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Members December 6

The Technical Area – Expected Goals Prevented

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Regular readers of the Technical Area articles will no doubt be familiar with expected goals (xG), a key metric introduced to the Fantasy Football Scout Members’ area this year as a means of estimating goal scoring returns on the basis of chance quality.

This week, however, we are flipping our focus to examine the top goalkeepers over this year’s campaign and to introduce, for the first time, our related keeper-specific metric: expected goals prevented (xGP).

In brief, this data tallies the quantity and quality of chances a goalkeeper is faced with, in order to calculate a baseline of their expected goals conceded. From this number, we subtract the true number of goals that have beaten each goalkeeper, in order to determine the expected goals they have personally deterred.

This week’s Technical Area will be running the rule over how FPL’s highest-owned goalkeepers have performed in this particular metric thus far.

We also take a wider view of the position as it now stands, in light of the recent uncertainty surrounding the pitch time of budget-friendly options such as Rob Elliot and Julian Speroni.

1,215 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Aasen
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    GTG ?
    Think i need 2-3 Transfers next GW as Daniels/Brady needs to go.
    Keep faith in Vardy or upgrade Brady to 3rd midfielder and downgrade Vardy?

    Courtois
    Ottamendi-Daniels-Naughton
    Richarlison-Hazard-Salah-RLC
    Morata-Kane-Vardy

    Bench Elliot, Mee,Brady,Rosinor
    1FT 0,4mil IB

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    1. La Gazzetta
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Looks good this week. Save and downgrade Vardy like you said and upgrade Brady. Should be able to get something decent in that bracket. Ramsey at least

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  2. Mackans
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    How can i do my team better?

    Hennessey
    Alonso Ward Daniels Kenny
    Hazard Salah Sterling Richarlison RLC
    Kane Morata

    Bench: Elliot Kenny Marriappa Quaner

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    1. Aasen
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Kiko in for Daniels next GW?
      Should do well with that tamplate team

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      1. Mackans
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Yes good idea, i will do that:)

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    2. La Gazzetta
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Probably by upgrading bench a little. Might be better off with Speroni over Elliot to avoid no keeper gameweeks. Also you have 2 kennys

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      1. Mackans
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Yes i have had two gameweeks in a row now without a keeper, so yes, i like your tips:)

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  3. Twisted Saltergater
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Fantastic. On eof the best stats based articles I've had the pleasure of reading on FFS.

    Goalkeepers are ripe for this kind of analysis as their playing position is not helped or hindered by the quality of their team mates; a goalkeeper is directly comparable.

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    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      *One of!

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    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      How is Gomes looking? 😉

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      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        He's in the middle group, slightly above average 😉

        He's a good pick.

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    3. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Agreed, the XG for forwards is pretty lame when you dig down in to it, but for keepers it is quite good

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      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        xG is great for strikers but if they're taking up goal scoring positions (and receiving the ball) but aren't scoring then they'll still have a high xG despite being a poor finisher.

        We have to remember that it's expected goals that a typical (average?) striker would score, from that position.

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        1. Hotdogs for Tea
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          Yes but it doesn’t take in to account actual goals scored, quality of player, quality of team, opposition, accuracy, hitting the woodwork, long shots ... basically a rubbish player that misses lots of easy shots and can’t hit a cow’s arse with a banjo will come out on top and above someone like Coutinho or Kane that tries and scores U-XG (un expected goals) - the stat needs to be weighted to make it useful in predicting goals rather than recording misses, it really should be called xM (expected miss)

          ... Well that is for the FFS xG data, but other versions on other sites are much better

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    4. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I would be curious to know if Butland conceding a shot at his near post that flies into the top corner, is measured as the same as a near post shot (from the same position) that De Gea saves with his feat. Obviously, Butland faced the more difficult shot and shouldn't be compared.

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      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        *feet... I hate typing on my phone!!

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    5. The Big Fella
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Not sure I agree 100% to be honest. Pickford had such good stats last season because his defence was shite so he was called into action a lot. de Gea or Courtois has a better defence in front of him so they're not called into action as much.

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  4. Mackans
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    How can i do my team better?

    Hennessey
    Alonso Ward Daniels
    Hazard Salah Sterling Richarlison RLC
    Kane Morata

    Bench: Elliot Kenny Marriappa Quaner

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  5. whodatgoal
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Speroni
    Alonso - Kolasinac - Christensen
    Hazard - Salah - Zaha - Groß
    Kane - Jesus - DCL

    Bench: Pope, Naughton, Dunk, RLC
    1FT

    A) Good to go, save
    B) Jesus -> Lacazette
    C) Play Naughton over DCL
    C) Play Pope over Speroni

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    1. whodatgoal
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      err *D) Play Pope over Speroni

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      1. La Gazzetta
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        I would start Pope. I'd also save rather than bring in Lacazette. Don't like Morata?

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        1. whodatgoal
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          3 Chelsea already. Jesus has City A and Lacazette has great fixtures so now's a good time if ever.

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          1. whodatgoal
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            err United A*

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          2. La Gazzetta
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Didn't see the double up at the back. I do like Arsenal at the moment and want to get someone in, I think I would rather get Ramsey than Lacazette though. I don't like that he plays 70mins max, I guess that would be a good result if that continues and he starts every game. I just sense his minutes will be reduced further but that's just a gut feeling

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        2. Davidinho
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          Thought the same but he has 3 Chelsea already

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  6. Hotdogs for Tea
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Spurs top players looking like they will rested tonight - can only help for the weekend - Kane captain locked in for a big haul 🙂

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    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      2pointer instead of 1 would be nice 😛

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      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Had a captain fail 3 weeks on the bounce now - will just leave it on Kane from now on and ignore the hype ...

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    2. Tshelby
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Kane most likely to play 90 min of the captain options this week imo but Spurs play just so awful.. Did you see the last two games? Don't really see any hauls for kane

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      1. I Member
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        This. I'm shocked by how many are willing to captain Kane given Spurs' form. Stoke defence this, Stoke defence that. So what?! He's blanked against Burnley, Swansea, Bournemouth, Palace and Watford. Spurs haven't scored more than one goal in a league game since GW9!

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    3. HashAttack
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Kane's never let me down, he's been good for 2 points on many occasions
      Jesus, Sane and Hazard have all managed to get me 1 point when captain

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  7. Fuddled FC
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Which transfers tare best?

    a) Alonso & Choupo & Vardy > Christensen & Hazard & DCL (-4)
    b) Choupo & Vardy > Coutinho & DCL

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    1. stachman
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      A

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    2. La Gazzetta
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      A because of Hazard

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    3. Prison Mike
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I'm doing B most likely but already have haz

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  8. Mackans
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    How can i do my team better?

    Hennessey
    Alonso Ward Daniels
    Hazard Salah Sterling Richarlison RLC
    Kane Morata

    Bench: Elliot Kenny Marriappa Quaner
    2 ft - 0,0mil IB

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    1. Tshelby
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      How many times will you ask this?

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    2. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Swap Quaner for DLC, get rid of Daniels to another Watford defender, or Brighton, or Palace (looking at the fixture sort on the ticker).

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    3. Reiger
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Here's your long range plan:
      Kane & RLC > Murray & Coutinho.
      A stellar midfield!
      You'll then have plenty itb for future upgrades for gk, def, bench

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  9. stachman
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Richarlison or Ramsey?

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    1. Aubaaaaa
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Ramsey

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    2. La Gazzetta
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I have Richarlison and I'm hesitant to take out for Ramsey. If I didn't own either and was buying one I would go for Ramsey

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  10. Aubaaaaa
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    A. Sanchez Firmino
    B. Hazard Laca
    C. Sane Kane

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    1. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Really not much between all 3,

      C

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  11. El Muñeco
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    TL;DR - DDG is a phenomenal goalkeeper

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    1. El Muñeco
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Whereas Joe Hart is not

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  12. Hobolicious
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Who do you think is the best striker for a maximum of 6.6m and what is your reasoning?

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    1. Yellin' in my Ear
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      DCL, hype

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      1. Hobolicious
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        See answer below.

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    2. GXNG
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      If price doesn't matter than Austin. Proven goalscorer who is on form and fixtures aren't as bad as people think (Arsenal at home is a good fixture). Form over fixtures anyways.
      Could go with DLC if you need that 0.8.

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      1. Hobolicious
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        See answer below.

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    3. Oven Glover
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      That price bracket relies on fixtures and form imo. There’s no set and forget options so switching due to fixtures and form is the way to go.

      Austin, Wilson & DCL have the best (relative) form and Wood & Gray the best fixtures.

      I’ll be looking to switch Tammy after WBA for one of the above.

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      1. Hobolicious
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Why are you swapping out Abraham if I might ask? I was looking at Wood, but I am not sure what Brady being out for a long time will mean for his points.

        As for DLC I see his potential, but I also see a lot of rotation. Wilson and Austin the same (though I wish Austin played regularly as he is a points magnet). Gray will also be rotating with Deeney I would think.

        It really is only Abraham and Wood that seem somewhat "safe" looking at their minutes in their respective teams. Murray could potentially be added as well.

        Would have been nice if West Ham picked up some form and either Andy or Chicharito nailed a spot up front.

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        1. Oven Glover
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          It looks like Bony’s return to the starting lineup could have an negative impact on Tammy (will monitor against WBA) and I have very little faith in Swansea. Might downgrade all the way down to Crouch to free up much needed funds.

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          1. Hobolicious
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            I am also considering a downgrade and going 4-4-2 (or 3-5-2). Probably DLC would come in if I go that route as I see him having the biggest potential of the cheapest attackers.

            Btw, if you are going to go as far down as Crouch you might as well go even further and get Quaner.

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            1. Oven Glover
              • 8 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              Nah, Crouch more likely to get minutes and returns between the two. Only .3 diff.

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    4. Boris Bodega
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I think it could be C Wilson, but still early days.

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    5. Andy'81
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I've gone with the budget option of Quaner (4.5), I'm not very confident on nailed on starts for the rest of the contenders in the price bracket and I don't want to be burning FT's on the third striker spot whilst we've the return from suspension of Pogba and the DGW players to potentially plan for

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  13. vinniebolton
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Who would agree??

    Keep fighting against captaining Kane, but... if i cap Haz

    Im top of my league, expect most of my league to cap Haz

    alot in my league dont even have Kane, so if he does fire its still a good diff just to have him

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    1. Drum8888
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Cap Haz and VC Kane? Then you're covered

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  14. nekatie
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    I have Fabianski and Elliot, 0.4 ITB, can sell Elliot for 4.1. What to do?

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    1. justlikehoney
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Gomes from Watford looks a good pick for the next few weeks. Or just get Swansea's back-up keeper if you are happy enough with Fabianski, that way you are always guaranteed a starting keeper.

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      1. nekatie
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Thoughts on Ryan or Begovic

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  15. TeddiPonza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Would you do Alonso and Wilson TO Morgan/Simpson and Vardy/Firmino for free?

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    1. GXNG
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      That's a downgrade tbh.

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  16. Mackans
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Captain Hazard (whu) or Kane (STK)?

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    1. okan58
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Would Kane say. Will be spared for Nicosia today and against Stoke, he will be in very good shape and the team needs his goals. He will judge it.

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      1. Mackans
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Yes true! He is fresh like you said and i think he will surprice us with a brace or hattrick now when many sells him. West Ham looked tight against Man C so yes i will captain Kane:)

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  17. Ratatouille
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Would it be madness to take a hit for Vardy> Firminho?

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    1. Mackans
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Yes i think it would be madness, because Vardy plays against Newcastle (Maybe the worst defence in the league right now)

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  18. okan58
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    0 FT
    Bank 0.5

    Foster
    Daniels - Mee - Kabasele
    Richarlision - Salah - Zaha - Sane
    Morata - Kane - Firmino
    Subs: Elliot, T. Carroll, Smalling and Rangel.

    Should I change something?

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    1. Tshelby
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Rangel -> Dunk/Zegelaar/Kenny
      Rest is fine

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    2. Yellin' in my Ear
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Yes

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    3. I Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Nah, nothing for a hit.

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    4. La Gazzetta
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I'd try spend the 0.5 on Elliot or Rangel next week

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    5. Davidinho
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Not for a hit, no. You're bench is very weak though and I'd be trying to get Hazard in the next couple of weeks

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  19. Gaffers
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    What's everyone's gut feel on the Silva injury? I think the (non) description of the injury suggests that it's a load of cobblers

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  20. EspanYOLO
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    I’m toying with the idea of a 4 5 1 formation.

    Would give me:

    Pope Ward Moreno azpi (4.0)

    Hazard, Sanchez, Coutinho, Salah, Richarlison

    Morata (diouf, 4.5)

    Would be ditching Aguero and sterling.

    I know that seems like madness but they have definitely dipped slightly in form and I feel they will be rotated loads around Christmas.

    Coutinho and hazard probably not as prone to it.

    Thoughts?

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    1. HashAttack
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      gw 12 was my last week with Kun, Kane and Morata ... now just have Morata (with Rooney and DCL as subs)

      This week is going to be the first that I am expecting to play 4-5-1, as often I might prefer my 2nd striker to my 4th defender or 5th mid - Mids this week are KDB, Salah, Hazard, Coutinho, Richarlison

      Happy with the change over but it does feel bad for a little while after selling both Kun and Kane

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  21. stat
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Thoughts on this move for a 4 pt hit?

      Azpi -> Kiko Femenia
      Surman -> Ramsey
      Abraham -> DCL

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    • FPL ZB
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      2FT

      Azpi Christensen
      Silva
      Morata

      They're the players that matter: would you switch Azpi and Silva together to get in Hazard, or just switch Silva to Rich/Ram?

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    • Salah'd n Sauce
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      GTG ?

      Courtois
      Daniels / Mee / Maguire
      GroB / Richarlison / Mahrez / Salah / Sterling
      Kane / Morata

      Elliot / Abraham / Bavies / Moreno

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      1. FPL ZB
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Lacking Hazard
        Play Moreno and Bavies over Daniels and Mee

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        1. Salah'd n Sauce
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          Hazard is in the pipeline. I'll move for him shortly.
          Moreno is a shout possibly over Mee But Daniels against Palace. I think i'll keep that one as is.

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          1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
            • 10 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Salah was in my pipeline but by the time I checked the pipe all the oil had leaked out...

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    • Sims
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      What's the word on ffs cup qualifying score,

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      1. The Wise Owl
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        55 I think

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    • Donny_Rover
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Currently with:

      Begovic - Elliot
      Otamendi - Gomez - Alonso - Ward - Naughton
      Salah - Sterling - Mane - RLC - Gross
      Kane - Morata - Wilson

      Really want to get Hazard in this week - thinking either Sane & Morata > Hazard & Vardy, or downgrade Alonso to Christensen and keep Morata.

      Thoughts? Or would I be better off improving elsewhere?

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    • Super Pav
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Thoughts on doing a -4 to change...

      RLC Salah _Sane_ Hazard _Richarlison_
      _Kane_ Morata Niasse

      to

      RLC Salah _Sterling_ Hazard _Coutinho_
      _Jesus_ Morata Niasse

      Leaves 1.4 ITB

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      1. Davidinho
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Not for me. I'd want to keep Kane

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    • EspanYOLO
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Would you do:

      Aguero + RLC —> Hazard Calvert lewin

      Calvert lewin will be my first or second bench.

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    • Smurf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Play Daniels or Loftus-Cheek?

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      1. Rik Waller
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        RLC for me

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        1. Smurf
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          Thanks.

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    • The Overthinker
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Bench looks okay?

      Elliot otamendi Francis niasse

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    • The Overthinker
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Which player/s have managed to be in your team from gw1 ?

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      1. Tatty Bojangles
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Elliot and Carroll

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      2. Smurf
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        I’ve just dumped my final one - Elliott.

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      3. Boris Bodega
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Kolasinac and Elliot

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      4. Rik Waller
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        RLC and Mee

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      5. Speédy
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Elliot,Salah and Mee

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      6. FPL ZB
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Elliot, Kane, Carroll

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      7. Gnu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Zilch.

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