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The Numbers Game – Forward Thinking Full-Backs

As Branislav Ivanovic blazes a trail near the top of the defender rankings, it seems timely to put the position under further analysis by assessing the attacking potential of the Serb’s rivals. In this latest article for our members, we analyse the early-season data in an attempt to examine the cast of defenders offering the potential of returns at both ends of the pitch.

With Leighton Baines an ever present in such analysis, and new top flight arrivals Aaron Cresswell and Kieran Trippier receiving plenty of hype in pre-season, the attacking full-back shows great promise as a potential differential target.

This is compounded by this season’s changes to the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) bonus point system (BPS) calculation that has reduced the penalty handed out to players who raid forward to take on opponents. While it’s too early to confirm the impact of this change, it’s worth noting that four of the top five BPS scorers in defence are full-backs – right now, the dominant centre-back is not having it all his own way.

The starting point for our analysis was a custom stats table which captured a series of key indicators identified as important factors when assessing the attacking potential of a defender. We’ve chosen to sort our table by “Touches in the Final Third” in order to capture those defenders who have joined the attack most often. We’ve also included data that captures their effectiveness in terms of crossing and chances created, whilst also assessing Clearances, Blocks and Interceptions (CBI) as a means of further examining the bonus point potential of the listed candidates.

Our custom table has been made public and can be accessed here. The table will go on collecting data each week, offering a constant updated snapshot of our analysis. For now, however, let’s examine the data after the opening two Gameweeks.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

1,253 Comments Post a Comment
  1. SoapFC
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Hu guys please need opinions on my team! 😛 (4.2m in the bank) Wildcard active
    STARTING 11
    GK: Krul
    DEF: Azpi, Clyne, Dummet
    MID: Siggurdsson, Ramsey (C), Hazard, Sterling
    FOR, Jovetic, Sturridge, Naismith
    BENCH: Guzan, Vlaar, Wisdom, Cattermole

    I will swap jovetic out for aguero next gw, as I think jovetic has goals in him this week but afterwards aguero will be taking the spotlight, had ivanovic instead of azpi but needed the moeny for next week to get aguero, pls let me know what you think 🙂 I'm trying to sus out a long(ish) term team, cheers all

    1. Joga Bonito®
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Why would you do a wildcard and keep that much in the bank?

      Weak defence imo

      1. Neville's Advocate
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        Have you read the post?

      2. the axolotl
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        if you'd actually read his post, he's keeping for aguero next week.

        think it's a nice team. i'd lose vlaar though given his schedule.

        1. SoapFC
          • 9 Years
          9 years, 9 months ago

          Change of plan guys! swapping azpi for ivanovic, then going to get costa when he's back match fit! I think ivan + Costa will get me more points then azpi and aguero in the long run with ivan's proven potential to get goals 🙂

  2. goriuanx
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    What transfer(s) has everyone done this week?

    Used my 2 frees Mutch, Long to Siggy, Naismith.

      • 10 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      bojan ➡ naismith, saving a FT depending on costa

      1. Mr. Mystic
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        Yes, I've done the same: Bojan - Naismith

        Then probably Costa -> Strurridge/Aguero next gameweek.

    1. Wilshere Knowledge
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      I will, unless new injuries strike, do Fabregas to Sanchez.

      1. Screaming Midget
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        I'd keep Fabregas.

        1. Wilshere Knowledge
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 9 months ago

          I know people are advising against moving him on, but I only ever wanted him against the promoted sides in cm.

        • 10 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        😯 did you watch 'em last night?

        1. Wilshere Knowledge
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 9 months ago

          Of course. His positioning was better in the 2nd half. An OOP Arsenal striker, yes please! 😉

            • 10 Years
            9 years, 9 months ago

            His work rate etc was a lot better, but still not up to speed. Struggled to link up with Ozil etc, and looked shattered at the end.

            He'll come (very) good, but not yet for me.

            1. Wilshere Knowledge
              • 10 Years
              9 years, 9 months ago

              I agree with everything you said. But with the fixtures, and the confidence of his £30m goal, I think it's a decent time. I want to get rid of Fabregas anyway, and the banked 2m is burning a hole in my pocket. 😉

                • 10 Years
                9 years, 9 months ago

                Well best of luck! 😀

    2. The Wayfarer
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Coloccini and Courtois in. Begovic and Cahill out.
      A little sideways but saves one millon. And that will come in handy.

    3. Bubz
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Chambers to Colo

    4. Miracallas
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Giroud to Jovetic, not exactly left field I know

  3. goriuanx
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    https://twitter.com/LFC/status/505082427195527169

    QPR sign Jack Robinson from LFC

    1. Mr_Partridge
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Same mistakes as last year. Harry will be gone soon

      1. Screaming Midget
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        And rightly so. He's a poor manager - even with a bottomless pit of cash.

    2. QPR expects... glory!
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      He's going straight out on loan to Huddersfield.

  4. Scoutcast
  5. Kerz
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Starting XI for GW 3:

    Krul
    Terry Clyne Caulker
    Eriksen Mata Siggy Rambo (c)
    Rooney Costa Jovetic

    Foster Hutton Marney Chester

    1ft, 0.6 ITB

    A) Eriksen > Sterling (Eriksen's falling tonight, just enough cash ITB to do it)

    B) Roll-over FT and have 2 for the international break

    1. liquidfootball2
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      B

  6. red_devil
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    what do you guys think

    A. hazard/lamela.

    B. fabregas/sterling

    1. Joga Bonito®
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      B

    2. Screaming Midget
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      I think I prefer B

    3. The Rock
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      B

  7. The Rock
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Advise for this team?

    Krul
    Terry, Lovren, Caulker, Cylne, Taylor
    Fab, Ramsey, Mata, Siggy
    Rooney, Costa
    Mannone, Young, Lovren, Bent

    2 free transfer, Bent and Young to go at some point, nothing in the bank, maybe Bent to Naismith? Neither in my starting 11 anyway so probably will only lose one of them this week.

  8. The Generalator
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Who is more Likely to keep clean sheet?

    Burnley (Utd home)
    Leicester (arsenal home)

    Thanks x

    1. The Rock
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Arsenal, coming from a Utd fan!

      1. Poseidon. Not arrogant, jus…
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        Bitter abu

    2. Screaming Midget
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Burnley

      1. The Generalator
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        Not much in it I guess
        I'll have a look at the odds

  9. Baby Cuties
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Id appreciate your views on this matter:

    A. Costa -> Aguero (FT)
    B. Costa -> Jovetic and Arnautovic -> Lamela (-4)

    thanks

    1. The Rock
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      A

    2. Screaming Midget
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Wasn't Aguero rolling around on the ground in training?

      1. Baby Cuties
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        he finished training apparently. it's being swept aside as speculation by the community

  10. rozzo
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Just come on so this might have already been said but why is the champs league draw virtually the same as last year?

    Chelsea - Schalke
    City - Bayern
    Arsenal - Dortmund

    What are the odds on that? Have I read it wrong? Am i going mad?

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      I guess it's do do with teams being in the same pots and the not being able to be in the same group as your own country thing?

  11. HuttonDressedasLahm
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    So this week I...........
    Sell Jovetic and Dzeko and Aguero get injured
    Sell Sanchez and Giroud gets injured
    Buy Naismith and they buy Eto'o

    FFS!

    1. The Rock
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      What are your plans for next week? 🙂

      1. HuttonDressedasLahm
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        Crying after I waste my WC 😉

    2. The Generalator
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      I know, lots of probs this week 🙁

    3. 1314
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Aguero injured for sure ?

  12. Djerbil
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    If Kagawa leaves for Dortmund , I am gonna miss @evilkagawa

    I say to Gaal "no Shinji, no win-ji" Kagawa unconscious. 3 minute!"

    1. HUMZAH96
        9 years, 9 months ago

        That is the worst account on Twitter.

        1. Djerbil
          • 12 Years
          9 years, 9 months ago

          u need a different life

    2. AriseSirGiggsy
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Blackett and Eriksen are at -101.1% on TotalFPL
      The site doesn't seem to have been accurate so far this season

      Should I still expect them both to drop in price tonight?

    3. aehii
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Spurs are finally fun to watch.

    4. ronmadpirlo
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Red Sagbo! I have a bet on hull to win the match....hold!!!!

    5. ACCOUNTING ON CHRIS
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Remember:

      It's international week:

      Aguero will do 30 mins and be proclaimed as not fully fit
      Costa will do 60 and proclaimed as having hamstring issues
      Dzeko may be reduced for the same reason

      Expect other blabber from managers soon.

    6. 1314
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Sanchez gonna play as striker for Arsenal ?
      Should I do Mata-Debuchy > Sanchez-Dummet?

    7. Chu Young Ping Pong
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Anyone considering the ginger Pirlo?

      1. Bauerhaus 24
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        nah never been a fan of rupert grint since the harry potter films

    8. red_devil
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      what do you guys think about this wildcard team

      krul(elliot)

      clyne/ pva/ taylor (wisdom/ dummet)

      sterling/ fab/ ramsey/ siggurson (king)

      rooney/ aguero/ ade

      any changes recommended?

    9. Screaming Midget
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      If Diego Costa doesn't start for Chelsea, I have a massive player to come on. A massive sub.

      Alex Bruce (who probably won't play again).

    10. Sponge-worthy
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      HJK Going through To Europa League!!! Rapid Wien Going Down..

    11. Roberto Baggio
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      A. silva &Sturridge
      B. Aguero & Sterling

      1. Baruahahaha
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        A.

      2. Salah’s Sonnet
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        B

    12. Baruahahaha
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Should I wildcard
      DDG 4.0
      Terry Kosch Wisdom Duff Chester
      Eriksen Sterling Silva Ramsey Marney
      Rooney Costa Bojan

      1. liquidfootball2
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        no, nothing terminal would be a waste

    13. Chu Young Ping Pong
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Wow Di maria rising already?

      1. RabMac
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        How you monitoring rise and falls mate?

        1. Chu Young Ping Pong
          • 11 Years
          9 years, 9 months ago

          totalfpl

          1. RabMac
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 9 months ago

            Still seems a little dodgy to me.

      2. Frank Black
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        No, he's protected.

    14. RabMac
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      I have made a spreadsheet that analyses players and helps you identify which are the best players to pick regarding form and value for money. It also shows you all scorers and assisters and what team they done it against. In addition it has all the results to date and all goals conceded.

      It is totally upto date and I will try my best to keep it that way throughout the season.

      Please feel free to use my spreadsheet and provide feedback or suggestions on how it could be improved or any errors you may find. I am also happy to answer any questions if you are unsure of something.

      You can access it here: https://www.zoho.com/docs/login.html

      username: rabmcnair89@gmail.com
      password: fantasyfootballscout

      ======================================
      The tabs that will be of interest are:

      GK Calculations, Defender Calculations, Midfielder Calculations, Forward Calculations, Goals Assists, Conceded, My Team [monitors your team each week] & Results

      ======================================

      In the GK calculations, Defender Calculations, Midfielder Calculations & Forward calculations you will see a table with all the players.

      The columns in the table are:

      1. PPG = Points Per Game - Shows the average points a player gets each game.
      2. PPM = Points Per Million - Shows how many points a player gets for each million pound you spend - allows you to see who is good value for money and compare to other players
      3. PPMPG = Points Per Million Per Game - Shows how many points a player scores each game for each million pound you spend. - I feel this is a better indicator of who is best value for money.
      4. Points 4 Weeks = Points scored over last 4 game weeks - this helps you identify the most inform players over the last 4 weeks
      5. Performance Indicator = Shows if a player is below the average key performance indicator (low), above average but below high key performance indicator (average) and above high key performance indicator (high)

      ==================================================================
      You use these tables to help identify a pool of good players to pick from and then you check the fixtures to see who to pick. You can also use these tables to see if your current players are performing well and if not you should ship them out. Ideally you want to have a full team of people who have high performance and good fixtures.

      1. The Orienteer - find me in …
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        ,and what team they done it against,.

        1. RabMac
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 9 months ago

          THat info is on the spreadsheet as comments and can be found on Goals & Assists tab.

      2. Dino
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        This looks excellent rab. I've not looked at the spreadsheets (yet) But I'll have a look and come back to you with feedback when I get a chance.

        You might want to submit the above in an article form to ffs so it will get some proper publicity.

        One thing I spotted was about value. Points per million spent can be misleading as you have to spend a minimum in each position so a 4m Def is really not costing you anything and your actual budget in the game is really 36.5m or something not 100. I'm not sure how you would get a truer value metric but it might be worth looking into.

        The problem with the way you are currently doing it is the more expensive players look better value compared to the cheaper players e.g. Rvp =12.5m but he's really costs 12.5-4.5 (min cost of a fwd)= 8 while giroud only costs 8.5 -4.5 = 4m. Really rvp would have to score double giroud score to provide the same value.

        1. RabMac
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 9 months ago

          Thanks mate and as you and Rodallega advised, I have submitted it as an article.

          I see what you mean regarding value and admit that the system is not perfect but I do believe it is still a good way of identifying players.

          Last year was my first year of playing and I did not join until week 3. I used these metrics to help me pick my team and guide my transfers throughout the season and managed to finish 1st overall out of all the GW3 starters and 16K out of everyone, so I believe it may be a good system.

          However, I will need to replicate that form this year to show that it was not a fluke. Also if more people are using it and they get success it would suggest this could be good way to pick players.

    15. derOttmar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      got Erikssen + Costa

      could swap to Sanchez + Jovetic but can't cater for any price changes

      or do Aguero + Chadli with .5 left to wait to the weekend

      feel like stick to keep avoid the hit and keep transfers for international break, as then everything will change with CL starting soon..

    16. Markus123
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      is di maria not protected or is totalfpl just messing up? anyone know?

    17. Wave of Mutilation
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      If I hold steady with this line up...

      Krul Foster
      Cahill Fonte O’Shea Ward(R?) Bruce(R)
      Hazard Sterling Mata Siggy Mutch(R?)
      Costa Rooney Naismith(R?)

      ...pick one of the following 3 to start:

      A. Ward (4-4-2)
      B. Mutch (3-5-2)
      C. Naismith (3-4-3)

      Seems like Ward is out of the question. Leaning toward Naismith due to form, But QPR has a Mutch better fixture.

    18. Lazarus Star
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      So regretting that knee jerk WC button press this morning.

    19. ClaireT
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      What would you suggest doing with my 2 free transfers this week:

      De Gea, Gilks
      Debuchy, Cahill, van Aanholt, Wisdom, Davies
      Ramsey, Lamela, Sigurdsson, Mata, El Ahmadi
      Pelle, Diego Costa, Rooney

      0.0 in bank

      Thanks in advance