Team Guides

FPL promoted sides: How strong is Luton’s defence?

We continue our series on the newly-promoted Premier League sides with this look at Luton Town’s defensive options for 2023/24.

You can read a profile of Luton as a team and their manager Rob Edwards, with fan input from FPL Brickie, here.


The stats in this piece are taken from WhoScored, Fotmob and FBref.


WHAT IS LUTON’S DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL IN FPL?

PWDLFAGDPTS
Total46211785739+1880
Home2310943121+1039
Away2311842618+841

While their attack only ranks as the Championship’s joint-eighth-best of 2022/23, it was at the back where Luton excelled.

Only champions Burnley conceded fewer goals and kept more clean sheets than the Hatters’ 39 and 20 respectively. Nine of the initial 46 matches saw them let in multiple goals.

Interestingly, considering most post-promotion focus has been on their small, unfashionable stadium, Luton were better away from Kenilworth Road for both points and goals conceded. No team allowed their hosts to score less often (18).

2022/23 total (rank v other
Championship clubs)
Clean sheets20 (2nd=)
Goals conceded39 (2nd)
Shots conceded487 (7th)
Shots on target conceded122 (1st)
Goals conceded from open play20 (1st=)
Goals conceded from set plays and penalties13 (7th=)
Expected goals conceded (xGC)43.80 (2nd)

Furthermore, nobody relinquished fewer shots on target (122) or goals from open play (20), Luton also ranking second for expected goals conceded (xGC, 43.80).

Things are set to be much tougher in the top flight, although recent seasons usually see one of the three promoted defences coping fairly well. For example, the Fulham of last season (Bernd Leno admittedly had much to do with their achievements), 2021/22’s Brentford, the Sheffield United of 2019/20 and Wolverhampton Wanderers from 2018/19.

PLAYER-BY-PLAYER

2022/23: DEFENSIVE APPS, GOALS AND ASSISTS

PlayerPositionStarts (Sub apps)MinsGoalsAssists
Tom LockyerCB42 (0)363841
Gabriel OshoCB25 (5)227330
Alfie DoughtyLWB28 (3)243825
Reece BurkeCB15 (7)141720
Amari’i BellCB/LWB46 (1)416711
Daniel PottsCB24 (2)202010
Cody DramehRWB19 (0)158102
James Bree*RWB27 (0)243004
Sonny Bradley*CB14(5)121900

*has now left the club

ALFIE DOUGHTY

FPL promoted sides: Who are the key men in Luton Town's attack? 2

Of most interest will be Alfie Doughty.

He’s played in a number of positions in his nomadic career (Luton are his fourth Championship club and he’s still only 23), from left-winger to full-back.

But it’s at left-wing-back where he was deployed in the Hatters’ promotion-winning campaign.

It took until their 15th match for the summer signing to get his first start but he went on to become a big part of their attacking plan, becoming a favourite of Edwards after his autumn appointment.

Getting the ball out wide to the wing-backs for crosses has been key to Luton’s approach.

No Hatters players have averaged more touches per 90 minutes under Edwards than their wing-backs, Doughty and Cody Drameh.

Indeed, Doughty’s rate of 41.3 minutes per chance created is the best of the squad that Edwards still has at his disposal:

PlayerPositionAppsMinsMins per chance created
James Bree*RWB27243040.5
Alfie DoughtyLWB31243841.3
Henri Lansbury*CM1045841.6
Cody DramehRWB19155055.4
Luke FreemanAM2698865.9

*now left the club

His average of 2.4 accurate crosses per game was also unbeaten in the whole of the Championship.

As for goal threat, a shot every 76.2 minutes was the best of the Luton defenders in 2022/23 and a decent rate. For context, that’s a similar average to what Ivan Perisic was posting this season (albeit in a more competitive league).

Left-footed, Doughty is on most set-pieces and FPL should categorise him as a defender given the wing-back role – but high-profile mistakes have been made with newly promoted players in the past…

If he is listed as a defender, Doughty could become an interesting pick, with Luton having just boasted the Championship’s second-best backline.

TOM LOCKYER

FPL promoted sides: Who are the key men in Luton Town's defence?

Centre-back Tom Lockyer has captained the side in the absence of the exiting Sonny Bradley and stepped up at the right time by scoring in three of his last four appearances – which doesn’t include his very early withdrawal at Wembley’s play-off final.

Further news is awaited on what the reasons were behind his collapse in the win over Coventry City but he has been discharged from hospital and is expected to return for pre-season training.

The Wales international recently scooped several versions of the club’s ‘Player of the Season’ awards, so he should be the most nailed-on centre-back at the club in the coming campaign.

He’s one of Luton’s main threats from set plays, with 26 of his 32 efforts coming from free-kicks and corners.

That shot total (32) was matched by Doughty in much less game-time, however.

Ranking third for clearances and joint-fifth for blocks in the Championship last season, he might also be good for a bonus point or two if and when Luton keep a clean sheet.

An anticipated price of £4.5m feels about right for Lockyer ahead of his debut Premier League campaign.

GABRIEL OSHO

Gabriel Osho had a stop-start campaign thanks to injury and suspension but was ended up first choice as the right-sided centre-half.

Creating little from centre-back (despite the occasional foray forward) and lagging just behind Lockyer for minutes per shot (118.5 v 113.7) as well as clearances, blocks and interceptions, he’d be a harder sell as a Fantasy asset if he’s priced up the same as his team-mates.

He did find the net on three occasions, at least, including once in the play-off semi-final.

AMARI’I BELL

FPL promoted sides: Who are the key men in Luton Town's defence? 1

Amari’i Bell finished the season as a left-sided centre-back but was playing in Doughty’s position for a while.

He started 46 of Luton’s 49 league and play-off matches, bagging a solitary goal and assist.

Less of a goal threat than Doughty, Lockyer and even Osho, he averaged a shot only once every 275.7 minutes.

His assist potential was predictably skewed by his stint at wing-back, with only seven of his 29 chances created arriving from centre-half.

ETHAN HORVATH + CODY DRAMEH

FPL promoted sides: Who are the key men in Luton Town's defence? 2

Two loanees are grouped together here as there is uncertainty about whether either player will be donning a Luton shirt next season, despite them playing pivotal roles in the promotion-winning campaign.

Goalkeeper Ethan Horvath started all but two of this season’s league matches, bringing Champions League experience to Edwards’ side.

Luton and West Bromwich Albion stoppers combined to make the joint-fewest stops (92) and Horvath’s 74.2% save rate ranked fourth-best.

In matching with the Hatters’ direct playing style, goal kicks had an average length of 57.8 yards – perhaps that route-one approach could even lead to an FPL assist or two.

Should his move be made permanent, Horvath could be among the leading £4.5m contenders between the sticks, aiming for the sweet spot between not playing for a leaky backline but still collecting regular save points.

As for Cody Drameh, we’ve already discussed in Doughty’s section how important wing-backs are to Edwards’ side.

Operating on the right flank, Drameh joined Luton on loan in January and was immediately thrust into his new manager’s starting XI.

Also playing a role at set plays, his chance creation rate was not too far off Doughty’s (55.4 v 41.3 mins per chance created).

Goal attempts were few and far between, however, with just seven shots (four of which were from outside the area) arriving in his 19 appearances.

OTHER OPTIONS

Sonny Bradley has now left the club after the expiration of his contract, the club captain and one-time regular at centre-half having his season decimated by injury and then reduced to being a back-up option when fit.

Reserve centre-backs are also what Daniel Potts and Reece Burke effectively became under Edwards, although neither was too far away from the first team.

A hamstring injury to Potts in January caused a three-month absence, with the successes of Doughty/Bell down the left flank meaning that he never regained his place in the run-in.

It was a toss-up between Burke and Osho for the right-sided centre-back role for a while, too, although the latter cemented his place for the play-offs.

Haaland Foden


FPLMarc Newcastle fan that spends far too much time thinking about FPL.

66 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Sheffield Wednesday
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 27 days ago

    So Alfie Doughty or Tom Lockyer. Check.

    1. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      Possibly neither.

      1. Tomerick
        • 9 Years
        11 months, 26 days ago

        Likely neither of the prices are anything like last season as there’ll be comparably priced players at better teams.

    2. 3 A
      • 8 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      I'll go for Alfie if their fixture is excellent , compare to other 4.5.

      Sofascore rate Alfie more than Tom even Tom is their captain.

  2. Haa-lala-land
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 27 days ago

    Loving the orange coloured text.

    If Kane goes abroad as is rumoured as a possibility, we will have Haaland as the only striker priced over 10m in the game.
    Has this happened before?

    Who would be priced the closest? I'd guess either Jesus or Jota at 9 at best.

    This is of course assuming Luton don't sign Mbappe.

  3. DBW - Slug's Mortgage …
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 26 days ago

    Great to see Chel$ea get gazumpt by P$G for Ugarte.

    They are really heading down the bog.

    1. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      Too right. Suddenly Boehly's not willing to overpay! Well, better late than never, I guess.

  4. Je suis le chat
    • 10 Years
    11 months, 26 days ago

    Haaland hasn't done much the last number of games, suspect his output will regress next season as defenders target him.

    1. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      I’ve never liked him!

    2. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      Target him? He's a bulldozer!

      1. 3 A
        • 8 Years
        11 months, 26 days ago

        Yes.. but dont think other defenders far behind in term of physical.

        Maybe Haaland still win with quality of his technique, speed and 'eager' as he is still young.

    3. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      He's only starting PL level. He'll be smarter to their tactics.

      1. NotNowKato
        • 11 Years
        11 months, 26 days ago

        He's the new Ibra

  5. CONNERS
    • 5 Years
    11 months, 26 days ago

    Given the adjusted/reduced pricing of goalkeeper and defenders last season,
    perhaps all defenders from promoted sides should be priced at 4.0m?

    After all, how many of us would pick a Luton defender ahead of one from an established, mid-table PL team?

    1. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      I think they should, unless they have previous PL experience. I think non-nailed defenders from bottom-half/mid-table sides should be 4.5, with nailed mid/bottom-half defenders being 5m.

    2. bitm2007
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      4.0m for the majority starting promoted defenders and 4.5m for those with attacking threat would be fine by me. I'd like to see the pricing thresholds changed to better reflect how players are preforming during the season however. Players like Ben White and TAA finishing on the same number of points but with vastly different prices (5m and 7.8m) doesn't sit right with me, When the base threshold of 4.0m is taken into account you were effectively playing 3.8 times more to get TAA over White despite both players scoring the same number of FPL point and playing a similar amount of minutes during the season that can't be right.

      1. Andy_Social
        • 11 Years
        11 months, 26 days ago

        TAA was the highest-coring defender in the 2021/22 season, and White wasn't even a starter for Arsenal at the beginning of the season, so the differential was fair enough.
        You could make the point that price changes should be more volatile, with TAA's price dropping more sharply as people dumped him and White rising more steeply as he was bought.

        1. bitm2007
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          11 months, 26 days ago

          Yes that's what I think should happen.

  6. Will Alexis Mac Allister be a good FPL option at Liverpool?
    TheBiffas
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 26 days ago

    Mac Allister playing for Liverpool could be a great option at around £7m, he won't be on pens tho

    1. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      I suspect he'll be a bit more, but he could be on pens - Salah's not been the best. It's a doubt that Klopp would have him nailed in the First XI from the start of the season though.

      1. TheBiffas
        • 3 Years
        11 months, 26 days ago

        With the state of our current midfield, plus him having the whole summer to settle in, I'd be surprised if he doesn't come straight into the starting XI

    2. 3 A
      • 8 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      Not for me. He score 60% of his goals this season from penalty spot.

      1. Haa-lala-land
        • 3 Years
        11 months, 26 days ago

        I guess it will be Grob on pens for Brighton if and when McAllister goes?

        1. 3 A
          • 8 Years
          11 months, 26 days ago

          Yeah, maybe Gross is next in line.

    3. Haa-lala-land
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      He's a non option at Liverpool, he won't ever play there as a 10.
      And there's no chance Salah gives up pens, nor should he.

      1. TheBiffas
        • 3 Years
        11 months, 26 days ago

        I think he'll rack up assists. We've been sorely lacking a creative midfielder - that's what he's been brought in for

        1. Haa-lala-land
          • 3 Years
          11 months, 26 days ago

          Do you reckon he will? I'm not so sure because of Liverpool's formation. If McA plays in one of the three centre mid positions, he'll only be assisting the assister at best.

          1. Andy_Social
            • 11 Years
            11 months, 26 days ago

            Curtis Jones finished the season pretty well and warrants more minutes next season, and Thiago's too good to bench when fit. For Mac A to have a regular starting spot, he'll need to stay deeper.

            1. I Member
              • 8 Years
              11 months, 26 days ago

              Don't agree with this at all. He won't play CDM in their midfield three.

              1. TheBiffas
                • 3 Years
                11 months, 26 days ago

                Agreed

    4. I Member
      • 8 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      Think he could be a good option but would want him to be cheaper than 7m.

      1. TheBiffas
        • 3 Years
        11 months, 26 days ago

        I agree but I don't think we'll get as much value from £7m next season as we did last, we were spoiled with rashford / martinelli / odegaard / brighton mids

        1. I Member
          • 8 Years
          11 months, 26 days ago

          6.5m would be reasonable in my opinion. They need to factor in him not being on penalties. I could still be tempted at 7m though. Like you said above, I feel there's plenty of attacking returns for him feeding Liverpool's plethora of attacking talent.

    5. Maradona Kebab
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 6 days ago

      It's probably best to wait and see which position he will play in the midfield in pre-season friendlies. If he gets forward well and is 7m or less than that's promising, but if he sits in front of the defense then he's a poor option assuming Salah stays on pens.

  7. Earn your Spurs
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    11 months, 26 days ago

    Honest question as I don't know the answer, do FFP regulations apply to all countries including Saudi Arabia? It seems crazy they can use their oil money to pay so much with so little revenue in return

    1. ritzyd
      • 6 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      FFP is a UEFA thing so only covers clubs and countires playing under the uefa federation (basically europe - Union of European Football Associations) therefore there is no FFP for Saudi Arabia who play under the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) who do not currently have anything simialr to FFP. Saudi Teams play in the AFC champions league for example.

    2. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      Regulations aren't an issue. Applying the regulations is. They should apply to all owners regardless where the owners are from. Everyone knew Abramovic's ties with Putin but once it was a bad look he had to go. Newcastle new owners welcomed with open arms though? Sure Pablo Escobar laundered his money through football at one time. Hard to believe that PL, UEFA and FIFA are not ignoring some dodgy dealings in football for their own benefit.

  8. Arteta
    • 8 Years
    11 months, 26 days ago

    Liverpool are getting Mac Allister for less than £45m. This is madness. What a steal!

    1. bitm2007
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      Only 6 less than City paid for Haaland.!

      1. GreennRed
        • 12 Years
        11 months, 26 days ago

        Haaland's on 10m per week though 😉

      2. DBW - Slug's Mortgage …
        • 3 Years
        11 months, 26 days ago

        Haalands agent got about £50m too

    2. notlob legin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      That's great business. I'd read about £60m - sounds like a real bargain

    3. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      He's not the CDM we need.

      But in Klopp we trust I guess.

      1. TheBiffas
        • 3 Years
        11 months, 26 days ago

        We will probably sign a CDM aswell

  9. BROOKLYN GOONER
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    11 months, 26 days ago

    They'll have to pay the difference by giving Mac Allister a better contract.

  10. Pepeye
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 26 days ago

    Haaland's annual salary at Man City is 19,500,000

    1. Grande Tubarão
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      Must be more than that? That’d only put him level with DDG

  11. Pepeye
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 26 days ago

    Mino Raiola, Haaland's agent was paid £34,551,685 24p (40 miilion Euros) for his transfer to Man City

    1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 14 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      But is he happy? 😀

      1. DBW - Slug's Mortgage …
        • 3 Years
        11 months, 26 days ago

        Shouldn't make jokes of the dead. Unless they were horrible.

      2. El Presidente
        • 4 Years
        11 months, 26 days ago

        His children are

  12. Black Knights
    • 12 Years
    11 months, 26 days ago

    Bit annoying the the 'Fantasy Football Scout' logo/home page link disappears when you scroll down the page.

    Would be good to keep it as part of the banner if possible. Otherwise it's a big long scroll back up the page if you want to check you've got the latest article.

    1. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      Scroll'n, scroll'n, scroll'n
      Where the heck's Tibollom?
      Rawhiiiiiide!

    2. Freshy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      Actually you can click where it was and you go back to the home page. Its like it never left. Just hidden.

    3. Stout scout
      • 14 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      There's a link to the home page in the blank space at the left of the main menu. Not the greatest website design, I must admit.

    4. Philosopher's Stones
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      Every 60 seconds in Africa, a minute passes.

  13. Freshy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    11 months, 26 days ago

    Ultimate long distance cracker from Hulk
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1665374033636909056

    1. TheBiffas
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      What a monster he was for Zenit

  14. Shark Team
    • 6 Years
    11 months, 26 days ago

    Is Liverpool challenging for the title with this lineup?
    Alisson, Pavard Konate VVD Robbo, Fabinho TAA MacA, Diaz Jota Salah

    1. DBW - Slug's Mortgage …
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      No

    2. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      Nah

  15. panda07
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    11 months, 26 days ago

    @FPLVirgin where is your post complaining that there hasn't been a write-up on Ange Postecoglou yet? If you are going to get the Joint Editor gig you need to be highlighting things like this.

    1. panda07
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      P.S. can I take over the roll of Chief Complainer if you get the gig?

      1. panda07
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        11 months, 26 days ago

        *role

    2. panda07
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 26 days ago

      https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2023/06/05/fpl-promoted-sides-what-is-sheff-utds-clean-sheet-potential/?hc_page=1&hc_sort_by=comment_date#hc_comment_25913853
      Ah alcohol, once again you have made a fool of me in front of real people. You need to get up very early to catch out FPLVirgin but I'll keep on fighting the good fight!