Why FPL Managers Should Focus on Premium Forwards in 2020/21

With the discussion about premium midfielders filling the FPL community, it feels that the premium forwards have been overlooked. However, their ability and fixtures have high potential for FPL managers and I will provide an analysis on each of them below, focusing on stats, eye test and post-lockdown data.

Anthony Martial (£9m) – Manchester United

Opening Fixtures:

• Blank
• Crystal Palace (H)
• Brighton (A)
• Tottenham (H)
• Newcastle (A)
• Chelsea (H)
• Arsenal (H)
• Everton (A)

Anthony Martial finally seems set to fulfill the potential that made Manchester United break the transfer record for a teenager. Having endured hit-and-miss campaigns for the last few seasons, manager Ole Gunnar Solskjær gave him the #9 shirt at the start of the season and outlined his desire to rely on Martial as his main striker. Classified as a midfielder in FPL, the Frenchman repaid the faith with 17 goals, 9 assists and 200 points. What will really get FPL managers excited, though, is how 19/20 ended for the English side.

The signing of Bruno Fernandes (£10.5m) transformed United and he immediately struck up an excellent relationship with Martial, his pinpoint through balls accurately finding the pacey runs behind the defense. What’s more, with the return of a motivated Paul Pogba (£8m) after the restart the creativity in the side greatly increased and Anthony thrived. The stats are clear to see, in the 14 Premier League matches played since the Portuguese’s arrival Martial returned 9 goals and 6 assists, the 2nd highest number of goal contributions in the league – second only to Fernandes himself. Despite the fact that such incredible performance is likely to regress, it gives a clear indicator of the very high potential over an entire season.  This improvement is down to Solskjær’s excellent coaching for forwards – Erling Haaland another beneficiary – and his own increased discipline, an issue the talented forward had previously struggled with. Martial is also an excellent finisher, having outperformed his xG for the last three seasons. With Pogba and Fernandes supplying the chances, goals will come.

Contrary to popular opinion, Martial is a very consistent forward in FPL terms. He’s never gone more than three matches without a return, which means he’s an excellent “glue” player or, if you prefer, set and forget. A price of £9m looks like a bargain and at the end of the 20/21 season we could be considering this one of the best buys of the season.

United’s opening fixtures are mixed, three bottom half teams and five others that will be competing for Europe. However, three (Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal) of those teams will face the trip to Old Trafford, and it’s unclear how resolute we can expect their defenses to remain against a dangerous attack  – Arsenal and Chelsea were 15th and 10th for Big Chances conceded after the restart.

Timo Werner (£9.5m) – Chelsea

Opening Fixtures

• Brighton (A)
• Liverpool (H)
• West Brom (A)
• Crystal Palace (H)
• Southampton (H)
• Manchester United (A)
• Burnley (A)
• Sheffield United (H)

Roman Abromavich’s chequebook is finally out and Europe’s biggest talents are finding themselves joining the exciting project at Chelsea. The biggest transfer is arguably Timo Werner (£9.5m). The German forward at RB Leipzig found himself second in the Golden Boot race to Lewandowski with 28 goals and 8 assists in 34 matches. A world class player and a major upgrade on Abraham and Giroud, his addition to the league is a very enticing prospect for Fantasy managers.

Werner’s performances were no fluke, his underlying statistics are phenomenal. 3.8 Shots per 90, 1.9 Shots on Target per 90, an xG of 23.45, and 8.6 touches in the box per 90 are all elite numbers. He is also a strong finisher when on form, outperforming his xG by 6.47 and 4.55 in his last and first campaigns while underperforming by 0.57 and 1.38 in his other two seasons. Chelsea strikers had a total of 50 Big Chances over the entire season, with Abraham’s 9 Big Chances scored from 32 opportunities a key issue Lampard will have pinpointed. Werner will receive service and has the ability and pedigree to put them away.

It is also worth pointing out the increased creativity around Werner.  Hakim Ziyech (£8m) is the main creative threat, having achieved more than 10 assists in each of his last six seasons. His stats of 3.4 key passes per game are excellent numbers, and his displays for Ajax against Real Madrid, Juventus and Tottenham show this is no fluke. The highly talented and versatile Kai Havertz (£8.5m) has joined his compatriot at Chelsea, having impressed the world with his displays at Bayer Leverkusen. It seems likely he’ll take the #10 position directly behind Werner and push up as the forward drops off, creating a more familiar system for the star striker.

Chelsea’s fixtures look very appealing and with 40% ownership many managers have already put their trust in the forward. Concerns about team cohesion early are understandable, however it’s worth considering that Werner has been at the club for more than a month already and that Lampard managed to sidestep a similar issue when he took over last season with many new players.  In Lampard’s offensive system, with tons of creative talents providing service, it seems inevitable that Werner will make a mockery of his 9.5 price tag.

Jamie Vardy (£10m) – Leicester City

Opening Fixtures:

• West Brom (A)
• Burnley (H)
• Manchester City (A)
• West Ham (H)
• Aston Villa (H)
• Arsenal (A)
• Leeds (A)
• Wolves (H)

Last season’s Golden Boot winner has received a price hike and excellent fixtures. Under ‘striker whisperer’ manager Brendan Rodgers he thrived, hitting 23 goals and 7 assists on his way to highest FPL score since Leicester won the title. Jamie Vardy has become a much more well-rounded striker, able to play just as effectively on the shoulder as in a packed box. He also shows no signs of slowing down either, despite his increased age. So what is putting managers off him?

Leicester’s form and collapse in the second half of the 19/20 season is the main reason, with Vardy himself suffering a goal drought that seemed unthinkable when he was on his incredible streak. However, his injury and the birth of his child could have caused a decrease in performance. More significantly, Vardy’s stats after the restart were excellent, despite Leicester’s form. Of all forwards, he was highest for xGI and xG, second for Shots on Target and joint-third for Big Chances.

The fixtures are the most appealing part of the deal for the Englishman. Vardy has a fantastic record at the Hawthornes, and is likely to improve it when facing Bilic’s open and offensive side. His first three home fixtures look generous on paper, and away trips to City and Arsenal look less daunting when considering Jamie’s big game reputation – he scored at both grounds last season! The fact he’s well suited to the league appeals in the uncertainty of preseason, with his price also a convenient opportunity. An easy downgrade to Werner for those wishing to wait, or an upgrade to the explosive forward Sergio Aguero – perhaps after a convenient £0.5m found after swapping out a premium midfielder! At 16% ownership Vardy seems like a valuable differential for fantasy managers to exploit.

Harry Kane (£10.5m) – Tottenham Hotspur

Opening Fixtures:

• Everton (H)
• Southampton (A)
• Newcastle (H)
• Manchester United (A)
• West Ham (H)
• Burnley (A)
• Brighton (H)
• West Brom (A)

Before I begin, let’s address the two main issues with Harry Kane: Mourinho and dropping deep. Kane’s frustration with Spurs midfield constantly caused him to drop deep, witnessing the likes of Harry Winks and Moussa Sissoko attempt to compete in the midfield battle and fail to get the ball to him. Bamidele Alli was also deployed deeper and less able to support his compatriot. However, after the lockdown Kane looked much more offensive and like the shot monster of old, most significantly in the Arsenal and West Ham games. Importantly, the signing of Pierre-Emile Højbjerg adds much needed bite in the midfield positions and the ball winner that has been needed for two years. His presence will allow the likes of Giovani Lo Celso, Winks, Tanguy Ndombele and Alli to focus on creating for Kane, ensuring that we are see him in the box more often. Mourinho’s second season effect is well known, with his teams typically having very strong starts in those seasons. Here’s a look at how his strikers burst out of the block in those seasons.

Club’s Matches Played: 10
Inter Milan 2009/10: 14 Goals from Eto'(5), Milito (6), and Balotelli (3) in a two striker system
Real Madrid 2011/12: 13 Goals from Higauin (10) and Benzema (3)
Chelsea 2014/15: 10 Goals and 0 Assists from Diego Costa (Missed GW8-9)
Manchester United: 7 Goals and 3 Assists from Romelu Lukaku

The stats show that Mourinho’s strikers have done very well in similar conditions and Kane is unlikely to be the exception with his incredible quality. Post-lockdown gave us a useful preview, with Kane racking up the third highest xGI, joint-highest Big Chances, and 7 goals in 8 games to provide us with impressive numbers that should be carried into next season. As mentioned before, the increased creativity and movement provided by his midfield should assist Kane, as will the introduction of attacking wingback Matt Doherty (£6m) as a considerable upgrade on Serge Aurier. Spurs’ European travels may put potential suitors off, however Spurs are in the market for a backup striker and considering the efficiency of previous deals it seems unlikely that the star striker will be spending many minutes on foreign pitches. His generous fixtures are undoubtedly a huge part of his appeal and at £10.5m Kane is a very strong option for the opening weeks.

Sergio Aguero (£10.5m) – Manchester City

Opening Fixtures

• Blank
• Wolves (A)
• Leicester (H)
• Arsenal (H)
• Leeds (A)
• West Ham (A)
• Sheffield United (A)
• Liverpool (H)

Sergio Aguero is at his lowest price ever in FPL, having recorded his first campaign with less than 20 goals in 6 seasons due to missing the majority of the post-lockdown period with injury. His decreased price and 4.4% ownership – that is unlikely to increase significantly – presents a fantastic opportunity for those managers willing to take the gamble on the Argentine. The stats are clear and back up what we already know: 8.2 Points per 90, 4.7 Shots per 90, and a rate of 0.95 Goals per 90. However, as always, the risk is with Pep rotation. This is a double edged sword though, and it results in him being an incredible differential. The ultimate risk vs reward pick, his explosiveness means that having a route to him when he faces Leicester, Leeds, and West Ham could skyrocket owners up the ranks.

Thank you for reading; I hoped you gained more information and analysis for your FPL team. Good luck for the season!