The Form Gauge -Gameweek – 7

The Form Gauge is a regular article in which I’ll be taking a look back at the last four Gameweeks’ worth of statistics and analyse which teams have been on or off form. Along with this, I’ll be having a look into the fixtures for the week ahead and judging them based on their current form. All stats in the fixture analysis are based on the last four Gameweeks, unless otherwise stated.

THE FORM GAUGE

Goals Scored. 

High – Chelsea (14), Southampton (10), Man United (9), Everton (8), Crystal Palace (8).

Low – Burnley (0), Sunderland (2), Aston Villa (3), Tottenham (3).

Goals Conceded. 

High – Everton (10), Hull (10), Newcastle (10), West Ham (8), QPR (8).

Low – Southampton (2), Sunderland (3), Stoke (3), Burnley (4), Arsenal (4).

Clean Sheets. 

High – Burnley (3), Southampton (2), Man United (2), Crystal Palace (2), West Brom (2), Swansea (2), Stoke (2), Sunderland (2).

Low – Tottenham (0), Newcastle (0), Hull (0), Man City (0), West Ham (0).

Failed to Score. 

High – Burnley (4), Sunderland (3), West Brom (2), Swansea (2), Newcastle (2), Aston Villa (2), Tottenham (2).

Low – Hull (0), Everton (0), Chelsea (0), Arsenal (0), Southampton (0), West Ham (0).

ANALYSING THE GAMEWEEK 7 FIXTURES

(All W/D/L are based on the last four games played in all competitions.)

Hull (DDLL) v Crystal Palace (DWLW)

These two teams have both been in decent attacking form, with Crystal Palace scoring the fourth highest amount of goals over the past four Gameweeks and Hull just one shy of Palace’s tally. Hull’s seven goals were spread out over the four matches, whilst Palace scored a goal in every game bar one where they drew 0-0 with Burnley. Hull have seen a lot of goal attempts conceded in their box, just three less than the most, which has resulted in them conceding ten goals – the highest amount over the past four weeks. I think Hull will win this, although Palace are showing signs that they could grab a point at the KC Stadium, with both teams looking likely to score.

Leicester (DWWL) v Burnley (DDDL)

This is the first time this season that two newly promoted sides play each other. Sean Dyche’s side saw themselves concede a goal for this first time in three weeks, as West Brom netted four past them at the weekend. Burnley will have to rely on their defensive resilience against Leicester, as they’re still struggling to beat the keeper – scoring only one goal all season. Something to please the Burnley fans is Leicester have only managed to have ten shots on target in four weeks. Looking at the stats you’d be silly not to play a Leicester defender this week, but how long will it actually be before Burnley find the net again? It’ll be interesting to see how this match pans out, but for me I’d say Leicester will win to nil.

Liverpool (LD*DL) v West Brom (LWWW)

*Match went to penalties – Liverpool won. 

West Brom have just picked up back-to-back clean sheets against Tottenham and Burnley and secured three points in each of the games. Last season, West Brom didn’t keep two clean sheets in a row at all and only won two matches on the trot once. Liverpool’s past four gameweek stats are average, thus, failing to make an appearance on The Form Gauge this week. Daniel Sturridge has missed the past three games league games for Liverpool through injury, and his team mates have failed to adapt, with them only scoring two goals in those matches. Liverpool have twice been beaten unexpectedly over the past few weeks and West Brom will be looking to continue this.

Sunderland (DDLD) v Stoke (LDWW)

Both of these clubs have fairly similar stats over the past four league matches, two clean sheets each, three goals conceded each and have scored six goals between them, with Stoke having the better form with four goals. In fact, these two teams share a lot more statistical similarities when looking at other attacking and defensive data. I’d be confident to play a Sunderland defender this week, although Stoke may keep a clean sheet too.

Swansea (LLWD) v Newcastle (LDWL)

Newcastle are still looking for their first win of the season, something I don’t think they’ll find here. Newcastle’s defence has been poor recently, conceding ten goals and failing to keep a clean sheet. They’ve also conceded nine big chances and made three goal scoring errors. For this reason, I think Swansea will find their winning form again, after it has digressed a bit recently. Swansea will have to work on their football in the oppositions half though, as their stats are very poor. They’ve made the least successful passes in the final third, taken the fewest touches in the final third and have had just three more penalty area touches than the team who’s made the fewest.

Aston Villa (WWLL) v Man City (DWWD)

I can’t see this game producing anything other than a Manchester City victory.  Aston Villa started the season off well, taking ten points from their first four games and keeping three clean sheets, but since then they’ve had back-to-back 3-0 defeats against Arsenal and Chelsea. The Birmingham based club created only 20 chances against Hull, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea – the worst in the league – which lead them to have a very low eight shots on target – also the worst in the league. I don’t think this game will be another 3-0 Villa loss, I think it’ll probably be more, with Aston Villa being incapable of giving the big sides a decent go.

Man United (DWLW) v Everton (LLDD)

Everton are at both ends of the spectrum in The Form Gauge, scoring in every game, totaling ten goals, but also conceding ten goals. Everton’s defence has made some costly errors, which has resulted in four goals being conceded, and has also been leaking a lot of shots in the box. United’s defence has also been  porous; its shaky back line has made five errors over the last four weeks that have resulted in a  chance being created. But Manchester United have  been in form in front of goal, scoring nine goals against QPR, Leicester and West Ham. This match kick starts our ‘Super Sunday’, and my prediction is a Red Devils win, by a goal or two.

Chelsea (DWWW) v Arsenal (WLDW)

It’s the second week running where Arsenal are in a London derby, and I think this game will be more entertaining than the last. Neither club has failed to score in their past four league games and I don’t see this match being any different. These two clubs defences haven’t been as solid as they were in the previous season, but  Chelsea boss Jose Mourinho does like to park the bus against the big teams, a tactic that saw Chelsea keep four clean sheets out of a possible six against the other top four clubs last season. Even with this in mind, I still think with Arsenal’s form, they’ll find the net at least once. Chelsea have scored the most goals over the last four weeks, with Diego Costa being responsible for six of these. The Blues are also dominant in most of the attacking stats that I’ve looked at, being in the top couple throughout. This match should be full of goals with Chelsea prevailing.

Tottenham (LWDD) v Southampton (WWWW)

Spurs have picked up just two points from the previous twelve available and in my opinion I think Southampton have what it takes to win this. Ronald Koeman’s players have been the talk of the town on the site recently, with many managers drafting them in for their favourable upcoming fixtures. The Saints are in immense form, winning each of their last four games and only conceding twice. Tottenham have only had twelve shots on target and this is reflected in how many goals they have scored, just three. A Southampton victory to nil is a very real possibility

West Ham (LDWL) v QPR (WLDL)

West Ham are the only club to yet keep a clean sheet, and I’ll be paying particularly close attention to this game, as West Ham now have a decent run of fixtures where I’d expect them to keep a few. Stewart Downing and Diafra Sakho are the two in-form players for the Hammers, with the former assisting three goals and the latter scoring three. Meanwhile, QPR have the worst shot accuracy over the past four fixtures, with only twelve shots reaching the target. The two clubs have conceded eight goals each but West Ham have only conceded one big chance where as QPR have racked up ten – the worst. I predict a 2-0 victory for the Hammers.