The Technical Area – Analysing Downing’s Display vs QPR

The fall-out from Aaron Ramsey’s hamstring injury absence persuaded over 50,000 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers to snap up Stewart Downing after a change of position looked to have transformed the former Liverpool man.

Handed a role at the tip of West Ham’s midfield diamond in the previous three matches, Downing had served up a pair of assists ahead of a home clash with QPR but the continued absence of Mark Noble and Cheikhou Kouyate saw Sam Allardyce shift him into central midfield, with Mauro Zarate tucking in behind front two Enner Valencia and Diafra Sakho.

In this week’s Technical Area, we compare the resurgent Downing’s weekend display with his previous three outings and also assess Zarate’s performance in a 2-0 win which took the home side to seventh in the Premier League.

As illustrated by the average position map from Saturday’s match (above left), Downing (number 11) was on a par with Morgan Amalfitano (number 21) on the opposite side of the diamond, whilst the Hammers’ raiding left-back Aaron Cresswell (number 3) saw plenty of possession down the flank.

When compared to the previous trio of fixtures (above right), though, Downing clearly saw far less of the ball in attacking areas. Although his touches rose from an average of 66.7 to 80 and his passes received also stepped up (from 43.3 to 46), he mustered just 16 touches in the final third, significantly down from 29.7 over Gameweek 4-6, while his passes received in this area also dropped from 15.3 to nine.

In terms of involvement, Zarate’s stats in the same role fare poorly when assessed alongside Downing’s in the previous Gameweeks. Although the Argentine’s minutes per touch were identical (1.4), he received a pass every 3.6 minutes – far slower than Downing’s 2.2 when playing in “the hole”. Indeed, Downing’s average of two minutes per pass received at the weekend was the quickest of any West Ham starter, showing just how often his team-mates are now seeking him out, in spite of a change in role.

When it came to distribution, Downing still led the way for the Hammers last weekend. The 5.6-priced midfielder was top for successful passes overall (48), in the opponents’ half (22) and in the final third (nine), whilst Zarate managed just 17 successful passes, with six in the final third, over his 76 minutes, with a 77.6% accuracy. Again, when you compare that to Downing in the same position – 38.7 successful passes, 12.3 in the final third, 85.3% accuracy – it strengthens the latter’s chances of moving back to a more advanced role.

Although Downing still picked up an FPL assist last weekend, his creativity was definitely curtailed. The Hammers playmaker managed just a couple of key passes against the R’s – mirroring Zarate’s output – though this was down on his impressive average of 4.7 over Gameweek 4-6. Nonetheless, his total of 22 chances created is joint-top for the season along with Cesc Fabregas, with an average of 30 minutes per key pass – quicker than the likes of David Silva (32.1) and Gylfi Sigurdsson (35.7) – showing that his rise to Fantasy prominence is no fluke.

In terms of goal threat, though, whilst Diafra Sakho and Enner Valencia led the way for touches in the box (seven apiece) and James Tomkins registered four, Downing produced just one and failed to fire a single attempt. Whilst he had registered 1.7 shots per appearance in the previous three, it’s intriguing to see he only averaged one touch in the box per match during that period – indeed, only two of his 12 attempts this season have been from inside the box. If you’re buying Downing for his points potential, don’t expect to see him in and around the box too often.

Zarate mustered two touches in the area in the 2-0 triumph and produced a couple of attempts, both from range and were both blocked – his lacklustre contribution hardly bodes well for his chances of retaining a starting berth when the injuries clear.

With some kind fixtures still to follow, Downing’s increasing band of owners will be a little concerned by the weekend change of position. As we mentioned in this morning’s Scribbles, though, Kouyate is edging towards a potential return for the Gameweek 8 trip to Burnley and Zarate’s minimal impact behind the front two suggests he’s the man most likely to make way, allowing Downing to move further up the field once again and back onto our Fantasy radars.

*The Technical Area is put together using the statistics and maps available in our members area. For access to such data and tools on every player, team and match of the 2014/15 season, and for exclusive members articles like this, click here for details.