Pro Pundits - Simon

How holding on to your chips and transfers can lead to long-term FPL success

There is a lot of talk in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) community about the importance of patience and knowing when to act and when to wait is widely accepted as a crucial element of success.

But even a casual perusal of the desperate lamentations that echo across fantasy forums on a Saturday evening will illustrate that, while we fantasy managers often fail to act when we should, we very often act when we shouldn’t.

In fact, it’s very hard not to act, it feels good to act, especially after a bad Gameweek.

So why is patience such a virtue when it comes to fantasy football? What does science have to say about this? The answer might involve marshmallows.

The Marshmallow Experiment

Aside from perhaps the Stanford Prison and Milgram experiments (1971 & 1963 respectively), few psychological experiments have gained the notoriety of the Stanford Marshmallow Experiment (1972).

In this study, young children were sat in a room with a marshmallow placed in front of them and were told that they could eat the marshmallow now or, if they waited 15 minutes, they would be given a second marshmallow.

Inevitably, some of the children ate the first marshmallow while some avoided temptation long enough to receive the second marshmallow. And some of them just cried.

Salah benched as Matip returns for Liverpool's Palace visit

What was most interesting about the Marshmallow Experiment is that they followed up with the children 10 years later and found that those who had resisted eating the first marshmallow had largely scored better in their SATs, performed better in school generally and even had healthier BMIs.

While there is some debate as to why this correlation between the ability to delay gratification and these various measures of success should exist, it exists nonetheless.

Much like tomato ketchup and a certain Irish stout, good things come to those who wait.

While the results of the Marshmallow Experiment are still debated, the idea that there is a link between ability to delay gratification and improved prospects of success in humans has, for years, been supported by high profile and influential figures ranging from psychologist Jordan Peterson to motivational speaker Tony Robbins, both of whom, in fact, consider this ability to be among the most important indicators of success in both children and adults.

Applying the Theory to FPL

So can we as FPL managers learn anything from this?

Well, one very obvious parallel exists if you replace marshmallows with free transfers.

You can have two, but you have to avoid using the first one.

I’m a huge believer in saving the second transfer whenever possible and, while I’m not aware of any studies on the subject, I know that there is a fairly strong correlation between the success of my transfers, how well I’m doing in FPL generally and how often I’ve been able to carry a transfer.

The most obvious reason for why this might be is that, whereas with one transfer your options are limited to players within the same price bracket as the one you’re getting rid of, with two transfers you have far, far more options.

A second reason might be that waiting a gameweek to make two transfers instead of one per gameweek gives you more time to think and reduces the likelihood that you will make some sort of knee-jerk mistake that you end up regretting.

A similar principle could be applied to when you make your transfers. This season, perhaps more than any others, has shown the benefit of waiting as late as possible to make your changes.

It’s generally accepted that access to more, and more current information will typically improve decision quality and FPL is likely no exception.

Of course, being patient is easier said than done, especially off the back of a bad Gameweek where the temptation to make a change, any change, is huge.

Here, we might take a leaf out of the children of the Marshmallow Experiment’s book in that some, in an attempt to avoid temptation, simply put their hands over their eyes.

In an FPL context, this might mean avoiding looking at player prices or even spending too much time thinking about your next transfer until a day or two before the next Gameweek begins.

The principle of delaying gratification could equally apply to when you use your chips.

Serious FPL managers have long been distinguished by their tendency to keep their wildcards and chips until later in the season and, while it doesn’t always work out as intended, this approach confers all sorts of benefits including the opportunity to take advantage of Double Gameweeks, a typically higher team value to invest in players and more knowledge of who the best teams and players are.

Of course, there are also disadvantages to being patient.

Just as cautious cavemen in the Paleolithic Era were less likely to be eaten by sabre-tooth tigers, they were also less likely to find food themselves, particularly if they were too cautious.

The benefits of delaying action in FPL must always be weighed against the benefits of taking it and distinguishing which is the correct course and when, is and always has been a big part of the skill to this game.

However, knowing that a bias towards patience generally (be it natural or forced through will) is likely to produce better results overall, should be a positive step in the direction of making better and more deliberate FPL decisions.

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1,918 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Lindelol
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    "In fact, it’s very hard not to act, it feels good to act, especially after a bad Gameweek."

    So True.

    1. riot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      Massive facts

  2. Al-Chemy
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Worth taking a hit for a West ham defender?

    A) Dallas
    B) Cresswell (-4)

    1. JabariParkersEyelid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 28 days ago

      I'd want to keep hold of Dallas long term.

      1. Tshelby
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 28 days ago

        this

        1. Al-Chemy
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 28 days ago

          Cool, thanks for the advice both!

  3. SM001
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Is it worth playing BB with this team in DGW19. Played WC in GW16 to bring in these players for the DGW. Now with Leeds having only 1 fixture i'm not sure about playing it?

    Fabianski
    BUR (H), WBA (H)

    JustinSOU (H), CHE (H) / Cancelo CRY (H), AVL (H) / Alexander-Arnold MUN (H), BUR (H) / Cresswell BUR (H), WBA (H)

    Barnes SOU (H), CHE (H) / KDB CRY (H), AVL (H) / Fernandes LIV (A), FUL (A) / Soucek BUR (H), WBA (H)

    Watkins MCY (A), NEW (H) / Vardy SOU (H), CHE (H)

    BENCH
    Martínez MCI (A), NEW (H) / Bamford BHA (H) / Raphinha BHA (H) / Alioski BHA (H)

    1. boombaba
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      yes

    2. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      No need to mention the fixtures. Assume most here will know who has who. A cleaner post will mean people more likely to read & respond.

      I'd say the bench is okay, but could be worth a -4 to shift Raph/Ali to DGW-ers.

      1. boombaba
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 28 days ago

        your post below was far worse and you put it on every page

        1. Hazz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 28 days ago

          I posted it on one page. I also did some tidying.

          It's only the - 12s that make it messy.

          I'm only giving advice so more people respond in order to help the guy. What are you doing to help him?

          1. boombaba
            • 8 Years
            2 months, 28 days ago

            I answered his question with a nice clean answer 🙂

            1. Hazz
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              2 months, 28 days ago

              No reasoning given. At least I added some additional comments.

      2. SM001
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 28 days ago

        Thanks. I've already -4 transferring Son>KDB and DCL>Watkins. Would -12 be worth the hit to do what you suggested?

        Considering not playing BB now as the success/failure of it comes down to just 1 fixture; Leeds V BHA

        1. Hazz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 28 days ago

          Hmm -12 is heavy. Could work out. Maybe something like Alioski > Stones if funds permit.

          Think it's also sensible to avoid if you don't feel its right. Similar conundrum here.

          1. SM001
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 28 days ago

            Thing is if I hold off playing BB this week who's to say there will be a better time to play it in the future? I played my WC in GW16 specifically for this DGW. These players won't have many DGW left. Most future DGW players are not in my teal currently as they don't have the fixtures right now. If another DGW like this one comes up at the end of the season i'll have to take a major points hit to bring players in.
            Add to the fact that we don't know how Covid and teams playing in the latter stages of Europe/FA Cup will affect rotation.
            What a mess! LOL

  4. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Tricky deciding whether I want to BB or not...

    McCarthy
    ROBERTSON / CANCELO / COUFAL
    SALAH / FERNANDES / Son / SOUCEK / Raphinha
    VARDY / Bamford

    Forster // TAYLOR* / Calvert-Lewin* / Alioski

    Do Not Play BB:
    A) DCL > Cavani (bench Raphinha)
    B) DCL > Antonio. (bench Raphinha)
    C) Alioski > Dias (bench Raphinha)

    Play BB:
    C) Forster/DCL > Martinez/Antonio (-4)
    D) Forster/DCL > [4.5 GK]*/Cavani (-4)

    E) Forster/DCL/Alioski > Martinez/Antonio/Stones (-8)

    F) Forster/DCL/Raphinha/Alioski > [4.5 GK]*/Antonio/Foden/Stones (-12) & play BB

    G) Forster/DCL/Raphinha/Alioski > Martinez/Antonio/Gundogan/Stones (-12) & play BB

    1. KAPTAIN KANE
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      B for me

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 28 days ago

        Thanks. Given Taylor is bound to miss WHU now at the very least, BB seems counterproductive for the hits needed.

    2. JabariParkersEyelid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 28 days ago

      I like c, not playing BB

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 28 days ago

        I realised I was 0.2m short, silly me. Stones would be the other option!

    3. Sterling Malory
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      I would never take a (-12) personally.

      E, looks solid.

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 28 days ago

        Thanks. Now Taylor likely to miss WHU, all it needs is Raph to blank to feel like a wasted BB. I may avoid it after all.

  5. KAPTAIN KANE
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Would you change anything?

    McCarthy*
    Cancelo | Stones | Cresswell
    KdB (TC) | Bruno | Grealish | Soucek | Son*
    Antonio | Kane

    Steer* | Bamford* | Dallas* | Mitchell*

    *Non DGW or won’t play.

    -4 proposed:
    DCL & Lowton to Antonio & Cresswell

    Thanks

    1. KAPTAIN KANE
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      Alternatively could lose Mitchell instead of Lowton and get Coufal instead of Cresswell

      1. aleksaa2
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 28 days ago

        I wouldn't, starter at 3.9 is the best enabler you can have.

        1. KAPTAIN KANE
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 28 days ago

          Thanks, agreed.

    2. JabariParkersEyelid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 28 days ago

      I like it.

      1. KAPTAIN KANE
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 28 days ago

        Thanks

    3. aleksaa2
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      I'd take a hit for that. Obvious potential problem is no Salah, but you know that already.

      1. KAPTAIN KANE
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 28 days ago

        Yup, just not willing to lose Son (especially for a -4).

        Thanks

    4. TimoTime
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 28 days ago

      Confident that KDB won't get a rest?

      I want to throw the TC on him as well but the fact he was apparently too tired to even take a pen the other night is worrying...

      1. KAPTAIN KANE
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 28 days ago

        Is that really true? He was too tired to take a penalty?

        In my honest opinion, if fatigue was an issue he wouldn’t keep playing 90, considering how important he is to them.

        1. TimoTime
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 28 days ago

          That's what I heard on here was the reason Sterling stepped up to take the spot kick...

          Not sure what to make of it but it has put me off a bit

          1. KAPTAIN KANE
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 28 days ago

            Hmm I’m sceptical, I’d suspect Sterling just asked if he could take it.

          2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            2 months, 28 days ago

            I once heard on here that Timo Werner was essential, that Man Utd were crap, that Vardy was too old to score points, that Bruno’s XG & XA meant he was to be avoided, that Son can’t keep scoring, that Kai Havertz was the second coming of Christ himself...

            Most of what you will hear on here will have a very high manure content

            1. TimoTime
              • 1 Year
              2 months, 28 days ago

              Agreed, who knows.

              Here is Pep's comment though on KDB:

              "He was struggling in the last 15 minutes because he was exhausted. I like the guys who take the responsibility for the penalty. It was Raz and next time it will be better."

          3. C_Manan
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 28 days ago

            Maybe KDBs assist bonus is more than his goal bonus

  6. b91jh
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Different A and B this is:

    A) Get KDB and play 11 (by sacrificing Kane)
    B) No KDB and play BB (Button->Johnstone, KWP, RJames, DCL->Antonio)
    C) Option B plus KWP to Cancelo/Stones for one more hit

    Thoughts?

  7. Tshelby
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    G2g? Not using my BB chip.

    Martinez
    Stones, Dias, Chilwell, Coufal
    Soucek, Salah, KdB, Bruno, Grealish
    Antonio

    Bamford, Alioski, Adams

    1. CRO KLOPP
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      GTG,Nice team
      Who is your captain?

      1. Tshelby
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 28 days ago

        Thinking about KdB? Seems the most obvious choice?

        1. CRO KLOPP
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 28 days ago

          Yes he is,him or Salah from your team
          GL

          1. Tshelby
            • 6 Years
            2 months, 28 days ago

            Yeah? Would love to make Salah captain but don't know with the ManU game

    2. waltzingmatildas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      Looks very good

    3. JabariParkersEyelid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 28 days ago

      Looks great.

  8. Tabbara
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Thoughts on :
    Balbuena, Adams and Son to Chilwell, Grealish and Antonio (-8)
    Playing BB
    thx

    1. Tshelby
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      No for me

    2. waltzingmatildas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      No

  9. Distinctly Average
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    A: DCL, Lookman, Balbuena > Antonio, Foden, Coufal (-8)
    B: DCL, Lookman, Valbuena > Brewster, Foden, Cancelo (-8)
    C: Grealish, Lookman > Foden, Soucek (-4)
    D: Balbuena > Stones
    E: Grealish > Foden

    1. waltzingmatildas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      Hmm, probably B

    2. Tshelby
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      D

  10. waltzingmatildas
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Would you BB this?

    Johnstone
    Cancelo Robbo Coufal Taylor
    Salah KDB Bruno Soucek
    Antonio Wood
    (McCarthy Bamford Dallas Raphina)

    1. boombaba
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      yes

  11. offspinnersinahurry
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Can anyone please suggest the best 4.3 or below defender for double game week 19?

  12. Free Hat
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    I just want a marshmellow right now

  13. Original - Wolves Ay We
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Even if Spurs v Wycombe is cancelled, there's no way Spurs will have a double anytime soon. Right??

    1. aleksaa2
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      They can't play against anyone.

      1. Original - Wolves Ay We
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 28 days ago

        That's right Villa already have a re-arranged match Round 4 GW

  14. Nice Baps.
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    BB or FH? It's doing my head in, but tempted by the BB and go against the grain regarding LIV. DGWs never turn out like you expect anyway.

    Can do the BB following for -4 (but no LIV, Vardy, CHE nor Bruno) 13 DGW + Son, Kane

    Martinez + other DGW goalie
    Cancelo, Dias, Justin, Coufal, Lowton
    Rashford, KDB (c), Grealish, Lookman, Son
    Antonio, Kane, Wilson

    **** or ****

    or a FH that does include Salah, KDB, Bruno, Vardy but no TOT

  15. Munchen KFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Gotta love all the articles Simon submits. Keep them coming,

  16. dsefton
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    DDG Areola
    Cancelo Stones Coufal Lowton (Tierney --> Cresswell?)
    KdB Bruno Rashford Soucek (Son --> Salah?)
    Wilson (Laca --> Antonio?) Bamford

    Assuming Tierney is out:
    A) Son + Laca + Tierney --> Salah + Antonio + Cresswell (-8)
    B) Laca + Tierney --> Vardy + 4.6m def (-4)
    C) Tierney --> Cresswell (FT)
    D) Something else?

    1. Rog.
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      I like A

      1. dsefton
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 28 days ago

        thanks! just realised A would mean 4 west ham! - would you still do A but with Watkins instead of Antonio?

        1. Rog.
          • 9 Years
          2 months, 28 days ago

          I would yeah

    2. puhd
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      A

  17. Rog.
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Soton v Leeds fixture messed me up.

    Would you:

    A) BB McCarthy, Bamford, Dallas, Bednarek
    B) BB but Bednarek to Shaw (-4)
    C) Tc Salah

    Tia

    1. upforgrabs
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      C

    2. Effe
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      A

    3. Rog.
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      Thanks both, will rule out B.

  18. davies
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Would you do this for -4?

    Raphinha + Balbuena > Soucek + Holding

    1. puhd
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      Yes, Soucek will pay off

  19. Johnny too hotty
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Would you guys play BB here and is my side looking ok?

    martini*
    maguire* dias* Chilwell* Coufal*
    KDB* Salah* Bruno* Grealish*
    Antonio* Bamford

    Adams, Dallas, Bissouma, Blank

    1. puhd
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      It's good. Don't BB.

    2. aleksaa2
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      Depends on which martini.

  20. TimoTime
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Watkins or Antonio for 19?

    1. puhd
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      Antonio

    2. Effe
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      Antonio

    3. Nice Baps.
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      Watkins for longer term, Antonio if FH

  21. puhd
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    GTG?

    Johnstone
    James Dias Coufal
    Salah(C) Soucek Bruno Son Grealish
    Vardy Bamford

    McCarthy, Dallas, Targett, Adams

  22. Effe
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Would you bench boost this lot?

    McCarthy LEI (A)
    Bamford BHA (H)
    Dallas BHA (H)
    Bissouma LEE (A)

    1. puhd
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      McCarthy

      1. puhd
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 28 days ago

        Sorry, reply fail. No, I wouldnt BB

    2. Rog.
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      I’m in a similar situation, it’s bamford on the bench that makes me uncomfortable.

      1. Rog.
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 28 days ago

        Reply fail sorry

    3. La Roja
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      Nay

  23. Rhodes your boat
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    best move here? 1FT 0.2itb

    Martinez (X2)
    Stones (X2) kwp holding
    Salah (X2) kdb (X2) Bruno (X2) son soucek (X2)
    Kane bamford

    Forster yedlin (X2) strujik davis (X2)

    1. puhd
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      Kane out for Vardy

  24. circusmonkey
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Good article, only the second comment on the actual article.

  25. Lukakwho
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    why is Antonio no longer an option?

    1. tafrère
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      Every West Ham fan is saying he's unfit...

      He'll probably play 120 mins max in GW19. So he's basically an injury prone single gameweeker...

      1. Original Pirate Material
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 28 days ago

        This.

    2. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      He is A good option

  26. GS456
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Son & Kane > KDB & Vardy for a hit?

  27. wolves_simmo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Chelsea fans is James likely to feature in both games of GW19?

    1. InvertedWinger
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      I’d say he’s quite likely to play both. I know Azpi is fit but both our attacking fluidity and his interplay with Ziyech are big plus’ with Reece

      1. wolves_simmo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 28 days ago

        Thanks, stick with him then?

  28. Goonerly
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    Team is:

    Pope
    Targett - Dier - Robbo - Tierney*
    Salah - Bruno - Son*
    Bamford - Adams* - Watkins

    Which of these options sounds best? :

    A) Tierney + Son --> Stones/Ogbonna + KdB (-4)
    B Tierney + Son + Adams --> Stones/Ogbonna + KdB + Antonio
    C) Wildcard and get in more City/Chelsea/Leicester/West Ham etc.

    Thanks in advance!

    1. puhd
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      B with Stones

  29. La Roja
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    What to do here chaps?

    Martinez*
    Zouma* Pieters* Stones* Coufal*
    Foden* Salah* Bruno* Son
    Kane Bamford

    Forster Dallas DCL Romeu

    2.2m ITB and no FT

    A) DCL ➡ Firmino/Jesus -4
    B) Martinez ➡ Flappyhandski -4
    C) DCL ➡ Antonio -4
    D) Romeu ➡ Soucek -4 (bench Bamford)

    1. puhd
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 28 days ago

      A or C

  30. Marc Jobling
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 28 days ago

    McCarthy
    Dias, Targett, Taylor, Mitchell
    Salah, Bruno, Son, Grealish, Soucek
    Kane, Bamford, DCL

    1 free transfer, £0.2m itb

    What would you do here? Names I'm considering are De Bruyne, Antonio and Coufal.