The objective of this exercise is to look at recent form to help predict the attacking potential of each team over the next six Gameweeks. This aims to build on research already carried out by Footballoholic in his article “Best chance of goals over the next six” which looked at the goals conceded by each team’s next six opponents.
Firstly, I’ll take a look at teams and players’ performances over the last six Gameweeks in terms of what would have been expected of them and what they actually achieved. This will give us a list of under performing, over performing and consistent teams and players.
These calculations are based on the average goals scored (GS) home and away in the past six matches, as well as the average goals conceded. I’ll then use this to predict performance over the next six Gameweeks and highlight key players to consider. Please note all decimal points in the tables are written in the European style as a comma.
Teams – Last Six Gameweeks
Players – Last Six Gameweeks
The expected attacking points calculation for each player is based on their involvement in goals scored over the past six Gameweeks, applied to the expected goals scored by the team over that period.
Team’s Attacking Potential – Next Six Gameweeks
The following uses form over the last six Gameweeks to predict expected points and goals over the next six Gameweeks.
Players’ Attacking Potential – Next Six Gameweeks
Here are the top 20 players in terms of predicted attacking potential over the next six Gameweeks (please click on the image and use your server’s enlarge function to get a clearer image and see more details).
Conclusions
This research suggests teams are fairly consistent in their attacking behaviour (with 15 teams delivering as expected in the past six Gameweeks.
On the basis of opposition and attacking form, Alexis Sanchez and Sergio Aguero are still set to be involved in more than a goal a game over the next six. Newcastle, Southampton and Manchester City look the best bets for goals over the coming weeks, despite Southampton and Newcastle’s poor short-term fixtures. Aguero looks the safest option for the armband among players from these three sides.
Based on this analysis key advice is to:
- Keep or invest in consistent players from consistent teams such as: Cesc Fabregas, Nacer Chadli, Diafra Sakho, Angel Di Maria
- Keep your big impact players who can deliver as expected: Alexis Sanchez, Sergio Aguero
- Tread carefully with overperforming players such as Christian Eriksen and Wilfried Bony.
- Add a Newcastle forward to your watchlist. Their strong attacking form has the ability to confound their tricky fixture schedule.
- Keep an eye on underperforming players over the last six games with good fixtures, such as Diego Costa and Steven Gerrard.
9 years, 5 months ago
This is superb stuff. Please do click on the last table related to player potential to see it more clearly. Some really great information there.
Thanks Gillesdegoult for submitting.