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Wisdom of The Crowd: Gameweek 25

Each week we will be reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).  And don’t forget there is £50,000 in prize money on offer every week.

THE CONCEPT

We must all make predictions about how each match will go when deciding on our fantasy team selection, predicting where the goals will be scored, which teams are most likely to keep a clean sheet and so on.  If we aggregate the predictions of thousands of football fans playing the Premier League Predictor game on Superbru, any bias should be ironed out, and the collective knowledge will produce more accurate predictions that we can make on our own.

We tested this last season by taking the average community predictions, and entering them into the game as a user called Mr Crowd Wisdom.  That user finished in 20th place out of 481 people in the Fantasy Football Scout league – a highly knowledgeable group – and also beat 98% of other people on the global leaderboard.

We’ll follow the average picks again this season and hopefully it will provide another reference point for your fantasy team selections.

GAMEWEEK 24 REVIEW

It was a great week for the Mr Crowd Wisdom, with 5 correct predictions beating the community average of just 3.98.  That included two Exact Score picks and two Close picks, resulting in green arrows on the global leaderboard.

GAMEWEEK 25 PREVIEW

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in GW25:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

With a double gameweek, Man City are far and away at the top of the predicted goals chart. City are expected to score two more goals than the next highest team. If anyone knew which players would start both games, they’d be the ideal captain choice!

Despite two home matches Everton are only third in predicted goals, with Chelsea ahead of them thanks to their home tie with Huddersfield.

In defence, Chelsea appear likely to keep a clean sheet, with Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Burnley offering the budget-friendly defender options.

Here are the picks we’ll enter for Mr Crowd Wisdom this week.

Tottenham 2 – 1 Newcastle
Brighton 1 – 1 Watford
Burnley 1 – 1 Southampton
Chelsea 2 – 0 Huddersfield
Crystal Palace 2 – 1 Fulham
Everton 1 – 1 Wolves
Cardiff 1 – 2 Bournemouth
Leicester 1 – 2 Man United
Man City 2 – 1 Arsenal
West Ham 1 – 2 Liverpool
Everton 1 – 2 Man City

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16 Comments Post a Comment
  1. FredrikH
    • 7 Years
    6 months, 18 days ago

    Fab just got flagged.

    1. JabbaWookiee
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 18 days ago

      Saw that. Arm injury? Worrying as I have a on-playing second goalie...

    2. Bald Eagle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      6 months, 18 days ago

      He's flagged the whole day.

  2. Pompel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    6 months, 18 days ago

    A lot of 2-1's. Normally, there will also be a couple of more clean sheets than the crowd thinks

    1. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 9 Years
      6 months, 17 days ago

      The crowd isn't predicting the number of clean sheets.
      It's predicting the most likely score in each individual match.

  3. King Kohli
    • 6 Years
    6 months, 18 days ago

    How much is a free hit worth?

    Would you FH for gw 27, if you had this team for gw 26?

    Ryan* Button*
    Robbo TAA Doherty Bednarek Bennett
    Salah Sterling* Pogba Sane* Son
    Rashford Ings Kamara*

  4. tisza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    6 months, 18 days ago

    time to spend the Kane money

    Digne/Hazard/Gunnar to Sterling/Sane/Bednarek

    or

    Digne/Ings/Hazard to Sterling/Kun/Peltier (Peltier 3rd sub anyway)

    1. danishdynamite
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 months, 18 days ago

      I've gone Sterling / Kun...... Lower ownership = greater differential

  5. El Lobito
    • 2 Years
    6 months, 18 days ago

    A. Sterling captain
    B. Sane captain

    And why?

    1. Benteke Fried Chicken
      6 months, 18 days ago

      i have gone sterling. seems like the chances of an explosion may be higher with him.

  6. Disturbed
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    6 months, 18 days ago

    Play Patricio or McCarthy?

  7. Mr.K
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    6 months, 18 days ago

    a) Lingard & Hazard -> De Bruyne & Sigurdsson
    b) Rashford & Hazard -> Aguero & Sigurdsson
    c) What is this Siggy nonsense?

    Have two FT's and only Rich and Ederson (and Digne) from the DGW teams so I could do something about it but not sure how to proceed. Could recover for the blank by switching Aguero or KDB (depending on the performances) or Rich (but probably not) back to someone else. I do think DGW's are a bit overrated but at the same time I don't feel extremely confident about Lingard/Haz/Rash either so I dunno I dunno!

  8. arch1m0nd3
    • 1 Year
    6 months, 18 days ago

    Any thoughts on this ?

    Bench 1 :
    Duffy AWB Doherty Holebas

  9. Reedy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 months, 18 days ago

    Thanks again for this.

    As someone with no City, I'd just about take those scorelines.

    The Bookies take a more sanguine view; they think City are out for blood. But City haven't been themselves lately, and big teams often underperform in DGWs.

  10. Monkey Hanger
    • 6 Years
    6 months, 18 days ago

    Sarri says he is going to stick with the same tactics until his players play them well.

    Stubborn or what.

    1. Flaming Flamingo
      • 3 Years
      6 months, 18 days ago

      I'd be more worried if he decided to abandon his philosophy, to be honest.