January Review and February Preview

Welcome to my regular look back at the month’s key Fantasy Premier League (FPL) players, which in January saw some impressive returns, particularly amongst strikers. I will also take a look ahead to those with the best fixtures in February, while for Members I’ve also supplied my variation on the goals and assists imminent tables to help predict some options for the forthcoming games.

January Review

Goalkeepers

This month Artur Boruc (26) from Bournemouth topped the table for the highest scoring goalkeepers. The Polish shot-stopper kept two clean sheets in addition to a penalty save against Leicester’s Riyad Mahrez. Arsenal’s Petr Cech (25) takes second place with two double-figure hauls from two clean sheets and two blanks. Kasper Schmeichel (22) of Leicester kept three clean sheets but perhaps was a little disappointing due to his lack of bonus points from these games.

A surprise contender was Mark Bunn (22), who started only three of four games last month, returning two clean sheets and a penalty save from Riyad Mahrez. Lastly, Fraser Forster (18) kept three clean sheets upon his return, adding to the solidity of Southampton recently.

Defence

Patrick van Aanholt (35) came away with a staggering four goals in back-to-back games, along with an assist, and though one was later deemed an own goal, the points still stood for owners. His advanced positioning lately for Sunderland has seen him profit as the returns suggest.

A new cheap option emerged this month in Southampton’s Matt Targett (29) at 3.7. Despite only playing three games he returned three clean sheets and a pair of assists, seeing only a 0.1 price rise since so far. From the rest of the Southampton backline, defenders Virgil van Dijk (24), Ryan Bertrand (21) and Jose Fonte (21) delivered three clean sheets but were outshone by the youngster Targett.

Leicester defenders Christian Fuchs (28), Robert Huth (27), Danny Simpson (21) and Wes Morgan (20) all delivered tidily, with the former taking free-kicks recently. Charlie Daniels (27) managed a goal and two assists along with two clean sheets for the month. Elsewhere, Arsenal’s Laurent Koscielny (25) and Joleon Lescott (25) ended up with identical scores after a goal and two clean sheets. Lastly, Chelsea duo Branislav Ivanovic (21) and Cesar Azpilicueta (20) kept two clean sheets along with some attacking returns.

Midfield

Roberto Firmino (35) was the stand-out midfielder in January with four goals and an assist. In second was Andre Ayew (28) for Swansea, who has been fielded out-of-position as a striker. Since the change, Swansea have seemed to find their goalscoring form once again with Gylfi Sigurdsson (25) also getting a nice return. Tottenham duo Christian Eriksen (27) and Dele Alli (25) continued to impress with the latter offering great value for money.  Chelsea trio Willian (23), Oscar (22) and Cesc Fabregas (21) were also in the mix. Georginio Wijnaldum (25) and Adam Johnson (20) were the best of the Geordie picks. Lastly, Michail Antonio (23), James Ward-Prowse (22), and Danny Drinkwater (22) delivered steady returns too, with the former gaining some attention ahead of West Ham’s nice fixtures in February.

Attack

Sergio Aguero (39) marked his return to form with an incredible five goals and an assist, putting him on 12 goals for the season. Wayne Rooney (35) also delivered a nice haul for those willing to invest in him with four goals. Jermaine Defoe (34) was perhaps a surprise pick with five goals followed by two blanks later in the month. Enner Valencia (33), with four goals and an assist, also put himself into consideration with West Ham’s good fixtures ahead. Diego Costa (26) also put the premium forwards back on the radar with Arsenal’s Olivier Giroud (21) in the mix, despite an early tactical sub last game due to Per Mertesacker’s red card.

Returns Imminent

My Goals Imminent table takes a look at players that have been unlucky in their goal returns lately, and tries to indicate who are getting into threatening positions for the next Gameweek. Some may be under the radar, and others may be more obvious. What this table shows is how often a player is getting shots away inside the opposition box but failing to score for various reasons.

Likewise for more creative players, I have put together an Assists Imminent table in order to gauge which players are ‘due’ in terms of assists. It is important to mention that both tables should be viewed together as simply ‘Returns Imminent’ considering a player that is getting very far forward may choose to square the ball for an assist instead of taking the shot himself. Likewise for those in the ‘Assists Imminent’ table, it is important to look at creative players with a high number of penalty area touches or shots inside the box that might score.

Chips

The following estimate is taken from a 20,000 sample conducted by FPL Discovery. As we can see, as we reach the halfway point of the season, many of us still have our chips intact. Within the top 10,000, however, the use of chips increases, indicating they may struggle to stay amongst the elite when double Gameweeks and shrewd planning come into play.

Top 10,000

Wildcard – 18.8%

Triple Captain – 43.8%

Bench Boost –     58%

All Out Attack – 57.7%

Number of chips played in the top 10,000 on average

0 – 17%

1 – 26.1%

2 – 24.9%

3 – 25.5%

4 – 6.4%

Overall

Wildcard – 8.7%

Triple Captain – 32.6%

Bench Boost – 28.2%

All Out Attack – 27.5%

February Preview

West Ham: AVL, sou, nor, SUN

With some great fixtures ahead in February, West Ham assets look worthy of investment. At the back, attacking full-back Aaron Cresswell is definitely a decent option, and should clean sheets be absent he could easily make up for it in attacking returns. In midfield, Dimitri Payet and Michail Antonio are the most likely options. The former offers set pieces and reliability, yet the latter is quite cheap with some good form. Up top, Enner Valencia is the form striker to have coming into these fixtures and could continue to deliver the goods.

West Brom: SWA, new, eve, CRY

The return of Ben Foster is sure to be a boost to the Baggies’ clean sheet chances, and with their fixtures I would expect them to keep a minimum of a pair of clean sheets over the next month. I am still not convinced by their attacking prospects so I would go with defensive duo Craig Dawson and Jonny Evans in the hope that the clean sheets are there. Both offer strong bonus point potential as well.

Tottenham: nor, WAT, mci, SWA

February’s fixtures for Tottenham look fairly good apart from their away trip to face Manchester City. Though they have been poor defensively, Danny Rose has been increasingly attacking in recent games and could get a goal or assist should defensive points be unlikely. Beware, though: he is prone to rotation. Elswhere amongst their ranks Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen are the picks among midfielders. Alli offers great value, while Eriksen has a sensational away record and set piece delivery to offer strong potential. It is likely they will be involved in many of the goals Tottenham score. It is very hard to look past Harry Kane for the final spot, especially with penalty duties in his locker.