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A great philosopher – or was it country and western legend Kenny Rogers – once wrote that ‘you’ve got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em’.
The point is that we’re only two weeks into the Premier League season and, while my Football Index portfolio is currently showing a modest profit, I’m trying to divine the time to cash in on certain players.
For the uninitiated, Football Index (FI) is a kind of stockmarket where people use real money to bet on footballers, with the value of these shares then going up or down based on market forces.
FI is, generally speaking, a game for the medium to long term, with mechanisms in place to discourage those looking to make a quick buck by selling players whose share price has moved sharply upwards not long after they’ve bought into them.
As a result, I’m having to exercise patience when it comes to selling my stake in a certain hat-trick scoring Everton player.
The Toffees have made a great start to the season, and they have a decent enough schedule to suggest there’s more to come.
But looking at the stats makes me think that my Everton man’s form is unsustainable. He’s scored four goals from eight attempts, whereas his strike partner has none from 12. Something’s got to give in that set-up, and I think it’s my player’s red hot form.
Time will tell, but with a resolute Crystal Palace defence to come next, it’s time that’s also dominating my thoughts – as in when is the right time to sell my Everton striker shares.
His sell price has yo-yoed all week, but I’m holding out for a decent profit to add to the 40p-per-share divided I’ve enjoyed, so I’ll probably be waiting until a lot later in the week when, hopefully, demand for him will ratchet up again.
Similarly, my Callum Wilson bet has brought in a few bob in dividends, but a woeful performance by Newcastle at the weekend has not done anything for his share price. Anything but plummet, that is.
If his sell price can shift closer to my original buy price then I’ll be tempted to move his shares on.
Otherwise, my bets are mainly long-term, which means I’ll probably have to watch Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s price drop below what I paid for him as a trip to Liverpool ushers in a nasty run of fixtures for the Gunners.
This Week I’ll Mostly Be Buying…
Someone or no-one, depending on how the market moves on the players mentioned above.
If I can take some value out of what I’ve already gambled on without taking a big hit because of low sell prices, then I’ll be considering betting on Southampton players.
Not the Saints defenders, you understand, as their manager’s current fetish for playing a high line is doing wonders… for oppositions teams’ goal difference.
But Danny Ings is scoring whatever the carnage at the other end of the pitch and his touch and finish for his first goal against Spurs were those of a man in sublime form.
Southampton have made an unholy mess of their start to this season, but their schedule is good. For a few more goals from Ings, at least.
The striker is currently available for around the £1.40 mark. And if rumours of a move to a ‘big club’ start up again as the transfer window starts shutting, then he could also bring in some media dividend as well.
For a real Saints punt, there’s midfielder James Ward-Prowse at £1.13.
Why? One of the mainstays of Fantasy Football Scout’s Members Area is Jonty’s ‘Goals Imminent’ table, and JWP is currently in it.
The stats version of ‘he’s definitely due one’, Goals Imminent normally works on data from the last four matches.
We’ve only had two so far, so everything needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, but Ward-Prowse has already registered five attempts this season, which is the same as Newcastle’s Wilson.
He’s scored 12 goals over the last two seasons and Southampton’s fixtures – especially an early October visit from West Brom – suggest he’ll be opening his 2020/21 account soon enough.
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FPL Lessons Learned from Gameweek 2
- Everton 5-2 West Bromwich Albion
- Leeds United 4-3 Fulham
- Manchester United 1-3 Crystal Palace
- Arsenal 2-1 West Ham United
- Southampton 2-5 Tottenham Hotspur
- Newcastle United 0-3 Brighton and Hove Albion
- Chelsea 0-2 Liverpool
- Leicester City 4-2 Burnley
- Aston Villa 1-0 Sheffield United
- Wolves 1-3 Manchester City
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