Scouting the Doubles – Gameweek 37 – Arsenal

Arsenal remain third in the table, three points behind Manchester City, after Monday night’s 1-0 home defeat to Swansea ahead of their double Gameweek. With a top three finish set to clinch automatic qualification for next season’s Champions League, Sunday’s trip to Old Trafford is crucial, then, given that Louis van Gaal’s side sit just two points behind the Gunners in fourth. A home clash with Sunderland three days later will pose different questions, with the Black Cats battling to secure their Premier League status for another year.

The Prospects

Arsene Wenger’s men head into the encounter against Man United after sustaining their first defeat in 11 outings since losing to Tottenham in early February. That ten-match unbeaten run saw the Gunners score 21 goals, whilst only conceding six. The goals have been spread throughout the team since that defeat at White Hart Lane, with Olivier Giroud (seven), Alexis Sanchez (four) and Aaron Ramsey (three) all having their moments.

Given Arsenal have already won at Old Trafford this season, thanks to their 2-1 triumph in the FA Cup back in March, a trip to the Theatre of Dreams shouldn’t hold too many fears. United bounced back from three consecutive defeats to beat Crystal Palace 2-1 at Selhurst Park on Saturday, and had won their six previous home league matches prior to the surprise 1-0 home loss to West Brom earlier his month, scoring an impressive 18 goals. Arsenal have conceded exactly one goal in four of their last five away league matches, making a shut-out against United appear unlikely.

A clean sheet against Sunderland looks much more realistic, with the Gunners registering shut-outs in five of their last eight in the league in front of their own fans, although the Black Cats have found the back of the net in the last two matches on their travels. Arsenal have failed to score in their last two at home, despite racking up 34 goal attempts, but while the Black Cats look a tighter unit at the back under Dick Advocaat, they have still allowed 22 shots from inside the box in their last couple of outings.

The context of the Sunderland match may well depend on the outcome of this weekend’s results, though. If the Black Cats beat Leicester at home, and Hull lose at Tottenham, Advocaat’s side will already be safe by the time they visit the Emirates.

Ahead of investing in the Arsenal squad, it’s also worth taking the FA Cup Final into consideration, which could potentially see Wenger rotate in Gameweek 38. If Arsenal draw at United, for example, and then get the better of Sunderland, they will clinch a top three spot with one match remaining. This would afford the Gunners boss the option of handing a number of his first-team a rest for the season finale at home to West Brom. Conversely, if they are beaten at Old Trafford and draw with the Black Cats, the race for third would go down to the wire and should see Wenger roll out his regulars from here on in.

The Likely Lads

Since replacing Wojciech Szczesny as the Gunners first choice in January, David Ospina (5.0) has provided great value in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), keeping seven clean sheets in 15 appearances. The Colombia international didn’t cover himself in glory for Bafetimbi Gomis’ late winner on Monday night, but should keep his place for the double, although there is the possibility that Wenger will give Szczesny a run-out in the league before the FA Cup final on May 30. The Poland international is favourite to line up at Wembley, having started in every match since the fourth round, and won’t have played since the semi-final against Reading on April 18.

Laurent Koscielny (6.0) is the choice pick among the defenders due to the threat of rotation to the cheaper Hector Bellerin (4.8) and Nacho Monreal (4.9). The French international has scored three times this season, despite only making 25 appearances, while he has also bagged 12 bonus points, more than any other Arsenal defender. With Gabriel and Calum Chambers the other options for Wenger at centre-back, Koscielny looks very likely to start both matches.

Although Santi Cazorla hasn’t netted since Gameweek 26, the Spanish international has registered the second most shots (nine) from inside the box among midfielders in the last four matches. That is all the more surprising given he is playing alongside Francis Coquelin in the double-pivot in midfield, but with penalty duties also in the locker, you can see why over 20,000 FPL managers have transferred the 8.3-priced Cazorla in so far this week.

Mesut Ozil has only been brought in by 4,000+ FPL owners this week, the least of any of the Likely Lads, but the German international does lead all midfielders for chances created (15) in the last four matches. While his assist potential is high, the 8.9-valued midfielder has only managed four shots from inside the box over the same period – with an ownership of just 4.2%, then, Ozil can be seen as a differential for the double.

Despite being fielded on the right flank, Aaron Ramsey (8.8) has undoubtedly been the form Arsenal midfielder over the last two months, scoring three goals and providing four assists in his last seven appearances,. The Welshman could find his place under threat from Theo Walcott or Danny Welbeck (if fit) for the double, but given his form, Wenger is likely to find a spot for Ramsey, although he could feature in a deeper role as he did against Swansea following Jack Wilshere’s introduction.

With 200 points in FPL this season, Alexis Sanchez has clearly been the star performer at the Emirates. The Chilean looks the most certain of all the midfielders to start both matches against United and Sunderland given his importance to the side, and is unsurprisingly the clear leader in this week’s Captain Poll with 67% of the vote. He leads all midfielders for shots from inside the box in the last four matches with 12, and offers the most explosive potential out of all the Arsenal attacking assets, having registered eight double-digit hauls this season.

Having scored 14 goals this season, Olivier Giroud is an obvious target for the double. The French international has worryingly blanked in his last four outings, however, and has only registered one shot on target over that period. With Walcott offering another option for Wenger up front, and Welbeck potentially back in contention, the 8.7-rated forward could lose some minutes as he did against Swansea. There is no doubt he remains Arsenal’s main forward, though, and with the stakes raised following Monday’s defeat, he still looks likely to play a significant role over the double.

The Cheeky Punts

Having started 12 of Arsenal’s last 15 matches in the league, Hector Bellerin (4.8) has become a fixture in Wenger’s back four in the absence of Mathieu Debuchy. The Spaniard has scored twice and provided one assist this campaign, with his attacking raids down the right flank a key to the Gunners success during the second half of the season. Debuchy remains a doubt for the trip to Old Trafford with a hamstring injury, but his return to fitness could see Bellerin rested for either the home encounter with Sunderland or the Gameweek 38 clash against West Brom, while Chambers is another option for Wenger at right-back.

Jack Wilshere has featured as a substitute in Arsenal’s last two matches and has impressed off the bench, creating six chances in just 55 minutes. Coming in at 6.3 in FPL, he is much cheaper than the other midfield options at the Emirates, so should he force his way into the starting XI for either match of the double, he could prove to be a handy differential, with an ownership of just 2.2%.

Theo Walcott has struggled to force his way into the starting XI since returning from injury at the turn of the year. His versatility offers Wenger an alternative to Ramsey on the right or Giroud up front, though, and should he start in either of the fixtures, certainly has the potential to provide attacking returns. Setting you back 8.2 in FPL, though, Walcott clearly would be a risk, given his lack of playing time in recent months.