Life in FPL’s Top 10

For five of the last six Gameweeks FFScout community regular Matt Kearney (aka Bøwstring The Carp) has been in the top ten of the overall rankings. Currently in 10th spot he is just 38 points off the summit.

With a top 1,000 finish under his belt in his previous seven campaigns, and with his Free Hit, Bench Boost and Wildcard chips to play he is in a good position to take the title.

I caught up with him to find out more about what it is like to be in the top ten and his key tips for success.

Top Marx: One area you’ve done well in this year is immediate transfer points (155 points after hits). What do you think are the good transfers you’ve made this season? And what has been your thinking behind them?

Bow: I think the one that springs to mind was when Chelsea’s Alvaro Morata got suspended just before Gameweek 19. It was a one-week suspension and his fixtures were nice for when he returned. But Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero had a nice game that week too so I decided to make the swap and captain Kun. He got a brace and an assist to deliver a 32-point return. Funnily enough Tottenham’s Harry Kane outscored him with a hat-trick, but I owned both at a time that many didn’t, so it was all good.

I have made some bad moves throughout the season too. I took out Burnley’s Nick Pope early in the season thinking he would decline, and brought in Liverpool’s Simon Mignolet, who eventually got dropped. That cost me 17 points. But I think a “good transfer” is not only one that gets points but one that rectifies a mistake. Realising a mistake and fixing it quickly can spare you losing any more points (FFS user LateRiser originally pointed this out to me, thankfully).

Top Marx: What mistakes have you rectified? And is Everton’s Theo Walcott, a player you currently own, a mistake?

Bow: Getting rid of Mignolet three gameweeks after bringing him in was definitely the best decision I’ve made. It was a big mistake to go against Pope’s form at the time and presume he would decline. Should have just stuck by the information that was presented rather than try to jump the gun and be clever. Losing Watford’s Richarlison around Gameweek 17 also worked out well as I had enough cash to bring in Tottenham’s Heung-Min Son early, when he was hauling.

Yeah Walcott is a tough one. I think he still has returns in him for their home games, but their away form has been so bad that he’s definitely being flagged as a concern in my team. I do have plans to ditch him after the blank week in Gameweek 31, so I’m hoping he can do enough to chip in with the points over the next three games to justify my faith in him. Burnley away, Brighton at home, and Stoke away in the next three should, on paper, be enough for him to grab a goal or two. So fingers crossed he doesn’t turn out to be a flop.

Top Marx: You wrote a Top Tips article for Fantasy Football Scout after Leicester City’s title winning season. At that point you’d just finished 754th overall in FPL.  If you were to write a new Top Tips article for this season what else do you think you would add?

Bow: Definitely be flexible and know when to be patient (not sure if I had that one mentioned previously or not). I see a lot of FPL managers make early moves, and in some cases I understand that because you can be priced out of a move if a player’s price rises or drops. But more often than not this season, we’ve seen so many upsets and factors outside of the Premier League matches affecting the game, such as  suspensions in cup games and midweek injuries. West Ham’s Marko Arnautovic and Chelsea’s Alvaro Morata are two players that spring to mind where surprise team news caught people out. 

While team value is an important factor in the game, sometimes eating a price drop to get more information about players making the weekend games uninjured is more valuable.

A final point that I definitely don’t think I’ve mentioned is social media. I’m back using Twitter this year more than ever. I generally used it for checking the line-ups, but if you spend enough time on it you will find a few accounts that are “In the know” and will get early injury or team news through the grapevine. It can give you a big edge at times.

Top Marx: You have a psychology and philosophy background, you are aware of fallacies and bias – does this affect your decision making? If so, how? Also, do you feel it helps not supporting a particular Premier League team?

Bow: It’s definitely good to have a knowledge about the different biases out there and be aware of when we are being biased. For example,  I have a huge aversion to Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey as an FPL pick, but in the end, if he hits form soon I have to consider whether I’m going to jump on the bandwagon for his points, or if I’m going to miss out from stubborn pride and risk a rank drop. It has happened to me in the past with big players like Luis Suarez and Gareth Bale, and I’d like to think I’ve learned my lesson since.

And, yes, linked into that I’ve found being a neutral has helped in the FPL decision-making process. As a supporter you may sometimes have an expectation of a player, which can leak into your FPL mindset. Or a player might play well for your football team, but may not necessarily translate into a good FPL pick. Choosing him as an option while it can work out, can also backfire heavily.  And then because you support the team, you may find the decision harder to take him out and admit the mistake. I think we see it a lot where FPL managers will avoid a player in hot form who is playing against their team that week. It’s good to be aware of it. But having said that, being a neutral doesn’t eliminate this altogether – you’ll still find yourself hating certain players and teams for whatever reasons at times throughout the season – I just pray Swindon never make it back up to the PL.

It is worth reading Ludo’s fantastic article on The Psychology of Fantasy Football for more on this.

Top Marx: Just one more question on a specific bias – loss aversion – the idea that we feel losses more strongly than we feel gains (not just humans feel this, it has also been proven in monkeys). In FPL this is seen in the anger and frustration we feel when missing out on points, which in turn can lead to rage transfers. You dedicate a lot of time to FPL, how do you deal with the anger and frustration it can generate?

Bow: Absolutely. I think this is more relevant to me personally this season than any other. Take the recent week I scored 99 points. Fantastic score right? I had cut down a lead my rivals had on that Saturday. For the Sunday I had Jones left against Newcastle. Newcastle won 1-0 while Liverpool and Chelsea both kept clean sheets. I didn’t have a Liverpool defender and, of course, my Chelsea defender – Marcos Alonso – was missing that week. Just felt like a great score had become an okay score, and the lead I cut down had been wiped out from the points I failed to get.

I think the best advice I have for not only myself but for others who get weeks like this, is to just take a step back. Last year I didn’t do this. As I said, I made silly transfers to try and make up the ground I was losing – very similar to gamblers trying to chase lost bets with 20/1 shots rather than trying to minimise their losses or break even with favourites. It’s all risk calculation and you need a clear head to do that.

Last year I was left very frustrated and even wanted to take a break out of the group and from FPL as I felt I was getting too obsessive about it. TheFantasyFreÆK persuaded me to stay on, but I vowed not to get too involved this year. It may look like I am this year but I’m really not. I don’t spend hours on stats tables, I dedicate only what time I need to looking at players via the eye-test, and I don’t let emotions in any way affect my transfers (or try not to). If you have a bad week, take a few days away from FPL, come back and reassess. Otherwise you’ll find yourself trying to find a quick answer to a problem that needs time and clarity, and dig yourself into a deeper hole.

Top Marx: Ludo mentions Loss Aversion in connection with the Endowment Effect – holding onto to players we fear losing because they have the potential to hurt us even though they are underperforming.

Bow: Yeah I think Morata, and to an extent Kane were examples of this. Managers like Jay Egersdorff jumped ship on Kane (“Kanexit”), I actually held Kane because I thought he was just unlucky, he had the underlying stats and was getting in good positions. But in the end you do what you think is best for the team.

Top Marx: Ok, it’s the business end of the season and you have turned the overall standings into a mini-league with your exceptional performance this year. Is your approach changing now that you are so close to the top?

Bow: Yes and no. Since getting into the Top 20 I’ve found myself checking those above and below me; their teams, their scores, etc. Getting an idea of what players are “template” in the Top 50 and seeing what I’m competing against and how much risk I can take, etc. The likes of Salah, Kane, Alonso, Otamendi, Sterling, Firmino, and a Liverpool defender are all very common. Ultimately we’re all there because we have similarly good teams with the exception of a few tweaks that mix things up each week. But from Gameweek 30 onward I think the whole dynamic is going to change rapidly.

The only thing that has influenced my decision-making in the Top 10 has really been captaincy. It’s essentially where the biggest moves on the table are made. I’ve found those looking to play safe / conservative go with Salah, those looking to make ground go with Aguero or Kane. It’s a very simplistic, black and white way of looking at it and in one sense it is true. But I try not let it influence me. First and foremost, I look at my team and say “Who from Salah, Kane or Aguero will score the most this week?”  – that’s paramount. Then I factor in these other little factors, and it may or may not influence my decision.

At the end of the day, I try to remind myself, “you’re up at this rank because you just played your game”, and I try let that ground me. But of course at times I do have to factor in what others will do around me, and how I can gain an edge. As I’ve said, things are going to mix up a lot from here on out. A blank week in Gameweek 31 could see many Wildcard or Free Hit. When others use their Wildcards the whole template will shift and will be a moment of sink or swim for many in their decisions. It’s nervy but exciting.

Top Marx: Good luck! Your team looks pretty well set for the upcoming fixture list – are there any players you don’t have that you would like for these next three Gameweeks? And I presume the plan at the moment is to Wildcard in Gameweek 32, 33, or 34?

Bow: Yep the plan is to Wildcard in Gameweek 34. Hopefully I can roll two free transfers into Gameweek 32 and take a punt on a couple of players for two gameweeks before I hit the Wildcard button.

Looking over the next three Gameweeks I would like to go back to Arnautovic for sure; playing up top, classed as a midfielder in FPL, and has been showing some good signs since returning from injury.

Would’ve still had him in my team had he not picked up that last injury. Leicester’s Riyad Mahrez is another one who has looked good with the potential to score well despite the blank in 31. And likewise Tottenham’s Son or Christian Eriksen over the next two.

A couple of players would be tempting if their teams were playing better, like Arsenal. Got the fixtures but not the form, maybe Ramsey or new-signing Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, can turn it around. And likewise West Brom – I would be tempted by Craig Dawson if their defensive form was better. While he has the goal threat, ultimately you look for clean sheet potential first and foremost when picking a defender, and it’s just not there for West Brom at the minute.