Spot the Differential

Odegaard’s creativity can help provide FPL value in BGW29 and beyond

Blank Gameweek 29 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Arsenal, Fulham and Brighton and Hove Albion, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Martin Ødegaard

Can Martin Ødegaard live up to his potential and become a top FPL asset?
  • FPL ownership: 2.1%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: whu | LIV | shu | FUL | EVE

Martin Ødegaard (£6.0m) has made a real impact at Arsenal since joining from Real Madrid on loan in January.

The Norwegian international has now started seven of the Gunners’ last nine matches in all competitions, predominantly as a number 10, and has repaid his manager’s faith with important goals against Olympiacos and Tottenham Hotspur.

His displays have seen him become the focal point of the side, which is reflected in his numbers.

Since making his first league start last month, Ødegaard ranks first amongst team-mates for successful passes in the final-third and joint-top for chances created, while his total of four shots over the last two matches highlights his increasing goal threat. His ability to make himself free on the edge of the box is a really nice part of his game, and having taken a few corners too, there is lots to like.

Sunday’s 2-1 victory over Spurs in the north London derby leaves Mikel Arteta’s side 10 points adrift of the top four. However, a win against West Ham United this weekend would allow them to close the gap, and they have momentum. In fact, since Boxing Day, they sit fourth in the Premier League form table, having collected 27 points from their last 14 matches.

In a relatively short space of time, Ødegaard has become an integral part of this Arsenal side, and could be a useful budget differential for the run-in.

Tosin Adarabioyo

  • FPL ownership: 0.9%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: LEE | avl | WOL | ars | –

Fulham defender Tosin Adarabioyo (£4.5m) has been a crucial part of Fulham’s defensive improvement this season.

Before his arrival in October, the Cottagers had shipped 11 goals in their opening four matches of the campaign. However, they have gradually improved since, and have now conceded just five in their last eight outings. 

During that time, the 23-year-olds partnership with Dane Joachim Andersen (£4.5m) has helped Scott Parker’s side register five clean sheets, and with Alphonse Areola (£4.6m) excelling in goal, bringing in a Fulham defender this week could be a shrewd move.

Their opponents in Gameweek 29, Leeds United, have failed to score in four of their last five matches, while Adarabioyo’s threat from set-pieces could be another route to points, too. The centre-back has produced 15 headed attempts from set-plays this term, a team-leading total, which is particularly relevant given that defending dead-ball situations has been an achilles heel throughout Marcelo Bielsa’s time at Elland Road. 

It’s another huge game for Fulham, who currently sit in the relegation zone but can move up to 17th with a win. Beyond that, there are winnable matches against Aston Villa, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Burnley, Southampton and Newcastle United before the end of the season, so there is potential to hold their assets long-term.

Adarabioyo has established himself as a key player for Fulham this season, and with an FPL ownership of just 0.9%, could be a useful differential.

Danny Welbeck

Welbeck ready to profit from Brighton's appealing run of fixtures
  • FPL ownership: 0.4%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: NEW | mun | EVE | che | shu

Following the inclusion of Joël Veltman (£4.4m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Danny Welbeck (£5.5m).

After several substitute appearances, the 30-year-old returned to Brighton and Hove Albion’s starting XI last weekend and was central to their win, providing the assist for Leandro Trossard’s (£5.8m) second-half strike.

The former Manchester United and Arsenal forward has now been directly involved in five goals this term, despite being limited to just 15 appearances and eight starts. That suggests he can make a notable impact when on the pitch, and with Newcastle United up next, he could be worth a look.

The Magpies have been poor on the road this season, and have won just three of their 14 Premier League away games. During that time, only Leeds United have a worse expected goals conceded (xGC) total, while they also rank in the bottom three for attempts in the box and shots on target conceded.

While Brighton have often flattered to deceive under Graham Potter, the return of Adam Lallana (£6.2m) can help them kick on. Against Southampton, he was pulling the strings in a slightly deeper role, and if he can stay fit for the remainder of the season, then Albion’s survival chances will receive a massive boost.

Welbeck has a big role to play too, and could be a nice under the radar option in Blank Gameweek 29.

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942 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Ruinenlust
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 26 days ago

    Anyone else stuck with Coufal and Soucek instead of Cresswell and Lingard?

    1. JVALDEZ
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Yup hate it

  2. Ronnies
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 26 days ago

    Worth a -4 ?

    Son, Mitchell --> Lingard, Dunk

    Would give me 8 players.

    Cheers.

    1. wulfrunian
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      no

    2. Dirty Harry
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Yes

  3. wulfrunian
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 26 days ago

    Who is on penalties for Newcastle?

    1. Konstaapeli
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Wilson

    2. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Not sure, maybe Shelvey

  4. El Fenomeno R9
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 26 days ago

    Salah > Auba(C) for hit gamble?

    or go safer Odegaard or Lingard

    1. Better off with a pin and a…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Are those safer options than Auba? He's pretty sure to play this weekend, isn't he? I guess Odegaard getting rested last night might be a good sign.

      1. El Fenomeno R9
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        I think they both start 99.9% but not sure on Auba situation and Laca rested now

        1. Miro
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          I wouldn't be surprised if Auba doesn't start based on his recent perfermances and if he does, it might be at LW

  5. Hryszko
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 26 days ago

    Bottomed...

    Any help much appreciated?

    2FT, 5.8m in the bank so plenty to play with... At the moment, with Son out I'm only fielding 7 (if Dier plays)... Planning on WC'ing in 30/31 so any help much appreciated.

    Martinez
    Dier - Coufal - Dias
    Son - Soucek - Raph - Gundo
    DCL - Kane - Bamford

    Bench: Areola - Salah - Shaw - Stones

    1. Better off with a pin and a…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      I'd try and get a Brighton defender in, Dias->Dunk and maybe Gundo->Trossard/Gross or DCL->Maupay if you prefer. After that it's about how many hits you fancy. Son->Auba or Odegaard maybe?

  6. Nay08
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Please help me with a better combination for gw29 and gw30? because I probably will WC on 31

      A) 2 Defender, from Dallas, Dawson, Targett, Dunk
      B) 1 Midfielder, from Lingard, Trossard, Bale, Lookman

      it can be any other options, the options above are just my thinking.
      have 2 FT, but I don't mind taking the -4.

      Team Right now
      Martinez/Button
      Creswell/Cancelo/Dias/Pereira/Mitchell
      Salah/Son/Gundogan/Raphinha/B.Traore
      Kane/DCL/Bamford

      cheers

    • jlorgill1
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Who’s starting at the back for Spurs and villa do we think?

      1. Holmes
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Regu, Sanchez, Toby, Doherty

        Targett, Konsa, Mings, Cash/Elmo

      2. DBossman_2000
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Tanganga Rodon Toby Reg

        Cash Konsa Mings Targett

    • ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Lose Cancelo or Stones?
      Will only use them for GW30 as WC in 31

      1. 3 A
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Cancel .. O

      2. Nay08
          1 month, 26 days ago

          if budget is not a problem, i'd lose stones

      3. PompeyUpNorth!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Can anyone help me with this please?
        Thinking Gundo to Lingard
        Stones to veltman-4. Got 1.0 itb, no chips.
        Martinez (Areola)

        Stones Digne Dallas Shaw Cancelo

        Auba C Raph Gundo Bruno Salah

        Watkins Bam Antonio

      4. Karan14
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Sell Cancelo or Digne first?

        If I keep Digne this week will probably keep him for the next 2 weeks (CRY, bha) also.

        If I sell Digne this week then I'll be more tempted to sell Cancelo next week for Shaw or Rudiger.

        Thoughts?

        1. Christina.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Cancelo
          Digne has 33 fixture and dgw coming up

      5. SomeoneKnows
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Salah >
        A) Bale
        B) Aubameyang

        Grealish >
        A) Lingard
        B) Raphinha

      6. Jässi
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Captain:

        A) Kane: most obvious one, but surely even Kane will not play full 90 minutes after playing 120 minutes Thursday evening in Croatia?
        B) Dunk: nailed and will play full game no matter what, good percentage for clean sheet
        C) Bale: played only 60 minutes in Thursday, surely starts at least, maybe scores more goals without Son?
        D) Aubameyang: played 90 minutes in Thursday, could be rested?

        I'm leaning towards Dunk actually.

        1. DBossman_2000
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          B

      7. Ruinenlust
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Will Ooba stert?

      8. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Cresswell or Bale for the next 2 only?

      9. tabby98
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Martinez, Johnstone
        Stones, Cancelo, Dallas, Digne, Lowton
        Bruno, Son, Lingard, Gundo, Raphinha
        Kane, Bamford, Antonio

        1FT £2.5m ITB

        What should I do here guys? I'm planning to WC in 31

      10. Gazza2000
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Still on the fence on playing the FH chip or go with the lot below for -4...

        Areola
        Burn
        Raphinha Auba Son*
        Kane Antonio Bamford

      11. Buck The Trent
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Have 8 players this week. Which one do you prefer?

        A Son to Bale
        B Gundo to Bale

        1. Gazza2000
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          A

      12. Fernandito
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Trossard or Odegaard?

        gone off Bale or Auba

        1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          I’m thinking exactly the same mate!! Leaning towards Trossard!! Can easily bench him next week, I also have Cresswell so this impacted my decision if I get him!!

        2. Phlajo
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          I went Trossard, and sticking the armband on him too. Considered Odegaard and Lingard aswell.

          1. Little Red Lacazette
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Would you get him for a -4?

            1. Phlajo
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              Depends on who's going out. Trossard is having a hard fixture in 30, so I'm benching him there before WC31.

        3. Og
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Arsenal like to attack out wide so Odegars more likely to assist the assister.

        4. Christina.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Odegaard's creativity is crap tbh

        5. popey
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Trossard or Gross is the question - Gross set pieces and Trossard more attacking in open play

      13. Nesvy
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Last dilemma >>

        Martinez
        Dallas / Dunk
        Son - Lingard - Raphinha
        Kane - Bamford - Watkins

        a/ Dunk
        b/ Dallas

        Thanks

      14. Miro
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        A) Auba + Dunk
        B) Bale + Tierney

        Have 2 ars already, and no brighton defence

        1. Bobby Digital
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          A

        2. Phlajo
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          I prefer A by a mile there..

        3. Jambot
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          A

      15. Shark Team
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        I have to say that if Bamford could make an appearance in any training pic I was going to give him the amrband

        1. Well you know, Triffic
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          He will.

      16. Better off with a pin and a…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Seriously considering going properly differential on FH. Not sure I trust Spurs after the last 2 performances.

        Leno
        Dunk, Veltman, Tierney
        Trossard (C), Lingard, Odegaard (VC), Raphina
        Bamford, Antonio, Watkins

        Moura, Dallas, Lascelles, Darlow

        I need something like this to come off to make a difference!

        1. Phlajo
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          I like it. I'd probably gamble on Grealish with a differential FH

          1. Better off with a pin and a…
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            I was going to put him in with Watkins first sub, but I'm worried about a cameo from Grealish after so long out.

            1. Phlajo
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              Yeah, I'd have the same concern tbf. But I think IF Grealish can play, then he'll start. Watkins not worth much without Grealish either, so I think it's worth the punt (Again, you mention it's a differential FH 🙂

      17. Milkman Bruno
          1 month, 26 days ago

          How does this look?

          Sanchez
          Dunk, Veltman, Dallas
          Aubameyang, Bale, Lingard, Raphina
          Kane, Lacazette, Antonio

          Nipples, Odegaard, Cresswell, Aldereireld

          1. Better off with a pin and a…
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Solid. I'm not quite prepared to triple-up on any one defence, but it could well pay off.

        • DavidBadWillie
            1 month, 26 days ago

            I'm thinking of capping Dan Burn now that he may play. Newcastle are so bad don't think they'll score...

            1. DavidBadWillie
                1 month, 26 days ago

                Brighton have conceded 1 goal in the last 6 games v Newcastle so it is justified...

            2. Netters2018
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              Do we think Bale starts this weekend?

            3. pingissimus
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              Yay

              Really like the Adarabioyo and Wellbeck picks.

              1. Dark Side Of The Loon!
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 26 days ago

                You have been suggesting Adarabioyo.

                1. pingissimus
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 26 days ago

                  I was beginning to get a bit anxious about it as I think every other Fulham defence expert pick has been Andersen until now.

                  Are you going Brighton attack on FH? The more I think about it I really think either Wellbeck or Trossard is sensible. Think I'd pick either one over Arsenal who are away to West Ham. Huge disparity in defences there and Brighton attack has almost a good attacking XG as defensive XGC iirc.

                  1. Dark Side Of The Loon!
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 26 days ago

                    Thinking of going with this:

                    Dubravka
                    Cresswell Tierney Reguilon Dallas Dunk
                    Auba Bale Lingard
                    Antonio Kane

                    Darlow Laca Raph Trossard

            4. OLLY G
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              Bale or Raphinha?

              Thanks.

            5. PP6
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              (T)rossard?

              1. Phlajo
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 26 days ago

                o/

            6. Wolfman180
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              Thinking of taking a -4 to do Cancelo + Bruno to Dallas + Aub.
              Given that Son will almost certainly miss out for GW29 is a -8 worth it for say a Lingard?

            7. Fit_to_drop
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 26 days ago

              4.4m to spend on Defender (not Brighton) that plays this weekend and decent fixtures ahead