What can FPL managers expect from £6.5m forward Wout Weghorst?

There has been only one new addition to the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) forward pool after the closure of the January transfer window – and that man is Burnley’s new signing, Wout Weghorst (£6.5m).

Having sold Chris Wood (£6.7m) to Newcastle United earlier in the month, the Clarets have bolstered their striking options with the capture of the Netherlands international from VfL Wolfsburg for a fee of around £12m.

Armed with an eye-catching goalscoring record, a made-for-Burnley build (he’s 6’6″), and as-yet-unannounced Double Gameweeks aplenty, Weghorst has received more attention from FPL managers than you’d usually expect for a Sean Dyche acquisition.

We’ll look over the 29-year-old Dutch hitman in this Scout Report to get a better picture of what the Fantasy community can expect.

THE HISTORY AND STATS

Above: Wout Weghorst’s league appearances and attacking returns from 2014/15 onwards (via WhoScored)

Starting his senior career with Emmen in his homeland, Weghorst hit 20 goals in 62 appearances in the second tier of Dutch football before moving onto Heracles in July 2014.

That modest goalscoring record is put into some perspective when it’s made clear that 36 of those run-outs were off the bench and it was Weghorst’s minutes-per-goal ratio, coupled with the ability to score ‘meaningful’ strikes, that led to Heracles snapping him up.

“The model identified his ability to be in the right place at the right time, illustrated by his points-per-goal ratio being unusually high despite his lack of playing time. He was scoring important goals to put his side in the lead or equalise.” – Andy Jones in The Athletic on why Weghorst came to the attention of Heracles’ data providers, SciSports

Weghorst went on to net 51 times in 124 league games for Heracles and then AZ Alkmaar, who he joined in summer 2016.

Naturally, Eredivisie goalscoring figures have to be taken with a pinch of salt; for every Luis Suarez, we’ve had five Jozy Altidore types who have flattered to deceive in the Premier League.

But the towering centre-forward furthered his reputation when stepping up a class to the Bundesliga, plundering 59 goals in 118 league appearances for Wolfsburg over the past three and a half seasons.

The Dutchman hit the 20-goal mark in the German top flight in 2020/21 and has also contributed 19 assists since signing for Wolfsburg in 2018.

A bit like Wood, who has toiled in 2021/22 after hitting 10+ goals in each of his past four campaigns, Weghorst’s form has tailed off a bit this season: four of his seven attacking returns arrived by Matchday 5 of the Bundesliga. He also failed to score in any of Wolfsburg’s Champions League group games, although it should be said that the German side as a collective are struggling, hovering just above the drop zone at the time of writing after finishing fourth in 2020/21. No side in the Bundesliga has scored fewer goals this season.

The giant targetman has scored twice in 12 appearances for the Netherlands national side and Fantasy managers playing the Euro 2020 game last summer would have briefly crossed paths with him, as he was a semi-popular option at the beginning of the tournament.

WHY HAS HE ENDED UP AT BURNLEY?

No offence meant to Burnley or their fans but how has one of Germany’s most prolific strikers ended up swapping Lower Saxony for Lancashire?

Why he left Wolfsburg is probably the most straightforward part, with ‘deserting a sinking ship’ coming to mind given that the Bundesliga outfit are battling against relegation and labouring under head coach Florian Kohfeldt. Weghorst was in the final 18 months of his contract and had also previously gone on record to say that he had always dreamed of playing in the Premier League, meanwhile, so now he finally gets his opportunity to impress.

As for how he ended up at Turf Moor, perhaps his relative lack of goals (it’s still far from being a drought) this season and age has put off a few suitors but it’s another, more topical issue that has apparently played a big part.

German newspaper Bild reported that Weghorst’s Covid vaccination status had a key say in his exit and destination, with Burnley one of the few clubs in the UK undeterred by it.

PLAYING STYLE: WHAT KIND OF FORWARD IS WEGHORST?

Wood 2.0 or something a bit different?

Weghorst’s physical attributes will immediately invite lazy comparisons with his Kiwi predecessor and there’s no doubting that his height and build will have been a major selling point for Burnley.

A pound-shop Harry Kane (£12.3m) might be a more suitable analogy, however, at least according to Bundesliga reporter Stefan Bienkowski.

“There’s little doubt that Weghorst is a traditional target man who can happily play with his back to goal if called upon, but he can also play as a very effective No. 9 too.”

“His sheer physicality should help a lot in the Premier League. He’s also got an excellent eye for goal and is rarely wasteful in front of goal. I know Burnley aren’t the most attack-minded team in the league but he should score goals for them.”

“It wasn’t so long ago that he was being linked with a move to Tottenham as a potential replacement to Harry Kane. And while I’m not sure he’s as good as the England striker, they are similar types of players.

“Or at least Weghorst is like the younger Kane, when he was still a No. 9. There are definitely are similarities to Wood but I think Weghorst is probably a much better player and a more natural goalscorer. Burnley would have probably signed a really ideal replacement.” – Stefan Bienkowski, speaking to Lancashire Live

A forward described as “playing with his back to goal” is usually a bit of a warning sign to Fantasy managers but an ability to couple that deeper link-up play with more predatory penalty box instincts, as Kane has done time and time again, ought to provide two different routes to FPL points.

“It seems like a pretty big upgrade on Chris Wood to me. He has the size and is very good in the air but he’s an all-round footballer as well. He can drop off and play in between the lines and he’s an excellent finisher.

“People see his height and presume he’s someone who flicks it on, wins the ball in the air and who you throw balls into the box for, but he’s better than that.

“He presses the ball really well – which is what everyone in the Bundesliga needs to do – and it feels like an excellent fit.” – Bundesliga journalist Matt Pearson, speaking to the i newspaper

His aggression, outspokenness and intelligent pressing from the front have earned him loose comparisons with Jamie Vardy (£10.3m) in terms of attitude and mentality, meanwhile, even if those attributes are not as relevant to us FPL bosses.

“Holland’s taller, chunkier answer to Jamie Vardy — minus the bit with the electronic tag and the Skittles-flavoured vodka — still plays like he’s got a point to prove in every match. He flies into tackles, wins more headers than almost anyone and frequently tops his team’s charts for most distance covered.” – German football expert Rafael Honigstein, writing in the Athletic in June 2020

WEGHORST’S UNDERLYING STATS

Of encouragement to Weghorst’s potential buyers in FPL are his shot statistics.

All 59 of his Bundesliga goals (and 90% of his attempts) came from within the opposition area, with 12 of them being despatched from inside the six-yard box.

The Athletic’s shot map graphics above show Weghorst’s love of a close-range effort, something that Wood also had a fondness for while at Burnley:

Eleven of Weghorst’s goals at Wolfsburg came from the penalty spot, so with Wood now gone and Ashley Barnes (£5.2m) far from assured of game-time even when fit, it could be that the new Burnley striker is also on spot-kick duties at his new club – although he has missed 10 of his 27 career penalties!

A further 11 of the Dutch forward’s 59 Bundesliga goals came via his head, a Dyche-approved method of finding the back of the net.

Above stats for Weghorst taken from fbref (xG = expected goals, xA = expected assists)

Apart from his current below-par campaign, Weghorst has performed well in terms of shot-to-goal conversion (anything around the 20% mark is commendable) and xG overachievement.

Wood’s own conversion stats were quite similar at Burnley during his four 10+ goal campaigns, although his replacement has the edge on the xG front. Both strikers, as previously mentioned, have been below par this season.

Above: Premier League forwards sorted by xG per 90 minutes in 2021/22. Image taken from the Fantasy Football Scout Premium Members Area.

If he was to reproduce a figure of about 0.50 xG per game, Weghorst would be up there with the leading FPL forwards (even allowing for the minor differences in expected goals models) – the big question now is if Burnley can supply him with enough service.

WHERE WEGHORST FITS IN AT BURNLEY

This should be an easy one.

Weghorst’s arrival is bad news for Matej Vydra, Ashley Barnes and Jay Rodriguez (all £5.2m), with a strike partnership of the Dutchman and Maxwel Cornet (£5.9m) likely to be Dyche’s preferred option up top.

Barnes is still recovering from a thigh problem anyway, while Vydra may need hernia surgery.

Cornet did start the season playing out wide in the Clarets’ 4-4-2 but concerns over his capacity to carry out the defensive side of the game led to Dyche redeploying the Ivorian in a second striker role.

WILL BURNLEY CREATE ENOUGH CHANCES FOR HIM?

Like Wolfsburg, Burnley have struggled for goals this season.

Only Norwich City have scored on fewer occasions (16) than the Clarets, who also rank 18th for minutes per chance and minutes per expected goal (xG).

Dyche’s side are, however, fourth for minutes per cross, which should play to Weghorst’s aerial strengths.

Looking at Wood’s underlying stats over the last four campaigns, he didn’t quite enjoy the service that Weghorst did in Germany, with the New Zealander’s shots and xG per 90 minutes generally down on those of his replacement.

IS WEGHORST WORTH BUYING IN FPL?

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