Pro Pundits

Ex-FPL winner Simon March: How to avoid getting carried away with your GW1 picks

Simon March Pro pundits

I’ll start with a short story. This time last season, Chelsea were spending money like they were Disney and, as a fan (of Chelsea, though I do like Disney too), it was hard not to get caught up in that excitement and to want to be part of it in every way possible. Of course, for me, this included picking as many as possible in my Fantasy Premier League team and, as a result, I tripled up on Chelsea assets with Timo Werner (£9.0m), Kai Havertz (£8.5m) and Reece James (£5.5m) all featuring in my Gameweek 1 team.

Of course, Chelsea went on to become champions of Europe, thus proving me 100% correct in my beliefs and to be a person of quite unnatural foresight and wisdom. So, thanks for reading, and tune in next time when I’ll be talking ab-

Okay, while Chelsea did indeed become champions of Europe, this eventual success was not necessarily reflected in their early-season performances or the output of their players from an FPL perspective. Don’t get me wrong, they weren’t terrible by any means, even the much-maligned Timo Werner was averaging about 5.0 points per game up until Gameweek 10. The problem was, they didn’t deliver consistently, sustainably and, crucially, as much as more established players (Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) was kind enough to make this point early on and immediately punish me for not picking him with a Gameweek 1 hat-trick).

Salah

Even then, I held on to my Chelsea assets, despite their declining output and emerging line-up uncertainties. I justified this to myself by their good run of fixtures which, surely, would get them back on track. When that didn’t happen, I convinced myself that, since other people were ditching their Chelsea players, the best thing for me to do ‘strategically’ would be to hold on to them so that, when they did eventually burst into life, they would offer the best possible source of differential points, thus propelling me up the table.

Of course, the opposite happened, Chelsea assets declined further, both in terms of points output and in value, which in turn reduced my options for transferring them out. The net effect was that I’d set the foundation for what was to become my worst ever fantasy football season. 

So what happened here and what can we learn from it?

429 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Ronnies
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    This is where I am at now;
    Too much money spent on Defenders ?

    Sanchez
    TAA Shaw Digne
    Salah Bruno Raphinha Buendia
    Ings Antonio Toney

    Foster White Ayling Brownhill

    Cheers.

    1. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      For me yes

    2. Emiliano Sala
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      No but don’t like digne personally

      1. farmerfat
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Why ?

        1. Nomar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          2 years, 9 months ago

          Doesn’t always have to be a great reason why.

        2. Emiliano Sala
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 9 months ago

          Think they will concede. Prefer awb/maguire

          1. o_ERF123
            • 2 Years
            2 years, 9 months ago

            double up on Man U?

    3. Your Man With The Hair
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Team looks good to me

    4. Double Daka
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Looks good to me. Instead of Ayling, Raphinha, Buendia and Toney I have Targett, Barnes, Jota and Obafemi

    5. PompeyUpNorth!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      How bizarre. I just did my first draft and it’s similar so I think it’s decent. All attacking defenders so why not? Digne has great fixtures

  2. Sickboy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    I’ve got to the stage where I’m weighing up Bruno and DLC versus Sancho and Lukaku.

    I should probably walk away for a while.

    1. Sickboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      DCL even, I should definitely stop now.

      1. Diaby Does Gallas 22
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        100%.... Bruno DCL > Sanch Luk all day

    2. farmerfat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Yeah when you weighing up players that arent even in the game , you should probably log off.

      1. Sickboy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        All about planning though 🙂

  3. Your Man With The Hair
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Does Ings arrival deminish the appeal of having Watkins?

    1. jammie26
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Villa normally play a front 3 with 1 central striker, gonna be wait and see for a while for me.

      1. Your Man With The Hair
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Could you see Watkins pushed out to the wing?

    2. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Think so

    3. Chazz69
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Watkins nailed imo.

    4. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      See how they lineup in final preseason game v Seville

  4. WHUFCSmith23
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    That was an excellent article. More of these please scout!!

  5. Make United Great Again
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    A. Robbo Antonio Harrison (Gilmour bench)

    B. Shaw Ings Raphinha (Obademi bench fodder)

    1. sirmorbach
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      B if you have TAA, A if you don't.

  6. sirmorbach
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Meslier (4.0)
    TAA / Shaw / Coufal (_________, _________)
    Salah / Bruno / Barnes / Raphinha / Buendía
    Bamford / _________ (4.5)

    A. Tierney, Veltman / Toney
    B. White, 4.0 / Watkins*
    C. White, Veltman / Wood

    *That's where I'm at now. Watkins *could* become Antonio/Ihenanacho, but I have concers over the first's injury-prone-ness and the latter's minutes.

  7. farmerfat
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Liverpool 11 to play in the first friendly today:
    Kelleher
    TAA Matip VVD Robbo
    Milner Keita
    Elliot
    Salah Jota Mane

    Can see the team on gw1 being very similar to this.

    1. sirmorbach
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Kelleher essential!

    2. Amartey Partey
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Is Firmino on the bench?

    3. AJ24
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Will be interesting to see how the centre back situation pans out, as that is a potential cheap way of getting into a top defence (usually)

    4. Emiliano Sala
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Don’t think vvd will start the season

      1. I Must Break You
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Why not if he's already playing in preseason?

    5. 3 A
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Elliot?

  8. Amartey Partey
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Why are people so convinced Liverpool will keep a clean sheet against Norwich? Norwich don’t seem to have any problem with scoring goals at Carrow Road.

    1. Gabbiadini
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      They are nowhere near as prolific when Buendia is absent. And now he's gone.

      1. Emiliano Sala
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Liverpool is not a pre season friendly

      2. Tomcon6
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Buendia gone ??

        1. o_ERF123
          • 2 Years
          2 years, 9 months ago

          villa

    2. 3 A
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Cantwell looks good tbh.
      But with Buendia gone, I'm become more sceptical with Pukki. Still dont suprise me if Liv concede one goal.

  9. AJ24
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Sanchez, Bachman
    Trent, Shaw, Digne, White, Ayling
    Salah, Sancho, Raphina, Bailey, Gilmour
    Cavani, Antonio, DCL

    0.0M ITB

    Unsure whether to go Buendia or Bailey, but that slot is for one of them.

    Thoughts please..

  10. sirmorbach
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Shaw + Antonio/Watkins/Iheanacho or Tierney + Ings?

    1. AJ24
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Shaw and 7.5m striker

      1. sirmorbach
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Cheers! If I may: am I too mistaken in keeping Watkins? I think first fixtures make it worth the gamble, and it's an easy swap if he disappoints too much. Besides, Antonio's fitness and Iheanacho's minutes are a concern for me as well..

        1. AJ24
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 9 months ago

          I was on the Watkins train and have now left. I am sure he will thrive, because he is a very good footballer, but for me there is a lot of unknown with how Villa will structure, Watkins, Ings, Bailey, Buendia, McGinn and even Traore and El Ghazi (who featured heavily last year). Currently on Cavani, DCL and Antonio, but may drop Antonio to Toney and spend the 1m elsewhere.

      2. Gabbiadini
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        option 1.

        1. sirmorbach
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 9 months ago

          Thank you, sir

  11. JELLYFISH
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Hi all, thoughts on this lot?

    Bachman
    TAA Digne White Ayling Livramento
    Salah Bruno Mahrez Bailey Raphina
    Ings Toney Obafemi

    (Obafemi > Origo if he goes to So'ton)

    1. Kante Touch This
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Reckon Livramento will be a starter for Southampton? Competing against Walker-Peters

      1. JELLYFISH
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Its a punt

  12. Oooo Matron
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Best 4.5 striker?

    1. Gabbiadini
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      probably Oba.

  13. Bottleandahalf
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Hi folks. What you think

    Pickford (Mc GOV)
    TAA Shaw Veltman (Ayling Manq)
    Barnes Salah Bruno Buendia (Cantwell)
    Watkins Toney Antonio

  14. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Do we think Iheanacho is nailed?

    1. Alisson WondHaaland
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      No, he didnt start the recent friendly. I think Rodgers is reverting to a 1 up top. Will become clearer after the community shield match though

    2. 3 A
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      I think he is nailed
      3-4-1-2

      Amartey 4.0! Soy Evans

      Castagne Ndidi Tielemans Thomas / Bertrand

      Maddison (Barnes)

      Nacho Vardy (ease in Daka)

      Or

      4231

      Vardy
      Barnes Maddy Nacho
      Tielemans Ndidi
      Thomas Soy Evans Castagne

      Just my prediction

  15. JONALDINHO
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Looks like VVD could be back for GW1. Trent and Robbo double up locked in

  16. Alisson WondHaaland
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Love this draft:

    Sanchez
    TAA Digne Shaw
    Salah Bruno Barnes Raph
    Ings Antonio Toney

    Foster White Brownhill Omo

    The Ings slot could change but we'll have a pre-season match in 2 days to see whether he's likely to start in GW1

  17. sirmorbach
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Am I too mistaken in keeping Watkins? I think first fixtures make it worth the gamble, and it's an easy swap if he disappoints too much. Besides, Antonio's fitness and Iheanacho's minutes are a concern for me as well.

    (I *could* go down the good old Chris Wood road...)

    1. Kante Touch This
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Will Ings start GW1?

      I'm tempted to build my team to start with Ings, but then swap to Watkins before the deadline and keep .5 ITB for Ings when I'm sure he's starting.

    2. WHUFCSmith23
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      I've given this a lot of thought today. Doesn't it seem more likely that Ings will start on the bench at the start of the season. Watkins will play up front as usual then when it gets to 70/75 minutes depending on the score, Villa could make an attacking change to 2 up front. Bailey/Traore/El Ghazi would come off and Ings would go on to partner Watkins. Buendia would go to the right. Worst case Watkins goes wide in the last 20 minutes.

      I don't think its panic stations.

      1. Lanley Staurel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Villa forums seem to think they both start.

  18. FPL Theorist
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Are people sleeping on the Leeds defensive issues? Everyone seems to still have Ayling. None of Cooper/Llorente/Firpo were in the squad yesterday.

    1. Alisson WondHaaland
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Yeah definitely an issue if Llorente is out. Also forced Ayling to Centre back. Feel like they could be whipping boys until they get their defenders back

    2. WHUFCSmith23
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      I don't usually like to make statements like this, but for me personally I think Leeds are a little overrated. They are fun to watch I give you that but they are fragile.

    3. @persecuted_by_mods
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Yes people are, without the players fit they are as porous as ever

      • Lanley Staurel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Going nowhere near their defence for the start of the season. I see regression, being found out and some traps in there. Even considering not having Raphinha dare i say!

    4. Andrew
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      How's this draft looking guys?

      Martinez (Foster)
      TAA Digne Shaw (Williams Manquilo)
      Salah Bruno Buendia Raphina (Bissouma)
      Antonio DCL Toney

    5. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Robbo and Coufal or Cancelo/Dias Chilwell?

      1. WHUFCSmith23
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        I want Chilwell in my team but just cant find the funds. If you have the funds for a 6m defender I wouldn't look anywhere else. I would imagine Chelsea will have the best defence this season and you can bet on him getting attacking returns.

        People will talk about rotation but there is no need for it, they aren't competing in the later stages of the Champions League at the beginning of the season.

    6. Sun God Nika
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Rate my Team

      Martinez
      Steer

      Shaw - Coufal - Digne - Trent - White
      Raphinha - Salah - Barnes - Fernandes - Bissouma
      Antonio - Cavert - Obafemi

      Any suggestions?

    7. Ook
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      What are people's thoughts on AWB over Shaw for a Man United defender until we see how quickly Shaw is back up and running? Feels like a safer option but not seeing him in a lot of teams?

      1. WHUFCSmith23
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        People have a subconscious bias that he offers no attacking potential, despite scoring 2 goals and getting 5 assists along with 13 clean sheets last season. At his age he will surely continue to improve. His assists total have gone up each season.

        It looks like Shaw and AWB are similar in quality BUT Shaw is a BPS magnet which AWB isn't.

    8. Bruisers FC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Is Nobel a viable 4.5 option in mid? Seems to be based on preseason.

      1. WHUFCSmith23
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Not at all. Rice and Soucek haven't returned yet

        1. Lanley Staurel
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          2 years, 9 months ago

          Soucek isnt back yet? WTF is he?!

    9. Lanley Staurel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      I will be rereading this article every day for the next week to keep me honest....

    10. Wizard of Ozil
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Sage advice from a master of the game. I`m a gooner but ever since Sanchez bought me success many moons ago, i haven't had any Arsenal players in my squad for ages. maybe a cheap defender on my bench like Holding for example. might change that this year with Mr White.. any concur?

      1. Rigid Digit
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        4.5m for regular starter (which I'm sure he will be with that price tag) and a fairly mean defence is a steal.
        Also going to hope Auba fires again after a disappointing last season (22 goals in 2 seasons each is no fluke, the fluke was last year)

    11. ThatsTheWeekendRuined
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      God knows what version I'm on now. I had the template for ages but now I'm going fairly big but creative in defence. I downgraded Raphina to Harrison on the bench.

      Thoughts?

      Sanchez
      TAA / Chilwell / Cancelo / Shaw / Coufal
      Salah / Bruno / Buendia
      Ings / Antonio

      Subs: Foster / Harrison / Gilmour / Obafemi

      1. SuperG
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Too much wonga on your bench. A couple of 4.5s and a 4.0 is all you need to A) maximise value in your team and B) minimise the horror of points left sitting on your bench while your first team blank

    12. SuperG
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Consistently the most interesting writer amount FFS’s stable. Good work Simon.

    13. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Great article as always. I think Buendia fits the category of being highly owned (within FFS) but unproven in the league. I'm not going near him. How can I pick someone that I've never seen play just because other people say he is good? Also fitting that category (for me) is Raphina. I'll try to watch him during his tough first four fixtures but right now, I'd just be copying.

    14. yakirh
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Why not much love for Havertz?

    15. Afro Magic
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Pickford
      Coufu soyunchu awb keane
      Soucek Bruno Mahrez
      Joelinton DCL cavani
      Bench
      Ederson
      Barnes hojberg dias