The Watchlist Updated – Defenders

Following our assessment of the latest movements among the Goalkeeper standings in the first of our four-part series, we now check in on the updated Watchlist defender rankings following the busy festive period.

For those unfamiliar, the Watchlist offers mid-term player recommendations for the next four-to-six Gameweeks and beyond. They can be found in your sidebar on desktop, or via your slide-in menu on mobile or tablet.

They give an indication of our thinking on player selection for each position, listing the factors that are contributing to the given rank.

Our analysis gets underway with a look at the leading contenders in our latest defender standings.

Chelsea’s Marcos Alonso is a runaway leader in light of his superb recent form.

The wing-back has averaged a stunning 8.8 points per match in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) over his last six Gameweek starts, producing three goals, an assist, four clean sheets and six bonus points.

During that period, he has registered 15 shots, six more than any other FPL defender. Eight of those have been on target, which is more than double any other backline option.

With the upcoming schedule for Antonio Conte’s side remaining kind in the short-term (LEI bha BOU wat WBA), further investment looks assured.

Given that goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois (5.5) has only produced one save point over his last nine Gameweek starts, Alonso – who has already matched last term’s six-goal tally – is clearly justifying the extra outlay. Indeed, his tally of 123 points is now sixth overall in the FPL player standings.

Andreas Christensen suffers as a result of team-mate Alonso’s relentless form.

After missing out through illness, he returned for the 2-2 draw with Arsenal and, given his 5.6 price tag and 4% ownership, the Danish international remains a good differential option in a defence that’s conceded just six goals in 12 matches since N’Golo Kante’s return from injury.

Interestingly, Christensen averages a baseline BPS every 5.4 minutes, which is only slightly inferior to team-mate Cesar Azpilicueta (5.1), who is second among FPL defenders for bonus points with 15.

David Luiz inauspicious return to action at Norwich in Saturday’s FA Cup tie also looks to have reinforced the case for Christensen. The Brazilian was far from convincing and with a replay with the Canaries falling between Gameweeks 23 and 24, Christensen could now be assured his start in those encounters. However, the Blues do also have an EFL Cup tie with Arsenal to play this coming Wednesday.

Manchester City’s Nicolas Otamendi (6.5) continues to garner plenty of Fantasy interest.

The Argentinian has replaced the injury stricken Stephen Ward as both the most owned defender in FPL (33.5%) and the top FPL defender for points per million value, with a score of 17.5.

He picked up five bonus points over the festive period, taking his tally to 16 for the season – more than any other defender.

Despite Andre Gray’s late consolation for Watford on Tuesday night robbing Otamendi of a fourth consecutive shut-out, the Man City defence continues to be a backline we can rely on.

They do, however, travel to Liverpool in Gameweek 23, which is set to provide a stern test, while the schedule does stiffen once we enter February.

Coming in at just 5.4, though, his team-mate John Stones offers a far more budget-friendly route into a rearguard that has allowed fewer shots (139), efforts in the box (83) and attempts on target (44) than any other side.

With that in mind, we’ve recently rolled out a Technical Area article on the City pair ahead of that upcoming schedule.

Stones will be seen by many as the preferred candidate. However, it was his error that allowed Burnley’s goal in Saturday’s 4-1 FA Cup victory, perhaps indicating that he is not yet at full sharpness. For now, we’re sticking with Otamendi as a “money no object” target and will be assessing statistics – particularly the baseline BPS numbers – over the next few matches.

One of the big winners over the festive period was Manchester United’s Phil Jones, who swiftly returns to the upper reaches of our defender ladder.

The centre-back had been a star performer during the early months of the season before succumbing to a thigh injury.

He returned in Gameweek 17 for the 1-0 win over Bournemouth and has played every minute in the Premier League since, which was something of a surprise given his injury history and the congested fixture list.

Second only to Alonso for transfers in ahead of Gameweek 23 among defenders, Jones’ price has risen to 5.7 in FPL, which is slightly cheaper than team-mate David de Gea (5.9).

Despite missing five matches through injury, Jones still holds a slight edge over the goalkeeper for bonus points (13 to 10), although, given the goalkeeper’s ability to deliver save points, and Jones’ limited set-piece threat, there is little to choose between them.

With more clean sheets (12) than any other side, it should certainly be beneficial to own one of the pair, judging by their fixture list (STK bur tot HUD new) over the next five Gameweeks.

Looking at the underlying numbers, a fit-again Jones has clearly made a difference to United’s rearguard.

During the Gameweek 12-16 period of his absence, they allowed an average of 2.4 big chances and conceded an effort every 6.0 minutes. With Jones back on board, those figures have improved to 1.2 and 9.5 respectively.

Despite the Double Gameweek having come and gone, West Ham United’s Angelo Ogbonna remains in the top ranks thanks to an obliging upcoming schedule (hud BOU CRY bha WAT).

Over their respective last six matches, the Hammers have conceded only seven big chances – the third most impressive record on show.

Indeed, since Moyes was appointed, Ogbonna’s total of 103 clearances, blocks and interceptions (CBI) is ranked second among defenders, highlighting his potential for bonus points when they keep a clean sheet.

Nonetheless, with Adrian priced at just 4.3 in goal, Ogbonna may struggle to persuade investors.

Another our favoured budget options is Brighton & Hove Albion’s Shane Duffy, who climbs the ladder primarily due to a fixture shift.

Five of the Seagulls’ next six (wba CHE sot WHU stk SWA) are promising match-ups, with the next month or so looking crucial as they look to stay clear of the relegation zone ahead of a daunting run-in.

The Republic of Ireland international impressively sits second among Brighton players for penalty-area shots with 18 and has been very unfortunate not to have opened his account for the season.

Priced at 4.6, he also edges out fellow centre-back Lewis Dunk for minutes per baseline BPS (6.6 to 7), and remains the number one defender for CBI, with 234.

But it’s worth noting that Seagulls goalkeeper Mat Ryan (4.5) is cheaper and has produced 21 points more than Duffy (87 to 66) so far.

Virgil Van Dijk makes his debut in our rankings thanks to a January switch to Liverpool.

Certainly, visits from Man City and Spurs will test a defence that’s conceded just four times in 11 matches at Anfield. However, the Reds offer five favourable fixtures in the next seven (swa hud sot WHU NEW), which could increase interest in their defence.

As mentioned in our recent Moving Target article on the Dutchman, he impressed at both ends of the pitch when in the Southampton XI earlier in the season.

Over his run of starts from Gameweek 7-17, Van Dijk was the number one defender for successful headers (59) and CBI (119) and sat fifth for shots (11) and fourth for efforts in the area (10).

That aerial threat made an immediate impact on his debut for the Reds, with the Dutchman netting an FA Cup derby winner over Everton on Friday night.

Shkodran Mustafi is currently our preferred cover of the Arsenal backline, with Sead Kolasinac’s starting role now far from certain.

In just 12 starts, Mustafi – who is owned by just 3% – has returned two goals, eight clean sheets and six bonus, with an average of 4.9 points per match, more than any defensive team-mate. Furthermore, the centre-back averages a baseline BPS every 5.2 minutes, superior to any other Gunners defender.

With the short-term schedule (bou CRY swa EVE) very favourable, Mustafi can provide solid value at 5.4 in FPL.

Hector Bellerin – placed fifth for transfers in among defenders ahead of Gameweek 23 – could yet enter our thinking. However, priced at 0.6 more, we need further reassurance on the erratic Gunners defence before he challenges Mustafi.

While upcoming trips to Spurs and Arsenal dent the appeal of Jonjoe Kenny (4.6), Everton – like Liverpool – have a batch of kind-looking matches to keep him in contention.

Once next weekend’s trip to Wembley has passed, Sam Allardyce’s side have four favourable home matches (WBA LEI CRY BHA) allied with trips to Watford, Burnley and Stoke in the subsequent eight.

After being rested for the Gameweek 22 clash with Man United, he’s been sold by over 23,000 owners.

But the Merseysiders’ recent record bodes well for the young right-back – since Allardyce’s arrival, Everton are joint-top for clean sheets (four) and have conceded just 10 big chances – the third best record from Gameweek 15 onwards. With Seamus Coleman still reportedly “some way off” a return to contention, Kenny looks set to remain a viable budget option – at least until next month.

With two clean sheets from their last four matches at the King Power Stadium and a kind run of home opponents (WAT SWA STK BOU) over the next seven Gameweeks, Leicester City’s Harry Maguire (5.4) is still a factor.

The England international can always be relied upon to offer an attacking threat and has registered an impressive two goals and four assists.

Once the Gameweek 23 trip to Chelsea has passed, Maguire’s potential to deliver points at both ends of the pitch makes him a very enticing option and will elevate the Foxes’ summer signing in our Watchlist rankings. However, the budget-friendly Ben Chilwell could offer an alternative at just 4.3. The youngster started six of seven league matches before missing Gameweeks 21 and 22 due to illness and returned to action in Saturday’s FA Cup tie.