Welcome to this regular article aiming to answer the question: can bookies’ odds be used as an effective tool for Fantasy managers? Each week I take a look at how the latest bookies’ odds can be used to help influence our captaincy and transfer decisions. This is then followed up in a separate article with a look back to see how these bookie-based predictions performed. Here are my predictions for Gameweek 4’s matches based on what the bookies say:
The Matches
Newcastle United (5/1) vs Arsenal (1/2)
Neither club has had the best of starts with both teams only scoring two in three games. No Arsenal player has more than 15 FPL points, a surprising statistic given the talent in their team. No Newcastle player has scored more than 13 points thus far – I wouldn’t personally captain any assets in this game.
Prediction: 0-1/0-2
Man City (1/5) vs Watford (11/1)
Man City’s fixtures: WAT, cpl, WHM, tot, NEW, BOU. Think that says it all quite frankly. Tripling up on your City assets seems a wise decision. Sergio Aguero is the overwhelming captain favourite this week and understandably so. Aleksander Kolarov rewarded his owners last week and could be in line to do the same this weekend. Watford have been defensively sound this season so it would be no surprise if it were closer than people thought.
Prediction: 2-0
Liverpool (1/3) vs West Ham (8/1)
Three games, two goals, zero conceded is an impressive record so far for Liverpool as they face West Ham who conceded four last weekend. Liverpool look good at the back, with any of the back four potentially a canny buy right now. Could this also be the Gameweek where Christian Benteke delivers strong returns for his 40% of FPL managers? I feel this is his week from a personal point of view. The 5.5-priced Kouyate could be one for the Watchlist from Gameweek 7 onwards.
Prediction: 2-0
Bournemouth (23/20) vs Leicester (23/10)
Bournemouth’s first win in the Premier League came against an awful West Ham defensive display; is it a one off? Well, Bournemouth now go on a run of fixtures (LEI, nor, SUN, sto, WAT) where we’re going to find out. Hat-trick hero Wilson makes a great third striker, with penalties seemingly in his locker. Leicester have their own star man though in Riyad Mahrez (FPL Gameweek totals so far: 15,10,10). If the predicted open, high-scoring game transpires, either could be a great captain differential this week.
Prediction: 2-3
Stoke (19/20) vs West Brom (16/5)
Both teams haven’t registered a win this season but both have looked good going forward. I really think the team who wants it more will take the three points. Xherdan Shaqiri had a solid debut with an assist to boot – could he be the catalyst to propel Stoke forward?
Prediction: 1-1
Aston Villa (5/6) vs Sunderland (7/2)
Sunderland picked up a good point against Swansea last time out but defensive errors are evident for both teams right now. Jeremain Lens is vital to Sunderland’s attack right now – with three assists in three he’s the star man for Sunderland. As for Aston Villa, Ashley Westwood makes a great fifth midfielder right now; both he and defender Micah Richards are good Villa options this week I feel.
Prediction: Villa win 2-0/2-1
Chelsea (1/3) vs Crystal Palace (8/1)
Chelsea have gone from a rock-solid defence to one of the worst in the league right now but many expect that to return at some point. Pedro seems to have revitalised Chelsea, showing a lot of positivity and creativity; he could be the spark that Chelsea need. As for Palace, they’ve relied on defenders and the likes of Bakary Sako to get the goals for them so far.
Prediction: 2-1
Tottenham (10/11) vs Everton (3/1)
Neither of these teams really have the advantage over the other right now and I’m surprised Tottenham are odds-on to win. Personally, I would avoid both defences here and look to the attacking options for Spurs. Harry Kane doesn’t seem good value for 9.5 but perhaps Nacir Chadli at 7.0 is your best bet for Fantasy returns in this encounter. As for Everton, Romelu Lukaku looks a different beast this season, with 20 points so far, and he could be in for a good game here.
Prediction: 1-1
Southampton (10/11) vs Norwich (3/1)
Southamption haven’t had a great start to the season whereas Norwich will be happy with theirs. The Canaries will be the fresher team going into this tie, with Southampton playing a Europa League qualifier midweek. Nathan Redmond is Norwich’s star man, already with two goals and an assist, and he will be key for Norwich in this game in their quest for goals. Wes Hoolahan has penalties in his locker and along with Robbie Brady looks a good bet for assist points should Redmond dazzle in front of goal.
Prediction: I just have a feeling that Norwich will win this game 2-1.
Swansea (11/5) vs Manchester United (5/4)
Both teams sit in the top six right now and Manchester United have yet to concede. I think Swansea’s Bafetimbi Gomis will change that record this weekend. His midfield is giving him great service, with Jefferson Montero in particular stretching the play, allowing more room in the middle. The key battle will be between Montero and Manchester United’s right back Matteo Darmian, who will have his first proper test so far in the Premier League up against the tricky Eduadorian winger.
Prediction 1-1
Clean sheet odds
Chelsea 10/11
Liverpool 10/11
Man City 10/11
Aston Villa 5/4
Stoke 13/10
Arsenal 13/10
Southampton 6/4
Man Utd 13/8
Tottenham 9/5
Bournemouth 2/1
Swansea 5/2
West Brom 3/1
Leicester 10/3
Norwich 10/3
Everton 7/2
Sunderland 16/5
Newcastle 5/1
Crystal Palace 15/2
West Ham 15/2
Watford 14/1
Captaincy
Anytime Goalscorer odds – these are listed according to the Top 10 picks on Fantasy Football Scout’s Captain Poll
1. Aguero 4/11
2. Pedro 11/10
3. Sanchez 7/5
4. Mahrez 3/1
5. Silva 6/4
6. Hazard 13/10
7. Yaya 5/4
8. Costa 5/6
9. Wilson 7/5
10. Benteke 4/6
Who should you captain in Gameweek 4?
- Sergio Aguero (WAT) – City are on form –three wins out of three – Aguero has looked lively in every game so far, with Howard and Begovic having outstanding games to deny a plethora of goals. Can Gomes do the same? I’m not so sure, he’s the number 1 choice this week
- Christian Benteke (WHU) – West Ham conceded four at the weekend and I see no reason why Liverpool can’t put a few goals past the Hammers this weekend, if they do, Benteke is likely to be in the goals.
- Riyad Mahrez (bou) – If you’re feeling in a punty mood or just don’t like the look of Aguero against a defensively solid Watford, why not look towards Mahrez, in the form of his life, playing a side who like to be aggressive and attacking, leaving lots of space in behind? If there are goals in this game, he’s likely to be involved.
That’s all from me, hope this helps in any way and feedback is welcome and encouraged. Good luck.
8 years, 8 months agoLook pretty sound predictions to me.
Starting to feel a bit better about Aguero (c).