Frisking the Fixtures – Gameweek 26 – The Strong

Our first look at the schedule over the next four-to-six Gameweeks casts an eye over those sides with favourable fixtures to follow. Stoke have a chance to arrest their recent malaise, whilst Southampton and Leicester’s fine form may well be set to continue.

Stoke

With the Potters next three opponents (bou, AVL, NEW) conceding six, seven and eight big chances respectively over the last four Gameweeks, Mark Hughes’ side look to have the fixtures to end their barren run of four matches without a goal. A clash against Southampton side with five consecutive clean sheets is far trickier, but the matches away to Chelsea and Watford, with the champions failing to clean a clean sheet in any of their last six home encounters, should offer reasonable match-ups. Watford, meanwhile, have conceded more shots (42) from inside the box than any other side over the last four Gameweeks. Marko Arnautovic (6.4) could be a decent option for our five-man midfields, with rotation concerns denting the prospects of many of Stoke’s other attacking options.

The match-up against Villa is undoubtedly the most favourable fixture in the next six from a defensive standpoint, with Remi Garde’s men fashioning just two big chances in their last four matches, only scoring three goals over that period. Saturday’s trip to Bournemouth could be tougher than it first appears though given Stoke have conceded six goals in the two matches missed by captain Ryan Shawcross, while the Cherries have scored six times over the last four Gameweeks, and racked up a credible 55 goal attempts. The clashes against Newcastle and Watford are also pretty favourable, with the Hornets scoring just twice in their last four matches and creating only five big chances. With Shawcross possibly being back for the tougher matches against Chelsea and Southampton, Potters defenders should be able to accumulate some decent defensive returns over the coming period, while Jack Butland (5.3) is probably worth sticking with by his 23% ownership in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

Southampton

Given the current form of the Saints backline, there’s no other place to start than at the back. The fact Swansea have only managed to create two big chances in their last four matches should offer encouragement that Ronald Koeman’s side could manage another shut-out this weekend. As already touched upon, Stoke have failed to score in their last four and have managed to create just one big chance, so that represents another favourable match-up, while Sunderland have registered just 15 shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks, the lowest among all 20 clubs. None of the other three matches on the upcoming schedule (CHE, bou, LIV) are really unfavourable, although clean sheets may be a little harder to come by in these fixtures, with all three teams ranked in the top 10 for shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks. The likes of Fraser Forster (4.9) and Virgil van Dijk (5.4) should continue to be backed, then, whilst Matt Targett’s owners hope he can recover from a knock in time to potentially reclaim the left wing-back berth after Koeman returned to three at the back last weekend.

Southampton’s home encounter with Sunderland look particularly appealing, given that the Black Cats have conceded 18 in their last six road trips. The matches against Stoke and Bournemouth also look pretty favourable, with the Cherries conceding three goals against West Ham and twice against Arsenal in recent home clashes. No side has conceded more big chances than Stoke (13) over the last four Gameweeks, although as mentioned, Shawcross will likely be back in action by the time the two teams meet in March. The fixture against Liverpool looks reasonable given the Reds have let in nine goals in their last four matches, with the clashes against Swansea and Chelsea looking the trickiest in the next six, with the Welsh side only conceding more than one goal in two of their last nine matches. Chelsea, meanwhile, have kept four successive clean sheets on their travels. Choosing which Southampton attacker to back is also tricky at the moment, with rotation concerns and a general lack of form harming the prospects for leading contenders Sadio Mane (7.4) and Charlie Austin (7.0).

Leicester

Norwich (11) and Newcastle (eight) rank second and third for big chances conceded over the last four Gameweeks, conceding 13 and six goals respectively over that period. Those matches look extremely favourable for both Riyad Mahrez (7.1) and Jamie Vardy (7.4), while having failed to register a clean sheet in their last seven away matches, West Brom also appear likely to concede at the King Power Stadium in Gameweek 28. The trip to Selhurst Park also looks a decent match-up with the Eagles conceding 10 goals in their last four matches, while the fact the likes of Arsenal, Man City and Tottenham have all scored at least two goals at Vicarage Road makes the Watford fixture also look fairly favourable. Only Sunday’s clash against Arsenal looks difficult in the next six then, with the Gunners conceding just once over the last four Gameweeks. Overall though, it certainly looks worth having both Mahrez and Vardy in our 15-man squads for the coming period, with the pair being potential captaincy options.

Leicester have also shone defensively of late, keeping five clean sheets in their last seven matches. Showdowns with Watford and West Brom look the most favourable in the next six, with both teams managing just 21 shots from inside the box in their last four matches, scoring just three goals between them over the same period. Norwich also represent a very favourable fixture, given they’ve failed to score in three of their last four away matches, while Crystal Palace have only scored three goals in four. The Eagles could be a different proposition in Gameweek 31, though, with Yannick Bolasie and Bakary Sako both likely to be fit. The home fixture with Newcastle is also very reasonable, though, leaving only the trip to Arsenal as a difficult clash. At 4.5 and 4.8 respectively, Robert Huth and Christian Fuchs have emerged as the best candidates for points at both ends of the pitch in recent weeks.

ALSO CONSIDER…

Chelsea
Looking at the Blues’ next six (NEW, sot, nor, STO, liv, WHM), clean sheets should be a decent possibility against Newcastle, Norwich and Stoke. The season-ending injury to Kurt Zouma is a slight cause for concern, though as regards to potential defensive returns over the coming weeks. That, along with tougher match-ups in the other three matches may perhaps put the breaks of any further investment in the premium priced Branislav Ivanovic (6.6).

From an attacking point of view, the upcoming fixture list looks slightly brighter. Only the match against Southampton looks truly unfavourable, with the fixtures against Newcastle and Norwich likely to yield goals for the champions. Diego Costa (10.6) continues to look a great differential with his ownership in FPL standing at 6%, and appears the standout option from the Chelsea attack, with some rotation concerns among the midfielders.

Bournemouth
It’s defensively where our eyes should perhaps be focussed when it comes to the Cherries over the next six Gameweeks. Only the trip to Tottenham in Gameweek 31 looks unfavourable in the next six (STO, wat, SOT, new, SWA, tot), so with the added lure of Charlie Daniels’ attacking potential, the 4.6-priced left-back should continue to attract plenty of investment.

Both the Southampton and Tottenham matches will be difficult match-ups for the Cherries attack, with Saturday’s clash against Stoke looking the most favourable in the next six. The other three matches (wat, new, SWA) are reasonable enough, but other than Benik Afobe (6.1), it’s unlikely the Bournemouth attack will demand much consideration from Fantasy managers over the coming period.

Crystal Palace
The Eagles fixtures in the short-term (WAT, wba, sun) are pretty favourable, but with goals in short supply at Selhurst Park of late, it’s unlikely many FPL bosses will be taking a punt on Emmanuel Adebayor (5.8) quite yet, particularly with three tougher matches (LIV, mun, LEI) to follow.

The goal threat of Scott Dann (5.8) has again been in evidence over the last two weeks, and with defensive points also a distinct possibility in the short-term, the centre-half remains one of the leading options for our five-man backlines.

West Ham
The Hammers face three favourable matches (nor, SUN, WAT) over the next five Gameweeks, which should be enough to see owners of Aaron Cresswell (5.6) keep the faith despite just one shutout in West Ham’s last five matches. Tough clashes against Tottenham and Everton means any further investment in the Hammers backline in probably unlikely though.

While Dimitri Payet (8.2) has blanked in his last four appearances, the
France international should be back among the attacking points soon given the upcoming schedule, with the Everton match-up also not fairly favourable. Michail Antonio (5.3) could also be worth some consideration with Slaven Bilic’s men facing a plum home match against Sunderland in Gameweek 27 when four sides face a blank. The return to fitness of Andy Carroll dents Enner Valencia’s chances of retaining the lone striker role, though.