Moving Target – Mark Hughes

After parting company with Mauricio Pellegrino on Monday following last weekend’s 3-0 defeat to Newcastle United, Southampton have appointed Mark Hughes as their new manager.

The Welshman has agreed a contract until the end of the season, and takes over with Saints mired in 17th place, just one point clear of the relegation zone.

Hughes has eight matches to ensure Southampton maintain their Premier League status, and believes his fresh outlook can prove to be the difference:

“I bring experience of the Premier League. I understand what it takes in this league to win games. But first and foremost I think it’s about coming in and maybe being that different voice, that different message from myself and the staff, that will enable the players to recognise and focus on what needs to be done in this key period of the season.”

The History

After an illustrious playing career, which included a brief spell with Southampton, Hughes began his managerial career in 1999 with the Wales national team.

Five years later, Hughes took charge at Blackburn Rovers, and guided them to sixth and seventh place finishes before taking over at Manchester City in the summer of 2008.

But his time at the Etihad was short-lived, while brief spells with Fulham and Queens Park Rangers followed before being appointed Stoke City manager ahead of the 2013/14 campaign.

Hughes enjoyed three successful seasons with the Potters, producing consecutive ninth place finishes.

But after taking a step back in 2016/17, finishing 13th, Stoke endured a difficult start this season, culminating in Hughes’ departure in January following a 2-1 defeat to League Two outfit Coventry City in the FA Cup third round.

The Prospects

Having won just one of their previous 17 league matches, Southampton will hope the appointment of Hughes can prove to be the springboard to help achieve Premier League safety.

One of Saints’ main problems has been their inability to turn draws into wins. They have endured 13 stalemates this season – two more than any other side.

Resultantly, only West Bromwich Albion (three) have recorded fewer wins than Southampton, with five.

Although they’ve scored just 29 times, the St Mary’s side sit as high as eighth for shots (364) and ninth for efforts in the box (218).

Yet in terms of goal conversion, only Crystal Palace (7.4%) and West Brom (7.8%) boast worse goal conversion rates than the south coast club (8%).

The fact that Charlie Austin is their top scorer with six goals – having made just five starts due to injuries – says it all.

In recent matches, Pellegrino has persevered with club-record signing Guido Carrillo, who has yet to open his account in the Premier League since arriving from Monaco in January.

That has meant limited first-team opportunities for Manolo Gabbiadini and Shane Long. But the change in management may well mean they are both handed more of a chance to shine during the season run-in.

Encouragingly for Hughes, outwith the top six, Southampton are the best of the rest in terms of chances created this season, with 282.

In James Ward-Prowse, they have one of the best set-piece exponents in the Premier League, while Dusan Tadic, Sofiane Boufal and Nathan Redmond can all trouble opposition defences.

Tactically, one of Pellegrino’s downfalls was a lack of flexibility. He stuck rigidly with a 4-2-3-1 formation, only deciding to play with two strikers during the latter stages of matches.

Under Pellegrino, Saints were a possession-based team. They sit seventh for possession this season with an average of 53.6%.

While Hughes tends to favour a 4-2-3-1 system, he won’t shirk from trying different tactical approaches in order to get the most out of the players at his disposal.

At Stoke, he played with a 3-4-2-1 for the opening months of the campaign, before switching to a four-man defence in both 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1 systems.

It’s interesting to note the Potters averaged just 41.5% possession under Hughes.

The Welsh boss has favoured playing with centre forwards with good pace and movement in order to thrive while playing on the counter-attack. This season, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting and Mame Biram Diouf have mainly operated up top.

Defensively, Hughes’ record at Stoke was unconvincing. The Potters conceded 47 goals prior to the Welshman’s dismissal – seven more than any other side.

This, despite bringing in Kevin Wimmer, Bruno Martins Indi and Chelsea defender Kurt Zouma on a season-long loan last summer.

That is compounded by the Stoke defence’s improvement since Paul Lambert took charge at the bet365 Stadium.

Under Hughes, the Potters conceded an average of 2.13 goals per match.

But that has fallen to 0.85 goals with Lambert at the helm.

Significantly, Lambert has overseen a major improvement in terms big chances conceded.

They are now only giving up a big chance every 73.7 minutes, compared to one every 34.9 minutes under Hughes.

Southampton, meanwhile, have conceded 44 goals, and have managed just one clean sheet from their last nine encounters.

But until Maya Yoshida returns following a knee injury, Hughes appears to have very few options to change what has been a settled back four.

Pellegrino decided to replace goalkeeper Fraser Forster following a difficult first half of the season for the England international, with Alex McCarthy the first-choice stopper since Gameweek 21.

But Forster is another player who could benefit from the change of manager. On the downside, he’s a little more expensive in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), priced at 4.7 to McCarthy’s 4.4.

Looking at our season ticker, Southampton’s run-in is regarded as the least appealing of any side, with five of their final eight matches against top nine teams.

That hardly bodes well for a side with a single win – against West Brom – in the last 18 Gameweeks.

However, there’s a chance that Hughes’ side could have two double Gameweeks to come, which may factor into the thinking of those Wildcarding in Gameweek 32.

Their trip to Swansea is expected to drop into Gameweek 34, though this is somewhat offset by a home match with Chelsea beforehand.

Ironically, Hughes’ first match in charge could also impact on double Gameweek 37.

If Saints beat Wigan in the FA Cup this weekend – or if Leicester beat Chelsea – then their Gameweek 35 clash with the Foxes would be postponed and likely shifted to Gameweek 37, along with a trip to Everton.

An impressive display could yet bring budget options such as Jack Stephens and/or Ward-Prowse into contention.

Further Reference

Mark Hughes Wikipedia

Mark Hughes Transfer Markt Page