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FPL promoted sides: Who are the best players from Luton’s attack?

We continue our series on the newly-promoted Premier League sides with this look at Luton Town’s attacking options for 2023/24.

You can read a profile of Luton manager Rob Edwards here, with a guide to the Hatters’ Fantasy Premier League (FPL) defenders available to view here.


The stats in this piece are taken from WhoScored, Fotmob and FBref.


WHAT IS LUTON’S GOAL-SCORING POTENTIAL IN FPL?

PWDLFAGDPTS
Total46211785739+1880
Home2310943121+1039
Away2311842618+841

Luton’s fairytale story has been their meteoric rise through the divisions, being promoted four times in ten seasons, but their start to this particular campaign was slow. Just two wins arrived in their first nine matches, losing to Wigan Athletic, Bristol City and Preston North End along the way.

What pushed the Hatters up the league into a third-place finish was defence rather than attack. Their 57 goals were the lowest within the top six, Edwards’ side drawing a blank in 10 of their matches.

Not since Huddersfield Town went up in 2016/17 has a side scored fewer goals and ascended to the Premier League. Indeed, of the 42 teams to get promoted to the top flight over the last 13 seasons, Luton are ranked 41st for goals scored.

Interestingly, considering most post-promotion focus has been on their small, unfashionable stadium, Luton gained more points (albeit while scoring five fewer goals) away from Kenilworth Road.

2022/23 total (rank v other Championship clubs)
Goals scored57 (8th=)
Shots554 (11th)
Shots in the box383 (8th=)
Shots on target174 (11th)
Attempts from set plays168 (5th)
Attempts from counter-attacks11 (21st=)
Expected goals (xG)58.2 (8th)

Looking deeper into their underlying attacking stats, we can see that the tally of 57 goals was about right – close to the 58.2 expected goals (xG). They’re eighth for shots inside the box but rank even lower for total attempts and shots on target.

The article on Edwards discusses a playing style which tends to be direct and powerful using high pressing and long passing. It’s about getting the ball in shooting positions as soon as possible, so it’s no surprise to see them low on shots from counter-attacks (joint-21st) and amongst the best for set-piece threat (5th).

All in all, it doesn’t bode well for goals in the top flight.

PLAYER-BY-PLAYER

2022/23: APPS, GOALS AND ASSISTS

PlayerPositionStarts (Sub apps)MinsGoalsAssists
Carlton MorrisFWD44 (3)3693207
Elijah AdebayoFWD42 (3)352385
Jordan ClarkMID37 (4)339034
Allan CampbellMID38 (5)327332
Pelly-Ruddock MpanzuMID27 (6)239431
Luke BerryMID4 (19)69530
Cauley WoodrowFWD5 (22)74121
Luke FreemanMID10 (16)98821
Harry Cornick*MID7 (12)74013
Cameron Jerome*FWD0 (21)33311
Henri Lansbury*MID6 (4)45810
Marvelous Nakamba**MID19 (1)172600

*has now left the club
**on loan

The only player to reach double figures over these 49 matches is Carlton Morris, with no midfielder exceeding three goals.

Indeed, centre-back Tom Lockyer, profiled in our defenders article, scored on more occasions than any of his team-mates in the engine room.

CARLTON MORRIS

FPL promoted sides: Who are the key men in Luton Town's attack?

Incredibly, Luton have reached the Premier League despite only twice spending over £1m on a player. Morris is one of these, arriving from Barnsley last summer for a club-record fee of almost £2m.

The acquisition of the 27-year-old has been a masterstroke, with Morris ending as the Championship’s third-top scorer behind Chuba Akpom and Viktor Gyokeres.

His 20 goals are considerably more than his xG of 15.00, suggesting he’s capable of making the most of limited opportunities – and they surely will be limited when he makes the step up in class.

Of the regular starters in the Luton squad, Morris had the best rate of shots and efforts in the penalty box:

PlayerAppsMinsMins per shotMins per shot in six-yard boxMins per shot in penalty area (excl. six-yard box)
Cauley Woodrow2774123.2370.535.3
Carlton Morris47366229.5183.144.7
Luke Berry2267237.333661.1
Elijah Adebayo45350737.7175.455.7
Luke Freeman2698847988164.7
Jordan Clark41335953.31119.7112

His rate of chances created (one every 69 minutes) was also better than any of the midfielders that finished the campaign as first choices in Edwards’ engine room, namely Jordan Clark, Marvelous Nakamba and Pelly Ruddock-Mpanzu.

Morris could also be on spot-kicks: he took the latest in-match penalty and scored it, having seen Cauley Woodrow and Elijah Adebayo miss the previous two efforts from 12 yards.

As the highest scorer from all three promoted sides, expect an FPL starting price of around £6.0m.

A word of warning, though: he does like a yellow card, having been booked on 11 occasions in the campaign just gone.

ELIJAH ADEBAYO

FPL promoted sides: Who are the key men in Luton Town's attack? 1

Adebayo is, like his strike partner Morris, without Premier League experience, having been loaned out to several League Two teams whilst at Fulham.

Unlike Morris, his season’s xG has gone in the opposite direction: seven pre-playoff goals but with 12.90 expected.

This -5.90 underachievement was a league-high and partly explains why he’s so far down from his 16 goals of 2021/22.

Then, the 6ft 4in Adebayo combined well with Harry Cornick in a higher-scoring team but he is equally effective now alongside Morris, as his aerial threat is a huge asset.

He and Morris were ranked third and second for headed efforts in the Championship last season, as well as joint-first for shots in the six-yard box.

FPL will likely price him cheaper than Morris, perhaps at £5.5m.

OTHER OPTIONS

Of the current crop, and before Luton dip into the transfer market, there really isn’t much appealing from the Hatters’ midfield from an FPL perspective.

With a lot of the creativity coming from the wing-backs and much of the goal threat provided by the front two, no Luton midfielder delivered more than seven attacking returns in 2022/23.

Jordan Clark, the scorer of their play-off goal at Wembley and semi-frequent set-piece taker, is probably the pick of the bunch. His 63 shots rank some distance behind Morris and Adebayo but way ahead of all others, while he also came third for xG (5.30) and key passes (48).

Those are middling figures in a wider context, though: wing-back Doughty created more chances in much less game-time, while almost half of Clark’s 63 efforts came from outside the area.

By the time of the play-offs, Clark had pushed Allan Campbell onto the bench and the Scottish international played just seven minutes of the three matches. A minutes-per-shot average of 105.6 suggests that even if Campbell did reclaim his place, he wouldn’t offer FPL managers much.

Elsewhere, the likes of Cauley Woodrow, Luke Freeman and Luke Berry are fringe players who can’t be considered good FPL options unless there is a Lundstram-style reboot in pre-season, whilst Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu hasn’t exceeded five goal involvements in any of his four Championship seasons and averaged less than one shot per game in the campaign just gone.

Marvelous Nakamba, an astute loan signing from Aston Villa, was deployed as the shielding number six and didn’t deliver a single attacking return.

Who played the most minutes over the March international break?

FPLMarc Newcastle fan that spends far too much time thinking about FPL.

22 Comments Post a Comment
  1. The Knights Template
    • 10 Years
    10 months, 10 days ago

    If Neymar goes to Luton he will be the fulcrum of the attack and I will select him in mine team (even though he doesn’t have a beard).

    1. TheBiffas
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 10 days ago

      When I saw this article with '1 comment', I knew it was you Mr Knight

  2. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
    • 14 Years
    10 months, 10 days ago

    The real question is surely what is the likely few that will stay with Luton when Luton sign new players?
    Surely articles like this are fairly pointless as Luton will need to strengthen their side?
    Such articles much more beneficial much closer to the start of the PL season?

  3. TanN
    • 3 Years
    10 months, 10 days ago

    Realistically no one will own Luton players beside for bench fodder perhaps

    1. Arteta
      • 8 Years
      10 months, 10 days ago

      And Luton Town fans.

      1. Andy_Social
        • 11 Years
        10 months, 10 days ago

        They'll be cheap as chips. If any of them surprise us by knowing where the goal is, they'll be an easy bandwagon to jump on.

  4. Countess Weffie von Wobbego…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    10 months, 10 days ago

    One week until fixtures released. I can last that long. Maybe.

  5. FPL price manipulators are …
    • 10 Years
    10 months, 10 days ago

    Wouldn't it be convenient to house the Luton players in the houses next to the stadium? It will reduce travel and fatigue for home games significantly. They could even pop home at half time for some Jaffa Cakes.

    1. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 10 days ago

      They could have zip-lines from their bedroom windows straight into the ground!

      1. Andy_Social
        • 11 Years
        10 months, 10 days ago

        These strikers described above will keep smashing the ball through their windows!

        1. The Knights Template
          • 10 Years
          10 months, 10 days ago

          The Space X 9!

  6. Botman and Robben
    • 7 Years
    10 months, 10 days ago

    Wonder where Mac10 will line up in the LIV squad.

    1. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      10 months, 10 days ago

      The obvious spot is where Curtis Jones plays, but I think they need a second 1st team midfielder, in which case the whole set-up will be rejigged.

    2. Arteta
      • 8 Years
      10 months, 10 days ago

      MacAllister will simply replace Henderson (or Jones) in the current system. I'm expecting more assists than goals from him in the coming season.

    3. TheBiffas
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 10 days ago

      He's wearing the number 10 again, if you can take anything from that

      1. Make Arrows Green Again
        • 7 Years
        10 months, 10 days ago

        Oh no - does that mean we won't be losing the cringiest nickname in football anytime soon?

        1. TheBiffas
          • 3 Years
          10 months, 10 days ago

          Seems so 🙁 I much prefer "Macca"

        2. x.jim.x
          • 9 Years
          10 months, 10 days ago

          Cringier than Arsenal fans calling Saka “Starboy”?

          1. Make Arrows Green Again
            • 7 Years
            10 months, 10 days ago

            Starboy is a bit lame, but I mean:

            There is a kind of magic stick and if you press a button on it you can make people die without having to be very close to them. For some reason, some people makes the weilder interesting, cool or tough ....why not use the name of one of the types of magic stick as a nickname?... not for me.

          2. Joey Jo-Jo Junior Shabadoo
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            10 months, 10 days ago

            I thought that was the nickname Utd fans used for Greenwood? Until... well, you know. The thing.

          3. Grande Tubarão
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            10 months, 9 days ago

            You were calling Rashford Trashford when he was 17. Not sure you’re the guy to be calling people out over nicknames