Members

The FPL players who are most underperforming their xG ahead of Gameweek 12

Among the underlying statistics on offer in our Members Area is expected goals (xG), which many will be familiar with already. 

Simply put, xG is the measure of a quality of shot based on criteria such as proximity to goal and angle of attempt. For example, a shot from inside the six-yard box will carry a higher xG than a speculative effort from 35 yards.

When these stats are collated for a player, you get an idea of how many goals they should be scoring.

However, it also gives us an opportunity to identify those who are underperforming in front of goal, via their xG delta. This is calculated by subtracting the xG figure from actual goals scored.

So, in this, our latest Fantasy Football Scout Members article, we’ve analysed the top xG underachievers in each respective category ahead of Gameweek 12. Ideally, we’d look at a player’s goalscoring expectation over a longer period of time, but focusing on this season’s data alone does reveal some interesting findings, which we’ll explore below.

FORWARDS

Scout Notes 4


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Join now to get the following:

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avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/818/history”

601 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Mr Ozil
    • 7 Years
    20 days, 18 hours ago

    Why all that love for Jota? Is that because Mane' and Firmino are both injured?

    1. DannyDrinkVodka
      • 2 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      Pretty much……mostly Firmino

    2. Colonel Shoe 肝池
      • 10 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      yep......think id still prefer foden tho

      1. Mr Ozil
        • 7 Years
        20 days, 18 hours ago

        same here

      2. Rassi
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        20 days, 18 hours ago

        The busy season is here so Pep will pep a lot.

        That being said I don't own neither Jota nor Foden.

    3. Rassi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      He is a 7.5 M OOP probably spearheading the best attack in the league for the next several weeks.

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        20 days, 18 hours ago

        Yea, first Firmino out, then Afcon soon and fixtures are at least decent. I went for Jesus over Foden, not so much between them statistically and lack of other forwards was deciding factor. Jota, Foden and or Kane are my possible next targets. Having both Jesus and Foden feels too risky without full bench.

      2. Ooh Ah Cantona
        • 1 Year
        20 days, 18 hours ago

        It's been the best attack so far, but theyre now missing 2/3 of their attack.

        1. FourLokoLeipzig
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          20 days, 18 hours ago

          Mane’s injury isn’t thought to be serious based on the articles I’ve read

    4. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      Firmino yes

  2. FCSB
    • 5 Years
    20 days, 18 hours ago

    Ramsdale
    TAA Cancelo James Chilwell
    Salah Foden Raphinha Mbeumo
    Jimenez Antonio

    Foster Vardy Livramento Brownhill

    2 FT, 0.0 itb

    1. Vardy + Brownhill >> Son + FWD fodder [4.8 budget] (Davis)
    2. Brownhill Vardy >> Jota Wilson

    Thanks

    1. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      2

    2. Exxtreme
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      19 days, 11 hours ago

      Vardy is biggest fpl troll, as soon as you drop him, he will at least brace.

  3. RWB_1991
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    20 days, 18 hours ago

    Brandon Williams & Greenwood > Cancello & Cornet for a 4 point hit?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      Yes but prefer Gallagher to Cornet

  4. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    20 days, 18 hours ago

    Assuming Steele replaces Sanchez for Brighton this weekend, should I start:

    A) Ramsdale (liv)
    B) Steele (avl)

    1. The Knights Template
      • 8 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      Tough one Miguel!

      1. The Knights Template
        • 8 Years
        20 days, 18 hours ago

        It's B for me after considerable thought.

    2. tokara
      • 7 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      A for saved points

    3. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      B

    4. Ooh Ah Cantona
      • 1 Year
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      I'd definitely do Ramsdale for two reasons. Pool are missing two first choice strikers, and the unwritten rule in FPL that you should always play the first choice GK over your 4m playing reserve despite the fixture.
      (Think Ramsdale Vs Leicester and Guita Vs Man City)

      1. Brehmeren
        • 11 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        Mane should be fine.

    5. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      Tough one but Steele more likely to keep cs, so him. Ramsdale could haul, but the problem with Jota is that he either scores or shoots off the target.

    6. 1zverGGadeM
      • 4 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      Ramsdale

    7. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      Cheers all, B definitely feels like overthinking things somewhat

    8. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      B

  5. Little Red Lacazette
    • 5 Years
    20 days, 18 hours ago

    Would you sell Foden for Son? Already have Kane.

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      No - way too soon to double up on Spurs

      1. tokara
        • 7 Years
        20 days, 18 hours ago

        shhhhh

      2. Little Red Lacazette
        • 5 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        Guaita best sub 4.8M keeper?

    2. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      No. I don’t think it’s too soon to double up, but I wouldn’t want to lose Foden

    3. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      Why not, what could possibly go wrong?!? Well, if chasing big time and nothing else to do, it's a plan. Worked last year, may or may not work this year.

    4. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      No

  6. sovietrockettes
    • 2 Years
    20 days, 18 hours ago

    Ramsdale Foster
    TAA Cancelo Dias James Livramento
    Salah Foden ESR Mbeumo Brownhill
    Vardy Antonio Toney
    2FT 1.9 ITB

    A) Vardy>Kane
    B) Vardy> Davis, Brownhilll> Son

    B sets up Mbeumo>Jota for next week

    1. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      I came here to ask a similar question that basically gave me B (either with Jota for a hit this week or add Jota next week)

      Therefore I suppose B

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        20 days, 18 hours ago

        Jota + Son over Kane + Mbeumo sounds much healthier pick long term. English fans want Kane now like they wanted Grealish not so long ago.

    2. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      A

  7. Seekers of Glory
    • 2 Years
    20 days, 18 hours ago

    Guys any feedback on the wildcard will be appreciated!

    Guaita (Foster)
    TAA Cancelo James Reguillon (White)
    Salah Jota Foden Cornet (Brownhill)
    Kane Wilson (Davis)

    0.2 itb. Is it G2G or anyone key missing?

    1. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      Cornet has AFCON, but you will have a lot of time to sell him before that. That is one factor why I wouldn't get him in now.

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        20 days, 18 hours ago

        Having Kane costs you Son and having no Chilly, but next Che fixtures aren't nice, so I guess it's g2g. Wouldn't be my team, but that difference and all other picks besides Reguillon and Cornet would be in my WC team. So it looks good.

        1. Baps hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          20 days, 18 hours ago

          Well, I don't think White would be in my team either, but he is a solid pick.

  8. La Roja
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    20 days, 18 hours ago

    Would you sell Ronaldo for Kane this week? (For free transfer)

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      It’s not urgent

    2. The Reptile
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      Same dilemma for me - scared to do it in case he hauls away to Watford..

    3. KunDogan (B.D.)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      Prefer Ronaldo against Watford

    4. FantasyClub
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        I would not

      • Camzy
        • 11 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        No. But maybe next week.

      • Snooze ya lose
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        No

      • Ranger3
        • 5 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        No

    5. Mrs W
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      I have Sanchez and Raya….should I take a -4 to bring in a playing gk for Raya (I’ve already used my 2ft for Kane and Gallagher) or just wing it with a non playing gk? My plan was to play Sanchez every week until the next wildcard and forget about bench gk. I only have 4.5 to spend so replacements are looking a bit meh.

      1. The Big Fella
        • 5 Years
        20 days, 18 hours ago

        No but if you insist just go for Steele.

        1. Baps hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          20 days, 17 hours ago

          I would get Steele only if I could use that money well elsewhere. And there is always small risk that Sanchez gets small injury or illness.

          1. The Big Fella
            • 5 Years
            20 days, 17 hours ago

            In which case Steele would play

    6. tbos83
      • 1 Year
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      It's easy to get warped by reading these comments. Eg feels like everyone is rushing for Kane on here but irl Ronaldo is far higher owned and will hurt you much more if he hauls. Plus fixtures are better after next week.

      1. KunDogan (B.D.)
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        Agreed, it is the herd mentality, the herd always has a couple of targets and anything else cannot be considered… 🙂

    7. 1zverGGadeM
      • 4 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      Williams to Tsimikas with 1ft and 0.2 itb a no brainer with Robbo out, right?
      Salah and Trent in the team too.

      1. Colonel Shoe 肝池
        • 10 Years
        20 days, 18 hours ago

        Depends how long robbo is out for and whether you'd play him and taa.
        Could be left with non playing bench fodder taking up a pool spot if you're not careful

    8. Bishopool
      • 10 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      Any chance Vardy will surprise Chelsea?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        20 days, 18 hours ago

        A chance but Tuchel has used Reece James to keep him quiet the last two game against Leicester

      2. Mr. O'Connell
        • 9 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        Depends how many price drops he has. His returns that week are usually inversely proportionally to net transfers out.

      3. Snooze ya lose
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        Doubtful

    9. George James
      • 6 Years
      20 days, 18 hours ago

      Best option?

      A) Antonio + Son

      B) Kane + Gallagher -4

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        20 days, 18 hours ago

        A

      2. waltzingmatildas
        • 11 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        A

      3. Snooze ya lose
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        A

    10. Mahjongking
      • 5 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      Havertz and antonio to son and armstrong for -4 and capt son

      Or havertz and vardy to kane and gallagher and capt kane?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        Kane(c) and Gallagher

      2. Snooze ya lose
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        B

    11. Jafooli
      • 9 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      Sarr, Gray & Jansson > Raphine, ESR & Dier for -4pts?

      1. Jafooli
        • 9 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        Or Tsimikas instead of Dier, if Robbo is oot....

        1. waltzingmatildas
          • 11 Years
          20 days, 17 hours ago

          Yeah decent moves, all upgrades

          1. Jafooli
            • 9 Years
            20 days, 17 hours ago

            Cheers Waltzing

    12. Trebor Allsorts
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      Who doesn’t love a 4.0m defender and I NEED one to fund my Kane move.
      Who is guaranteed the most playing time over the next 6 weeks?
      A) - Johnson. Risk of Coufal coming back in.
      B) - Omobamidele. Will Norwich keep clean sheets?
      C) - Tsimikas. Depends on how long Robertson could be out for.
      D) - Manquillo. Dropped for last Newcastle game. Will Howe bring him back in?

      1. Ooh Ah Cantona
        • 1 Year
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        B is the safest. He'll be your fifth player, so you shouldn't expect more than 2 points, which he's prefect for. As you know, the others you mentioned are rotation risks

    13. waltzingmatildas
      • 11 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      Guaita Foster
      TAA Cancelo Chilwell Duffy Livra
      Salah Foden Raph Mbeumo Normann
      Kane Antonio Toney
      2fts, 0.2itb

      A) burn ft
      B) Duffy to 3.9 def (allows Mbeumo or Toney upgrade next week)
      C) Duffy to Dier/White/Lowton
      D) Toney to Wood/Benteke

      1. mentaculus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        D with Benteke. I will be making that exact move next week

        1. waltzingmatildas
          • 11 Years
          20 days, 17 hours ago

          Yeah, next week looks perfect for it. Just reluctant to do it this week with newcastle

      2. Ooh Ah Cantona
        • 1 Year
        20 days, 16 hours ago

        Raph - Gallagher
        Toney - Wilson
        For Newcastle's short term fixtures in the next few, but now Ive written and looked at it, it could be a downgrade

    14. Kloppage Time
      • 6 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      I´m a Salah & TAA owner but I am a bit reluctant to triple up on Jota when there are so many current injuries, Robertson now injured to join Mane, Henderson, Milner, Firmino, will there perfomance suffer?

      1. Jude Rooney
        • 8 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        Don't think many of those are serious injuries.

      2. Snooze ya lose
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        Do it

    15. Camzy
      • 11 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      Bit of a weird question but building a FanTeam wildcard.

      A) Emerson + Cathcart
      B) Dier + Ward

      Extremely sexy choices as you can see 😛

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        A

    16. Karan14
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      How does this team look from GW13 onwards?

      Sanchez
      TAA James Cancelo Reguilon
      Salah Jota Foden
      Kane Antonio Toney

      (4.0 Livra Brownhill Sissoko)

      Is the bench too weak?

      Will shift to 4 in midfield when I have couple of FTs in GW15/16 by selling Toney is he is still underperforming
      Also plan to get Ronaldo for Kane in GW16

      Thoughts?

    17. Jude Rooney
      • 8 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      2 FT Havertz and Vardy are going, do I get

      A. Son and Jesus
      B Kane and Trossard

      Or any better suggestions?

      1. Ooh Ah Cantona
        • 1 Year
        20 days, 16 hours ago

        Yes Trossard has scored a couple of goals recently, but he's just so dull to own.

    18. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      We GTG this GW? Play Vardy over anyone? Steele (avl) in for Ramsdale (liv)? Captain Kane?

      Ramsdale
      TAA Chilwell James *Livramento
      Salah(c) Gallagher Mbeumo Sarr
      Kane Antonio

      Steele Vardy Duffy Sissoko 0FT 0.5 ITB

      1. Jude Rooney
        • 8 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        Play Vardy over Livra and Sarr

      2. Camzy
        • 11 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        I'd play Vardy over Sarr.

    19. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      Who to ditch for taa?

      White
      Duffy

      1. Jude Rooney
        • 8 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        Duffy

      2. Camzy
        • 11 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        Easy Duffy.

    20. Pep Roulette
      • 4 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      Would you do Havertz to Foden for -4?

      1. Jude Rooney
        • 8 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        Not a fan of taking hits but a good transfer

    21. Ranger3
      • 5 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      Please Help !
      A) Vardy, Toney --> Kane,Hwang
      B) Vardy, Havertz --> Kane, Gallaguer

      1. 3 Girls 1 Schlupp
        • 7 Years
        20 days, 17 hours ago

        B

    22. 3 Girls 1 Schlupp
      • 7 Years
      20 days, 17 hours ago

      Please recommend:
      A. Vardy VS CHE(H)+4
      B. Ronaldo VS Watford(A)
      C. Kane VS Leeds (H)

      Have exact cash to get Ronaldo. Need to catch up in mini league. Thinking of captaining whoever I get for Vardy.

      1. Ooh Ah Cantona
        • 1 Year
        20 days, 16 hours ago

        I'd expect Ronaldo to score V Watford
        I'd be pleasantly surprised if Kane scored V Leeds.
        I'd be shocked if Vardy scored V Chelsea

    23. Bojack Horseman
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      20 days, 15 hours ago

      Nice article.

    24. Fpl_Ludwig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      16 days, 16 hours ago

      Raph ——-> Bernardo silva for free?

      1. Fpl_Ludwig
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        16 days, 16 hours ago

        Or raph to Jota?