The objective of this exercise is to look at recent form to help predict the attacking potential of each team over the next six Gameweeks.
These calculations are based on the average goals scored (GS) home and away in the past six matches, as well as the average goals conceded. I’ll then use this to predict teams’ attacking performance over the next six Gameweeks and highlight key players to consider. Please note all decimal points in the tables are written in the European style as a comma.
Teams’ Attacking Potential – Next Six Gameweeks
The following uses form over the last six Gameweeks to predict expected points and goals over the next six Gameweeks.
Here’s a detailed example to show how it works: Arsenal are playing Liverpool away this weekend. Arsenal have conceded five goals in their last six away (an average of 1.7 goals conceded per game). Liverpool, on the other hand, have scored only twice in front of their own fans in the past six (0.7 goals scored per game), which is only 49% of the average number of goals scored at home in the Premier League in the past six Gameweeks. We can therefore expect Liverpool to score 0.8 goals versus Arsenal: 49% of the 1.7 goals conceded on average by Arsenal.
As a bonus, you can find on the right of the table deducted total goals conceded per team in the next six.
This analysis suggests Man United’s recent attacking form home and away (13 goals scored in the past six) will continue with a set of relatively easy fixtures against teams that tend to concede goals (avl, NEW, tot, sto, SOT, qpr).
Despite having a great run of fixtures, Man City face opponents that are not that easy to break down: Crystal Palace and Sunderland at home and Everton away. This looks like it won’t be the festive goal fest we were all waiting for.
QPR are the surprise package here with close to 10 goals expected to be scored in the next six. This is mainly due to their very good home potential (four at home in their next six), in particular a home clash with Swansea.
Players’ Attacking Potential – Next Six Gameweeks
Here are the top 30 players in terms of predicted attacking potential over the next six Gameweeks (please click on the image in the link and use your server’s enlarge function to get a clearer image and see more details).
Based on price and form this table gives a potential ideal front seven of:
Van Persie – Austin – Rooney
Mata – Walters – Hazard – Eriksen (+ Sanchez if you want a rotating front eight)
On the basis of opposition and attacking form, Man United look like an in-form prospect in term of attacking delivery, with the most goals scored expected in the next six. Their attacking assets are on the up with Robin van Persie, Juan Mata and Wayne Rooney being in the ideal front seven. We don’t know what effect Angel Di Maria’s return from injury will have so it could be a bit early to jump onto the Mata bandwagon.
Hazard’s home form keeps him in the top five (you can take Aguero out of the list at the moment of course). To allow you to get to this marvellous front seven, you can find two in-form budget options in the name of Charlie Austin and Jonathan Walters. The latter’s recent form makes him an under-the-radar option and this analysis suggests he has the fixtures and the form to be set for further returns in the next six.
Notes – Attacking Potential Explained: The expected attacking points calculation for each player is based on their involvement in goals scored over the past six Gameweeks, applied to the expected goals scored by the team over that period. Each player’s number of goals and assists are taken into account over their last six. This, combined with the total number of goals scored by their team over the same period of time, gives an involvement per type of attacking threat in term of percentage (goals and assists).
These percentages are then applied to their team’s expected number of goals over the next six Gameweeks. That gives an expected number of goals and assists, which apply to a number of points depending on their playing position (goals = four, five or six). This gives an attacking points potential for every player in the game.
9 years, 3 months ago
This is good news for RVP and Rooney owners. Should be a nice Christmas and New Year for them. Thanks for posting - great article.