q&A: Salah v Darwin, Bueno v Patterson + going ‘anti-template’

With Fantasy Premier League (FPL) resuming on Boxing Day, we’ll be welcoming back our stellar team of Pro Pundits and Hall of Famers for the restart.

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Here, seven-time top 10k finisher Zophar answers some of the week’s most-asked questions ahead of Gameweek 17.

Boxing Day is just a few days away and in this piece, I will be answering some of the questions from the FPL community which will likely be of interest to all of us FPL managers.

Q: The general opinion seems to be that it is better to play it safe now rather than later.

As long as you know you might be risking your season, the later Wildcard offers such a reset that there may never be more opportunities to go against the template.

(via @Yoona939)

A: Rather than dive into selection dilemmas straightaway, I wanted to start with a macro strategy question. Admittedly, I might not be the best person to answer this, as my style of play is to often stick with the template picks and not necessarily look for differentials, just the best players.

However, there are lots out there who will not be happy with how the first half of the season went for them and, with the template currently looking so strong, there is an opportunity to differentiate. However, as always, we should be wary of differentiating just for the sake of being different.

With Double Gameweeks 19, 20, 21 and 23 likely, with more to come later, there are going to be plenty of opportunities to make up big ground and I think it is very important to get your ‘glue guys’ in your squad for the long-term, so you can focus your transfers on these Double Gameweeks. Start with a flexible squad so you can move to the players you want in each position in one move.

After that, pick and choose your battles. I think with just three or four players different from the template, you can still make up ground every week without risking a significant fall. Don’t try to go too hard this early, there is still a lot of time left and the ranks are still very condensed.

Q: Are we underrating Double Gameweeks this year because of last year’s Emmanuel Dennis and Joshua King fiasco?

(via @1088inde)

A: I’ve always believed that FPL is simply about picking good players from good teams. A good asset can score more in one game than a poor asset in two, as we saw in several cases last season.

What is tricky this time around is that the doubles that we know of are for good sides such as Chelsea, Spurs, Arsenal and Manchester City, all with good FPL assets. Fulham are an attacking team too.

However, the doubles for three of the four London sides include a fixture against Manchester City, which makes the ceiling slightly lower.

So, while we should still absolutely invest in these sides, I think some balance is necessary. I won’t be investing in Fulham’s defence, whilst I might go into Chelsea’s double without an attacker unless one emerges.

Also, it’s going to involve hits for players you might only want for one week, which needs to be factored in.

Q: Both Mohamed Salah and Darwin Nunez, or just one of them? And which one? Liverpool haven’t scored many away from home and have a lot of such games to come.

(via @Krooninho)

A: I am not a firm believer in the ‘too many eggs in one basket’ theory, I have mentioned the phrase ‘basket-wasting’ several times in the past so won’t repeat myself here.

If you believe that Liverpool and Mohamed Salah (£12.8m) will resume where they left off, with much-improved attacking numbers, then doubling up should absolutely be on the cards.

If you are uncertain about it, then spreading the risk is a fair call but having one should not put you off the other. They are both good picks in their own right and must be weighed up against other alternatives in their respective positions.

In my opinion, the injuries to Luis Diaz (£7.8m) and Diogo Jota (£8.8m) have made Darwin a bit of a must-have. He is a big chance monster and, as he showed in the Carabao Cup last night, he is often wasteful in front of goal but I think that will improve with match sharpness.

In terms of value, I think Darwin Nunez (£9.0m) offers similar potential to Salah at a significantly lower price although, if captaincy was more of a factor, I would lean towards the Egyptian.

However, I don’t see myself captaining Salah during the next five Gameweeks so I would choose Darwin. The double-up is still very reasonable though, as Liverpool are top over the last six Gameweeks for goal attempts (100), shots in the box (72), shots on target (39) and big chances (23).

Q: Nathan Patterson or Hugo Bueno as the fifth defender?

(via @bits_fpl)

A: This is a question I’m trying to answer for myself! Hugo Bueno (£3.9m) was impressive for Wolves in their last friendly, getting forward a lot and even taking some set pieces. When Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.2m) was brought on, Bueno stayed on.

Jonny (£4.4m) is currently injured and, from what I’ve read and heard from Wolves fans, the shirt is currently Bueno’s to lose. I expect Julen Lopetegui to shore up their defence too and ‘every little helps’ when needing that extra £0.1m over Nathan Patterson (£4.0m). There is definitely competition for his shirt though, that is undeniable.

At Everton, Patterson is a more nailed-on pick and will likely only drop out of the side if he gets injured. He has shown some attacking potential too, with an assist in his last friendly.

Idrissa Gueye (£4.9m), Amadou Onana (£4.8m) and Yerry Mina (£4.3m) are all fit, so the Toffees’ defence should also be strong. There is also a chance that Everton have a Double Gameweek 21, although the two trips to Arsenal and West Ham hardly scream points to me.

It’s unlikely that you will often need that fifth defender, as the eighth attacker or fourth defender will step in beforehand so I think it is fine to save £0.1m there, especially if your team value isn’t the greatest.

Further questions were asked about the ranking of premium midfielders and £8.0m assets but that is largely subjective and I don’t believe there is a right or wrong answer, with the second half being virtually like a new season.

We have discussed these issues at length on the Gameweek 17 Pod of the FPL Wire and it would simply be too voluminous to detail them all in this piece.

I hope you are as excited as I am for the season resuming, it promises to be a rollercoaster ride either way with so many Double Gameweeks on the horizon.

On behalf of myself, the FPL Wire team and the entire Scout family I wish you all a Merry Christmas.

See you next week.