As evidenced by the success of Grant Holt, Rickie Lambert, Charlie Austin, Jamie Vardy and Odion Ighalo over the past few years, the promoted clubs can often provide us with budget forwards that far outdo their favourable price tags.
After bagging 23 goals and eight assists in Burnley’s Championship winning season, Andre Gray has the potential to be the next one off the conveyor belt.
Signed by Sean Dyche last summer for a club-record fee of around £9 million, Gray has followed a similar path to the likes of Austin and Vardy by working his way through the lower leagues to make it to the top-flight.
Having played a part in 43% of the Clarets’ goals on their way to the Championship title, he looks worthy of serious consideration for our three-man frontlines.
- Gray has wasted no time in announcing himself to Fantasy managers over the summer period by scoring eight times, including a weekend hat-trick at Rangers. The Premier League’s form forward over pre-season, he’s been both consistent and explosive and found the net in all five of his appearances. Despite a kind 6.5 price tag in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), he’s shaping up to be a decent differential and is owned by just 10% so far.
- Last season, Gray averaged a shot every 31.3 minutes, which was slightly better than Southampton’s Shane Long (34.9), who is currently the highest owned forward (15.2%) priced 6.5 and under in FPL. Elsewhere in this bracket, Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson was less impressive in this regard, averaging a shot every 48.2 minutes last term, with West Ham’s Andy Carroll (27.6), Southampton’s Charlie Austin (29.1) and Middlesbrough’s Alvaro Negredo (29.4) the quickest.
- Gray also impresses in terms of goal conversion. He netted an eye-catching 21.1%of his opportunities in the previous season – superior to the similarly priced Carroll (16.1%), Long (15.6%) and Austin (12.5%), although Wilson did lead the way, with an impressive goal conversion rate of 29.4% last term, albeit from just 13 appearances. His prospects would be boosted if he’s afforded spot-kicks ahead of team-mate Sam Vokes – Gray took five last term, scoring four, though Vokes scored three when his strike partner was on the pitch. Certainly, this would justify the extra outlay comapred to Vokes’ cost of 6.0.
- Compared to forwards at the other promoted clubs, Gray’s appeal is heightened by a security of starts – Dyche tends to favour consistency of selection and is unlikely to chop and change unnecessarily. The same can’t be said for either Middlesbrough or Hull right now. Aitor Karanka operates with a 4-2-3-1 formation, so while Negredo looks to be the first-choice striker, Jordan Rhodes seems likely to steal minutes off the Spaniard given the ‘Boro manager’s penchant for rotation. With last term’s top scorer Abel Hernandez linked with a move away, few FPL bosses will be prepared to invest in Hull’s attack right now until some sense of stability is restored.
- Gray’s prospects are boosted by the fact that Burnley are the only team facing four home matches in the first six Gameweeks (SWA, LIV, che, HUL, lei, WAT), due to their Gameweek 2 fixture against Liverpool being reversed as the Reds put the finishing touches to their new Main Stand. The former Brentford forward looks to have the ideal platform to hit the ground running, then, with the fixtures against Swansea, Hull and Watford in particular looking very favourable.
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