Fantasy Premier League – Player List Analysis – Premium Forwards

It’s time for the final article in our assessment of the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Player List this evening, After looking over the Goalkeepers, Budget Defenders, Mid-Price Defenders, Premium Defenders, Budget Midfielders, Mid-Price Midfielders, Premium Midfielders, Budget Forwards and Mid-Price Forwards, we delve into the big-money frontmen for the season ahead.

Given he only made 27 appearances last season, Olivier Giroud still enjoyed a pretty strong campaign, scoring 14 goals and providing three assists for Arsenal. The France international also finished sixth among all forwards for goal conversion (20%) and scored every 139.6 minutes – on both counts, this was better than any of his previous seasons for the north London club.

Giroud’s prospects for the campaign will largely depend on whether he can stave off the increasing threat of Theo Walcott for the lone striker role. The latter’s hat-trick against West Brom and goal in the FA Cup final certainly strengthened his claim for the central berth and bearing in mind he’s classified as a midfielder, it’s obvious that Walcott would earn major interest if he can wrestle the role away from Giroud.

Certainly, Alexis Sanchez’ absence for the start of the season should allow Giroud to begin up front initially, with Walcott likely to be utilised on the left, but there’s no doubt his place is under increased threat – when the Chilean returns, Arsene Wenger’s use of Walcott will be key to how we asses Arsenal’s main attackers. If Giroud can continue as the main forward, a cost of 9.0 isn’t too pricey, but considering that Sanchez and the cheaper Santi Cazorla and Mesut Ozil bettered his points per appearance last season, many may choose to overlook him regardless.

After scoring 11 goals in 12 appearances under Tim Sherwood during the final months of the 2014/15 campaign, Christian Benteke has been handed a 8.5 price tag for the season ahead. The Belgian’s imminent transfer to Liverpool should see him nailed on until Daniel Sturridge’s eventual return from injury hands Brendan Rodgers a dilemma, though whether he’ll be quite so prolific with a less direct style of play remains to be seen in some Fantasy managers’ eyes. There’s also the matter of spot-kicks to consider – if he’s handed them ahead of Jordan Henderson, many will view the Henderson/James Milner midfield dilemma in a different light. Although Liverpool’s first five away fixtures (sto, ars, mun, eve, tot) aren’t the most enticing, Benteke will have four very kind opening Anfield matches (BOU, WHM, NOR, AVL) to persuade us of his potential. He’s yet to taste any pre-season action, though, and will need to build up his match sharpness to nail down a starting berth from the off.

According to reports, Benteke’s departure could well see Emmanuel Adebayor reunite with Tim Sherwood at Villa Park. The Togo international racked up 11 goals and six assists in 20 appearances under Sherwood in 2013/14 and, at just 6.0, could be one to monitor given that Villa have Bournemouth, Palace, Sunderland, Leicester and West Brom in the first six.

Diego Costa brought a fair share of joy and despair in equal measure to Fantasy managers last season thanks to his goals and regular concerns over the health of his hamstrings. In that sense, the summer break should have given the striker time to heal properly, and having managed a goal conversion rate of 26.3% in his first season at Chelsea, the highest among all forwards, there is no doubting his potential as a Fantasy asset.

Costa looks very fairly priced at 11.0, with the only obvious downside the signing of Radamel Falcao on a season-long loan from Monaco. While the Colombian striker is unlikely to steal many starts from Costa, he could be used as an impact substitute and eat into the Spaniard’s pitch time if Jose Mourinho is looking to protect Costa in the latter stages of matches. When being considered for the captain’s armband, Costa could also do with improving his bonus point tally, picking up only 18 last term, despite scoring 20 times. With Eden Hazard just 0.5 more expensive, though, some may feel the Belgian’s spot-kicks and consistency of starts (38 to Costa’s 24) give him the edge over the Spain international, who missed four matches due to suspension in 2014/15.

Liverpool’s only current forward in the premium price bracket is Daniel Sturridge. Hip and thigh injuries limited the England international to just seven starts in 2014/15, and after undergoing more surgery towards the tail end of last term, it’s hoped that he could be back “hopefully at some point early in the season”. A price tag of 10.5 in FPL looks fairly hefty given those concerns and with Benteke on his way, Brendan Rodgers will feel no need to rush Sturridge back. There’s no doubt he can be Fantasy gold on his day but bearing in mind how last season panned out, Sturridge may need to put together a run of starts before we risk spending a transfer on his services.

Following his most prolific season in English football, 26-goal Sergio Aguero finds himself as the most expensive player in FPL this time around, valued at 13.0. The former Atletico Madrid hitman led all forwards for shots from inside the box (117) despite only making 33 appearances, and still managed an impressive goal conversion rate of 17.6%. Manuel Pellegrini has yet to make it clear when Aguero will join up with his City team-mates after Argentina went all the way to the Copa America final, but there is a chance he could miss the Gameweek 1 trip to West Brom. Should such a situation arise, many FPL owners will likely hatch a plan to bring in Aguero as soon as he returns to action, given his phenomenal record since joining City in 2011, scoring 78 goals in 120 Premier League appearances.

Wilfried Bony found it difficult to break into City’s starting XI following his January move from Swansea, starting only twice, and with Pellegrini likely to switch between 4-2-3-1 and 4-4-2 systems, a lack of regular starts could curb his Fantasy appeal, in much the same way Edin Dzeko has been a risk/reward pick in recent seasons. Unless Aguero picks up a serious injury, Bony, despite a reasonable 8.5 price tag, may struggle to feature on our radars this season. If he manages to nail down a berth alongside the Argentine, though, we may well need to reassess Aguero’s value, given that he’s far more prolific when fielded as a lone frontman.

With Robin van Persie and Falcao no longer at Old Trafford, and Bastian Schweinsteiger and Morgan Schneiderlin brought in to shore up the midfield, the outlook for Wayne Rooneys’ Fantasy prospects this season appear very bright. The skipper looks set to lead the line in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation and with Louis van Gaal admitting last season that Rooney, as his captain, is a sure starter, he may well prove worth the 10.5 outlay. After starting in central midfield a number of times, Rooney managed just 132 points – a far cry from scores of 224, 230 and 190 points in the last six seasons. With the likes of Juan Mata and Memphis Depay at 8.5, though, there are enticing alternatives at Old Trafford – the Spaniard is still in pole position for spot-kicks, whilst new boy Depay scored more direct free-kicks than any player in Europe’s top five leagues last year and will surely snatch a share of dead-ball duties from Rooney.

After something of a “Roy of the Rovers” season, serving up 21 goals and seven assists, Harry Kane now finds himself among the premium options after starting at just 5.0 last year. The Tottenham forward will set us back 9.5 in FPL this season, although he has only scored twice in his last 12 appearances for club and country. That has led to some fears over the heavy workload Kane has had over the past 12 months, with his importance to Spurs meaning he is unlikely to be afforded much rest in the coming campaign. Amongst forwards with over 1000 minutes last year, he sat third for frequency of attempts (24.1) and with penalty duties in the locker, there could still be plenty of upside in selecting Kane in our three-man front lines, despite that hefty price hike.

Kane’s season opener at United may curb early enthusiasm, although memories of his performance against Chelsea last season offers a warning that we should not overlook his potential, regardless of fixture. Following that, Spurs are treated to a smooth passage into the campaign and White Hart Lane clashes with Stoke, Everton and Palace over the next five could see Kane emerge as a top target once again.

With our analysis of the player list now complete, we will revisit all these options ahead of Gameweek One when we compile our Watchlist selection, offering a view on our initial squad recommendations across all four positions.