Breaking the Template – Part Two

We roll out the second part of our series today, having looked at the overall state of play in yesterday’s opening piece.

First of all, we’d like to elaborate a little further on yesterday’s article as judging by a few of the comments, our intentions seem to have been somewhat clouded.

In Part One, we looked at the top 10 managers in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game so far and, taking the most popular players from their teams, analysed what has rapidly become the template for Fantasy success in the opening seven Gameweeks.

We then looked at the transfer trends across the board over the last few days to show that hundreds of thousands of Fantasy managers are drafting in these same template players. Obviously, they have become template for a reason (they have returned points) but, put simply, our argument was that if we continue to draft in the same small group of players that those above us already have, we are lessening the chances of gaining ground.

Those who already have the template are obviously not going to change overnight (due to its success) so it’s left to those managers doing the chasing to assess when and how to look for alternative options – as the new world number one showed last week, his decision to draft in Southampton skipper Adam Lallana made all the difference.

In order to clarify, and support the theory that this template seems to be in place regardless of a team’s overall standings, we’ve taken a random sample of 20 active FPL managers listed below (rank in brackets):

Team 1 (886,000), Team 2 (2,699,000), Team 3 (1,276,000) Team 4 (864,000), Team 5 (550,000), Team 6 (621,000), Team 7 (133,000), Team 8 (1,287,000), Team 9 (745,000), Team 10 (769,000), Team 11 (2,169,000), Team 12 (132,000), Team 13 (1,590,000), Team 14 (1,400,000), Team 15 (406,000), Team 16 (1,227,000), Team 17 (558,000), Team 18 (2,592,000), Team 19 (2,048,000), and Team 20 (1, 395,000).

Analysing the 15-man squads of the above sides, the following 3-4-3 formation is brought about by listing the most popular players per position.

GK: Simon Mignolet (14 teams)
DEF: Pablo Zabaleta (15), Seamus Coleman (11), Branislav Ivanovic/Leighton Baines/Jose Fonte (8 apiece)
MID: Aaron Ramsey (17), Yaya Toure, Ross Barkley and Hatem Ben Arfa (10 apiece)
FOR: Olivier Giroud (15), Daniel Sturridge (14), Romelu Lukaku (6)

Comparing that to the 3-4-3 template amongst the top 10 is revealing:

GK: Boruc/Mignolet
DEF: Terry/Ivanovic, Fonte, Baines
MID: Ramsey, Toure, Barkley, Michu
FWD: Sturridge, Giroud, Lukaku

Only three players in the top 10 template covered in part one are not highlighted in the template squad put together from our random sample of teams – Artur Boruc, John Terry and Michu.

This provides further evidence to suggest that, right through the player classifications and regardless of overall rank, FPL squads have become, and are still becoming, increasingly similar. In seasons gone by we have seen template midfields or identical frontlines, however, so far this season, the template seems to even more riged and, to some extent, is covering all four positions.

Obviously, as time unfolds and others start scoring, the situation – and, therefore, our transfer targets – will change; that only stands to reason. The current lull in domestic matters affords us the chance to assess the lay of the land so far and look at ways to pre-empt this, in the hope of stealing a march on our opponents. Here’s some of the scenarios and strategies to consider:

City’s Goal Potential

Top scorers in the league with 17 strikes, Manuel Pellegrini’s side have notched at least seven times more than all but two sides thus far. An unexpected goalless draw against Stoke in Gameweek 4 is the only stain on a record which has seen City score at least two goals in every match – while Yaya Toure’s 36% owners may be reluctant to double up, those without the Ivorian could look to fit-again duo Sergio Aguero or David Silva as a route into Pellegrini’s side.

Back after a hamstring injury, Silva – who is now cheaper than Toure at 9.3 to 9.4 – has scored or assisted in three of his four appearances this season and seems to have struck a greater consistency under the new man in charge. Aguero has started every match he has been fully-fit for (he was benched at Stoke as a precaution) and sits third in the FPL forward standings in 40 points – indeed, with 39 points from five starts, the 9.95 owned Argentine has registered just under eight points per appearance in the first XI. Alvaro Negredo has also remained under the radar. He’s started each of the last four league games and sits fifth amongst forwards, yet has an ownership less than 5%. Even at the back, City offer real differential appeal – Aleksandar Kolarov, so often a source of Fantasy frustration, currently sits in just 1% of teams (compared to Pablo Zabaleta’s 32%) but has now started each of the last five Gameweeks.

Swansea’s Fixture List

The fixtures suggest Michael Laudrup’s side could be set for a prosperous next few Gameweeks. Over the next five matches, the Welsh outfit entertain Sunderland, West Ham and Stoke and also pay visit to Cardiff and Fulham – every one of these matches offer the potential of Fantasy points at both ends of the park. While Michu is the obvious candidate here, the Spaniard – with 17% ownership – is far and away the most popular option amongst Laudrup’s charges, leaving the rest mainly overlooked.

With Ashley Williams currently a major doubt with an ongoing ankle complaint, Chico offers a secure route into the Swansea backline – at 5.0 in FPL, he sits in just 1% of sides right now and, as our BPS members piece highlighted, could be set to benefit if the Swans bring home clean sheets. If Pablo Hernandez can recover from a hamstring complaint, he’s another worth considering – priced at just 5.9 now, he racked up 20 points in three appearances before limping into the treatment room; earlier today, the Spaniard revealed he could be back in contention for next weekend’s game against Sunderland.

Finally, Wilfried Bony could be a real option for our three-man frontlines if he can persuade Laudrup he is ready to become a regular. The Swans boss still reckons the Ivorian needs more time to adapt but such a run of fixtures look tailor-made for the summer signing to finally make a real impact – at just 7.5 now, with an ownership under 5%, Bony could be worth a shout for those looking to shake up the Sturridge-Giroud-Lukaku template front three.

Chelsea’s Goalscoring Defenders

Jose Mourinho’s side are about to embark on a run which sees them square up to eight of the current bottom 10 in the next 11 Gameweeks. The goal threat of John Terry, Branislav Ivanovic and David Luiz could well come to the fore and may well prove the most reliable source of points, given Mourinho’s tinkering further up the field.

Certainly, Terry and Ivanovic have been mainstays under Mourinho thus far but Luiz has finally edged Gary Cahill onto the bench after recovering from a hamstring injury. The Brazilian has, by far, the lowest ownership of the three – he currently sits in 8% of FPL teams, compared to Ivanovic’s 29% and Terry’s 12%, and is also the cheapest of the trio at 6.1. Nonetheless, Luiz is still prone to the occasional first XI omission and has skipped one of the last four Gameweeks.

A couple of his compatriots are also likely to come under consideration – while Oscar (8.8, 14% owned) has proved the best route into the Blues attacking midfield trio, Ramires is very much an under the radar option. As highlighted in a recent KPI article, the 6.4 priced midfielder – with a 4% ownership) has very strong underlying stats which hint at potential future returns and, having started all Chelsea’s league games so far, seems far less liable to rest and rotation than many of his more expensive team-mates. Juan Mata is now down to 9.6 and is owned by less than 5% – if he can retain his starting berth, the Spaniard could be an ideal option, though Mourinho’s selection policy has shown this comes with a degree of risk attached.

Monitor the Treatment Rooms

Over the next few weeks, we should start to see the return from injury of a handful of players that have the potential to shake up the pecking order right across the categories. Arguably the two most explosive are Christian Benteke and Theo Walcott, with the Belgian already making a real impact with four goals in his first four appearances before limping off in Gameweek 5 away to Norwich. Benteke is now priced at 8.8 and is down to 12% ownership after being sold by over 876,00 managers – his imminent return is sure to persuaded plenty to come calling, whilst Walcott sits at 9.2, with less than 5% of managers currently holding the Arsenal winger.

Elsewhere in the Arsenal midfield, Santi Cazorla will also offer an alternative to Mesut Ozil and Aaron Ramsey, while over at Anfield, Philippe Coutinho and Glen Johnson are edging their way towards a return – the latter, down to 5.8, is owned by less than 5% of FPL managers. Hull’s Robbie Brady has been sold on by over 42,000 after his hernia operation – the midfielder is now down to 8% ownership and, if he’s ruled out for another week or two, could drop further from his current price of 5.2.

Look for Out of Position Switches

At the start of the season, Roberto Martinez’ arrival at Everton brought plenty attention Kevin Mirallas’ way. A move to the Toffees front three looked potentially prosperous but, while the Belgian has yet to find the net, he’s offered plenty goal threat which should reap reward and has fired 10 shots from inside the area. Now down to 7.2, and owned by less than 3% of FPL managers, Mirallas is a prime example of an out of position contender worth monitoring. Hatem Ben Arfa has already highlighted the potential in such a scenario at Newcastle but seems to have fallen out of favour after a series of under-par displays.

Stoke’s new boy Marko Arnautovic is another name who has picked up interest on site. Classified as a midfielder across the Fantasy games, the Austrian (priced 5.5, 0.3% owned) was shifted to the lone forward role against Fulham last week and had seven attempts on goal at the Cottage. Chelsea’s Andre Schurrle – to a lesser extent – is another case in point. The German was fielded up front against United in Gameweek 2 and, although he’s been shifted back to the flank, Schurrle (costing 7.4, 0.7% owned) has now started four of the last five league games. Martin Jol’s recent hint that Darren Bent is likely to be a bench-warmer for Fulham could be good news for Dimitar Berbatov’s prospects – the Bulgarian (who is now down to 7.1 with a 4.4% ownership) looks set to lead the line once again after dropping deep to accommodate the on-loan Villa man.

Keeping an eye on those managers who tend to tinker tactically more than most is key, too. Paul Lambert and Brendan Rodgers have both rolled out 3-5-2 formations this term – Antonio Luna was fielded on the left of midfield for Villa, while Jose Enrique has taken up a similar position for Liverpool. If Rodgers retains the position when Glen Johnson returns, the right-back’s appeal will certainly be heightened.

Embrace the Breakthrough Acts

As Ross Barkley was quick to show us, there’s potential to be had in the cut-price bracket from emerging talents this year. Many doubted the Everton youngster could retain his first-team place, never mind continue the exploits which harvested a 10-point return in Gameweek 1 – those who jumped on board quickly have seen Barkley pick up 36 points so far and rise from 4.5 to 5.5.

Only last week, another couple of highly-rated youngsters arrived on Fantasy radars after excelling for their respective sides. Ravel Morrison and Adnan Januzaj both hogged the headlines after double-figure returns for West Ham and United – given their respective displays, it’s difficult to see either player being shifted to the bench. Morrison has now started each of the last four under Sam Allardyce and seems to have established a regular role – he currently sits at 4.4, with an ownership of 2.3%, while Januzaj is priced at 4.7 and currently resides in 4% of Fantasy teams. Given that those who already have the likes of Barkley, Aaron Ramsey and Yaya Toure in place will be less inclined to gamble on their midfields, those budget options could prove invaluable for those of us looking for something different.

Assess Poyet’s Impact at Sunderland

Sunderland’s form and fixtures are enough to deter most but the installation of a new manager could see an about-turn in their Fantasy fortunes. Currently, only two of the Black Cats outfield players have an ownership in excess of 2%, leaving the likes of Adam Johnson (6.7 priced, 1.8% owned), Emanuele Giaccherini (6.7, 1.6%), Craig Gardner (5.5, 0.1%) and Jozy Altidore (6.5, 0.7%) as the likeliest contenders until Steven Fletcher recovers from a dislocated shoulder. Johnson has created 16 goalscoring opportunities this season – second most impressive for midfielders – while only four midfielder have registered more shots inside the box than Giaccherini’s nine; an indication of the Italian’s goal threat. If Poyet can make an immediate impact, games against Newcastle, Hull and Stoke in the next five could provide points.

Be Brave with the Armband

So far this season, the overall lack of returns from big-hitters has meant that picking a captaincy contender has been a little trickier than ever. Robin Van Persie continues to remain the armband favourite in almost every Gameweek but while the Dutchman has failed to replicate last term’s form, those plying their trade for the teams near the top have also stumbled when it comes to producing explosive performances .

Listed in order of Gameweek, the team with the highest scoring player has been: Villa, Cardiff, Swansea, Tottenham, Everton, Everton, West Ham – arguably, only one of those occasions (Christian Benteke in Gameweek 1) was perhaps anticipated due to Villa’s double Gameweek.

With Daniel Sturridge, Romelu Lukaku and Olivier Giroud established joining Van Persie as the top four most owned forwards, it leaves the likes of Sergio Aguero, Wayne Rooney and Luis Suarez as serious alternatives in any given Gameweek. Fraizer Campbell’s showing against City in Gameweek 2 and Loic Remy’s two sets of 13-point hauls in the last three fixtures indicates the points potential on offer from the lesser-fancied frontmen for those looking to take a real punt.