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The FPL players who are most underperforming their xG ahead of Gameweek 12

Among the underlying statistics on offer in our Members Area is expected goals (xG), which many will be familiar with already. 

Simply put, xG is the measure of a quality of shot based on criteria such as proximity to goal and angle of attempt. For example, a shot from inside the six-yard box will carry a higher xG than a speculative effort from 35 yards.

When these stats are collated for a player, you get an idea of how many goals they should be scoring.

However, it also gives us an opportunity to identify those who are underperforming in front of goal, via their xG delta. This is calculated by subtracting the xG figure from actual goals scored.

So, in this, our latest Fantasy Football Scout Members article, we’ve analysed the top xG underachievers in each respective category ahead of Gameweek 12. Ideally, we’d look at a player’s goalscoring expectation over a longer period of time, but focusing on this season’s data alone does reveal some interesting findings, which we’ll explore below.

FORWARDS

Scout Notes 4

601 Comments Post a Comment
  1. fusen
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Kanes goals this season

    4 v San Marino
    3 v Albania
    3 v Mura
    2 v Pacos Ferreira
    1 v Wolves
    1 v Mags

    Where do Leeds fit in that list?

    1. European Bob
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      5 v Leeds (c)

    2. Piggs Boson
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Spurs don't really have any players that give him good service.

      I reckon he'll score one.

    3. yousunkmybattleship
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Zero

  2. BrockLanders
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Gonna need a massive sofa to hide behind this weekend if you don't own Kane. Talk about running into form at just the right time. Gotta fear for Leeds now

    1. Steve The Spud
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Have a word with yourself, this is San Marino, we probably grind a 1 or 2-0 against Leeds

    2. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Good for his confidence but little else, Leeds have been tighter defensively of late and even ignoring that the Leeds that conceded 3/4 for a bunch of games in a row last season is still many moons ahead of San Marino

    3. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Scary pattern too: 3 goals vs. Albania, 4 goals vs. San Marino ... 5 goals vs. Leeds? 25 pointer!

      #essential

      1. European Bob
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Looks inevitable. Can't cheat maths

    4. European Bob
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      True dis

    5. Piggs Boson
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      I hope you have a big freezer. Catching lots of fish here.

    6. DycheDycheBaby
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Blank guaranteed now.

    7. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Its San bloody Marino mate 🙂

  3. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    What a week guys, first England score 5, then borris fixes global warming and now we’ve scored 6, juhuuuu

    1. European Bob
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Great time to be alive

    2. Gingerman
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      I'm gonna get myself a chicken bucket just to finish things off nicely

  4. The-Red-1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Too risky with no Trent?

    Ramsdale Foster
    Cancelo James Chilwell Livramento White
    Salah Son Foden Bowen Brownhill
    Kane Antonio Broja

    1. Yes Ndidi
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      No, but I reckon the time for double Chelsea has possibly passed.

    2. McGazza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      The lad has 6 assists and a goal in his last 3 games. Indicates decent potential for FPL upside.

  5. Legohair
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Ramsdale
    TAA-Chilwell-Rudiger
    Salah-Son-Raphinha-Mbeuomo
    Jesus-Jimenez-Antonio

    Sanchez, Livramento,ESR, Williams
    1 FT 0.2 itb
    A. Rudiger to James
    B. Sanchez to Foster
    C. Save

  6. Will Kane
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Thank God there's some snooker on the other side. Mind you that's going to be 6-0 as well in a minute

    1. European Bob
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Kane will (score 5 v Leeds)

      1. Rupert The Horse
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        I honestly believe Leeds are better than San Marino.

        1. Gingerman
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          Just

          1. Jimmers
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            2 years, 5 months ago

            Spurs are not much better than San Marino

        2. European Bob
          • 11 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          He'll have an extra half an hour against them though, should even it out

  7. Isca Extremadura
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Won only one game ever v Lux
    Population only 34k mind !

    1. European Bob
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Luxembourg are a decent outfit. Beat Ireland didn't they who beat Italy who are European champions

  8. Isca Extremadura
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    * qualifier

  9. Isca Extremadura
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    This…Exactamo

    1. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Are you ok?

  10. Paqueta Rice
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    4 - Harry Kane is the fourth player to score a hat-trick for England in consecutive appearances, after Vivian Woodward (1909), Dixie Dean (1927) and Tommy Taylor (1957). Feat.

    Still has to be put into perspective though, Albania and San Marino but well done all the same.

    1. No Professionals
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Copy. Paste.

      1. Paqueta Rice
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah from BBC sport.

      2. European Bob
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks Simon. Hit cancel, got it

  11. Piggs Boson
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Chillwell, Gallagher, Tammy on.
    Maguire, Foden, Phillips off.

    Foden safe, but Chilly and Gallagher's turn to risk their hammys.

    1. RogDog_jimmy
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Happy for Gallagher to get a run out as a new owner this GW.
      A goal here he might bump up in value again and also must be cool to make your national team debut.

      Chilly take it ease please.

  12. Revival
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Transferred in Gallagher early last week cause he didn't have any international matches to worry about.

    1. RogDog_jimmy
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Lol. I kinda did but more for the price rises.

    2. @persecuted_by_mods
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Need to do better research then 🙂

      • Paqueta Rice
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Gallagher always did have international matches to worry about though?

    3. Revival
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Swiss goal = trouble for Italy

      1. amonito
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        I'm a Bulgarian, believe me, Italy has no chance for top spot! Switzerland will score more.

    4. Kellz86
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      2 FT this week

      Do… do I dare to go Kane?

      1. Kellz86
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Currently in top 21k

        Feel like this is a moment to make or break

      2. European Bob
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        I've done it

        1. European Bob
          • 11 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          And in the top 5k somewhere

          1. Kellz86
            • 6 Years
            2 years, 5 months ago

            I have exact in the bank to do Vardy to Kane saving rolling 1FT as I don’t have any other pressing needs.

            1. European Bob
              • 11 Years
              2 years, 5 months ago

              Yeah I had to do Vardy to Kane on the Friday before Kane went up to 12.2

              1. Kellz86
                • 6 Years
                2 years, 5 months ago

                Pulled the trigger

      3. BERGKOP
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        In your position, yes.

        1. Kellz86
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          It’s done, can roll a FT to next week to have 2 for any alterations

    5. Piggs Boson
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Kane off, James on

      Only 4 goals.

      1. Paqueta Rice
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah, not good enough. Might hold off for now 😉

    6. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Whens Cancelo coming on might as well put my whole defence out there

      1. European Bob
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        San Marino could do with a few of him

    7. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Ramsdale Foster
      TAA Cancelo Chilwell White Livramento
      Salah Foden Raphinha Mbuemo Brownhill
      Kane Antonio Toney
      2ft. 0.8 itb
      Might just burn a transfer or sell Mbuemo for Gallagher. Its Newcaste though for Mbuemo!

    8. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Scots or Welsh about to get Italy in the play offs

      1. CrouchDown
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        How does the draw work?

        1. European Bob
          • 11 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          Who knows, they made it so confusing it'll probably be done in alphabetical order

        2. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
          • 10 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          10 runners up and best 2 from nations league. That 12 split into 3 pots of 4. Semi and final will produce 3 teams that make it

          1. CrouchDown
            • 11 Years
            2 years, 5 months ago

            Makes sense, thanks

            Some big sides to miss out then

    9. Piggs Boson
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      TAA assist

      8-0

    10. Eastman
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Which keeper(s) on a wildcard?

      1. Revival
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Ramsdale or Guaita with Foster as back up

    11. Steve The Spud
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Ffs just blew it up ref and let’s go home

    12. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      How long is Firmino out for? Any idea anyone?

      1. Jimmers
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        3/4 weeks

    13. Isca Extremadura
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Refs had a bet on 8 -0

      1. European Bob
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Abraham booking double up

    14. manu4life99
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      2FT, £0.0itb

      A) Jimi, Semedo > Wilson,Reguilion
      B) Rudiger,Semedo > James,Livramento
      C) Any other ideas?

      Sanchez* Steele
      TAA Cancelo Rudiger Semedo Tierney
      Salah Son Foden Mbuemo Sissoko
      Jimi Antonio Toney

    15. gooberman
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Another pathetic decision by this referee to disallow that goal.

    16. Dthinger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      how do you get a red card in a 9-0 match? At that point, who is even trying hard enough that they could get a card?

    17. ZakyJ
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Ok so this is my WC team.

      Guaita Foster
      TAA Chilwell James Cancelo Livra
      Salah Foden Raph Gallagher ESR
      Kane Hwang Broja

      But iv been wanting to get Jota in.

      Only way I think I can do that is Chilwell & ESR > Johnson & Jota.

      Should I stick or Twist?

    18. Revival
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Ref should just stop it once the 10th goal goes in

    19. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Robertson limping off. Tsimikas may be back on agenda

      1. gooberman
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        instead of Jota?

      2. Crunchie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Damn there goes my Origi plans 🙂

    20. gooberman
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      TAA racking up the assists.