Members

Tales of the Expected – Lukaku vs Kane

Our next members’ article of the week starts a series of pieces based on our expected goals (xG) data, which is scheduled to be available from Monday.

In this first analysis article, we take time out to assess the two most popular forwards in Fantasy Premier League, Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane, checking out their numbers both home and away over the first seven Gameweeks.

Both had had somewhat contrasting starts to the season.

Lukaku has settled in seamlessly up front for the Red Devils, scoring in all but one of his seven outings.

Whereas both of his double-digit returns have arrived at Old Trafford, all three of Kane’s were delivered on the road.

The Spurs striker has bagged two goals in each of his last trio of road trips but has yet to find the net at his temporary home, Wembley Stadium.

We take a close look at the data now to get a better idea of how they should be performing in accordance with the expected goals (xG) and expected assist (xA) statistics.

We have also added in our own new metric, expected goal involvement (xGI) to incorporate both goals and assists so far.

If you are new to the notion of expected goals, here’s a of handy explanation from the guys at OptaJoe.

Paul Is certain he won't make the same mistakes next season. Follow them on Twitter

1,541 Comments Post a Comment
  1. The Royal Robin
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Any hits needed?

    Lossl
    Cedric Maguire Alonso Bavies
    Sterling Eriksen Brady
    Lukaku Kane Chicharito

    Foster Carroll TFM Chalobah

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Chicharito might miss out. Look out for news tomorrow from Bilic.

      I'm considering Maguire or Alonso in for Kolasinc (if he's out). Which of the pair would you go for?

      1. Pieterke30
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        You won't know if he is out, the presser was today we won't get any update I'm afraid

    2. nadman89
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Not for a hit but eventually chich needs to go

  2. SheBangsTheDrums
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    How does this lot look? Took a hit before the break but should I use WC and have a full surgery?

    Elliot
    Davies Jones Monrael
    Hazard Silva Sterling Ritchie
    Kane (c) Lukaku Abraham

    Foster Carroll Naughton Mariappa

    1. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Nah, looks fine keep the WC in the pocket.

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Not at all! You're in a great shape. That's practically the best front 7 at the moment, imo (prefer Atsu or Richarlison to Ritchie).

      1. *Reformed-Character*
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Why Atsu over Ritchie ?

        1. Twisted Saltergater
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Price, and I think he's a greater source of goals once Shelvey is back in the team and playing him in.

          Atsu was awarded with the Player of the Tournament award in the 2015 African Cup of Nations.

          1. *Reformed-Character*
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 6 months ago

            I came second in a Beauty contest in 1989...

            1. Twisted Saltergater
              • 14 Years
              6 years, 6 months ago

              Congrats...

              Ok, suggest another player at Atsu's price with his caliber? I went with Fellaini but he's injured. I think Atsu will be a good pick for Palace at home in GW9.

              1. *Reformed-Character*
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                6 years, 6 months ago

                Spend the extra .6 and get chupo

    3. nadman89
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Play naughton !

  3. Lone Wolf
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Better defence:

    A) Alonso, Jones, Ward (Dunk, Mbemba)
    B) Monreal, Jones, Davies (Ward, Mbemba)

    1. Magic Bean
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B just

  4. Zlat-man
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Kola to Maguire?
    -4

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Am considering the same. The international break has decimated my team 😕

    2. le flem
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      no

    3. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I'll just bench Kolasinac and get rid next week for no hit

    4. Blue&White85
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      He's not definitely out so not to the hit.

  5. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Aguero back with the main group today 😯

    https://twitter.com/ManCity/status/918505148737081345

    1. le flem
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Ugh, looks like he's not as long out as I thought

    2. FantaCity
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I have to say, I'm now wondering about bringing him straight back in on the Wildcard .... couple weeks he'll be back firing

    3. Lone Wolf
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Sterling or Jesus less nailed now?

    4. Oven Glover
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Interesting presser tomorrow. I’ll have a decent differential IF he plays on Saturday.

      1. *Reformed-Character*
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Not a chance

        1. Oven Glover
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Party pooper!

    5. Yozzer
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Wonderful sight....hes back

    6. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      On the scoutcast, Jonty guaranteed that he wouldn't play. Don't sweat it.

      1. Bezzer
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        He's not Wolverine lol

        1. FPL Virgin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          He's a very experienced FPL pundit, thou.

          1. *Reformed-Character*
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 6 months ago

            I take it you didn't at home the shoutcast

    7. Pariße
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      How is this possible

      1. Oven Glover
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Adamantium

  6. le flem
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    So I did Salah and Firm to Sterling + Jesus. Those moves are ok, right?

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Based on fixtures, yes, but obviously both pairings could score well.

  7. zapper619
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    RMT
    ON A WC

    343
    /= bench begins

    Fabianski / Elliot

    Otamendi , Davies , Ward / Mariappa , Rangel

    Eriksen , sterling , ramsey , Fabregas / carrick

    Kane (c) , vardy , jesus

    Mindbusters
    1. Hazard for Jesus (with pep you never know)

    2. replacing ramsey+fab with some better options!

    1. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      That bench will come back to bite you.

      1. The Knights Template
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        no it won't, it's toothless

    2. nadman89
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Replace fabregas and Ramsey with choupo and rich

  8. The Head-Ake
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    RP :

    1) Azpi, Joselu, Cork, Jesus
    2) Richarlison, Niasse, Otamendi, Jesus
    3) Azpi, Quaner, Cork, Lukaku

    Which one and why? Want more opinions 🙂

    1. The Head-Ake
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      God, I haven't felt the pressurized even for my exams

    2. Harper (No more Penandes)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      2

  9. Stimps
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Kola to

    A) Otamendi
    B) Monreal

    1. FantaCity
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      a

  10. Dr Kenneth Noisewater
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    With Jones and Davies already there, which 3 defs do you prefer?

    A) Monreal / Wimmer / Hunemeier
    B) Maguire / Ward / Mbemba

    1. Flynny
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I don't see the point on having a wildcard with a 4m who will never play..

      1. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        I don’t think it’s that bad. 2 subs will almost always be enough...the extra 0.5m getting a 4m dross can come in very handy

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B. Mbemba is fine. We're still in October so don't worry about having 15 regulars playing.

    3. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      b

  11. Flynny
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Good to go with this lot on wildcard?

    Fab elliot
    Luiz bavies jones ward wimmer
    Hazard Silva richarlison rlc Carroll
    Kane jesus vardy

    Thanks

  12. Feed tha Sheep
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Is Jesus a bad move now or who best option for Firmino?
    A. Jesus (get Morata in two weeks)
    B. Vardy
    C. Other (have Kane Lukaku)

    1. My Name Is Pepu
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Jesus

    2. I Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

  13. CloudSky
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Am i donsky?

    Fabs
    Alonso Davies Cedric Ward
    Hazard Sterling Rich
    Kane Jesus Vardy

    Elliot Wimmer RLC TC

    1. sminkypinky
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Looks good to me.

      1. CloudSky
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Thank you.

  14. *Reformed-Character*
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Firmino to vardy for -4 ?

    1. My Name Is Pepu
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Hold Firmino

    2. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Yes

    3. AFC49
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Yeah

    4. Yozzer
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I am

    5. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      no

  15. Rex Lapis
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Kola to Otamendi/Walker worth a hit?

    1. My Name Is Pepu
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Walker, yes!

  16. FPL FREAK
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Silva or Sterling in place of Mikhitaryan.....???

    1. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Sterling for me

    2. My Name Is Pepu
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Long term - Bald Silva, short term - Poor Man's Sane.

    3. justmatt
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Silva a better long term option, Sterling a decent punt though.

    4. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      silva

  17. lugalooch
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    a) Davies + 4.5 or less
    b) Cresswell + Cedric

    Bit of background, i've had davies from gw1 but i feel so im worried to go without him due to how good hes been to me. I just feel hammers and soton will keep alot more clean sheets with their good fixtures than davies and a 4.5.

    Thanks

    1. My Name Is Pepu
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A) Davies is a season keeper

  18. Lyonnais
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    How does this wildcard team look? Anything you would change?

    Pope / Elliot
    Alonso, Davies, Cedric, Ward, Fernandez
    Eriksen, Silva, Choupo-Moting / 4.5, 4.5
    Kane, Jesus, Vardy

    1.0 ITB

    1. justmatt
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Very nice. Similar to my WC team but I have Lukaku over Jesus and the 1m

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      lovely

    3. Lyonnais
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      thanks both 🙂

  19. skodaole2
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Any chances anyone of them starts this week vs United?

    a) Milner
    b) Chamberlain
    c) Gomez

    1. Harper (No more Penandes)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Gomez should start at RB

    2. Lyonnais
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Gomez would be my guess. Need to defend which accoriding to others he does better than TAA.
      TAA can then play v Maribor in UCL.

    3. skodaole2
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Cheers, rotation makes it difficult to guess, i ll go for Gomez in a draft league the rest seem to be more risky choices

  20. Whats the Mata?
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Bottomed:
    How nailed in Luiz in that Chelsea team?

    1. Deano
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Only threat is from the ref!

    2. justmatt
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Pretty nailed I think.

  21. AFC49
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Midfield option for around 5.8?

    1. Deano
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Choppa!

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      cho po fo sho

  22. sminkypinky
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Jones + Silva
    Or
    Otamendi + Sterling?

    1. Lyonnais
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      O+S

      1. The Knights Template
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        this

        1. sminkypinky
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Thanks.

    2. sminkypinky
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Anyone else? Cheers Lyonnais!

    3. Cityzen Kane
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      given immediate fixtures B... otamendi and sterling, but for some bizzare reason I fancy Stones to do well, but not worth the chance of rotation, stick with Otamendi

  23. Unbowed Unbent N'Golo
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Defence = Alonso, Bertrand, Kolasinac (Rosenior, Long)
    0FTs, 0.4 ITB

    A) Kola --> Ota
    B) C.Long --> Dunk/Martina/4.4
    C) Hope Kola is passed fit

    Is it an easy C?

    1. Unbowed Unbent N'Golo
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      K. Long even, could have sworn his name was Chris Long!

      1. kidzac
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Actually there is two longs in that Burnley team, Chris went out on loan.

    2. Lyonnais
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      C

      Maybe A if Kolasinac is confirmed out.

    3. sminkypinky
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      It's an A for me. Better long term.

  24. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    What do people make of the above xG article?

    Will Kane regress? Will it be more of the same from Lukaku? Is Aguero really the best striker of the lot?

    1. Deano
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      No, yes, no.

    2. Freddo
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Not really taking much from it until they measure Lukaku's performance after they play some proper teams in the next 4 games.

      Doesn't really tell us much other than top striker scores goals for big club, not sure it tells us who's better, Kane has had a tougher start.

      1. Freddo
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Anyway, most will have both.

        1. FPL Virgin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          I'm wildcarding Lukaku out. Very worried.

          1. sminkypinky
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            6 years, 6 months ago

            Keeping him enables an easier switch to Kun. Then again in keeping him you are relying on him to keep scoring and if he does would you still switch to Kun?
            I am going forth without Kaku.

          2. Freddo
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 6 months ago

            I don't have Lukaku this week, In have Jesus, if Aguero is back I'll go straight to Aguero or try Morata (if he's fit) Kane goes nowhere, Lukaku will be in and out.

            Jose is a big factor in how well Lukaku does, in big games you know he'll be less attacking, there's no doubts with City, Spurs or Chelsea with that regard.

      2. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        That's a great point. The difficulty of the opposition played needs to be taken into account.

        1. Freddo
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Will be very interested to see this article again after United play Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs.

          Say what you want about Liverpool but they've conceded one goal at Anfield and Jose won't go at them, Spurs and Chelsea know how to defend, his numbers could look a lot different in 4 weeks.

    3. sminkypinky
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Imo Kane will come away with the boot. Lukaku will be close. Kun will get injured / suspended for a number of matches.

    4. Yozzer
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Not reading it. Don't need an article

      Kane kun morata is the way to go. Don't care what a few numbers say 😉

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Ruddy Maverick!

        1. Yozzer
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Ha. ;-). I'm sure I'll pay for my ignorance

  25. Deano
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Why is Kola flagged? Seen nothing to suggest his sub was injury based.

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Wenger has said he has a slight hip problem in today's press conference.

    2. Yozzer
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      All signs positive apparently. He will be fine

      1. Kingtekkerz
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        The article say exactly the same as Wenger this morning. He says Kolasinac will most likely be fit

        1. potatoace
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Im not denying that.

        2. Twisted Saltergater
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Sorry, but where does it say that?

    3. *Reformed-Character*
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Use google

  26. JogaSemmedo
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Which picks?

    1. VVD or 2. Maguire

    A. Salah or B. Coutinho

    1. Lyonnais
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      2
      A

    2. sminkypinky
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      2B for me.

  27. Fuchs Mane Kante
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Skipped the article.

    Own both.

    1. sminkypinky
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Certain points for you then. More for many others maybe... 😉 Maybe.

  28. Collie01
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Foster* Elliot
    Bailly* Yoshida* Naughton, Daniels*
    Eriksen, Mkhi* Ritchie*
    Kane, Lukaku, Jesus.
    (Carroll, D Stephens, 4.0)

    1FT, 0.4 itb. Concerns about players marked

    A) Hold FT
    B) Mkhi to Sterling
    C) WC
    D) Other

    Thanks

    1. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Not a great time to wildcard with all this uncertainty and certainly wouldn't do it this late, I'd do B

      1. Collie01
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks.

        It's a situation where I could do with changing quite a bit, but nothing needs urgent attention.

  29. We Will Klopp you
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Next few gwks will be key for info, either need to decide to go Sterling(Pogba), Vardy or Richarlison, Morata in a big front 3 going forwards.

    1. sminkypinky
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Every week provides additional info that probably contadicts the previous... luck plays a big factor in this malarkey.

    2. JogaSemmedo
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Are you on wildcard?

      I'm likely going to set up so can make the same moves. Who would make up your 3rd big forward assuming you have Kane.

      1. We Will Klopp you
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Not on WC atm. I've got Kane, Lukaku, Vardy. Sterling & Vardy is likely to outscore Richarlison & Jesus(morata placeholder) over the next few gwks, So I'd go Vardy

        1. JogaSemmedo
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Agree would go with those two for sure next two at least then reassess on Morata

  30. Evasivo
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Ryan or Pope guys?

    1. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Fab + Burnley def

    2. Cityzen Kane
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      was considering pope myself, but its a transfer waiting to happen. Ryan and Fabianski both good options and nailed I.M.O.