As always, our Sunday members’ regular delves into the data of the matches played out so far. This time around, Arsenal’s attack, Swansea’s in-form frontman, the Hammers’ raiding left-back and Southampton’s new wide man are amongst our evening assessment.
There is no decision to make
arent they likely to investigate that foul?
OMG this is still going on. There won't be any action. Wasn't even a proper stamp
No, ref saw it and gave nothing. It was nothing really anyway, yellow at most
- The confidentiality of price changes in FPL
Long post warning:
Does anyone else think its nonsense that FPL don’t just disclose the data on how close players are to changing in price?
Couple of GWs ago I was looking to get Aguero and Sakho in over the international break. The transfers left me with £nil in the bank but I was reluctant to do them early with the injury prone Aguero and several members of my team having up to 180 minutes of international football to get through. I knew I was going to have to do the transfers early as both were getting transfers in but wanted to wait a little and both the price change sites and me looking at the FPL data led me to think I had a few days longer than it turned out I did before Sakho rose, which priced me out of the moves.
FPL is about predicting which players will score well/badly and making the right decisions based on these predictions. Having the ability to make these decisions taken away by unexpected price changes is simply frustrating. I emailed FPL to ask why its necessary to hide the information and gave the context of my gripe. They took about 2 weeks to come up with this reply:
“We believe that providing information on when and by how much the players will change in price would create an opportunity for users to exploit the system to their advantage and the game would become unfair.”
So, the information bring available to everyone would give people an unfair advantage? What a load of nonsense. Sure, it would benefit those that pay attention to it but that’s no different to gaining an advantage through studying fixtures/stats.
Now, I’m only posting this because I’m seriously pissed about the 65 points its cost me but does anyone else think FPL should just give the info? My fault but still… I ended up backing out of getting Aguero until this week, and financed it by doing Silva to Chadli, then with the extra money got the more expensive and ‘better’ Welbeck over Sakho. Those 65 points (yes, that’s after deducting the points I got instead) mean I’m 435k instead of 18k. Feels like my season has been completely killed by it.
no
Agree with everything though there will be a few trying to outsmart themselves here
The games all about planning and what more.important than keeping check of the prices? Just adds an unnecessary element of luckExactly, people trying to be too clever and maximising profit will end up taking hits and not picking the right players.
okay I agreekeeping such information seems unneccessary
but knowing that information would have saved you?Yes I'd have taken the risk of international injuries and got Sakho before his rise.
Nice comment. I've given up on the price rises. I can afford anyone I want with a 4 point hit and I guess it's the same for most. I prefer the previous method...whatever that was.
I completely agree. Their argument is nonsense.
I know it's not the same as FPL but I work for the UK Government setting up contracts and one of the big things is transparency. By EU Law you have to be completely transparent and give all prospective bidders full information.
Email them again and quote the EU Treaty of Rome.😆 I might not go that far
😆
Where is Daniel when you need him
This is the Clause to quote...
"the greatest possible transparency in so that decisions are taken by public purchasers in a balanced fashion throughout the Community"
Key word there is purchasers.
Indeed. Purchasers of FPL players. I suggest a Class Action be taken to the Haig!
I highly recommend using fantasyfootballfix.com
There price predictions are bang onYeah I keep meaning to look at it. That site wasn't common knowledge a few weeks ago when that fateful Sakho price rise occured.
I had a short conversion with Brutal Deluxe about fantasyfootballfix (FFF) a few weeks ago.
http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2014/10/07/the-suspension-tightrope-gameweek-7/?hc_page=11#hc_comment_8509839
He also claimed that FFF was bang on 100% correct every night, but then admitted that he hadn't checked the predicted fallers but didn't think they had got them right. He also admitted that fplstatistics was now better than he had previously thought, but failed to reply to my question about whether he had only looked at predicted risers with high ownerships.
So when you claim that FFF's price change predictions are bang on, do you mean that it predicts the identity and rise date of every riser correctly (including those with low ownership), that it doesn't predict any risers who fail to rise on the predicted date, and the same for fallers?
That would be a miracle if true, and I find it difficult to believe - but if that isn't what you mean, then how exactly do you define your use of the phrase "bang on"?I've just come across an article about fantasyfootballfix written a few days ago in which they claim to have achieved 80% accuracy for risers and fallers and aiming for 100%.
Do you know if anyone has checked this claim for fallers?
I doubt if they will ever quite achieve 100% though. As the FISO CTC forum point out, FPL tend to move the goalposts whenever they think we're getting too close!Saint Steve-O, the article I was referring to was this one:
http://fantasyfootball247.co.uk/fantasy-football-fix-price-change-information/
Am I right in thinking that fantasy-football-fix (FFF) is only available as a mobile phone app, and that you have to tell it your FPL ID and password?
Is FFF able to give comprehensive price change forecasts for all players in the system, like fplstatistics and FISO do, or does it only offer forecasts for players in your own squad, plus perhaps others that you specifically request?
When you claim that FFF's forecasts are "bang on", do you mean just for this restricted subset of players, or for all players in the system?
And would you consider an FFF forecast to be bang on if the rise occurred a day earlier or later than the FFF forecast?
Have you any evidence to show whether FFF or fplstatistics gives the better forecasts?A comparison of last night's predictions with the actual risers and fallers shows that none of the price prediction sites is "bang on".
fplstatistics and fantasyfootballfix (FFF) both predicted that Jagielka would be the only riser, but he failed to rise - the only actual riser was Sakho.
fplstatistics predicted 6 fallers and FFF predicted 23 - the actual number was 11.
fplstatistics and FFF both predicted that Costa, Skrtl and Distin would all fall - Costa did fall, but the other two did not.
The other 3 predicted to fall by fplstatistics were Baird, Zabaleta and Di Maria - none of them did.
Only 5 of the other 20 predicted to fall by FFF actually did so - Sterling, Ince, Caulker, Kranjcar and Balotelli.
There were also 5 other actual fallers who were not predicted by either site - Doyle, Williams, Armstrong, Bridcutt and Ledley.
So neither site covered themselves in glory with respect to their predictions of fallers, but it is possible that some of the discrepancies might have been borderline cases within reasonable margins of error.
I agree. They should show the data they have. In fact I'd prefer if they just scrapped price changes altogether, but that's another discussion.
All that said I think worrying as much as you seem to do about what could have been will cause you a lot of distress 🙂Its too late for that! I'm sitting in a disastrous position instead of a fairly good one for this stage of the season. To add insult to injury I'm getting thrashed in casual leagues 🙂
It will be a bigger challenge than normally, of course, but I still think saving a very good finish out of a 400k rank at this stage is doable.
You're right of course, but my ranks are getting worse every season...
In fact they are going the other way. This season they have deliberately blocked data that was used by FISO and TFPL making their tools all but useless.
Yep, you are right they have. I'm not impressed with that.
I found last week that the fplstatistics.co.uk website works reasonably well at least.
Their reply is total BS, of course. What they are really concerned about is not having any way to charge web sites like TotalFPL for their secret recipe.
Not that I care about profits at FPL Towers but, from a commercial standpoint, disclosing the info would be beneficial to the number of hits their site gets every day which would mean more advertising money/
It would be interesting. I guess I don't really mind having it hidden, but I wouldn't mind seeing what happened if there was a price rise/fall page on the FPL website. Would players hold their transfers longer because they'd see a player wasn't going up/down with 100% certainty (and therefore lead to less midweek price changes). Or once a player broke a threshold, would there be a flood of transfers in or out? (This already happens I feel, but it might be more pronounced) It'd be an interesting experiment.
Think it would delay quite a few transfers. When I first started playing as a casual I would make transfers early if the player had scored well as I knew they would rise at some point.
if the community all feels strongly about it could we not do something?
Should we organise a march to protest outside FPL Towers?
We could make banners, and have one of those fire pits like the miners had and...and...and...
Yes I do..I've wrote the same many times. The choice is clear..play the money game for a strong second half of the season (!) or play more cautiously...
I have absolutely no idea why FPL can't see the release of the data as anything other than increasing the tactical appeal of the game
I have visions of some old bloke in a brown cardigan deciding this a long time ago and nobody has bothered to think it through properly since then...
I understand peoples frustration, but one player rising .1 can't ruin an entire season for you.
Didn't you read the post? Those 65 points have pretty much put paid to his chances of winning it.
65 points is massive, its a good GW in itself. Better than any GW I've had all season in fact 😳
No it can't but my season was already going badly. There aren't many times when there's the chance to get a 38 point haul from a 13% owned Aguero in the same week as the most popular player in the game is injured, not too mention the missed Sakho and Silva points. By being priced out its affected my decision making and with the extreme scores its had a far bigger impact on my rank than mistakes usually do.
Totally agree.
400k to respectability come gw 38 is more definitely achievable
As much as I'd prefer full disclosure re price rises, fpl have made a choice and it is what it is. For everyone. ACt accordingly.
Will it mean a few more risks with early transfers, absolutely. Had a master plan of Haz to Tadic, then Moreno to Baines 3 weeks ago. Baines went up 0.1 midweek when all sites had him around 40-50%. Cost me around 20+ points. Loads will have these stories.
If you really want a player, get him in. Emailing FPL towers afterwards won't get your 65 points back. Acknowledge, accept, adjust, regroup and get back up them rankings.Yeah this has made me faster to act with transfers, the only worry is I could get screwed by doing a transfer unnecessarily early and then have a player get injured (my reason for delaying with Sakho in the first place)
I emailed before it cost me any points, they just took ages to give their lame response.
Stop being a little girl. Plenty of players play without any information on price changes. You either make the transfer early and risk injury on international duty (and furthermore point hits if so), or you wait for information at the expense of value.
You can't have it all. You could have downgraded elsewhere but you didn't want to. It's your fault, not the price change websites (or lack of).
I think keeping it secret is good for the game. Increases the risk and uncertainty factor making the game more unpredictable and fun. Without price changes to worry about, they remove one layer of the fun. If every serious player will transfer a dropping player out and a rising player just in time how boring will that be? I like that once in a while someone loses 65pts for not taking a risk and that others are rewarded 65 pts for risking. And I like that in some cases people lose points for risking.
Agree with your post 100%.
Monitoring price information is a key strategic tool and I found it hugely beneficial last year in timing my transfers. As this information would be freely available to every single player, then everyone has the potential to benefit. So it would be a level playing field.
Fantasy Football is a hugely competitive, addictive and strategic global game and I believe players that invest more time in the game (detailed analysis, watching games, price monitoring etc) should be better rewarded (potentially) than someone logging on at noon on a Saturday for five mins to make their transfers. It's like the 10,000 hours rule highlighted by Malcolm Gladwell in Outliers; basically, the more time you invest in something, the better you naturally become.
FPL should recognise this and make their pricing system fully transparent like the real-life markets. Those £0.1 changes can often be critical, as the original poster has clearly highlighted. The casual would often be oblivious to this and that ignorance shouldn't be potentially rewarded in a game as strategic as FFL.
Yes, I do take this game rather seriously although I'm still someway short of 10,000 hours 🙂
2FT how does this sound?
Costa > Berahino
Siggy > Sanchez or Eriksen
Leaves me this:
Krul
Clyne, Moreno, Terry
ADM, Fab, Sanchez, Sterling
Sahko, Aguero, Berahino
Wisdom, Marney, Hutton
Why shift Costa?
any ideas how to improve this team?
Forster (McCarthy)
Chambers Baines Clyne (Moore Naylor)
SIGGY ADM Sterling Fabs (Boyd)
Aguero Welbeck Pelle
1FT, 1.0Good team
What time does motd2 start?
10.30
Cheers
Sorry if asked and answered, but am I correct in thinking that Ivanovic should still get credit for a clean sheet? He was sent off before the United equalizer in stoppage time.
No
Short answer, no, you're not correct.
No. Rule is that you still lose your clean sheet point if you've been sent off and any if they'd scored 2 he'd have lost another point.
It frustrated me Also, When i learned of This rule
Correct rule IMO because what if a defender gets sent off and gives away a penalty in the same action. It would be his fault they lost the clean sheet but he wouldn't be around to lose his points. Also you could say under other circumstances they have lost the clean sheet because of having to play with 10 men, again his fault.
Dang. Thanks peeps.
So i want rid of Caulker and he's dropping tonight so I may just sell
The problem is Costa. He continues to drop in price and if he's out for QPR I just can't see any point in holding, but that would leave me with no Chelsea which may force a -8-8 isn't the end of the world
it is when I have no idea who I'd get
Probably something like Costa and Chadli to Welbeck and Hazard/Oscar
for the Arsenal fans 😛
https://vine.co/v/OhLqeZKDQPrsinik you were right about the course of the chelsea manu game....
thank you 🙂
So, anyone getting rid of siggy for Chadli after spurs performance today? Any other midfield ideas for around the 6.4 price?
Mane man
Welbeck 2 goals and 1 assist in 8 games. Bargain.
Don't buy him then.
Hat trick in Europe, scoring for England and Burnley at home next.
Exactly.. People forget that even though they don't count in FPL, they are all good indicators of form and confidence. He will come good for sure
It's simple for me. If you have him you keep for Burnley and see after that. But would you really advise people to transfer him in? Burnley or not i just can't be doing that
I never advise people who to buy or sell. I own him and I'm not selling
Nor should you 😉
That galatasary and San Marino teams would even make the championship
It's a fair point. Gala are horrible
Fails all around
Those
wouldn't
Northern conferenceThe member articles always seem to cause me probs on the iPhone. Comments don't load properly and can't reply to them.
Pick two out of Wisdom (lei) Bertrand (hul) and Wilson (WHU)
thanksThe first Two.
Owning hazard Costa and fab next week madness?
I have haz and Costa just nowIf you haven't got Fabregas now there's no point brining him in.
Why's that
9.7 for mid that is just assisting and averaging 6 ppg isn't worth it IMO.
But he's highest scoring midfielder wether it's assisting or scoring.
And if he keeps on averaging 6ppg then he will finish with 228 points.
That not good enough for a 9.7 midfielder?
Fab will get a yellow at Shrewsbury at won't play QPR, to ensure he plays against 'pool
Or he'll justbe rested for the qpr game 😆
U think? Haz is such a frustrating g player to own at times. Best player on the park today comes away with 2 points
Would be nice but can't see him lining up midweek somehow!
They'll play him to get him the yellow
lol why go to all that trouble? Can't they just bench him against QPR if rest is what they are after?
and avoiding the yellow... obviously!
Huh. Is not a case of rest. They want him to be banned for an easy fixture
Why force him into playing a mickey mouse game though to do that? Why not just leave him out the squad vs QPR?
Because then they have no control over what game he's banned for...
lol... ok
We'll see i suppose. Hope he plays and gets injured if they are gonna be cheating like that!
I mean i get the fact that he will then be suspended at some point for a game that will probably be harder than QPR at home but will they really go to all that trouble? I can't see it
It will happen
I will wait for this. Could be a shout
Wouldn't double up on the mf
*gloat warning*
Don't mean to brag but i've had Sanchez from GW1, kept the faith when he was benched and others were telling me to get rid but I'm glad i stuck to my guns...just an example of staying clam and not knee jerking paying off 🙂Well done! Not easy to stay patient.
Cheers, I vice captained him this week, next week he gets the armband..!!!
I'm not entirely convinced yet personally, but that may well be an error on my side
Wtf is going on in south Africa ..
south African goalkeeper shot dead !
Mannone got off lightly last gw so
FFF has Caulker dropping tonight
Time to get rid
can you link me the site pls?
Tomkins, Sterling & Siggy - OUT
Wisdom, Sanchez, Downing - IN
yes or no?for a -8pt hit??
-4
Yes, go for it.
That seems pretty certain!
I'll repost but change the q slightly as we have a new room.
Ok then if you were wild carding now. Who would the first 5 names on your team sheet be?
Consider your available cash and the need to fill a further 10 places.Baines, Clyne, Bertrand, Aguero, Costa.
Double up on Southampton at the back? Do you see this form continuing?
Aguero Baines Pelle Alexis Fabreagas
See I'm strongly considering Alexis but worried I'm points chasing lol..... Plus the amount of folk in here saying he's had 2 lucky games is high lol
Kun, Costa, Pelle, Di Maria, Sanchez
I'd worry about affording that lot.... Formidable though
I would hold fire on my wildcard for 3 more gws and go for:
ADM Sanchez Aguero Costa FabregasFantastic but leaves you very little to create the remainder of your team
Baines
Sanchez
Costa
Aguero
Pele
All fairly expensive but base your team around these and you cant go wrongAgreed
Baines, aguero, Pelle, Sanchez, hazard
Haz over Fab?
For what it's worth I'm
Baines, Clyne/Bertrand, fab, Costa, KunHmmm tough question
Costa (if fit)
Aguero
Sakho (if fit) - frees up a bit of money
Fabregas - scoring so consistently
Baines - the fixtures are here.Yep I'm with you there. The 'if fit' bit is the tricky one.
Who is the keeper that get to replace Bego in my team ? post GW 12 ,Guzan , Fabianski or Hart?
Guzan for me. Nice price, decent defence and good fixtures
If you don't have Swansea defence I'd get Flappy
Have you seen there next few fixtures...
He said from GW12
Ar my bad 😕
yes GW 12 All three have decent fixtures, just asking which one you trust the most and if hart is worth it.
Richard 'Hairy Hands'
I saw him on a flight once when I was bumped up to 1st class.
I was sitting 4 or 5 rows behind him.
He called for assistance from the buzzer thing above your head and you've never seen such a gorilla like paw in all your life!
True Story.
Who would you bring in for Siggy?
Got 6.9m available total.
Thinking Barkley or Mane?So many options, these plus downing, chadli and perhaps schurrle
Mane
I wouldn't. I'm sure he'll be fine.
Mane
Those are the names top of the list
I love the idea that a player will be rested to avoid a 5th yellow. Misses a game to avoid missing a game but still on 4 yellows 🙂
lol leave me alone
😛 Great result and comeback yesterday
Brilliant. I'll be honest, i couldn't see it at HT but fair play to Gary and the lads. They have a top notch spirit in that squad
Was a great game yesterday for you lot 🙂
It's Liverpool FFS, it's not even like it's a difficult game he'll miss
Lol behave
hear hear
Looking at mids to potentially replace siggy. I'm looking at schurrle for a one week punt thinking this could be the match for him!
Just no!
That's what u think but he will bag an unbelievable haul at some point. Qpr home looks worth a risk. Wouldn't be no long term thing. V much doubt I'd do it, just putting the idea out there....
Yep, but I wouldn't waste a transfer on a one week punt on a player who isn't even in the first XI.
Just made my transfers for this week for a -4 hit, just checking in to see other peoples views. Won't change anything, but I'm still curious:
Out: Siggy (5th mid) / Sterling / Wilson
In: Boyd / Sanchez / Bertrand
Team:
Foster / (Krul)
Baines / Bertrand / Chambers / (Moore) / (Duff)
Sanchez / Fabs / Hazard / Tadic / (Boyd)
Welbs / Pelle / CostaMane already has a better PPG than Tadic
nit big enough sample imo
On the plus side for tadic, saints bound to get a pen soon.
Sterling -> Walcott
Yes or No?A week to early IMO
This, as much as I would love to
Bego Forster
Dier Clyne Jagz Naylor Moreno
Fab ADM Chadli Siggy Hendo
Pelle© Berahino Kun
1.2 ITB 1FT
Advise me lads? RMT
Don't mean to be tedious it's probably been asked alot but is Siggy likely to drop tonight ? And who is more likely to rise if any Sanchez or Hazard ?
How very dare you!
... I've no idea 😀Hope not and Sanchez seen as he scored a brace.
Eff MNF, Mike Tyson Mysteries starts tomorrow.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dC7nOQx9DQ0Doing Pelle --> Sakho to free up Midfield funds !! 🙂
Guzan (Krul)
Baines Clyne Wisdom (PVA , Dummet)
Di Maria , Schneiderlin , Siggy , Sterling (Cattermole)
Aguero , Pelle , Costa
Madness fellas ?
Who for in midfield would be the question? Pelle still has some good fixtures coming up and debatable if Morgan is enough SHampton cover? Better saving FT?
9 years, 6 months agoThe FA should take a decision on Aguero before Man City league cup game, right?