Having warned of Eden Hazard’s concerning away stats ahead of his one-point blank away to Swansea, I now turn my party-pooping analysis to Liverpool’s upcoming run of appealing fixtures.
From Gameweek 6, Liverpool embark on such a truly ridiculous run of good fixtures that even their centre back Dejan Lovren is seeing his ownership swell:
HUL/swa/MUN/WBA/cpl/WAT/sot/SUN/bou/WHM/mid
Those eleven fixtures equate to all three promoted teams, five teams from last season’s bottom half and – crucially for this article – none of last season’s top four. Any other time this would be a Fantasy dream worthy of a triple-up, but is this, on-paper, kind run really that good for Liverpool?
The Numbers
Since Jürgen Klopp joined Liverpool in October 2015, I’ve looked at their record in the league against two sets of teams.
Subjectively, I’ve separated five teams (Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, Man United and Tottenham), who I will call ‘The Elite’, from ‘The Rest’ – these elite teams are teams I would expect to attack, or at least go toe-to-toe, with Liverpool. And this is where the statistics prove interesting reading.
I will focus on attacking statistics, as this is where we are most interested in the Reds:
Average goals scored vs The Elite: 2 per game
Average goals scored vs The Rest: 1.83 per game
Over 2.5 goals scored vs The Elite: 5 times in 11 games
Over 2.5 goals scored vs The Rest: 5 times in 24 games
Blanks vs The Elite: 2 times in 11 games (18%)
Blanks vs The Rest: 5 times in 24 games (21%)
Whilst those numbers may not be massively in favour of Liverpool vs The Elite, it is worth remembering you would expect Liverpool to do best vs The Rest – so when you consider the swing the other way, it is rather substantial.
The History
Prior to last season’s Gameweek 14, Liverpool featured in Frisking the Fixtures ahead of a similar kind run to the one they face now:
SWA/new/WBA/wat/LEI/sun/WHM
This run ended with only three victories – all by 1-0 scorelines – and defeats to Newcastle, Watford and West Ham – all without Liverpool scoring.
Conclusion
As with Eden Hazard, this is not an article to write off their prospects completely. However, it is clear that Liverpool work best when they can overwhelm a possession-based team with a high-tempo, high-energy, pressing game. Their attacking mentality works best when they are attacked.
Again, similarly to Hazard, Klopp and his team have shown great promise in this new season, albeit against the elite teams they prospered against last season. It may be that they can now use their kind run to develop a ruthless streak against weaker opposition but, considering their performance away to Burnley, where they lost 2-0, Fantasy managers should be a little cautious.
Could it be that the key see of fixtures is actually from Gameweek 23 (CHE/hul/TOT/lei/ARS/BUR/mci/EVE)? It’s a long way off, and a little tongue in cheek, but the history might suggest it is then that we will profit most from Liverpool midfielders.
7 years, 7 months agoReally good piece.
For me Firmino is enough for now.