Fixture Analysis – Rotation Pairs – Crystal Palace and Hull

Very long post warning 😯

Yesterday I asked for advice of what should be included in a building your squad guide for my ML, so here is the first attempt. Feel free to ignore, rip apart, laugh at etc

Cheers 🙂

You may feel that 100mil is not enough and you can’t possibly get a side together that you’re happy with? Sound familiar, well this guide will show you one view on how to create your squad for a successful campaign within your ML. Rotations and Balance are two words to get use to. They allow you to get a side together and more importantly, keep a side together without you suffering from premature Wild Carding and serial point hitting that hack away at your squad and your ML position.

Balance of a side

Generally the ideal split is the following,
GK: 9 – 10.5
Def: 23.5-27.5
Mid: 35 – 39
FWD: 26.5 – 30

The sweet spot in these ranges is up to your preference but stay within these ranges and your team will be balanced and able to react to whatever happens in a season. You have to make sure that while staying in budget you have enough big hitters to not miss out on Bale or RVP blowing up a seemingly sedate GW. Aim for 3 to 4 big hitting attacking players. Next thing to remember is you have to bench 4 players every week. There is no point spending/wasting too much money on the bench. You do this by picking bargain buckets within your squad; someone valued 4mil at the back or 5.5 or less in midfield or up front. To better illustrate this I’ll go into more detail;

*Insert examples of balanced and unbalanced squads and reasons for*

Rotations

You now know that balance is key to maximising your budget and points, you may be asking how do you do this. It’s called rotations. Rotations tend to happen at the back and there are two common rotation patterns. 2+3 where you have two big hitters playing and three players rotating every week to make up the third spot. The other option is 1+2+2 where you have one big hitter and two pairs of rotations filling the other two spots. Before you ask 3-4-3 is the best formation!! It allows you to get the most dangerous players on the pitch at any one time. Also the BAPS are steered towards attacking players. General rule is when rotating players at the back they should not cost more than 5 mil each. Anymore they should be able to stand by themselves. Rotations work by finding combinations of clubs that give you the easiest possible opposition route through the GWs. These are often home games. Lucky enough for us the Premier league pairs up clubs that rotate home and away for every game week so they are pretty easy to find, especially if you have a Season Ticker or a Rotation Finder. Three club rotation allows you to look more into the fixture list to find clubs that are potentially better at home that don’t necessary rotate and pair three up to give you a sequence of home games. The other advantage of a three team rotation is that when adopting 1+2+2 the two clubs play the big 6 at home at some point and you have very little option but to play that player in that game week while in a three team rotation you can be more fussy and remove as many of these danger fixtures as possible. The advantage to 1+2+2 is your decision is easier every week and you’re less likely to pick the wrong fixture and leave points on your bench. It also comes out cheaper allowing you to spend more of your budget on attacking players. It is also a preferred option if you don't mind playing rotating defenders away from home. Preference for either system is up to your management style.

Player Selection

Two standard rules when picking players

• Club loyalties cannot effect who you pick. For example, if you support Arsenal, you must allow yourself to pick Spurs players otherwise you cannot win the league. You need all weapons available to you in the game.
• The player must be nailed on at their club. Goes without saying really. You can’t make plans for the player to only be benched. Your rotations must be done with nailed on players otherwise they simply don’t rotate as a blank fixture is the worst thing you can get in a rotation.

The other consideration you have to take into account is coverage. This can either be coverage of the top clubs when they have favourable fixtures, coverage of a club you perceived will be popular for example, the Stoke defence and finally coverage of players who you think will be popular within your ML. This is hard to do upfront when building your squad but is definitely something to consider early on in the season when making your initial transfers.

Value

Once the givens are givens, the number one thing you must consider is value. Value per mil against your perceived points that person will get. Is there room for growth or is the player overpriced? Sounds simple logic but trust me, people are drawn to names and not necessary what is it right for your team. Just look at the % selected by figure on the website and you will see firstly, it’s the names from last year and secondly, players who aren’t even going to play but got the most points last season for the price tag they have. Players who were injured last year lowering their price this year could be an example of value or players who had their first season in the league last year and are expected to push on now they have experienced what the premier league is all about.

Next thing to consider is value within the same club. This applies more to your back line but can apply all over. It applies more to them because of the point scoring system. Everyone get 4 for the clean sheet. With this in mind there is no point paying 6 mil for a player when there is a team mate for 5 mil. There is an example of this at every club. When doing this remember the two standard rules.

First stages squad building

Presuming you have worked out your value players, have your rotations armed and ready to serve you proud, you can start to flesh out your squad. So this will be your goalkeepers, 3 or 4 defenders depending on your rotation tactic used and your 2 attacking players that are rotating. Note this covers around half of your entire squad. The reason why you put these people in first is because you should never have to make a transfer to replace them and therefore it shows you your budget to fill in the other spots remembering to stay within the balance squad boundaries. BTW, when coming up with rotations, have in mind when you are going to Wild Card. There is no point letting fixtures that are after this point effect your decision on the rotation.

Hot and Cold prices

Next thing to note is what I call hot prices. These are prices where there is a gathering of players you might not want from GW1 but will at some point. For a smooth ride through the season if you have identified a hot price, pick a player from that price in your initial squad will mean it will only ever take 1 transfer to bring one of those other players in. Big hitters often fall in to hot prices. There are also Cold prices, prices where you only like 1 player at that price. You have to be careful with these prices as it will take two transfers to bring in your next player. The other option to try and negate these hot and cold prices is to reserve 0.5 to 1 mil in the bank for flexibility. Have this theory in mind when picking your fixture man or punt player.

Fixtures Vs Form

For me it’s simple a good run of fixtures will create form and therefore you will be on the form player before anyone else. There are always exceptions to the rules but take this approach and you will create the bandwagons instead of jumping on them. This approach will also mean that you cash in on player prices going up increasing your budget quickly. One thing to say on this is don’t be stubborn. Not everyone gets their decisions right every time. When making these decisions know how long you plan to keep this player, this way if your player had a 2 point in GW1 and someone got 10 but you know you are going to keep him for a further 8 GWs, there is no reason to jump ship just yet. How do you know you’re going to keep this player, because you looked at the fixtures?

OOP and POO Players

OOP or out of position players can make a mockery of the points system. Just look at Michu last year or even Luiz. These are players where the people at FPL towers have misclassified a player’s position. You can argue that these players are almost a must have within your squad and could negate the need for a fixture man or even a punt player. However, no matter how much you like the player if he is POO (reverse OOP); don’t touch him even with a very long stick. They don’t get value for their output and there will always be a better option than them for your place in the squad. Mirallas and Coleman of Everton were examples of this last year.

Big Hitters

Once you have your rotations installed and hot prices made aware of it’s time to pick your big hitters. This is where your captain is going to come from so while picking who you think are going to be this year Mr reliable (Season Keepers) for your squad also remember that they have to rotate to a degree for favourable fixtures allowing you to maximize your points total on your captain. This normally works itself out if you have 1 to 2 big hitters who are your Mr reliable and two you’re planning around fixtures. Also pick your big hitters at the back at this point. Big hitters at the back tend to also contribute to the attacking phases of their clubs. Baines year in, year out has stats comparable to a winger and this alone has meant he has finished the top scoring defender for the past three seasons. Captains are crucial for ML movement and you should aim for 25% of your total points to come from your captain. I say this because of the following presumptions. 1. You have 12 players playing each week, captain doubles so in theory plays twice so this equals 2/12 of your points for any given GW or in percentage form 16.66666% if everything was equal. 2. You have complete choice of your captain and therefore your ability to change from GW to GW should contribute to the overall percentage making it 25% and not the 16.66666%.

Finishing off

Right now you probably have a squad that is 13/14 full?? Time to pick a player from the mid table sides whose got the best fixtures out there. This is also the time when you can take a punt on someone you’re not sure about but could pay off big. You can do this because you know your squad of 15 can cope with this one hopeful player. This is also the time when you will find out if you have stayed within the constraints of being balanced. Too much on one area won’t allow you to have these fixture/punt players. Michu last year was a perfect punt as he was unknown to these shores. He also had the fixtures and turned out to be OOP.

If you follow this, in theory with your 7 to 8 rotation players and your 1 to 2 Mr reliable you will only ever need to make transfers on 5 to 7 players allowing you to plan when to get the next big hitter to cover the best players, have the best captain choices and still have the GW transfers to take your player punts and find that fixture man throughout the season ahead.

Tracking your performance

To win the ML, you need to average 60 points or there about, however this average ramps up throughout the season as teams become more predictable to pick as Mr Reliable and punt players raise their hands. A general theory is average 55 till January and 65 afterwards will put you in the frame. Track this as it’s measurement as no one else can affect these figures and these figures are a good gauge to how well you are doing without looking at your ML position.

Point hits are a quick way to suicide especially for defenders and keepers. Think about it, a clean sheet is worth 4 points while a point hit is worth 4 points so what are you expecting? A player off the bench will likely get you the same score. Transfers are priceless. Don’t waste them. With this in mind don’t make any until the GW is finished and any midweek fixtures (UCL or internationals) have passed. Preferably, save a transfer allowing you a lot more flexibility that 2 transfers bring you in a single GW. You should not make more transfers than GWs throughout the season, 38. Considering you get two Wildcards, this figure could and should be 36 but 38 allows for unfortunate injuries, suspensions etc. Keep an eye out on this number. You can get away with 40 to 45 but your Overall rank will be affected.

Your overall rank should have a gradual rise throughout the GWs. There is no point in peaking to early. To win the ML, it will need to be around the 10K mark or better so if you’re top of the ML in December with an overall rank of 100K, the hard work hasn’t even started yet. That being said, if you hit gold from your initial squad and find yourself at the lofty end of the overall game, hats off to you. 10K or better and you’re in the frame and that’s your measurement.

Your team value should increase throughout the season. This is an indication that your transfer activity and original squad selection has been correct. It is also very important for your Jan Wildcard as it allows you to maybe forgo your punt/fixture player and replace him with another big hitter. Depending how much value you have obtain, you may be able to get three big hitters at the back negating the need for a rotation. This is a useful tactic as top clubs keep more clean sheets in the second half of the season as they do in the first. Don’t know why, but they do.

Having the same side as someone else is no bad thing. You only need to be different by 1 player. Don’t think you’re the special one by not conforming to the general thinking of a player value to your squad as it is often correct. Just remember a two point gain every week on the opposition will equate to a 78 point difference by the end of the season or in other words a drubbing by all accounts.

Make a note of your gap to the top of the ML and fifth place or if top, the gap to second and fifth place and track yourself from these scores every GW. You may have a good GW but drop in the ML possibly making you feel like you haven’t and pile the pressure on yourself into making rash decisions when you didn’t have to. This method of targeting the top and having a check point of fifth should give you a yardstick to aim for and give you assurances that what you are doing is working.

Information is king, try and track your rotations ppg, your captain performance, average points score, be on the pulse of real transfer activity, know who is on a suspension tightrope, know the fixture list and know who is on set pieces etc. More information will lead to better decision making.

Double GWs are bound to occur throughout the season. Spot them and plan for them. A DGW is the exception to the point hit rule, however, it will only work if your squad can function post the DGW. Don’t kill your squad. DGWs should be seen as moving day to use a golfing term. There are always DGWs for later stages of the FA cup. If your squad can cope till the Jan WC, then having that second WC in your back pocket for one of these weekends can setup you up for that final end of season rallies or catapult you away from the rest.