Community Submissions

Attacking Potential – The Festive Run-in And Beyond

The objective of this exercise is to look at recent form to help predict the attacking potential of each team over the next six Gameweeks.

These calculations are based on the average goals scored (GS) home and away in the past six matches, as well as the average goals conceded. I’ll then use this to predict teams’ attacking performance over the next six Gameweeks and highlight key players to consider. Please note all decimal points in the tables are written in the European style as a comma.

Teams’ Attacking Potential – Next Six Gameweeks

The following uses form over the last six Gameweeks to predict expected points and goals over the next six Gameweeks.

Here’s a detailed example to show how it works: Arsenal are playing Liverpool away this weekend. Arsenal have conceded five goals in their last six away (an average of 1.7 goals conceded per game). Liverpool, on the other hand, have scored only twice in front of their own fans in the past six (0.7 goals scored per game), which is only 49% of the average number of goals scored at home in the Premier League in the past six Gameweeks. We can therefore expect Liverpool to score 0.8 goals versus Arsenal: 49% of the 1.7 goals conceded on average by Arsenal.

As a bonus, you can find on the right of the table deducted total goals conceded per team in the next six.

gillespic

This analysis suggests Man United’s recent attacking form home and away (13 goals scored in the past six) will continue with a set of relatively easy fixtures against teams that tend to concede goals (avl, NEW, tot, sto, SOT, qpr).

Despite having a great run of fixtures, Man City face opponents that are not that easy to break down: Crystal Palace and Sunderland at home and Everton away. This looks like it won’t be the festive goal fest we were all waiting for.

QPR are the surprise package here with close to 10 goals expected to be scored in the next six. This is mainly due to their very good home potential (four at home in their next six), in particular a home clash with Swansea.

Players’ Attacking Potential – Next Six Gameweeks

Here are the top 30 players in terms of predicted attacking potential over the next six Gameweeks (please click on the image in the link and use your server’s enlarge function to get a clearer image and see more details).

Based on price and form this table gives a potential ideal front seven of:

Van Persie – Austin – Rooney

Mata – Walters – Hazard – Eriksen (+ Sanchez if you want a rotating front eight)

On the basis of opposition and attacking form, Man United look like an in-form prospect in term of attacking delivery, with the most goals scored expected in the next six. Their attacking assets are on the up with Robin van Persie, Juan Mata and Wayne Rooney being in the ideal front seven. We don’t know what effect Angel Di Maria’s return from injury will have so it could be a bit early to jump onto the Mata bandwagon.

Hazard’s home form keeps him in the top five (you can take Aguero out of the list at the moment of course). To allow you to get to this marvellous front seven, you can find two in-form budget options in the name of Charlie Austin and Jonathan Walters. The latter’s recent form makes him an under-the-radar option and this analysis suggests he has the fixtures and the form to be set for further returns in the next six.

Notes – Attacking Potential Explained: The expected attacking points calculation for each player is based on their involvement in goals scored over the past six Gameweeks, applied to the expected goals scored by the team over that period. Each player’s number of goals and assists are taken into account over their last six. This, combined with the total number of goals scored by their team over the same period of time, gives an involvement per type of attacking threat in term of percentage (goals and assists).

These percentages are then applied to their team’s expected number of goals over the next six Gameweeks. That gives an expected number of goals and assists, which apply to a number of points depending on their playing position (goals = four, five or six). This gives an attacking points potential for every player in the game.

Gilles I am not spécial I love Ireland !!

54 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    This is good news for RVP and Rooney owners. Should be a nice Christmas and New Year for them. Thanks for posting - great article.

  2. Debauchy
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Hmmmmmmmm - Will revert after another 6 gws

    1. Gilles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      No prob.:-)
      You can find the comparison expected vs actual attacking points in the past 6: for example, Austin was expected to score 18.6 points and scored 18 points in the past 6. RVP was completely wrong obviously... But at least you can find out there if you feel the predictions are not that bad...:-)

  3. S.Kuqi
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Great article. Thanks. Might get double United and get DiMaria along with Rooney.

    1. Gilles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      RVP in last week. Thinking about Mata and Ericksen. But Di Maria is in themix, so I will wait next week to see what happens 🙂

  4. sinik
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    this article gives #teamrvp raging throbbing..

    😯

    expectations right now

  5. Punty
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Liverpool will score more goals than United from now till January 2nd

    1. Gilles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      Maybe...
      Not sure knowing both teams form though 🙂

      1. Punty
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 3 months ago

        Disclaimer: My prediction is based on Rodgers playing with the kind of line-ups we've had in the two last games :p Can't really compared a Liverpool playing 4-5------1 with only Sterling as the creative player to a 3-6-0 including Sterling, Markovic, Coutinho, Lallana!

  6. Lloyd Xmas
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Siggy seems to divide opinion.
    Is he a season keeper or a get rid and replace?

    1. Gilles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      I'm thinking about Siggy and Yaya out to ManU mid and Ericksen next week.

  7. Ice
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Erm the player expectations have RVP and Rooney only getting 4 points over the next six games….think you need to do some editing...

    1. sinik
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      lol?

      1. Ice
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 3 months ago

        Yeh I know, apparently RVP and Rooney have no involvement in United goals...

        1. Ice
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 3 months ago

          sorry make that no involvement in assists...

        2. sinik
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 3 months ago

          with our next 6, RVP could easily amount to 10 goals and assists if United's attack starts to gel more and we get ADM and Falcao back..

          1. Gilles
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 3 months ago

            You need obviously to look at thé second spreadsheet which gives gws 17 to 22 potential.
            First spreadsheet shows gws 12 to 17 potential. 🙂

            1. sinik
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              9 years, 3 months ago

              was this a reply fail for me since it's posted twice? 😉

              1. Gilles
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                9 years, 3 months ago

                Indeed !:-)

    2. Gilles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      You need obviously to look at thé second spreadsheet which gives gws 17 to 22 potential.
      First spreadsheet shows gws 12 to 17 potential. 🙂

  8. SC not pearls before swine
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Interesting. The narrative has been that Manchester United have been "lucky" to score as many goals as they have over the last few weeks based on the number of shots they've been taking. Given the price of most of their assets (And the questions over Rooney's role/Mata's playing time when Di Maria returns) only Di Maria tempts me, although Rooney does seem bring in a stream of points regardless of where he plays.

    1. Gilles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      True. But i'm only looking at goals scored. Too many lucky goals means something. See Yaya last year:-)

      1. SC not pearls before swine
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 3 months ago

        Yeah, it will be interesting to see how it plays out. In 6 weeks you should do a retrospective and see how using goals scored worked out!

        1. Gilles
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 3 months ago

          I actually do this.
          But don't post it...
          For the past 6 weeks, here are goals scored per team vs expectations :

          ARS 9,3 7,1 10,0 2,9
          AVL 5,7 1,2 5,0 3,8
          BUR 5,8 4,8 6,0 1,2
          CHE 11,0 9,1 10,0 0,9
          CPL 3,8 6,1 5,0 -1,1
          EVE 6,7 7,4 8,0 0,6
          HUL 3,1 3,8 2,0 -1,8
          LEI 3,0 4,7 4,0 -0,7
          LIV 7,5 10,4 6,0 -4,4
          MCI 10,3 11,6 13,0 1,4
          MUN 15,6 7,1 13,0 5,9
          NEW 4,5 9,5 7,0 -2,5
          QPR 9,5 7,8 8,0 0,2
          SOT 3,6 11,1 4,0 -7,1
          STO 8,0 8,9 8,0 -0,9
          SUN 2,3 6,2 3,0 -3,2
          SWA 6,4 7,9 8,0 0,1
          TOT 5,9 7,6 7,0 -0,6
          WBA 0,9 9,8 2,0 -7,8
          WHM 8,1 7,7 8,0 0,3

          1. Gilles
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 3 months ago

            With :
            Teams / Potential GS GWs17-22 / GW11 GS expectations GW11-16 / Actual GS GW11-16 / Variance

          2. Gilles
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 3 months ago

            I actually try to read the data, but it's tough...
            So, for example, Arsenal are expected to score 9.3 goals gws 17-22, were expected to score 7.1 from gw 11 to 17 and scored 10 goals (+2.9 difference).

  9. Zasa
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Gilles, you're a legend. Stellar article, cheers for the info 🙂

    1. Gilles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      Thanks a lot 🙂
      If this fan help somebody else thanks me 🙂
      I tend to use this to plan my transfers from 4 gws ago...

      1. Gilles
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 3 months ago

        *can help

  10. Bedknobs and Boomsticks
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    That's a hell of a correlation over the last 6 weeks

    1. Gilles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      Some are spot on. Some less.:-)
      Hopefully this can help...

  11. Skragnarok
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Arsenal have conceded five goals in their last six away (an average of 1.7 goals conceded per game)

    How is this worked out?

    1. tm245
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      Was wondering that as well.

      1. Gilles
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 3 months ago

        Sorry, you need to read: "in the 3 games away they had in the past 6, Arsenal conceded 5 goals, or 1.7 average"
        Hope dit helps...

  12. BeardedOldMan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    I really like this analysis, thanks Gilles.

    Have you tested efficacy - run it over an older period to check predictive power?

    1. Gilles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      You can find the reverting analysis over the past 6 in the players table.
      I'll do the same for teams next gw...

  13. tm245
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Really cool stuff - I am the Anonymous Manatee in the Google spreadsheet, I think.

    1. Gilles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      🙂
      Glad you like it.

  14. Saint Steve-O (@EliteFPL)
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    What a very simple, yet solid/informative read... Thanks

    1. Gilles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      Welcome 🙂

  15. Mata-Is-The-Juan
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Solid article, good work.

    1. Gilles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      Mata is the man at the moment.
      Thanks.

  16. icywrists23
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    siggy> hazard?

    I have 5.1 ITB and 1FT

    or should i wait as hazard hasn't really done much in his away games. Are hazard owners worried that he hasn't scored an away goal in epl?

  17. ViperStripes
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Brilliant read. Going to do Costa > RVP next week I think, barring any emergency injury transfers.

    1. Gilles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      Not doing it this week ? 🙂

  18. Kerz
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Cracking article, thanks Gilles :mrgreen:

    1. Gilles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      Welcome !

  19. Dino
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Granny always said if you don't have something nice to say then say nothing at all so I think I need to bite my tongue on these articles.

    So not commenting on the articles but on prediction based on past results in general how on earth can people think this can be remotely accurate? The level of teams played in the last 6 along with form, formation and available playing resource fluctuations mean that comparing results over the past 6 games can have almost no bearing on the next 6 gws. Look at Southampton and villa for wild changes in form due to both injuries and fixture changes. Southampton will now look like an easy team to score against due to goals conceded while they would have looked almost impossible to score against 6 gws ago.

    Fine work on the writing and editing

    1. Gilles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      I do take your point.
      But as all numbers, it needs obviously to ba analysed with every information you have and that could help you make your own decision 🙂
      The point of this is not to tell people who to buy because there will be changes to the trends: teams form, players form, injuries (Aguero is in the top 3 forward due to his great performances in the matches before his injury, but I'm not telling peolple to buy it obviously :-))...
      Here, you just need to take it as a new information that gives you an "as if the teams and players were in the same form as they were in the pas 6, what could be the outcome in terms of goal scoring".
      As for the past 6, you are right saying Southampton's form went down (4 goals scored vs 11.1 expected). Like WBA (2 goals scored vs 9.8 expected).
      And ManU were a better attackingprospect than the analysis was suggesting 6 weeks ago (13 goals scored vs 7.1 expected).
      You could argue AVL were not that more attacking: 5 goals scored vs 1.2 expected.
      But these are the only teams with big changes in form (for me).

      1. Dino
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 3 months ago

        I guess you've covered all of my points about trying to use the last 6 for future predictions. It might be slightly useful if you are looking at teams with the same fixture difficulties and playing resource profiles with the same form and injury etc but this will almost never be the case.

        I think you are more or less doing something similar to the RMT tool but not as sophisticated and I don't think that tool is much use either.

  20. Uppercut Panda - A legend i…
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    This article gave me a thickening.

  21. Hurricane
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    First of all, i must say this is just a brilliant piece of analysis. Amazing work.
    Secondly, Could you please explain something to me?
    What's the difference between "Expected attacking points" and "Potential attacking points"?
    Also, why don't actual and expected points in the gws 12-17 sheet match the past 6 actual and expected points in the gws 17-22 sheet?
    Thank You! Cheers!

    1. Gilles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      Same same. Expected and potential are the same.
      As for the difference in terms of points in the 2 spreadsheets, I need to check these, but it may be cause one of the 2 is from gw 11.
      It will have to wait Monday when I will be back to work 🙂

      1. Gilles
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 3 months ago

        After having looked back at the spreadsheets, the expected (which is past) on this gw's spreadsheet is from gw11 to 16. So not exactly the same time frame.
        I will check that anyway on Monday 🙂