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The Watchlist Updated – Gameweek 4 – The Defence

With Gameweek 3 put to bed last night following the goalless draw between Arsenal and Liverpool, we’ve given our Watchlist rankings, which offer player recommendations for the next four-to-six Gameweeks, a refresh. With three favourable home fixtures in the next four, Liverpool’s in-form pair Simon Mignolet and Martin Skrtel are among the risers this week, while Bournemouth’s Simon Francis is another moving up by virtue of his impressive attacking statistics.

GOALKEEPERS

With only a trip to the Emirates in Gameweek 5 looking particularly troubling in Stoke’s next six (WBA, ars, LEI, BOU, avl, swa), Jack Butland retains his place on top of our ladder, despite having yet to keep a clean sheet. The 4.5-priced keeper did impress against Norwich on Saturday, registering six saves in the 1-1 draw, despite playing with a broken finger. With West Brom, who have failed to score in two of their three matches, visiting the Britannia on Saturday, the former Birmingham stopper looks a great option this week.

Having yet to concede a goal so far this season, and with three kind home fixtures in the next four (WHM, mun, NOR, AVL), Simon Mignolet moves up to second spot in our rankings. The Belgian international, who is available at 5.1 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), should be able to add to that tally of shut-outs in the coming weeks.

Another keeper who is able to boast a 100% clean sheet record is Manchester City’s Joe Hart. The England number one has four favourable home match-ups in the next six (WAT, cpl, WHM, tot, NEW, BOU), but with a tight squeeze on the three City slots allowed in FPL, and with the attacking potential of Aleksandar Kolarov and Vincent Kompany perhaps offering better ways of covering the City backline, the 5.6-valued keeper may struggle to attract any further investment.

The switch to a 3-4-1-2 formation by Ronald Koeman saw Southampton register their first clean sheet of the season at Watford on Sunday, and with four home fixtures (NOR, MUN, SWA, LEI) over the next six Gameweeks, Maarten Stekelenburg remains a decent option for Fantasy managers. Available for 5.0 in FPL, the Dutch international somewhat surprisingly only has an ownership of 1.8%.

Despite conceding five goals so far this season, Bournemouth’s Artur Boruc remains in our thoughts by virtue of the Cherries favourable upcoming schedule (LEI, nor, SUN, sto, WAT). The Poland international, who will set us back 4.5 in FPL, has yet to register a save point this term, however.

West Brom’s Boaz Myhill moves up a couple of places in our latest update, with the Baggies upcoming fixtures (sto, SOT, avl, EVE, cpl, SUN) pretty reasonable. The 4.5-priced keeper registered a ten-point haul in the goalless draw at Watford in Gameweek 2, and appears likely to add further defensive returns over the upcoming period, with Tony Pulis’ sides generally a reliable source for clean sheets.

Thibaut Courtois returns to the Watchlist this week after registering this season’s first penalty save, denying West Brom’s James Morrison on Sunday. Chelsea’s fixtures over the next few weeks (CPL, eve, ARS, new, SOT, AVL) are mixed, although they do play four times at Stamford Bridge. The Belgian international is the cheapest route into the Blues rearguard at just 5.4 in FPL, but Jose Mourinho’s side have conceded seven goals so far this term, the second-worst record behind Sunderland (eight).

With just two home matches in the next six (sot, BOU, liv, whm, LEI, new), Norwich’s John Ruddy slides down our ladder this time around. The 4.5-valued stopper has also failed to register a shut-out so far this term, so our confidence in the England international for the upcoming period is unsurprisingly on the wane.

Aston Villa’s Brad Guzan remains in contention, with Tim Sherwood’s men facing three favourable home clashes (SUN, WBA, STO) in the next six Gameweeks. The Villans have only conceded three times this season, so the 4.5-priced American still appears to be one of the better options available in the budget price bracket.

Although Swansea have four home fixtures in the next six (MUN, wat, EVE, sot, TOT, STO), Lukasz Fabianski drops a couple of spots this week. None of those match-ups at the Liberty Stadium look particularly straightforward, while the away trip to Southampton also appears tricky on paper. The Welsh outfit have only conceded three times so far this term, though, and have only allowed their opponents 11 shots from inside the box, the fewest among any side in the top flight.

DEFENDERS

With five goal attempts and seven chances created, both the highest among defenders so far this season, Aleksandar Kolarov replaces Vincent Kompany as our favoured City defensive option. The left-back, who now carries a price tag of 5.7 in FPL, has struck up a dangerous partnership with Raheem Sterling down the flank, and while Gael Clichy could steal the odd start, particularly when the Champions League recommences next month, the Serbian’s cheaper price tag and superior attacking threat earns him the nod over the 6.3-valued Belgian for now.

With the remodelled Liverpool backline looking so strong this term, we’re happy to place our faith in Martin Skrtel, particularly given the previously mentioned favourable home match-ups on the horizon. The 5.5-rated Slovakia international has only managed one goal attempt so far this term, though, which does increase the appeal of Reds left-back Joe Gomez, who comes in at a cheaper 4.7 in FPL, although the former Charlton youngster has been cautioned in all three matches this season.

Bournemouth’s Simon Francis picked up his first attacking returns in the Cherries 4-3 win at West Ham on Saturday, laying on the assist for Callum Wilson’s opener, and is joint-second among defenders for chances created (six) this season. The upcoming fixtures (LEI, nor, SUN, sto, WAT) are also in the 4.5-valued defender’s favour, making the right-back a great budget option for the upcoming period.

With Stoke second on the Season Ticker for the next six Gameweeks, Marc Muniesa keeps his place towards the top of our latest rankings. The former Barcelona man, available at 4.5 in FPL, has started all three of the Potters matches so far, and should be able to register his first defensive returns in the coming weeks, with West Brom, Leicester and Bournemouth all visiting the Britannia.

Having played as a wing-back in the 0-0 at Watford, the out-of-position potential of Cedric Soares sees him move up our ladder this week. It remains to be seen if Ronald Koeman continues with the 3-4-1-2 system at home to Norwich on Sunday, but with four goal attempts and six chances created so far this season, the former Sporting Lisbon defender clearly has plenty of attacking potential.

Although Man United have yet to concede, their tough upcoming schedule (swa, LIV, sot, SUN, ars, eve) sees Matteo Darmian fall a few places on our Watchlist. The 5.7-priced Italy international has impressed in his short time at Old Trafford, and with Louis van Gaal’s side looking strong at the back, further shut-outs can’t be discounted despite the tricky fixtures.

Aston Villa’s Micah Richards keeps his place around halfway up our ladder with those three favourable home match-ups (SUN, WBA, STO) over the coming weeks firmly in mind. The former City defender now has an ownership of 10.1% in FPL, and saw his price rise to 4.6 before the 2-1 defeat at Crystal Palace last Saturday.

Craig Dawson is another who moves up a couple of spots this week, with West Brom’s fixtures (sto, SOT, avl, EVE, cpl, SUN) offering hope they can add to the clean sheet registered at Watford in Gameweek 2. The 5.0-rated defender is also a decent threat from set-pieces, having totalled three goal attempts so far this season, with two of those coming from inside the box.

After picking up his first assist of the season in the 1-1 draw at Sunderland, Swansea’s Kyle Naughton remains firmly in our thoughts. The former Tottenham defender has created seven chances this season, the joint highest among defenders along with Kolarov, and has collected four bonus point so far. The upcoming schedule (MUN, wat, EVE, sot, TOT, STO), however, is mixed for Garry Monk’s men.

While Russell Martin has scored in his last two outings, the 4.5-priced Scotland international does face some difficult fixtures (sot, BOU, liv, whm, LEI, new) over the next six Gameweeks. The Canaries stalwart still only has an ownership of 1.5% in FPL, but having scored from two of his three goal attempts, he’s unlikely to maintain that amazing strike rate. The fact that Alex Neil’s side have yet to register a clean sheet also dampens his prospects.

With the 6.9-rated Branislav Ivanovic averaging the same number of goal attempts (0.3) and chances created (0.3) as the cheaper Cesar Azpilicueta, available at 6.0 in FPL, so far this season, we’re opting for the latter in our latest rankings. The Spaniard has notched a goal and assist in his three appearances, and while Chelsea defenders don’t hold the greatest appeal at the moment given their struggles at the back, the former Marseille defender, who’s significantly kinder on the budget, looks the one to target.

Tottenham’s Kyle Walker is, in truth, another who is struggling to justify his price tag, which stands at 5.0 in FPL, having yet to produce defensive or attacking returns. Spurs do face four home fixtures in the next six (EVE, CPL, MCI, LIV), albeit against some tough opposition, but the England full-back does carry an attacking threat, having created three chances this season.

Although Per Mertesacker missed the goalless draw against Liverpool last night due to illness, the 5.5-valued centre-back is expected to return for Arsenal’s trip to St James’ Park on Saturday. The Gunners upcoming schedule (new, STO, che, lei, MUN, wat) is fairly mixed, though, with just two matches in front of their own fans.

A new face on this week’s ladder is Watford’s Allan Nyom, who has sneaked ahead of Sebastian Prodl as our preferred Hornets option at the back. Despite standing at 6ft 4in, Prodl has yet to register a goal attempt this season, although having scored three goals in 22 outings for Werder Bremen last season, the Austrian should offer a decent threat from set-pieces. Right-back Nyom has managed two goal attempts, one from inside the box, and earned maximum bonus in the weekend goalless draw with Southampton. Both will set us back 4.5 in FPL, and with Quique Sanchez Flores’ side registering two shut-outs already this season, offer decent budget options, although they do face City and Arsenal in their next six matches (mci, SWA, new, CPL, bou, ARS).

1,228 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Jinswick
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    A -8 to remove Hazard (CPL) sounds absolutely mental, but I think this may have some legs...

    Shaw, Ozil & Haz -> Sagna, Sanchez & Silva (-8)

    I'm fairly certain I want triple City for their great run of fixtures starting this week, and Silva is looking on fire. Sagna will start the next 3 games and even then Zaba may get eased back in. Shaw has tough fixtures so I don't see too many CS for United in the next run of games. And Sanchez is a much much much bigger goal threat than Hazard.

    1. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      The worst thing I have ever done in fpl is remove Hazard as part of a -8. Destroyed my season.

    2. AK ⭐
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      I don't like the sound of that at all.

      • 8 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      The last sentence makes me laugh at this post

      1. Jinswick
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Why is that? He is.

          • 8 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          Sanchez is a great player, a warrior, fantastic dribbler and stuff. But that doesn't make him a better player than Hazard and not a better prospect in FPL too. Hazard is an extremely dangerous and consistent player and he is on penalties, which I think is the main factor that makes me rate him highet than Alexis.

          1. Doolittle
            • 11 Years
            8 years, 8 months ago

            Sanchez, at the moment, is indisputably a much bigger goal threat than Hazard.

          2. Jinswick
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            8 years, 8 months ago

            Oh, I'm not saying he is a better player, just that he is a bigger goal threat. By that I mean he is far more likely to score. Doolittle posted some stats below which speak for themself.

            I'm probably not going to go ditch him before CPL, but I am tempted as I want Silva and Sanchez long term and I can then keep my WC for later on.

          3. Pariße
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 8 months ago

            Sanchez is a bigger goal threat, that's a fact...he didn't even say he's better...and even if he did, it wouldn't be something to laugh about.

            1. Jethrik
              • 8 Years
              8 years, 8 months ago

              Sanchez isn't a bigger goal threat, he plays for Arsenal.

              1. Somalion
                • 14 Years
                8 years, 8 months ago

                Sanchez 16 goals in 2942 minutes of league football last season.

                Hazard 14 goals in 3367 minutes.

                M'kay.

                1. Somalion
                  • 14 Years
                  8 years, 8 months ago

                  And this ignores the fact that Hazard takes pens.

                  1. Jethrik
                    • 8 Years
                    8 years, 8 months ago

                    And Sanchez misses them.

                    1. Somalion
                      • 14 Years
                      8 years, 8 months ago

                      Great argument despite how he doesn't take them at Arsenal.

                      1. Jethrik
                        • 8 Years
                        8 years, 8 months ago

                        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JylfV61E9nA

                        Against QPR. Absolutely abysmal penalty.

      2. Doolittle
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Sanchez has had 13 shots, 12 in the box, 3 headed attempts, and 6 blocked shots this season, registering an attempt every 15 minutes. Hazard has had 3 shots, 0 headed attempts, and 0 blocked shots, registering an attempt every 95 minutes.

        Hazard has played 285 minutes, Sanchez 199.

        1. Camp No No
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          Note: the rate of shots that an attacking player/team has blocked fluctuates massively.

    3. Boris Bodega
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      I wouldn't do this, personally, I see the logic, but do you really expect to recoup those 8 points?

      1. Jinswick
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Maybe not in 1 week, but over 3 weeks I can.

        Shaw (swa, LIV, sot) - 2, 2, 2
        Ozil (new, STO, che) - 6, 7, 2
        Haz (CPL, eve, ARS) - 9, 2, 6

        Total = 38

        Sagna (WAT, cpl, WHU) - 7, 2, 7
        Silva (WAT, cpl, WHU) - 13, 7, 8
        Sanchez (new, STO, che) - 10, 15, 2

        Total = 71

        1. Boris Bodega
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          Ha, I do love an optimist 🙂 GL, and I mean than sincerely

          • 8 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          That's very optimistic. Will come back here in 3 weeks. Good luck to you

        2. SUAREZ_MESSI_COUTINHO
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          😀

        3. NATSTER
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          Wow. Not sure if it's that straight.

          But, follow your beliefs. It's a part of game.

          Anyway, I'm feeling not so right to lose Hazard on -8p hit.

        4. RustyBz
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          lol

    4. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Absolutely not

      • 10 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Take a walk Jinssie that's mental.

    5. RustyBz
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      No, no and no!

    6. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Hazard will tear it up.

    7. ZLATAN'S PONYTAIL
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Go for it!

      Your selections look great. I do think that United’s defence shielded by Schwein/Schneiderlin/Carrick looks awfully compact and well drilled

      Thoughts on my team?

      Fab (Myhill)
      Darmian/Sagna/Martin (Richards/Smith)
      Silva Mahrez Redmond Montero Depay (want to sub out Depay for Coutinho/Sanchez)
      Gomis Aguero Pelle (Can bring in Benteke if I choose Coutinho)

      1. Jinswick
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Yeah, that's a fair point on the MUN defence being protected.

        Your team looks good to me. I'd start Richards over Martin this week and I'd also go for Depay --> Sanchez and keep Pelle for NOR

    8. jdoyle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Looks good. Do it, son.

    9. Pariße
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      First you should consider the chances of Shaw (swa), Ozil (new) and Hazard (CRY) bringing you points...and that's also the last thing you have to consider.

  2. JaydenLFC87
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    G2G??? Have 1FT

    Butland
    Williams\Richards\Gomez\Kompany
    Sanchez\Silva\Mahrez
    Aguero(C)\Benteke\Gomis

    Mccarthy\Payet\Targett\Westwood .1itb

    1. nad
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      I think I'd play Payet over Williams - but looks good overall.

    2. ZLATAN'S PONYTAIL
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      GTG

  3. rdamjan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Payet to Chadli or Shaqiri

    Yay or nay

    tnx

    1. PainInDiaz
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      I give it a 'Hmm'

    2. JaydenLFC87
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Shaqiri maybe

    3. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Chadli. He's going to be so consistent this year.

  4. skeanos
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Every time some one says KDB I keep seeing King Black Dragon. Too strong for the premier league boys. No one would cope.

  5. Long Juan Silva
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    I love how players use being linked with a move to Man United to just get a better contract where they are.

    1. Kings of Lyon ★
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      I dont. I would like Man U to sign a world class player before the window closes

      1. The Raging Bull
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        yeh, like WC players are ten a dozen who want to sign for united and their respected clubs happily sell.

      2. Long Juan Silva
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Neymar and Ramos though? Hardly realistic. Even some DM from Lazio they didn't need got a new contract out of it.

  6. Gooner97
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Butland (Ruddy)
    Ivanovic Targett Francis Huth, Koscielny*
    Hazard Mahrez Yaya, Wanyama Mane*
    Deeney Rooney Kane

    1FT, 1.2ITB

    Rooney & Kane to Kun & Gomis is what I'm thinking now; but I also have two "doubtful" players.

  7. Azathoth
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Help a fellow manager who doesn't know what to do

    a)Hold FT and watch Kane's price falling.
    b)Kane to Benteke or Gomis or Diouf.
    c)Kane & Giroud to Costa & Gomis or Diouf for -4.
    d)Kane & Giroud & Chadli to Benteke & Gomis/Diouf & Pedro for -8.
    e)Shoot me.

    Thanx.

    1. Stats Don\'t Lie
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      B

    2. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      A

    3. Judas
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      C. diouf

    4. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Depends where you are in league.. Kane been very unlucky not to score and he will score..when he does he is now a good differential..

      *loads up sniper rifle "

    5. United come on!
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      The problem with Kane, for me, is he still has some good stats and no other outstanding options out there. He stays with me one more week. City options are way more urgent.

    6. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      I'd be looking to shift Giroud before Kane.

      1. Odikostar
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        why?

  8. The Sarjeant
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    New Weekly Article - Another Sneak Preview.

    'Team Form Focus' is a new weekly article analysing the in-form teams in the league and the ones failing to deliver. There will also be a section highlighting a good captaincy option or player to do well based on form - this may not always be the most obvious choice captain or player for that week (eg. This weeks most popular captaincy choice is Agüero v Watford, Agüero isn't in-form but Watford are defensively.) Another piece I'll be analysing is teams who are likely to keep clean sheets for that Gameweek.

    The first article will be published for Gameweek 5. This will take into account the last 4 Gameweeks. The article for Gameweek 6 will be based on the last 5 Gameweeks. Then for Gameweek 7 onwards, it will be based on the last 6 Gameweeks.

    Here's a little sneak preview of the table which will be included in the article (since posting about this previously, I've taken on board suggestions and included the fixtures which the data is taken from) - http://imgur.com/kFIZTph

    Also, in the table there will be green and red coloured numbers to easily identify which teams are in-form and which teams aren't quite doing so well.

    1. NATSTER
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      I'm always doubt for why FFS have done most analysis and plan on 6 Gameweeks.

      Can you enlighten me please?

  9. Arsenal USA FC
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    How to work price rises when on WC? Add players rising to boost Value then add those you want?

    1. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      As long as they go up 0.2 you can move them on for a profit.

      1. Arsenal USA FC
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Ok thanks

    2. meerlight
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      yep. wc on a saturday and bring in players that are rising. hope to catch a double riser that you can sell. pick actual team on the following saturday. be carefulnot to transfer players out that you want in your final team that have added value locked in them

  10. The Royal Robin
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Two Q's...

    How many double GW's are there this season, and when are they?

    1. Boris Bodega
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Two A's

      No one knows, and no one knows.

      1. Epic Fail
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        +1

        Yet. Next year at some point.

    2. meerlight
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      wait for games to be called off for weather or cup commitments and then rescheduled (DGWs, probably)

  11. Rupert The Horse
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Just told the pub I work at that I'm being linked with Man UTD. Fingers crossed.

    1. Long Juan Silva
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      😆

    2. Azathoth
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Woodward was there to talk with the management for your transfer?

      1. Rupert The Horse
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Adrian Chiles

  12. rozzo
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Worth keeping Payet even though fixtures are bad and west ham dont have any fit strikers?

  13. nad
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Latest dilemma (on WC):

    What would you prefer of...?

    A) Pedro, Sanchez, Huth (or other 4.5)

    B) Hazard, Coutinho, Joemez & 0.7 ITB

    1. The Royal Robin
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      A for me.

    2. Judas
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      A

    3. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      A

    4. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      A

    5. dykeypunk
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      A (Muniesa)

    6. DVassell
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Pedro's Sanchez Francis

  14. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Just received an unsolicited email from Fantasy iTeam (FiT). Don't ever remember giving them my email address.

    Is that the game advertised by an article on here?If so do I need to click something on FFS about receiving spam on things I don't want?

    1. roscola
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Same. I wondered how they got it. It might be connected with The Mirror - did you play any of their games? (World Cup, Euros etc)

      1. Epic Fail
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Aye it's the Mirror game.

        1. roscola
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          Damn their eyes 😐

      2. Jafooli
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Never played a Mirror Game, thought it might be PlayOn linked, which I did dabble in two seasons ago.

  15. dmhomag
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Repost of my deadzone post earlier of a MoneyBall analysis to transfer hits.

    I know that points and value are different but is there a formula that you go by when deciding to take a hit -4 to gain TV? I recall a recent article that calculated an expected seasonal return per 0.1m?

    Here's my rough thinking. Target = 2000 points per season = 20 / 1 m = 2 per 0.1m. if we multiply by 35/38 GW remaining in the season, we get 1.84 points per 0.1m of TV.

    If you sell a player to avoid a drop or if you get a double riser, that is 0.2 (i.e. 0.1 sale value) with 35 GW left, the TV benefit is worth 1.84 points.

    You therefore need the replacement player to only net you more than 2.16 points over an injured player who won't play. Even if he blanks for 2 points, you are still close to break even.

    A hit to avoid a drop and gain a double riser like Mahrez = 2 x 1.84 = 3.68. It almost pays for the 4 point hit.

    This is the case early in the season. Towards the end of the season, the TV benefit gets lower and you will reach a point where the replacement player must outscore by the entire -4 in GW38.

    1. Ruth_NZ
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      My ballpark calculation was that 0.5 discretionary spend is worth 0.43 points per GW.

      http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2015/08/04/player-value-revisited/

      As you need an 0.2 rise to get 0.1 discretionary spend that means a 1.0 rise in TV is worth the ballpark 0.43.

      0.43 x 35 = 15 FPL points over the season. That's what I'd estimate an increase in TV of 1.0m is worth right now. It's not huge.

      At Xmas, say you have a TV of 105.00. 5 x 0.43 x 19 = 36/37 FPL points that you could expect to gain in the 2nd half of the season against a team that had remained at 100.0. Again, not huge. 36/37 points will be about the gap between a 10k and a 5k ranking. But of course none of the top 10k will have a team worth 100.00.

      The money game has some importance but it's likely to be of modest significance in the big picture.

      1. dmhomag
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Thanks Ruth. Loved your post. The key difference is that you used the top score to value your points whereas I took a more generic 2000 (top 200k).

        Your first million is worth more than your last million so i am not sure if your extra 1m should be pegged to the best score last year.

  16. ZTF
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Guys please give me some feedback here!

    Guzan (Myhill)
    Darmian Muniesa Kolarov (Williams) (Oxford)
    Sanchez Redmond Silva Payet (Wanyama)
    Wilson Aguero Lukaku

    I have enough for Redmond - Mahrez and Oxford - Gomez over the next two weeks as long as they don't rise too much. Good to go?

    1. It's his Job.
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Lukaku>Diouf Wanyama>Mahrez or Payet to Pedro

  17. Judas
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Im think im going to use my Wildcard tonight, which is best:

    A: Sanchez + Chadli + Kolarov

    B: Ozil + Toure + Kolarov + £1.1m ITB

    C: Silva + Ozil + Sagna

    D: Toure + Sanchez + Kolarov + Wilson (dropping Gomis)

    1. It's his Job.
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      D for me..

    2. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      A by a chuffing mile.

      1. Pegboy
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        On 2nd thoughts, still A but D close behind.

      2. It's his Job.
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Mmm so Chadli over Yaya not for me and City's fixtures pretty good up to end of Nov.

        1. Pegboy
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          Chadli will score more over the season than YYT. He's insane value, IMO. Whether you decide to spend the money on upgrading Wilson to Gomis is by the by. Hard to tell without seeing the whole team.

    3. Boris Bodega
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      hmmmm....I think C for me.

    4. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      D or A

    5. El-Kloppico
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      C or D

    6. Judas
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      I think I agree with A or D.

      only problem with A is that it doesnt give me a City Mid, will Chadli perform?

      Only problem with D is that I would be dropping Gomis (in form and price due to rise), but would cover both arsenal and city mids. Will Toure + Wilson outscore Chadli + Gomis?

      1. dykeypunk
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        I think YYT will outscore Chadli and Wilson could possibly outscore Gomis

    7. dykeypunk
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Its a D from me

    8. meerlight
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      D they are all players that could do extremely well. gomis +0.1 is a reasonable sacrifice

    9. Back on the horse
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      D for dawg

  18. It's his Job.
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Gomis>Wilson on fixtures or leave alone? both scored handful.

    1. nad
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      3 in 3 is more convincing than 3 in 1 for me; I'd stick with Gomis.

      1. Ayew Serious
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Bps

      2. RustyBz
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        This

      3. It's his Job.
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Cool Cheers. Just by doing that i could have then done Depay to Pedro with funds..

    2. El-Kloppico
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      If swansea does score against Man Utd, it gonna be Gomis!

      1. Ayew Serious
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Ayew... Serious?

        1. Ayew Serious
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          Also, Swansea are likely to score more than one!

        2. Boris Bodega
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          Ayew Shaw?

    3. Long Juan Silva
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Swans have decent fixtures too

  19. TheOrangeMan
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Chadli or Ayew?

    1. Ayew Serious
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Ayew but Chadli is worth a shout

    2. El-Kloppico
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Chew

      1. TheOrangeMan
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        if only!

    3. Long Juan Silva
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Chadli

  20. Sushant
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Best strike partnership for the coming game weeks?

    My pick : Benteke - Aguero - Wilson

    What's yours?

    1. Ayew Serious
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Same

    2. DVassell
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Aguero-Gomis-Wilson

      (The lopsided option)

    3. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Aguero Diouf Wilson. Stoke has good fixtures and it saves money to afford heavy hitters elsewhere.

    4. Reckoner.
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Same

    5. JÆKS ⭐
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Aguero Gomis Wilson

      with money itb so I could do Gomis --> Benteke but no need for that atm

      1. Sushant
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Benteke at home against West Ham after that horrendous defensive showing against Bournemouth seems so tempting!

    6. lejund
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Aguero - Costa - Benteke

    7. Hairy Potter
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      It's what I've got, not sure if it's the best.

      1. Sushant
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Trust me with those fixtures its d best!

    8. El-Kloppico
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Aguero - Diouf - Benteke

  21. Jepps
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Romero (Mignolet)
    Shaw, Kolarov, Smalling, Clyne (Stones)
    Mahrez, Pedro, Yaya, Ritchie (Redmond)
    Agüero, Gomis (Wilson)

    Decided to play my wc for gw4

    Any thoughts?

    1. Freshy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Im thinking its time to unload MU defensive assets

      1. dykeypunk
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        As much as I don't like the "wait and see till after @#*& game" answer, I think you should wait and see till after the Swansea game

        1. Freshy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          I have greater problems to worry me
          Get in and get out MU def
          Wouldnt be Jumping on MU defense i WC

      2. dykeypunk
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Sorry thought yours was the original post

    2. The Sarjeant
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Why would you bench Wilson and play an extra defender?

      1. The Sarjeant
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        And got tripling up on United DEF/GK.

        1. Jepps
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          Smalling and Shaw have served me well first three games

          1. The Sarjeant
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 8 months ago

            That doesn't mean they will continue doing so.

        2. Ayew Serious
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          Against Swansea...

        3. Freshy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          Im a Smalling owner and I have no faith in MU CS continuing

      2. nad
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        ^^^^^^^^

    3. ZTF
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      No thoughts...

    4. nad
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      That's a very expensive back 7.

    5. TheOrangeMan
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Too many utd defs. I'd do Romero -> Myhill as we don't know de gea situation.
      Smalling -> Muniesa and Yaya -> Silva

    6. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Too much Man U defence.
      Don't like Ritchie.
      I'm not totally against a rotating front 8, but you'll have to get used to benching points.
      That's a lot of money on GKs.
      You've only got one captain option.

      I'm not a fan.

    7. joinho
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Like it although I'd go Silva over Yaya

    8. ZLATAN'S PONYTAIL
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      I'd leae Shaw in. Take Smalling out. Sub wth Clyne.
      Upgrae Yaya to Silva. Silva looked devastating against Everton.

  22. Dr Dream
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Impressed with Coutinho supplying Benteke last night despite the blank, in fact he's been impressive all season. Anybody taking the plunge ?

    1. Rafster
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      I am considering Payet > Coutinho

    2. The Sarjeant
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      I probably am. It's either Pelle > Benteke or Mané > Countino.

      Probably get Countinho. 2 extra points for a goal and clean sheet.

        1. The Sarjeant
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          I've already checked out his stats, they're great. Just he's not creating that many chances.

          1. internal error
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            8 years, 8 months ago

            Interestingly, Firmino created more than anyone that game

      1. roscola
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Also, you gave me an opportunity to wheel out this oldie:

        http://i.imgur.com/8H3a3Fg.png

        😉

    3. Ayew Serious
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Hes always impressive!

      Its points we are looking for

      1. Dr Dream
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Yeah he is...but he seems to have gone up another notch. Looks good alongside Benteke.

    4. roscola
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      I think Lucy might. I'm considering either Ayew > Coutinho or Gomis > Benteke and I think the latter shades it.

      What's very interesting is that Benteke was also feeding Coutinho, apparently more than anyone did last season:

      http://basstunedtored.com/2015/08/25/analysis-arsenal-0-liverpool-0/

      1. The Sarjeant
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        I agree, I think you should do Gomis > Benteke. What about mine with Pelle and Mané?

        1. roscola
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          That's harder, assuming they're both fit. Pelle probably has the better stats, which suggests dropping Mane.

    5. Boris Bodega
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      So tempting, if Benteke had passed instead of taking that shot last night....once they start to gel I think Liverpool will start scoring big again.

      1. Dr Dream
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Hit the woodwork as well didn't he ?

  23. Rafster
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Which combo will score more points this season? :

    A) Hazard + Ozil

    B) Sanchez + Pedro

    1. The Sarjeant
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      You won't have them for the whole season.

    2. Taffer
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      B by at least 40 points

  24. Winter_is_coming
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Sakho and Eriksen to Wilson and Pedro for a hit?

    1. Taffer
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Maybe just Wilson and monitor Eriksen's fitness? He's done well when he's played.

      1. Pegboy
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        As a Spurs ST holder, I beg to differ on the 2nd point. Eriksen has been average since about February.

      2. Winter_is_coming
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Will be very hard watching Chelsea game without Pedro, while Spurs will play like always...

    2. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Yeah. Seriously , why not.

  25. ZTF
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Mahrez surely can't rise again this week.

    1. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      why not?

    2. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      He will, 70k NTI so far today

  26. hazza44
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Any must, must haves for using your WC??

    1. Ayew Serious
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Mahrez

      1. Iceball
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        +1 he will rise and rise, he is very cheap and topscorer, everyone is getting him

  27. Ayew Serious
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    I have to go

    Fekir Wright Ings Debuchy

  28. mataave
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    GTG???

    Ruddy (Schwarzer)
    Francis Ivan Kolorov (Targett, Oxford)
    Mane Mahrez Hazard Sterling (Westwood)
    Benteke Wilson Aguero (c)

    Already used my FT to switch Mert to Kolorov. Anything worth taking a hit on?

    1. joinho
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      I'd say so, no hits needed imo

    2. mojoindojo
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Ivan to Kolarov would have been better use of FT imo.

      No hit needed for now

      1. mataave
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        It was a tough choice between the two. Although Ivanovic has been out of form, I still see much more attacking potential over Mert. I just think it's just a matter of time IMO

  29. Pariße
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    any news on Koscielny?

    1. peter j
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      What option is better ?
      A) Romero, zouma/stones (if he goes to chelsea) yoshida
      B) Courtois, shaw and target

      I Prefer B

      My team after wild card :

      Courtois mccarthy
      Shaw, Sagna, gomez, target, steven taylor
      Hazard, Yaya, shaqiri, mahrez, westwood
      Aguero, Costa, wilson
      0.2 in the bank

    2. Randy_Marsh
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      His wife was late

  30. Sid07
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Rutland
    Azpi kosc huth(francis Coates)
    Sanchz mane ayew chadli(Westwood)
    Aguero benteke wilson

    1)play wc
    2) mane to mahrez(-4)
    3)kosc to kolorov(-4)
    4) both 2 and 3 for (-8)
    5)mane + ayew/chadli to mahrez + silva(-8)