Spot the Differential

Doherty hinting at return to incredible debut season form

Differentials had a lot of success once again in Gameweek 21, so Fantasy Premier League managers need to keep an eye out for these sorts of options.

Of the eleven players who scored over 10 points last time out, seven had ownership of 5% or less.

The likes of Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m), Gerard Deulofeu (£6.1m) and César Azpilicueta (£5.8m) all hit double-digit hauls, confirming there is still time to find some hidden gems.

In his last Spot the Differential article, FPL Hints suggested James Tomkins (£5.0m) was due another goal, and right on cue, he delivered in Gameweek 20, heading Luka Milivojevic’s (£6.7m) delivery into the net via the underside of the crossbar.

I’ve had a bit of success picking out differentials this season too, including Jack Grealish (£6.4m) back in October, and more recently Ismaïla Sarr (£6.2m).

Let’s see if I can follow it up, so here are three low-owned picks worth considering for Gameweek 22 and beyond.

Matt Doherty

FPL ownership: 4.9%

Price: £6.1m

GW22-26 fixtures: NEW | sou | LIV | mun | LEI

Matt Doherty (£6.1m), is a player I’ve liked as a differential for quite some time.

Having tipped him on the Scoutcast back in November, and here, the Irishman has since returned in three of Wolverhampton Wanderers last four home games, including one double-digit haul.

In fact, out of the 10 league games he’s played at Molineux this season, he’s provided returns in six of them.

Whilst Wolves have suffered back-to-back league defeats, they head into Gameweek 22 level on points with sixth-placed Tottenham Hotspur and only a point behind Manchester United, who they restricted to no shots on target in last weekend’s FA Cup goalless draw.

The underlying stats further highlight Doherty’s appeal.

He’s taken more shots (seven) and importantly, more shots in the box (seven) than any other defender over the last four Gameweeks, whilst his four Big Chances over the same period is bettered by only Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m) and Sadio Mané (£12.3m).

Up next for Wolves is Newcastle United, who have a poor defensive record on the road, conceding 21 away goals, second only to Aston Villa’s 23.

In terms of their attack, their forwards have just three goals between them this season, and are often having to rely on their defenders to bail them out.

This is a team low on confidence, with the lowest possession figure in the league, who have lost their last three league games.

Doherty can take advantage of those weaknesses, and could be a nice differential going forward.

Pablo Fornals

FPL ownership: 0.5%

Price: £6.0m

GW22-26 fixtures: shu | EVE | lei + LIV | BHA | mci

After a difficult start, Pablo Fornals (£6.0m) has been one of West Ham United’s best players in recent weeks.

Slowly but surely, the Spanish midfielder is beginning to show the level of performance many fans expected, delivering one goal and three assists in his last seven games.

Looking at data from the last two Gameweeks, only five midfielders have taken more shots in the box, which suggests further returns could be on the way.

The question is, can we trust the Hammers?

Generally, they have not been great in attack, and have struggled defensively this season, but David Moyes has been hired to try and fix these issues, and early signs are fairly positive after back to back wins over Bournemouth and Gillingham.

The real appeal, however, lies in their forthcoming Double Gameweek.

Taking their Gameweek 24 fixtures in isolation (lei, LIV), West Ham assets don’t look too appealing, but with home ties against Everton and Brighton & Hove Albion positioned either side, Fornals could be an intriguing option.

Available for just £6.0m, Fornals is coming into form at just the right time, and could be an effective differential for the crucial Double Gameweek.

Sead Kolašinac

FPL ownership: 0.6%

Price: £5.2m

GW22-26 fixtures: cry | SHU | che | bur | NEW

It is less than three weeks since Mikel Arteta took over at Arsenal but we are already starting to see clear patterns of play.

On paper, Arsenal are using a 4-2-3-1, but in reality, it’s a 4-4-2 without the ball, transitioning into a 2-3-5 in possession.

The approach against Manchester United involved Sead Kolašinac (£5.2m) pushing forward on the overlap to become a fifth forward, with opposite full-back, Ainsley Maitland-Niles (£4.6m) performing a more traditional full-back role.

Kolašinac looked dangerous throughout, with his deflected cross finding Nicolas Pépé (£9.1m) for the opener, whilst continually providing an attacking outlet on the left.

The Bosnian sits somewhere between a full-back and a winger, who can sometimes be a liability defensively, so this overlapping role suits him well.

Defensively, Arsenal are still a work in progress, putting up mid-table expected numbers, but it’s worth noting only Liverpool, Southampton and Watford have conceded fewer goals since the change of manager.

Their opponents this week, Crystal Palace, look vulnerable.

Their 19 goals scored is the second-fewest in the top flight, with their attack, outside of Wilfried Zaha (£6.8m), lacking imagination.

Add to that an injury crisis, with captain Milivojević also suspended, and Kolašinac looks an ideal gamble for Gameweek 22, and possibly beyond.

Become a Member and access our data

Memberships for the rest of the 2019/20 campaign are now available for the discounted price of £9.99 or the monthly price of £2.99.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 150+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • Enjoy our brand NEW Flat-Track Bully feature which introduces an opposition filter to your tables.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

ALREADY A USER? CLICK HERE TO UPGRADE YOUR FREE ACCOUNT

NEW TO SCOUT? CLICK HERE TO START A MEMBERSHIP ACCOUNT

avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/11211/history | https://fplgeneral.com/articles/elite-64-manager-profile-tom-freeman/”

1,047 Comments Post a Comment
  1. john25
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 17 days ago

    Hey guys, does Begovic back mean Ramsdale is getting dropped soon?

    Cheers

    1. iL PiStOlErO
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Dont think so. They will sell Asmir, that story is done.

    2. iL PiStOlErO
        1 month, 17 days ago

        GTG?

        Rash for C or?

        Ramsdale
        TAA Soy Lund
        Salah KdB Alli Grealish
        Vardy Rash(C) Maupay

        Martin Dendo Dunk Kelly

        1,3 itb, 1ft

        1. luk46
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 17 days ago

          If you wanna catch, ok. Vardy or KDB are safer imo.

          1. iL PiStOlErO
              1 month, 17 days ago

              Who would you C? Kevin or Party?

              1. Kay317
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                1 month, 17 days ago

                Tough decision I think many will be struggling with. Vardy will be most captained so safer pick but KDB against villa is very tempting. I'm on KDB at the mo

                1. iL PiStOlErO
                    1 month, 17 days ago

                    I like Kev or Rash more then Vardy this week. Cheers mate

          2. The_Bucc
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Getting rid of Alli to fund Robertson for dgw.

            Jota and Pulisic injured.

            A) Neto
            B) Hudson-Odoi

          3. jnglizt
            • 9 Years
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Struggling with bench/bench order atm!

            Ramsdale
            TAA Soy Lund
            Cantwell Mane Salah KDB
            Maupay Jimi Vardy

            Bench: Grealish Cathcart Holgate

            Feel like I should play Grealish but thinking Cantwell & Maupay have better chances of returns vs their respective opponents! Any thoughts??

            1. Karan14
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 17 days ago

              Would start Grealish over Cantwell

              1. Kay317
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                1 month, 17 days ago

                This

            2. goldengove
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 17 days ago

              Almost identical team, and I have started Grealish with Cantwell first on bench

          4. Kalou
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Play one : A. Brandon williams
            B. Kelly

            1. iL PiStOlErO
                1 month, 17 days ago

                A

            2. Gunner Boy
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 17 days ago

              Kane >?

              A- DCL ( allows me to get Mane with Salah)
              B- Jiminez
              C- Someone else

              Current forward 8:

              Grealish Cantwell KDB Salah Traore
              Kane** DCL Vardy

              1. Gunner Boy
                • 5 Years
                1 month, 17 days ago

                Sorry Rashford instead of DCL

                1. Debauchy
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  1 month, 17 days ago

                  But who allows you to get Mane now?

              2. iL PiStOlErO
                  1 month, 17 days ago

                  A

                • Rhodes your boat
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 17 days ago

                  A

              3. Gentle_Turks
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 17 days ago

                2FT's but genuinely stuck what to do here. Any suggestions? Maybe Kelly out? Or downgrade Abraham to DCL to prepare for getting Mane in for 24?

                Ryan
                TAA, Lund. Rico
                Madd, Martial, Salah, KDB
                Abraham, Vardy, Rash
                (Button, Dendoncker, Kelly, Reid)

                1. Rhodes your boat
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 17 days ago

                  Abraham to dcl could work, good fixtures

                  1. Gentle_Turks
                    • 2 Years
                    1 month, 17 days ago

                    Yeah but Chelsea at home to Burnley is a nice fixture. On the other hand I'd prefer not to lose a transfer.

                2. Firefoxed
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 17 days ago

                  Wow what a team. I'd fix the bench if there was cash in the bank, otherwise Ryan to Fab looks good

                  1. Gentle_Turks
                    • 2 Years
                    1 month, 17 days ago

                    Thought about that but I like Brightons upcoming fixtures.

                3. Debauchy
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  1 month, 17 days ago

                  Kelly to Saiss and start if you can afford? Tammy out for DCL Gw 24

                  1. Gentle_Turks
                    • 2 Years
                    1 month, 17 days ago

                    Can do that. 1.1 itb. WOuld mean benching Rico or Lundstram this week though.

              4. Karan14
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 17 days ago

                For draft pick one:

                A) CHO
                B) Trossard
                C) F.Anderson

                1. iL PiStOlErO
                    1 month, 17 days ago

                    B

                  • claretparrot
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 1 Year
                    1 month, 17 days ago

                    C. The others will still be there if you need to change it up (unless your league is massive!?)

                2. clempro
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 17 days ago

                  Ali -> Sarr this week and Rashford -> DCL next to afford Richardlisson-> for GW 24. Thoughts?

                  Guaita Martin
                  TAA Lunstram Soyuncu Rico Kelly
                  Salah KDB Alli* Rich* Dendo
                  Vardy Ings Rashford
                  1 FT, 0.3 ITB

                  1. clempro
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 17 days ago

                    Richardlisson -> Mane ^^

                3. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
                  • 5 Years
                  1 month, 17 days ago

                  Save or? 0.6 itb, 1ft. Maybe sell Alli?

                  Henderson,Button
                  TAA,Rico,Lund,Soy, Kelly
                  Salah,Kdb,Alli,Grealish,Traore
                  Vardy,Jimenez,Deeney

                  1. Rhodes your boat
                    • 3 Years
                    1 month, 17 days ago

                    Like the Deeney punt good luck with it! I’d save ft

                  2. clempro
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 17 days ago

                    I'm downgrading to get Mane later on, I don't think he'll do anything this week anyway

                4. luk46
                  • 1 Year
                  1 month, 17 days ago

                  Did Grealish > Traore as I want Mane in soon! Feels so wrong to get rid of Jack tho...

                  1. iL PiStOlErO
                      1 month, 17 days ago

                      Bad move imo. Good luck

                    • Debauchy
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 7 Years
                      1 month, 17 days ago

                      Ha did that before Grealish haul. Bought Grealish back for Alli this week. Dunno mate

                  2. How I met your Mata
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 17 days ago

                    start Holgate or lundi??

                    1. how now brown cow
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 5 Years
                      1 month, 17 days ago

                      Lund surely

                    2. Debauchy
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 7 Years
                      1 month, 17 days ago

                      Lund fgs

                  3. Kalou
                    • 3 Years
                    1 month, 17 days ago

                    100 points off leader in ml.
                    Best captain?
                    A. Salah/Mane
                    B. Kdb
                    C. Rashford(no one owns him)

                    1. De Gea is GOAT
                      • 2 Years
                      1 month, 17 days ago

                      Also 100 pnts off. If Maddison is out i might go KDB.

                      1. Kay317
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        1 month, 17 days ago

                        Sounds like Maddison is fine, been training last 2 days

                        1. De Gea is GOAT
                          • 2 Years
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          Whens Rogers presser??

                          1. Kay317
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            Done already

                  4. SB8
                    • 1 Year
                    1 month, 17 days ago

                    Who scores more this weekend?
                    A) Rashford
                    B) Jimenez

                    1. RamaJama
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 7 Years
                      1 month, 17 days ago

                      A

                      1. Dynamic Duos
                        • 6 Years
                        1 month, 17 days ago

                        I'm (c) him

                    2. iL PiStOlErO
                        1 month, 17 days ago

                        Hopefully A

                        1. SB8
                          • 1 Year
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          He is still on pens, isn't he?

                          1. iL PiStOlErO
                              1 month, 17 days ago

                              Yes

                        2. NABIL - Gettin' Siggy …
                          • 7 Years
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          A easy

                      • Firefoxed
                        • 3 Years
                        1 month, 17 days ago

                        GTG? 1.2m ITB and 1FT

                        Ryan/ Button
                        TAA/ Soy/ Lund/ Rico/ Kelly
                        Alli/ KDB / Mane/ Martial / Cantwell
                        Vardy / Maupay / Rashford

                        1. CMJC
                          • 2 Years
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          Gtg - I’d only consider dropping Alli but saving transfer makes sense

                          1. Firefoxed
                            • 3 Years
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            me too, thinking of getting madison in. Then Martial and Rashford out for Salah and DCL for DGW. Not sure if i should save though

                      • CMJC
                        • 2 Years
                        1 month, 17 days ago

                        Play Soy or Holgate? I have Ings
                        Thanks

                        1. Debauchy
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 7 Years
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          Soy regardless of Ings

                          1. CMJC
                            • 2 Years
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            Cheers - what I was on. Can see both conceding anyway...

                      • tyron
                        • 4 Years
                        1 month, 17 days ago

                        how come no one seems worried about kdb positioning in his last fixture.. i am afraid to captain him. not sure i can watch him play another game as my captain and not leave the center circle

                        1. CMJC
                          • 2 Years
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          I really want to captain kdb but am also worried. Was more advanced against Man Utd at least...

                          1. tyron
                            • 4 Years
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            so what u thinking?

                        2. Debauchy
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 7 Years
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          Most are a little worried , hence my vc. But will get in the box regardless so go gut

                          1. tyron
                            • 4 Years
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            gut is mane lol

                            1. CMJC
                              • 2 Years
                              1 month, 17 days ago

                              Always go with your gut. Find it’s less upsetting when it doesn’t work out : )
                              I’m still undecided, but feel kdb has higher point potential against that villa defence.

                      • Flynny
                        • 4 Years
                        1 month, 17 days ago

                        Hi....any views on best option for next 2?

                        A.....Alli ....Liv / Watford

                        B....mahrez - 4 .... villa and palace

                        C....Richarlison - 4 ...Brighton and hammers

                        Thanks

                        1. aapoman
                          • 6 Years
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          C

                      • The Gobstopper
                        • 5 Years
                        1 month, 17 days ago

                        Is it madness to be considering Pepe as a differential punt? With cry, SHU, che, bur, NEW, EVE (and, after MCI, a pretty good run), he could come good...

                        1. NABIL - Gettin' Siggy …
                          • 7 Years
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          Yes

                          1. The Gobstopper
                            • 5 Years
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            Nice. I like a straightforward answer...

                        2. Debauchy
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 7 Years
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          Prefer to see a little more from Arsenal before a Pepe punt

                        3. Jordan.
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 10 Years
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          just get ozil

                        4. The Train Driver
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 4 Years
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          Should have been same price as Pulisic to even be considered

                        5. The Gobstopper
                          • 5 Years
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          Here's the crazy thing, though. Despite his "rocky" start, he's on 58 points, 19 more than any other Arsenal midfielder and 6 more than Lacazette (who, to be fair, has been injured). Sure, 58 points isn't great, but wondering if Arteta might be able to get even more out of him...

                        6. Arteta
                          • 4 Years
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          Nope, he's been on fire lately.

                      • aapoman
                        • 6 Years
                        1 month, 17 days ago

                        Aurier and Alli to
                        A. TAA and Grealish
                        or
                        B. TAA, Hayden and Ings (-4)

                        1. Stram Dunk
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          A

                        2. Debauchy
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 7 Years
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          Who you losing for Ings?

                          1. aapoman
                            • 6 Years
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            Greenwood

                      • ResultatFar
                        • 1 Year
                        1 month, 17 days ago

                        For draft, start Saiss or Fornals?

                      • NATSTER
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 9 Years
                        1 month, 17 days ago

                        Kane -> ?

                        A - Aguero
                        J - Jesus
                        R - Rashford

                        Mane - KDB - Maddi - Grealish - Cantwell
                        Vardy - Jimenez - ??

                        1. Jordan.
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 10 Years
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          aguero

                      • AMP
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 7 Years
                        1 month, 17 days ago

                        Hi

                        anyone considering Gomes as Liv assets?

                        I need cash to upgrade mids. Can still buy TAA but ...

                        1. iL PiStOlErO
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            He is ok for few weeks but not sure if longer then that...

                            1. AMP
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 7 Years
                              1 month, 17 days ago

                              aim is DGW of course

                        2. NABIL - Gettin' Siggy …
                          • 7 Years
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          Vardy salah mane kdb rash martial kun

                          A good week to play a differential captain. Rashy here most probably. How about you guys?

                          1. Debauchy
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 7 Years
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            No Rash , Kun if I had so its Vardy

                        3. SB8
                          • 1 Year
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          Any Martial(C) around? Good luck!

                          1. Debauchy
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 7 Years
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            Epic Fail in soon he will know

                        4. Stram Dunk
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          Choose 1 for GW24:

                          A) Kelly + Rash -> VVD + Ings
                          B) Kelly + Tammy -> VVD + Maupay

                        5. Tony Martial
                          • 1 Year
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          No one is fearful of KDB rotation/deep playing position ? I really want to captain him but fearful of this..

                          (C) Salah?

                          1. tyron
                            • 4 Years
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            i am more fearful of deep playing position than the rotation factor. i am also contemplating mane cap so cannot fault the salah pick

                          2. CMJC
                            • 2 Years
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            People are def a lil worried (see some comments above)

                        6. Luton_Fan
                          • 10 Years
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          Who would u rather have

                          DCL Or Maupay?

                          1. Pep Roulette
                            • 2 Years
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            Both are good options! But DCL imo!

                          2. Debauchy
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 7 Years
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            DCL

                        7. Slitherene
                          • 1 Year
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          (c) Rashford or KdB?

                          1. I Member
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 4 Years
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            KDB

                          2. Pep Roulette
                            • 2 Years
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            KDB

                        8. Pep Roulette
                          • 2 Years
                          1 month, 17 days ago

                          GTG?

                          Schmeichel
                          TAA B.Williams Lundy
                          Mane KDB(C) Martial Traore
                          Vardy Tammy DCL

                          Button Dendo Rico Kelly

                          1. Stram Dunk
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            GTG!

                          2. Debauchy
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 7 Years
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            Yep

                          3. Pep Roulette
                            • 2 Years
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            Thanks fam