Spot the Differential

Jesus allows FPL managers to exploit Aguero absence

Differentials continue to be the bedrock of success for Fantasy Premier League managers in 2019/20.

Even though Gameweek 14 saw the popular players deliver, the top three FPL points scorers of the round each had ownership of 3% or less.

It was also nice to see the column’s picks of Danny Ings (£6.1m) and Alexandre Lacazette (£9.3m) also joining in on the fun with more goals.

It just goes to shows that there is value still to be found in unexpected places. 

With that in mind, here are three differentials worth thinking about for Gameweek 14.

Gabriel Jesus

Aguero’s absence could unlock Jesus’ potential as a Fantasy asset

Price: £9.5m

Ownership: 1.9% 

GW14 Opponent: Newcastle United (away)

It’s not very often that Fantasy managers are treated to a striker priced at less than £10M becomes a credible starting option for the Premier League’s reigning champions. 

But with Sergio Aguero (£11.9m) out injured for a few games, the door into our teams looks to have been opened for Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m). 

The Brazilian has only scored three league goals this season and for the most part, he’s just made cameo substitute appearances but when he has played, he has delivered.

Jesus has started four matches this season and has attacking returns in each of them, while four of his five goal involvements in 2019/20 have come away from home. Both of those statistics bode well for Gameweeks 14 and 15 when Manchester City are on the road without Aguero, against Newcastle and Burnley.

The Magpies are without a clean sheet since Gameweek 8 while Burnley have so far conceded seven goals at home to opposition from last season’s top-six.

Some Fantasy managers might be put off by the fact that Jesus has only scored 10 times in his last 37 league appearances. However, he has still registered a Fantasy attacking return every 99 minutes during the same period. 

It certainly shows that Jesus has made the most of his limited game time.

Dele Alli 

Alli could seriously benefit from Mourinho’s arrival at Spurs

Price: £8.4m

Ownership: 1.4%

GW14 Opponent: Bournemouth (home)

Dele Alli (£8.4m) has made a fantastic start to life under Jose Mourinho at Tottenham Hotspur and can be a fantastic differential option moving forward.

Without a start in the first eight Gameweeks, the England international regained his regular spot in the team in Gameweek 9, before Mauricio Pochettino left, and since then he has three attacking returns in the Premier League.

Mourinho’s arrival has already had an impact on Spurs as Gameweek 13 saw them record a first away league win of the campaign with three goals in one match for the first time since September.

He then oversaw a dramatic comeback 4-2 win over Olympiakos on Tuesday night.

One of the players to have stood out in each of these matches was Alli who registered an assist against West Ham and scored Spurs’ first goal in the Champions League.

While we don’t have too much relevant data available just yet, and the likes of James Maddison (£7.6m) and Christian Pulisic (£7.5m) are currently cheaper, getting in on Alli now could be a rewarding move.

Tottenham as a whole, including Alli, have the potential to be reinvigorated under Mourinho for the foreseeable future, especially when considering they must get back to winning ways if they are to finish in a respectable position come May. 

Alli himself has been deployed in a number 10 role and, thus far, has looked comfortable and dangerous.

Tottenham have scored almost two goals per home league match this season and in Gameweek 14 host a Bournemouth team with just one clean sheet on the road in 2019/20.

Danny Ings 

Danny Ings cannot stop scoring but is still owned by less than 5%

Price: £6.1m

Ownership: 4.2%

GW14 Opponent: Watford (away)

We might sound like a broken record recommending Ings for a second week running but it’s hard to ignore him when he’s scoring goals. 

That said, the wider public are doing their best to overlook him because despite his recent form still just 4.2% own the Southampton striker.

Among all forwards over the last six Gameweeks, only Jamie Vardy (£9.7m) scored more goals than Ings. 

Players such as Teemu Pukki (£6.6m), Callum Wilson (£7.7m) and Diogo Jota (£6.1m) have had far more touches in the penalty box than Ings and yet, since Gameweek 8 they’ve all failed to score while the former Burnley man has found the net four times.

It just goes to show that Ings hasn’t been wasteful with his limited goal-scoring opportunities of late and is even capable of scoring away from home at Arsenal and Manchester City.

Right now, there isn’t another striker in the same price bracket displaying the same kind of form as him.

Having said that, Southampton have only won two league game this season and it’s not a huge surprise that they’re currently found in 19th place on the back of pretty derisory home form. 

On the plus side, it’s clear that when they do score Ings’ has an important part to play – he has been their main forward driving outlet. 

After all, he has been involved with 54% of the Saints’ league goals since August. 

They now have a good run of upcoming games that they simply must win to avoid a relegation dog fight from the New Year. 

Up first is a Watford team currently short of some key defensive personnel. Craig Dawson (£4.8m), Christian Kabasele (£4.3m), Sebastian Prödl (£4.0m) and Daryl Janmaat (£4.4m) are all injured for Gameweek 14.

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2,503 Comments Post a Comment
  1. FPLYuval
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    nice and dull one for you all

    who to bench: lord lundy or kelly

    I do have Jimenez so leaning towards Kelly at the mo.

    1. Tshelby
      • 5 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Kelly 100% no doubt imo

    2. how now brown cow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Kelly

    3. Stimps
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      The one who is not Lord

  2. TeddiPonza
    • 10 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Have 8,8m to replace Tammy. Best option?

    A. Ings
    B. Rash
    C. Someone else.

    1. how now brown cow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      B

    2. Stef rocks
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      If onlu for that GW B, otherwise A - much better fixtures

    3. SHOOTER MCGINN
      • 5 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Thinking B myself, or Jimmy

  3. andres
    • 9 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    A tammy to ings
    B kdb, tammy to kane, pulisic (-4)
    C kdb, tammy to jesus, pulisic (-4)

    1. how now brown cow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      A

    2. jayzico
      • 9 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      I'd get kane and pulisic but not at kdb's expense

      1. andres
        • 9 Years
        10 months, 25 days ago

        Well i already have son... there is no other way. I also feel i need pulisic in.

        Can always get kdb back in a couple of gws... or maybe sterling is the man later once we see the city without aguero

    3. Stef rocks
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      A

  4. Bucket Man
    • 2 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Is keeping WC till gameweek 19 important. Niggling feeling now is a good time to play it.
    Can get this
    Henderson
    TAA, Soyuncu, Lundstram, Tomori, Taylor
    Mane, KDB, Pulisic, Zaha, Traore
    Kane, Vardy, Mousset

    1. King Didier
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Good team. No changes really needed.

      1. Bucket Man
        • 2 Years
        10 months, 25 days ago

        That would be my WC
        On this now
        Heaton
        TAA, Soyuncu, Lundstram, Tomori
        Mane, KDB, Son, Mount, Cantwell
        Vardy
        Connolly, Rico, Abraham

  5. how now brown cow
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    A - bench tammy, play dendonker
    B - sell tammy, get ings
    C - bench tammy, sell saiss for taylor and play him

    1. BobbyDoesNotLook
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      same situation. I am likely doing b to then upgrade next Greenwood to Mousset.

    2. Joey Barton and Friends
      • 9 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      I am tempted to to get Ings as good chance Tammy will miss next GW too

  6. Woy_is_back
    • 3 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    bump

    Mount to Pulisic and Abe to Ings/Mousset/Ayew

    or just the second one

  7. TONY123
    • 5 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Jesus is a massive trap. There I said it.

    1. Tshelby
      • 5 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Batshuasyi is!

    2. Trophé Mourinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Lip stick pink bear trap on a well lit street where there’s no phone coverage?

  8. JBG
    • 2 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Try again since last post got lost in the sea of other post.

    RMWCT please:

    Henderson-Button
    Robbo-Chilwell-Tomori-Lund-Williams
    Mane-Son-Martial-Mount-Dendo
    Jimenez-Rashford-Vardy

    0.4 left itb.

  9. Super Jack Grealish
    • 8 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Any opinions on what to do with this mess then?

    Gaz, Button
    TAA, Lundy, Soyuncu, Tomori, Rico
    Sterling, Mane, KDB, Mount, Barnes
    Vardy, Tammy, Connolly

    2FT 0.1 ITB

    A) Tammy > Jiménez
    B) Sterling + Tammy > Son + Jesus
    C) Sterling + Tammy > Maddison + Kane
    D) Barnes/Mount + Tammy > Maddison/Pulisic + Ings

    1. GreennRed
      • 9 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Sterling and Abrahams to Son and Jimenez.

    2. jayzico
      • 9 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      C. Easy

    3. FPLYuval
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Sterling & Tammy > Son and Jimenez

  10. Rhodes your boat
    • 4 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Think I’m going to do sterling to son.. but do I...

    A) do Hayden to pulisic for -4
    B) play rico then bring in Cahill next gameweek to cover likely Tammy absence

    1. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 1 Year
      10 months, 25 days ago

      A

  11. lilmessipran
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Any suggestions for this lot, which option looks better -

    Pope 4.0
    Taa Soy Lund (Rico Boly)
    Raz KDB Mane Martial (Nakamba)
    Vardy Tammy ( Mousset)

    2 FT 0 itb..
    A Raz + Tammy to Jiminez + Salah
    B Raz + Boly to Son + Robbo

    1. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 1 Year
      10 months, 25 days ago

      A

  12. Pep Roulette
    • 3 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    A. Djenepo & Schmeichel
    B. Perez & Gazzaniga

    1. TheDragon
      • 2 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      B

  13. TheDragon
    • 2 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    With the mass Tammy exodus on here... if he is back next GW won’t you all want him straight back?

    1. TONY123
      • 5 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Not worth taking the risk though, he could easily look at multiple GW's out (and it's looking like that tbh), not worth keeping him on the bench for all that time while other great options in that price bracket rack up the points and you're forced to take Dendoncker's or Kelly's 1-2 pointers every week.

    2. pumpkinhead
      • 5 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      3 games in 7 days - Don't think Lamps will want to risk it.

  14. Richard Richard (AKA: Anzhi…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Fairly simple...
    A. Abraham to Ings (-4)
    B. Wait. Play both Soy and Lundstram. Weak bench.

    1. TheDragon
      • 2 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Would you do A in your situation if it wasn’t a -4?

      I think it has to be B for you (due to the -4 in A)

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 1 Year
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Easily B

    3. BobbyDoesNotLook
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Is that a weak bench? What is a bench of Rico, Greenwood and Dendo then when I have injured Janmaat and Abraham on the XI currently?

      1. fusen
        • 8 Years
        10 months, 25 days ago

        very weak

        1. BobbyDoesNotLook
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          10 months, 25 days ago

          yep 😀

  15. SHOWSTOPPERRR
    • 2 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Bottomed..
    Abraham injury is making so many options with 2ft guys pick one option

    A) abraham sterling to Jimenez mane for free
    B) Abraham sterling to Ings Mane for free and save come cash
    C) auba Abraham sterling to Jimenez mane kane for -4

    Thanksssssssss

    1. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 1 Year
      10 months, 25 days ago

      A

  16. aapoman
    • 6 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Is it suicide not to have Vardy?

    1. pumpkinhead
      • 5 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      It was like 4 gameweeks ago

    2. GreennRed
      • 9 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      No. Suicide is when you kill yourself. Makes it difficult to win your ML.

    3. Pukki Blinders
      • 1 Year
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Yup, just brought him in this week couldn't bare it anymore

  17. FOO FIGHTER
    • 1 Year
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Is it worth getting shot of Tammy unless knowing the full details of his situation?

    1. GreennRed
      • 9 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Depends who you replace him with and for hit or not.

  18. Lukakuna
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    How has KDB looked in the last couple of matches? Is he still sitting kinda deep protecting the back four?

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 1 Year
      10 months, 25 days ago

      I do not own any City assets but the have all regressed.

    2. Bobby Digital
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Made some runs into the box...

  19. FirminoIsBetterThanYou
    • 3 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Bottomed: Tammy & McGinn -> Jimenez & Maddison for a hit?

  20. Bruce Lee
    • 2 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    0 spurs gang way

  21. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Cantwell to Perez for -4?

    Benching Tammy

  22. King Didier
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Gazza
    TAA, Lund,Tomori, Soy
    Mane, Martial, Maddison
    Auba, Abraham, Vardy

    Foster, Traore, Dendoncker, Targett

    Who to Captain and who to replace Abraham with?

  23. sunzip14
    • 3 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Tammy surely dropping in price tonight? already on -89, will lose .1 despite having a FT if he does.

  24. Liastro ⭐️
    • 8 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Would you keep Mount or move to Pulisic using FT?

    1. FPLYuval
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      keep for this gwk

  25. unitednations
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Right, so best use of 2ft and 0m

    Pope — Heaton
    Taa Lundstram Tomori —- Rico lascelles
    Sterling Kdb Mount martial — cantwell
    Rashford Abraham Vardy

    A: Sterling + Tammy >> Mane + Jimenez
    B: Sterling + Lascelles >> Mane + Kelly
    C: Mount + Tammy >> Pulisic + Ings
    D: Something else...don’t mind taking a hit.

  26. pablo discobar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Going to bench Abraham as can afford the.1 drop. Got him at 7.1

    Do I start Grealish or Lundy?

    Thanks

    1. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 1 Year
      10 months, 25 days ago

      grealish

    2. Stef rocks
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Hard one but probably Graelish - ManU are leaky

  27. tibollom
    • 4 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    sterling and tammy to son and laca?

    Heaton Button
    TAA Rico Luds Dunks Chilwell
    Mane KDB Sterling MCGin Dedonck
    Tammy Vardy Greenwood

  28. Tshelby
    • 5 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Tammy and Mount -> Pulisic and Ings (-4)?

    1. TheDragon
      • 2 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      ‘Surely’ Mount starts.

      I’d just do Tammy -> Ings this week

  29. AF90
    • 8 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Lowton, Sterling, Wesley, Abraham -> Tomori, Pulisic, Jimenez, Kane -12?

    1. pumpkinhead
      • 5 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Da F?

      1. FPLYuval
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        10 months, 25 days ago

        this

  30. Debauchy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Same questions over and over again , if you're looking for answers who outscores who in a single GW well your guess is as good as any on here, Longer term you may get better input of course., but rather go gut and reap the rewards or die knowing it was your decision ,

    1. pumpkinhead
      • 5 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      k

      1. Debauchy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        10 months, 25 days ago

        Happy to be of assistance mate