Frisking The Fixtures – Gameweek 23 – The Weak

After assessing those sides with strong upcoming fixtures over the next four-to-six Gameweeks, our attentions turn to those with less cause for optimism.

As mentioned in yesterday’s article, there is now a split of home and away fixtures in the schedule – some teams face just two home matches over the next six and therefore play only four times in front of their own fans across the next 10 Gameweeks.

That is the case for all four team listed below, with high-profile assets from Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United braced for a more testing period.

As we elaborated on in yesterday’s article, the upcoming domestic cup matches and the return of the Champions League – with the knockout stages getting underway between Gameweek 27-28 – further factors worth considering.

Tottenham Hotspur

(sot MUN liv ARS cry HUD)
The Prospects – Goals
Only Liverpool (13) have scored more goals than Spurs (12) over the last four Gameweeks, with last Saturday’s 4-0 win over Everton restoring faith in their leading attacking options.

Sunday’s trip to Southampton looks ideal to maintain that momentum, given that the Saints suffered a 5-2 defeat when the two sides last met back in Gameweek 20.

However, Mauricio Pochettino’s men then enter a brutal three-match run between Gameweeks 25 and 27, taking on three of their top four rivals.

Manchester United and Liverpool are both among the four clubs conceding the fewest number of shots over the last four Gameweeks, although Arsenal’s defensive struggles mean that the north London derby in Gameweek 27 does not look intimidating.

The outlook then swings positively again, with a trip to Crystal Palace in Gameweek 28 followed by a home meeting with Huddersfield Town to conclude this six-match stretch.

Palace have tightened up defensively of late, though, keeping clean sheets in their last two home matches, including against Man City.

The Huddersfield clash a week later appears looks very promising – David Wagner’s men are currently struggling to regain their previous levels of resilience, having leaked seven goals in their last two outings.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
It is at the back where the prospects really take a nosedive.

While a clean sheet looks a strong possibility this weekend – no team have created fewer big chances than Southampton (two) over the last four Gameweeks – it’s difficult to foresee a flow of defensive returns in the following three matches.

Gameweek 25 and 26 opponents Man United and Liverpool sit third and fifth for total shots over the last four Gameweeks, and will be tough to keep at bay.

Equally, while Arsenal are in a difficult period, they have scored 10 goals in their last five encounters.

By contrast, Palace are currently flying high, and, having scored twice in seven of their last nine at home, will provide another stiff test at Selhurst Park in Gameweek 28 – Hodgson’s men have now scored in seven of their last eight matches.

This run concludes with a plum home fixture against Huddersfield, who have failed to score in seven of their last nine away outings.

The Turning Point
Gameweek 28 marks the beginning of a favourable run-in for Spurs, who only face two major tests against Chelsea and Man City over the final 11 Gameweeks.

Verdict
Checking in with their overall batch of fixtures to follow, Spurs are afforded a four-day gap between next weekend’s FA Cup trip to Newport and their Gameweek 25 match with Man United.

However, that Red Devils match is one of four over a brutal 13-day run that also pits them against Liverpool, Arsenal and Juventus – the first-leg of their Champions League head-to-head with the Italians is on Tuesday February 13. Rotation, to a certain extent, may well be a factor here, though there’s an argument that Pochettino can ill-afford to take chances with his line-ups.

Furthermore, a win over Newport will also see Spurs play in the FA Cup fifth round on the weekend of Saturday 17 February.

After Gameweek 24, the case to own a midfielder alongside Harry Kane weakens significantly based purely on the fixtures, though Son Heung-min boasts the form to make many owners reconsider over selling.

Those who brought in a Spurs defender for Double Gameweek 22 are also likely to make alternative plans once the Southampton clash has passed.

Manchester United

(bur tot HUD new CHE cry)
The Prospects – Goals
Saturday’s trip to Burnley represents a testing match-up given that the Clarets have only conceded eight goals at Turf Moor, although five of those have come in recent home defeats to Spurs and Liverpool.

United then travel to Wembley Stadium in Gameweek 25, with goals again set to be hard to come by against a robust Spurs backline.

The home meeting with Huddersfield provides some respite in Gameweek 26, while you also have to fancy them to get the better of Newcastle United in the match that follows, despite the fact that Rafa Benitez’s side have conceded just twice over the last four Gameweeks.

Chelsea’s visit to Old Trafford in Gameweek 28 again looks set to limit the potential of United’s attack – the Blues are on a run of five clean sheets in the last six Gameweeks. But this match could be rescheduled due to the Carabao Cup final taking place on the same weekend.

The final fixture has Jose Mourinho’s men head to Crystal Palace, which now looks far less straightforward given the Eagles’ recent resurgence.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Having kept three consecutive clean sheets, United carry good defensive form into a mixed period in their schedule.

Saturday’s opponents Burnley have failed to score in four of their last six, offering some hope at one of this season’s surprise packages.

But defensive points are unlikely against Spurs in Gameweek 25, before a very kind home fixture against Huddersfield: the Terriers continue to struggle for a cutting edge and have produced fewer shots inside the box than any other side over the last four Gameweeks.

Newcastle’s misfiring attack also makes the trip to St James’ Park in Gameweek 27 a reasonable match-up, while although Chelsea will provide a major test in Gameweek 28, they are also currently struggling for goals.

Palace provide the opposition in Gameweek 29 and, sat comfortably in the top half for big chances created over the last four, should provide a stern challenge.

The Turning Point
This is certainly a tricky period for United, with four of their next six on the road, while they play just four of their next 10 matches at home, with Chelsea and Liverpool two of the visitors to Old Trafford.

Indeed, there is no real sustained period of favourable fixtures from now until the end of the season for Mourinho’s men.

Verdict
Looking at their overall upcoming schedule, United will be fancied to progress past Yeovil Town in the fourth round of the FA Cup on Friday January 26.

They then have a five-day gap before facing Spurs in Gameweek 25, with Huddersfield and Newcastle their subsequent two league opponents.

Unlike Spurs, United have an extra week before playing the first leg of their Champions League knockout clash with Sevilla – that takes place on Wednesday 21 February.

Although that’s just four days before a Gameweek 28 visit from Chelsea, rotation looks highly unlikely against his current nemesis, Antonio Conte.

However, if the Blues beat Arsenal in the second leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final next week, their trip to Old Trafford would need to be rescheduled and may well move out of the Gameweek, potentially afford United a blank.

In terms of targets, Jesse Lingard has been more effective away from home, with five of his seven goals coming on the road. That perhaps means that patience is required, while his price tag perhaps buys him time.

The seemingly imminent arrival of Alexis Sanchez could prove a major factor in how we assess their attacking contingent going forward – particularly his possible impact on Lingard’s minutes.

At the back, there is possibly more of a concern based on the fact that nine of United’s 13 clean sheets have come at home. Their away record will have to improve to see David De Gea and Phil Jones remain standout options.

Also be wary of…

Crystal Palace
There is a slight improvement in the short-term schedule, with fixtures against West Ham and Newcastle over the next three Gameweeks.

But the gruelling run is prolonged all the way through to Gameweek 31, with just four home matches in the next 10. Spurs, Man United and Liverpool are three of the visitors to Selhurst Park.

It is difficult to make a case for Palace options, then, with key asset Wilfried Zaha delivering just a single goal and three assists in the last 11 Gameweeks.

Roy Hodgson’s men are the only side in this article with no more than league matches left to play, having been knocked out of the FA Cup third round by Brighton.

Newcastle United
This is now a make or break period of the season for Rafa Benitez’ side, as they face only two of their next six at home, and those are against Man United and Burnley.

The Magpies arguably have the most punishing run-in of any team, and Fantasy managers seem unlikely to make even a passing glance at their options unless activity in the transfer window changes the landscape dramatically.

In terms of the FA Cup, the Magpies travel to Chelsea next weekend and there’d be no surprise if they joined Palace on the sidelines, allowing Benitez to focus fully on top-flight survival.