Fixture Analysis – Rotation Pairs – Crystal Palace and Stoke

We roll out the fifth article in our Fixture Rotation series this afternoon. Having cast an eye over Leicester and Swansea, West Brom and Aston Villa, Bournemouth and Watford and Newcastle and Sunderland, we now look at Crystal Palace and Stoke. Crucially, the duo alternate home/away over the entire 38 Gameweeks and, thanks to some kind pricing in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game, offer us a number of budget backline options for the season ahead.

THE FIXTURES

Taking a closer look at the schedule and picking the fixture according to difficulty, rather than sticking to the home/away option, we’d be handed 14 home matches (nor, ARS, AVL, WBA, MCI, LEI, BOU, WBA, WHM, WAT, new, liv, SUN, NEW, eve, SOT, CPL, bou, SWA) over the first 19 Gameweeks. This leads us into the latter half of the season, when our second Wildcard will become available.

The downside is that we’d need to square up to one of last season’s top four on at least two occasions in the first 19 Gameweeks. This occurs in Gameweek 2 (Palace host Arsenal and Stoke travel to Spurs) and Gameweek 5 (Palace play at home to City and Stoke visit the Emirates), whilst Gameweek 12 (Palace visit Anfield and Stoke host Chelsea) could also pose problems.

Over the second half of the season, the Palace/Stoke combination would be forced to face only one of last term’s top four; this occurs in Gameweek 22, when the Eagles pay visit to the Etihad and Mark Hughes’ men entertain Arsenal.

Looking at the stats from last term, though, it’s fair to say both teams will need to up their resilience. Stoke mustered a mere nine shut-outs in 2014/15 (five at home and four away), whilst Palace produced only two clean sheets in 18 league outings under Alan Pardew.

Neither side offers a strong alternative rotation partner, though. Palace alternate with Newcastle for 28 outings, whilst Stoke rotate with Sunderland for a similar number of matches.

DEFENCE

Stoke
With Asmir Begovic now gone, Jack Butland has been confirmed as the Potters’ new number one for the season ahead. The former Birmingham City keeper claimed two clean sheets in three appearances towards the end of last season and, priced at just 4.5 FPL game, should be a genuine option for Fantasy managers.

Captain Ryan Shawcross and Erik Pieters both come in at 5.0. After totalling only 92 points last term, Shawcross has dropped down from 5.5, and as the most likely to benefit from the new CBI changes, may still prove worth the outlay. Injuries and rotation meant no other Stoke defender made more than 29 starts in 2014/15, with Pieters looking the next most secure option at left-back. Ironically, both have failed to feature in recent matches due to injury but are expected to be fit for the start of the season.

The right-back berth is up for grabs right now, with Phil Bardsley, Geoff Cameron and new signing Glen Johnson all in contention. Certainly, the former two are kinder on the budget at 4.5 apiece, whereas Johnson arrived from Liverpool with a 5.0 price tag attached. We can only hope one of the cheaper options establishes themselves as a regular over pre-season, with the likes of Philipp Wollscheid, Marc Wilson and Spaniard Marc Muniesa all offering alternatives in Hughes’ defence. Given that no Stoke defender broke the 100-point barrier last time out, though, grabbing their new number one may be the best option.

Crystal Palace
Julian Speroni looks set to continue as the first-choice goalkeeper at Selhurst Park and comes in at a mere 4.5 this time around. The Argentine outscored Scott Dann by 115 points to 105 in 2014/15 yet the latter is priced dearer at 5.0 – making him the costliest Palace backline option.

Dann scored twice and bagged four assists last term and was sixth among all defenders for goal attempts from inside the box (19), due to his aerial threat from set-pieces. Alternatively, Joel Ward is nailed on at right-back for just 4.5 and ended last term just 15 points shy of Dann’s tally. Ward made more successful tackles than any other defender in the previous campaign and will benefit from a change to the BPI in that respect.

Damien Delaney was a regular starter under Pardew last term, though the Palace boss is expected to add to his defensive options, making the centre-half somewhat risky. Pape Souare is yet to fully establish himself at left-back but the new boy will be hoping to cement a regular role in his first full season in the top-flight.

Clearly, then, there’s potential for a 9.0 priced rotation pairing here. Butland/Speroni could prove the safest option, though a Ward/Wollscheid partnership may also prove profitable if the Austrian – who has made his deal with the Britannia club permanent over the summer – can clinch that spot alongside Shawcross.

ATTACKING OPTIONS

Stoke
Jonathan Walters led all Stoke’s midfielders in FPL last season, totaling 125 points thanks to eight goals and six assists. At a price of 6.0, the Republic of Ireland international offers a solid if somewhat unspectacular option for Fantasy managers, but with new signing Joselu perhaps replacing Mame Biram Diouf as the lone striker in Hughes’ preferred 4-2-3-1 formation, the Senegalese attacker may compete with Walters for a place on the right flank, hindering the 31-year-old’s prospects.

Joselu scored eight goals for Hannover in the Bundesliga last season, and standing at six foot three inches tall, looks the ideal target man, although Diouf ended the previous campaign in great form and finished as his side’s top scorer after finding the net on 12 occasions.

With Steven N’Zonzi now departed, Charlie Adam will be hoping to nail down a starting role for the forthcoming campaign. The Scotland international scored five goals and provided three assists in Stoke’s final 12 matches, though with just 15 starts to his name in 2014/15, his 6.0 outlay remains a little risky.

Elsewhere in midfield, Marko Arnautovic (6.0) has bagged an impressive 17 assists over the last two campaigns but, like Adam, has struggled to hold down a regular starting place and was named in the first XI on 20 occasions last year. The Austrian has already netted in pre-season, however, and could finally be set to emerge as a viable mid-price option. Peter Odemwingie is now down to 5.0 after injury restricted him to one start last season. Classified as a midfielder, the former West Brom man produced seven goals and two assists in 2013/14 and could be a real under-the-radar option if he can manage to claw his way back into Hughes’ plans.

Bojan Krkic sets us back just 5.5 but, despite being utilised in the attacking midfield three by Hughes, remains classified as a forward. The Spaniard is stepping up his fitness after missing the final few months of the previous campaign and was his side’s number one spot-kick taker prior to being sidelined.

Crystal Palace
Fantasy managers were spoilt for choice from the Eagles midfield last season, with Yannick Bolasie, Jason Puncheon and Wilfried Zaha all providing great options in the mid-price range. The summer purchase of Yohan Cabaye merely adds to our dilemma as Fantasy managers eye up the Eagles’ chief protagonists under Alan Pardew.

Bolasie and Cabaye are the priciest options at 6.5 apiece. The former thrived largely through his assists, notching 12 in 2014/15, and was occasionally utilised up front by Pardew to provide his side with extra pace through the middle. Cabaye’s arrival is expected to take a share of set-pieces from the slightly cheaper Puncheon (6.0), which may well lead to both cancelling one another out as options. Pardew’s set-up may well dictate how we assess the pair, depending on whether either can nail an advanced support role in a 4-2-3-1.

Zaha, meanwhile, struggled for pitch time during the first part of the season under Neil Warnock but cemented a regular role upon Pardew’s arrival. At just 5.5, he averaged more touches in the box and shots inside the area than both Puncheon and Bolasie under Pardew and could prove the best value here if he can find an end product.

In attack, Glenn Murray enjoyed a purple patch under Pardew, scoring six goals in as many appearances, and comes in at 6.0 this time around – the priciest forward on option at the Selhurst Park club. Whilst the likes of Dwight Gayle, Fraizer Campbell (both 5.5) and Marouane Chamakh (5.0) are all cheaper, Pardew’s penchant for a lone striker system limits our options and may persuade many just to stick to the Eagles midfielders. The imminent arrival of Chelsea’s Patrick Bamford on a season-long loan deal merely clouds the situation further.