Why Brad Pitt Would Win the Fantasy Premier League

A few months ago I settled down to watch Brad Pitt star in ‘Moneyball.’ It was a fairly average film, largely one-dimensional but lit up by the occasional chuckle-inducing witticism provided by Jonah Hill. It raised, however, intriguing questions on the idea of ‘value,’ and how our prejudices and preconceptions can have a negative effect on our capacity to make decisions in everyday life — not least in Fantasy Football. Specifically, I aim to explore two ideas: firstly, how to identify value by ignoring prejudice, and secondly, why thinking in terms of probability rather than certainty is the key to success.

Moneyball Theory Explained

The theme of Moneyball is based on the work of Bill James, a mathematician who used statistics to change perceptions in sport, and although the plot surrounds baseball, the principles can be applied to a large extent in football, and Fantasy games in particular. The theory can be summarised by the following quote from Jonah Hill’s character:

“It’s about getting things down to one number. Using the stats and the way we read them, we’ll find value in players that no one else can see. People are overlooked for a variety of biased reasons and perceived flaws. Age, appearance, personality. Bill James and mathematics cut straight through that.”

While I am not always one for statistics, this got me thinking about the ‘biased reasons and perceived flaws’ that prevent me from succeeding in Fantasy Football. Human beings are incapable of being totally objective — it is simply impossible. As a Man United fan, I probably do favour Wayne Rooney over Diego Costa, and as a fan who likes to see good football, perhaps it was my dislike of Branislav Ivanovic’s frequent play-acting that prevented me from drafting him in last term — to my own detriment.

Consciously or otherwise, we all allow emotions to interfere with our decisions. Players are disregarded because of their age, playing style, the unfashionable team they play for or even their ugly looks. If Stoke’s Jonathan Walters was a little less portly, had the dashing looks of a Cesc Fabregas, and played for a more fashionable side, his 3.1% ownership would be significantly higher. He offers fantastic value. He is a proven performer, with just shy of 600 points in the last 5 years, with a paltry price tag — and yet he is constantly overlooked because of a poor reputation and factors that are irrelevant to his output.

This same concept applies to teams, too: I was staggered, looking at the final league table, to discover that Sunderland have accrued as many clean sheets as Arsenal in 2014/15. They have had 47 in the last four seasons, and yet due to the odd hammering (Southampton and Villa come to mind) I have always seen them as a leaky, relegation-battling outfit. Subsequently, not once have I considered recruiting a Sunderland defender.

A Good First Impression

Person A is strong, gallant, brave, confident, cold-hearted, selfish and arrogant.

Person B is arrogant, selfish, cold-hearted, confident, brave, gallant, and strong.

First impressions are extremely powerful. After reading the above character descriptions, almost everyone prefers Person A because of the imprint left by the initial, positive personality traits. This can leave a bias that is difficult to overcome. In Fantasy terms, if you see a player for the first time and he has a bad game, or if you draft a new player in and he blanks, you are less likely to pick him again — even if he offers value.

In order to overcome bias, you need to first identify what exactly draws you to, or from, a player. Think carefully before discarding a player: is your dismissive attitude based on evidence, or personal prejudice? Only by realising the bias that affects our selection can we hope to overcome it — therefore, I implore you, when the prices are released in July, find a reason not to select a player before casting him aside.

Trust The Statistics

I have always held the same views as most football fans (and, indeed, critics of Bill James): that sport can’t be defined by numbers, it is not an exact science — there are intangibles that only an experienced spectator can spot. Footballers are not robots: they are human beings, inconsistent and imperfect, who cannot be judged by statistics.

But then I thought about it for a while, and it dawned on me: my opinions are irrelevant. I realised that it is precisely because football and its variables are so unpredictable that we need data to make informed decisions. As much as we like to think that we can predict outcomes of games, the truth is that the result itself is random. This fact is the reason bookmakers survive. Our best hope is to find the probability of an outcome using all the available data. This concept is hinted at by Billy Beane, the pioneering coach of a low-budget baseball side, in his criticisms of a disgruntled scout:

“You don’t have a crystal ball. You can’t look at a kid and predict his future any more than I can. I’ve sat at those kitchen tables with you and listened to you tell parents, “When I know, I know, and when it comes to your son, I know.” And you don’t — you don’t.”

Ultimately, whatever we like to tell ourselves, we cannot predict who will score at the weekend with any degree of certainty whatsoever. Football’s unpredictability, especially in the Premier League, is the reason we love it. We don’t have crystal balls, and we will never be right every time, whether we use statistics or not. You shouldn’t be asking “Will Hazard score at the weekend?” – you should be asking “What is the probability that he will score?” It doesn’t matter whether we think he will or not — Hazard himself isn’t bothered about that. Using evidence and/or your own knowledge, weigh up the probability of success.

Conclusion

Finally, to be clear: I often go with my gut over the statistics and take on a player who, on the evidence available, does not represent good value. Sometimes it pays off; mostly it doesn’t. This is my downfall as a manager, but I do it anyway for the heck of it. There is no correct way to assemble a baseball squad, or pick a Fantasy Football team. This article is intended not to preach, or to further the cases of individual players, but rather to encourage people to think about the impacts of their preconceptions, and the benefits of accepting our inability to predict Premier League matches. Furthermore, I simply wanted to share what I found to be an interesting concept, and provide an alternative perspective on how we all make decisions.