Which Man City players will start both matches in Double Gameweek 25?

Fantasy Premier League managers are faced with limited options to cover Manchester City’s double set of fixtures in Gameweek 25.

The defending champions will be playing Arsenal (home) and Everton (away) in the round of matches after next, which may influence transfers for Gameweek 24.

With very few clear choices for making a move ahead of Manchester City’s trip to Newcastle on Wednesday night, we have analysed Pep Guardiola’s team selection over recent months to try and second-guess his rotation policy.

We have isolated two case study periods from the 2018/19 campaign when Manchester City had midweek fixtures to play or a particularly busy Premier League schedule.

Case Study 1: Gameweeks 14-16

The first one runs from Gameweeks 14 to 16, which covered a seven day period. On Saturday December 1, Bournemouth came to the Etihad Stadium, on Tuesday December 4, City travelled to face Watford before going to Stamford Bridge the following Saturday.

This particular period is a great example to analyse as it bears a lot of similarity with the run of games coming up for Manchester City. It started with a home match, just as City have at the beginning of Gameweek 25, that preceded a midweek away trip that led into a crucial Premier League encounter with Chelsea.

• Gameweek 14: Bournemouth (H) 3-1 W

• Gameweek 15: Watford (A) 1-2 W

• Gameweek 16: Chelsea (A) 2-0 L

Case Study 2: Gameweeks 17-21

The second case study period collects all the Christmas and New Year matches to see which players were used the most often with matches coming thick and fast, on average every two to three days.

This ran from Saturday December 15 to Sunday January 3.

• Gameweek 17: Everton (H) 3-1 W
• Gameweek 18: Crystal Palace (H) 2-3 L
• Gameweek 19: Leicester City (A) 2-1 L
• Gameweek 20: Southampton (A) 1-3 W
• Gameweek 21: Liverpool (H) 2-1 W

Defence

Ederson (£5.6m) remains the only player with a cast-iron place in Manchester City’s starting line-up for every Gameweek. Looking at the data from the two selected periods, the goalkeeper was the only one to start every match and also play every minute.

Aymeric Laporte (£5.9m) is also a regular feature in the side, starting all but one Premier League match at centre-back. It is fair to say that the Frenchman is the most likely defender to start both matches in Double Gameweek 25, but we can’t trust Guardiola completely.

Yes, Laporte played virtually every minute of the hectic Christmas period, but his only benching of the campaign came the last time Manchester City had a normal midweek fixture between two Saturday Gameweeks – the Gameweek 15 trip to Watford. With this away match at Everton on February 6 representing similar circumstances, there is definitely a chance that Laporte could be benched again, especially with the key clash to Chelsea so soon afterwards.

However, we think either him or Ederson for Double Gameweek 25 will have the potential to deliver points is another point worth considering. Yes, they represent the most likely starters in both matches, but clean sheets have hardly been regular occurrences for them this season. After keeping eight in the first 13 Gameweeks, Guardiola’s men went eight league matches in a row without one.

Between Gameweeks 14 to 21, Manchester City were third only to Liverpool and Chelsea for shots allowed in the penalty box (44), but conceded more than those two sides put together in that period. A large number of their opponents in this run were scoring with their first attempt on target, showing that City struggled to keep teams out even on the rare occasions when they were attacked.

While there have been back-to-back clean sheets in Gameweeks 22 and 23, it’s hard to know if City’s defence have returned to a strong defensive position given that Wolves were reduced to 10 men early on and Huddersfield, without a permanent manager at the time, typically struggle to score at home.

Arsenal and Everton might prove sterner tests for Ederson and company, the Gunners especially creative in the last four Gameweeks, only Burnley fashioning more big chances in that time. Meanwhile, Marco Silva’s Everton may be bottom of the league for accuracy since Gameweek 20, but they rank fifth for efforts in the penalty box over that period. Therefore, going in for even just one City defensive asset, considering the upcoming Blank Gameweek 27, may not yield too much of a return.

Midfield

Analysing Manchester City’s two most recent busy periods, it is clear that the most likely midfielder to start both of their Double Gameweek fixtures is Bernardo Silva (£7.6m). The Portuguese international was on the teamsheet for every match between Gameweeks 14 and 21, covering the first midweek Gameweek of the campaign and the Christmas period.

In fact, there have only been three Gameweeks this season where Bernardo has not started, one of which, the 4-0 win at West Ham in Gameweek 13, was enforced through injury. The other two were the Gameweek 4 win over Newcastle and the 3-0 win at Huddersfield last time out.

Coincidentally that trip to the London Stadium was the one before the Gameweeks 14 to 16 case study analysed above, suggesting that having the previous weekend off helped Bernardo start three of the Premier League matches in the space of seven days. Having played just 18 minutes at the John Smith’s Stadium in Gameweek 23, before missing out on the League Cup semi-final second leg, might have represented the rest Bernardo needed to start the FA Cup fourth round and a healthy chunk of the four upcoming league matches across Gameweeks 24, 25 and 26.

If he is named among the substitutes against Newcastle, then I think we can treat that as a green light of two starts in Double Gameweek 25, but even if he is heavily involved at St James’ Park, Bernardo’s chances of a start are good given his minutes history this season.

Fernandinho (£5.3m) looks to be in a similar situation, starting and completing every match between Gameweeks 14 and 16, while only missing out on two matches between Gameweeks 17 and 21 through injury. Only Ederson and Laporte have managed more Premier League minutes than the Brazilian this season out of City options.

However, whether either Bernardo or Fernandinho represents solid investment outside of their security of starts is another matter. The Brazilian holding midfielder has offered very little potential for Fantasy returns this season, despite being a key member of the Manchester City team and is unlikely to provide much as a Double Gameweek player too.

Bernardo Silva looks a little more promising, but there is clearly a reason why he costs less than some of the big hitters. Sterling and David Silva are the only Manchester City players to have created more chances than the Portuguese international this season, but his position in the charts is influenced by his game-time. When we compare the City midfield by minutes per chance created, five can boast better than Bernardo. When it comes to minutes per goal attempt in the box, seven of his midfield colleagues have better scores.

Sané and Sterling are obviously the two midfield options that might prove the most popular for Double Gameweek 25, but it goes without saying that each of them is much less guaranteed of a start than Bernardo or Fernandinho.

Sterling feels less secure than his German colleague given what happened from Gameweeks 14 to 16 and the Christmas period. The England international was benched for the midweek Gameweek 15 fixture used instead for the win over Bournemouth and the crunch trip to Chelsea several days after Watford. Furthermore, Sterling featured only as a substitute in the 3-1 win over Everton in Gameweek 17, admittedly scoring, before having his minutes managed in Gameweek 18.

Meanwhile, Sané missed out on only one starting line-up in our two case studies, the Gameweek 20 win at Southampton. Obviously, that was a run of matches when he had little competition for his place given Benjamin Mendy‘s (£6.1m) injury, although the Frenchman appears to have recently had a further relapse in his comeback. If we hear that Mendy remains a doubt in Guardiola’s next press conference then that probably increases Sané’s chances of starting both Double Gameweek 25 matches.

He and Sterling both had their chances of Premier League starts boosted by the fact that neither of them registered any minutes in Manchester City’s most recent League Cup and FA Cup ties. That means they have not played a competitive minute since the win at Huddersfield eight days ago, a pretty healthy rest period ahead of a busy schedule, while Riyad Mahrez (£8.3m) played 180 minutes in both cup matches. For this reason, it does look as if Sané and Sterling are probably the best City options and as long as an exit strategy can be formulated for Blank Gameweek 27 a double-up on the pair could prove effective.

Also worth considering is David Silva (£8.5m), whose recent rests could see him fresh and ready to do well in Double Gameweek 25. As he was the subject of our most recent Spot the Differential article, head over there for more detail.

The only other midfield option perhaps worth looking to is Kevin de Bruyne (£9.7m) considering his role as a key regular starter last season. However, things aren’t so clear with the Belgian this year after his struggles with injury. The sample size since his latest return is not yet large enough to truly tell whether he can become a consistent name on the team sheet by Double Gameweek 25. Obviously, De Bruyne was absent for our first case study period and featured just three times between Gameweeks 17 and 21 as he took a knock against Leicester. Furthermore, he has started just two of the last four Premier League matches, and was involved from the start in both recent cup encounters. We might know more after Guardiola’s latest press conference and the Newcastle game, so it is probably too risky to sign him ahead of Gameweek 24, at the very least.

As for De Bruyne’s Fantasy credentials, he still has a little way to go to prove he is back to his complete best from last season. Two of his midfield colleagues have better minutes per chance created this season, while eight can boast better minutes per goal attempt in the box.

Forwards

Working out which one of Sergio Aguero (£11.3m) and Gabriel Jesus (£10.1m) will start Manchester City games is as difficult now as it has ever been.

The first case study period was during Aguero’s groin injury, which is why he did not feature between Gameweeks 14 and 16.

However, Jesus was not exactly first choice for all three of those matches, all within a space of seven days. The Brazilian was benched for the Gameweek 16 trip to Chelsea, with Sterling utilised as a false-nine in his place, although this did not prove especially effective as City lost 2-0.

In the second period, after Aguero had returned, there were two starts for Jesus and three for the Argentinian.

Since then, the pair have largely alternated with Jesus starting Gameweek 22, being benched for Gameweek 23 and the League Cup trip to Burton before starting against Burnley.

Meanwhile, Aguero was benched against Wolves, started against Huddersfield and Burton before featuring for 15 minutes as a substitute against Burnley.

This rotation between the two makes it very difficult to call which of them will start each Premier League match across Gameweeks 24, 25 and 26.

Aguero could be favoured for the crucial match against Chelsea, which might see him benched for Everton after having started at home to Arsenal. But we can only assume that at this stage.

Either way, it does seem very unlikely that either one of Jesus or Aguero will start both matches in Double Gameweek 25, making signing one of them beforehand a questionable move.