Fantasy Premier League – Player List Analysis – Mid-Price Forwards

We roll out the penultimate article in our assessment of this year’s Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Player List this evening, After casting an eye over the Goalkeepers, Budget Defenders, Mid-Price Defenders, Premium Defenders, Budget Midfielders, Mid-Price Midfielders, Premium Midfielders and
Budget Forwards, we analyse the available options in the mid-price bracket up front.

Arsenal’s Danny Welbeck carries a 7.5 price tag after scoring just four times in 25 appearances in his debut season at the Emirates. With Olivier Giroud and Theo Walcott surely ahead of him in the pecking order for the lone striker role, in addition to fierce competition for the attacking midfield slots, the England international may not see enough playing time to be regarded as a genuine Fantasy prospect. Welbeck is also a slight doubt for the start of the new season with a knee injury that has taken longer to heal than expected.

Chelsea pair Loic Remy and Radamel Falcao have both been priced at 7.5, though their pitch time is likely to be determined by Diego Costa’s ability to remain free from injury and suspension. Bearing in mind that Costa was restricted to just 24 starts last term, there’s certainly a chance that at least one of the pair will benefit at some point, though for now, neither looks worth gambling over, given how precious our three striker slots are. Remy could be worth considering if a mooted move to Palace or West Ham transpires, though.

Despite what was a pretty disappointing campaign last year, Romelu Lukaku appears to be one of the stronger options in the mid-price bracket. The Belgian international comes in at 8.0 this season and may benefit from only having the Premier League to focus on, having played a major role in Everton’s Europa League campaign last term. His goal conversion rate of 9.5% is a concern, however, while the Toffees tough opening schedule mean it’s only when the fixtures ease from Gameweek 11 that he may begin to feature on our radars. Nonetheless, Lukaku looks a secure option – he started 32 times last term, a tally bettered by only four other forwards, whilst he’s now scored at least ten times in all three of his seasons in the top-flight.

Over on the red half of Merseyside, summer signing Danny Ings and Mario Balotelli have been valued at 7.5 and 7.0 respectively. With Daniel Sturridge ruled out for the opening part of the season, it remains to be seen who Brendan Rodgers will opt for up front, though, after the Reds triggered Christian Benteke’s release clause at Villa. Owned by over 14% of FPL managers, Ings was fielded on the right of a front three in Liverpool’s previous friendly but with Rodgers full of options in the final third, he looks far from certain to lead the line in the season ahead. After a disappointing first year at Anfield, Balotelli looks set for the exit door if the Reds can find a buyer.

Another two forwards that could be set to leave the Premier League are Manchester City duo Edin Dzeko (7.5) and Stevan Jovetic (7.0). The Bosnian striker has been linked with a move to Roma, while former Fiorentina man Jovetic could also be set for a return to Serie A. Both look to be behind Sergio Aguero and Wilfried Bony in the pecking order, while latest addition Raheem Sterling can also play in various roles across the forward line. Even if Dzeko or Jovetic don’t depart this summer, it is very unlikely either will be viable Fantasy options in the forthcoming campaign.

In just 22 appearances last season, Papiss Cisse (6.5) managed to score 11 times and ended the campaign with a goal conversation rate of 24.4%, second only to Diego Costa’s 26.3%. New boss Steve McClaren utilised a 4-3-3 at Derby last year and has rolled out a 4-2-3-1 system in both matches in charges so far, suggesting a lone striker formation will be favoured. Bearing in mind that the Magpies have been heavily linked with moves for Aleksandar Mitrovic and Charlie Austin, there are still question marks over whether the injury-prone Cisse can remain at the top of the pecking order.

Southampton’s Graziano Pelle and Jay Rodriguez are valued at 8.0 and 7.0 respectively this year and both could provide decent options over the course of the season. Despite a disappointing second half of the 2014/15 campaign, which saw him go on a 14-match scoreless run, Pelle started 37 times last term, more than any other forward, and his physical attributes as a target man should ensure he remains Ronald Koeman’s preferred choice as the lone striker. The more versatile Rodriguez still offers an option on the flanks and, after finally recovering from a year-long knee injury, will be hoping to rediscover the form that saw him net 15 times during 2013/14. Certainly, the Saints’ opening schedule, which pits them against just three of last term’s top three in the first 13 Gameweeks, could barely be kinder and both forwards are already off the mark – Rodriguez has notched twice, whilst Pelle netted in a friendly win over Groningen earlier today.

Coming in at 6.5, fellow Senegal international Mame Biram Diouf is the only Stoke forward in the mid-price category. After scoring 12 goals in the previous campaign, the former United man could be decent value if he can stave off the challenge of new signing Joselu for a starting berth as the lone striker in Mark Hughes’s 4-2-3-1. In terms of goal conversion, Diouf’s 21.4% was fourth among all forwards last year, though his versatility can go against him, with the Potters boss handing him a right flank berth on a number of occasions.

Following Wilfried Bony’s January move to City, it took Bafetimbi Gomis some time to find his best form at Swansea. The France international seemed to improve week-by-week throughout the second half of last season, though, and scored six of his seven goals in his final ten appearances. Now the clear first-choice at the Liberty, with summer signing Eder seemingly offering back-up, Gomis should thrive with the likes of Andre Ayew and Gylfi Sigurdsson providing support from midfield. Available at 7.0, the former Lyon forward – who notched against the likes of Arsenal and City last season – looks one of the more appealing and potentially most consistent options in the mid-price roster. He’s also off the mark this summer, finding the net in a 2-1 win over 1860 Munich earlier tonight.

Saido Berahino was one of last season’s success stories in the budget bracket. After scoring 14 goals, the England U21 has been handed a price hike this time around, though still sets us back a respectable 6.5. The Baggies didn’t create an awful lot of chances last season, ranking 19th out of all 20 Premier League sides for attempts on goal, with more of our Fantasy focus on their reliable defence under Tony Pulis. Nonetheless, a goal conversion rate of 16.3% illustrates how clinical the youngster is in front of goal, though, and after some difficult opening fixtures, spot-kick taker Berahino could provide a viable option as a third forward. The Baggies striker netted in his first appearance of the summer in a friendly win over Charleston Battery earlier this morning.

One of the other stand-out names in this price range is West Ham’s Diafra Sakho, who comes in at 6.5. In an injury-hit campaign that restricted him to 23 appearances, Sakho still netted every 184.1 minutes – that’s sandwiched between Charlie Austin (178.9) and Christian Benteke (192.8), for example. Providing he can steer clear of the treatment room, he should benefit from an attack-minded approach under Slaven Bilic and has four very favourable home matches (LEI, BOU, NEW, NOR) in the first seven Gameweeks. With Andy Carroll (6.5) now expected to be out until mid-October due to an ongoing knee injury, Sakho’s eye for goal could be key to ensuring Bilic’s tenure gets off to a profitable start.